Interesting trio
An interesting group of young pitchers started for their respective teams yesterday. If I were to ask you to say one thing about Carlos Zambrano, Matt Riley and Cliff Lee, you might say the following:
Zambrano is an up-and-coming major-league pitcher, Lee is an impressive prospect and Riley is a former top prospect. While those would pretty much be accurate, it's interesting to note the ages of the three pitchers.
Zambrano is the youngest at 22 years old, Riley just turned 24 years old and Lee just turned 25 years old. Of the three, Riley is probably the pitcher most people know the least about.
Drafted by the Orioles in the third round of the 1997 draft, Riley didn't pitch professionally until 1998, when he had a 1.19 ERA, 136 strikeouts (14.75 K/9IP) and 44 walks (4.77 BB/9IP) in 83 innings for Delmarva in the Class A South Atlantic League. He obviously wasn't a real polished pitcher, but he had great stuff.
It was that stuff that allowed him to move up in the Orioles system quickly, maybe too quickly.
In 1999, Riley started the year at Frederick in the Class A Carolina League and posted a 2.61 ERA with 58 strikeouts (10.10 K/9IP) and 14 walks (2.44 BB/9IP) in 51.2 innings. After that, he moved up to Bowie of the Class AA Eastern League and had a 3.02 ERA with 131 strikeouts (9.38 K/9IP) and 42 walks (3.01 BB/9IP) in 125.2 innings.
Having already pitched 177.1 innings that year at the tender age of 20, the Orioles decided to call him up to pitch 11 more innings in the major leagues. Riley struggled, allowing nine runs on 17 hits and 13 walks with just six strikeouts.
The next year, injuries struck. Riley pitched just seven innings in 2000 (for Rochester of the Class AAA International League) and did not pitch at all in 2001. If that didn't take away his prospect status completely, the fact that he was also thought of as immature and having an attittude problem did.
Last year, Riley finally returned and he still had his control problems, but he no longer had the amazing strikeout rate to go with it. In 109.1 innings at Bowie, Riley posted a 6.34 ERA with 105 strikeouts (8.64 K/9IP) and 48 walks (3.95 BB/9IP).
Having fallen completely off the map, Riley finally started to make progress towards a real big-league career this season. He started this season at Bowie again and had a 3.11 ERA with 73 strikeouts (9.08 K/9IP) and 23 walks (2.86 BB/9IP) in 72.1 innings when he was promoted to Ottawa of the Class AAA International League. There he posted a 3.58 ERA with 77 strikeouts (9.85 K/9IP) and 28 walks (3.58 BB/9IP) in 70.1 innings.
With the IL season and playoffs complete, Riley made his first major-league appearance in about four years yesterday. He finally picked up his first big-league win, allowing two run on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts in five innings against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Riley obviously still needs to improve his control, but he's still young, he still has good stuff and he's still left-handed. All of which means that he can definitely be a part of Baltimore's starting rotation next season. He's not a top prospect anymore, but that doesn't mean he can't still become a good pitcher.
Then there's Lee, who was already 22 years old when he pitched professionally for the first time. Lee was drafted by the Montreal Expos in fourth round of the 2000 draft and went straight to Cape Fear of the Class A South Atlantic League, where he posted a 5.24 ERA with 63 strikeouts (12.69 K/9IP) and 36 walks (7.25 BB/9IP) in 44.2 innings.
Having gotten a taste of pro ball, Lee was much better the following season at Jupiter of the Class A Florida State League. He had a 2.79 ERA with 129 strikeouts (10.59 K/9IP) and 46 walks (3.78 BB/9IP) in 109.2 innings.
Then last year, Lee had a crazy season. He started the season at Harrisburg of the Class AA Eastern League and was pitching very well with a 3.23 ERA, 105 strikeouts (10.95 K/9IP) and 23 walks (2.40 BB/9IP) in 86.1 innings when the Expos traded him to Cleveland as part of the package for Bartolo Colon.
The Indians stuck him in Akron of the Easterrn League for 16.2 innings before promoting him to Buffalo of the Class AAA International League. In 43 innings at Buffalo, Lee had a 3.77 ERA with 30 strikeouts (6.28 K/9IP) and 22 walks (4.60 BB/9IP). After the IL season ended, the Indians gave hmi his first shot at the major leagues. Lee made two starts and allowed just two runs on six hits and eight walks with six strikeouts in 10.2 innings.
Despite the fact that his numbers from last season didn't really suggest that he was ready, Lee was rumored to be in contention for a spot in Cleveland's rotation this spring. Then, right as the season was about to start, an abdominal injury landed him on the 60-day disabled list.
When he returned, Lee went back to Akron for 12 innings before pitching most of the season at Buffalo. In 63.1 innings there, he posted a 3.27 ERA with 61 strikeouts (8.67 K/9IP) and 31 walks (4.41 BB/9IP).
Lee did pick up his first major-league win at the end of June, when he allowed two unearned runs on three hits and three walks with five strikeouts in six innings against Kansas City. Lee did not make another appearance in the majors until mid-August, however, when he returned to Cleveland's rotation, presumably for good.
When he did return, Lee made three nice starts in a row, allowing nine runs (eight earned) on 19 hits and three walks with 19 strikeouts in 21 innings. After that, however, Lee had some problems, allowing six runs (just two earned) on four hits and three walks with two strikeouts in three innings to the Detroit Tigers and then allowing two runs on four hits and four walks with four strikeouts in 5.1 innings against the Chicago White Sox.
Yesterday, Lee was back in control, allowing Minnesota to score three runs on five hits and a walk with seven strikeouts in seven innings. With that performance, Lee has a 3.19 ERA with 37 strikeouts and 14 walks in 42.1 innings in the major leagues this season.
Like Riley, he's a left-hander with good stuff and questionable control. He should be a full-time member of Cleveland's rotation starting next season.
Finally, pretty much everybody knows about Zambrano. At just 22 years of age, he has a 2.77 ERA (sixth-best in the NL), 160 strikeouts (10th-most in the NL; 7.05 K/9IP) and 86 walks (eighth-most in the NL; 3.79 BB/9IP) in 204.1 innings (sixth-most in the NL).
Since the All-Star break, Zambrano has a 1.61 ERA with 66 strikeouts (7.10 K/9IP) and 29 walks (3.12 BB/9IP) in 83.2 innings. He's pitched three complete games in that time while going 7-2.
Clearly, Zambrano appears to have the best future of these three young pitchers. The big question is whether or not he'll get a chance to see that future.
While pitching his third complete game of the season yesterday, Zambrano threw 129 pitches. That was the fifth time this season that Zambrano has thrown more than 120 pitches.
For the season, he averages 106.8 pitches per start, but he has been abused much more in recent games, which isn't really surprising considering that the Cubs are in a playoff race.
In his last 10 starts, Zambrano has averaged 115.2 pitches and he's thrown more than 115 pitches seven times. In his last four starts, he's averaged 119.5 pitches.
I know every game is critical to Chicago's chances of making the playoffs, but Dusty Baker and the Cubs need to be careful with Zambrano. If the only way they can make the playoffs is to work him as hard as they have been recently, then I'd rather they didn't make the playoffs. Playing in October isn't worth the risk that Zambrano won't be able to play at all for an extended period of time.
It will be interesting to see which one of these young, hard-throwers with less-than-stellar control will end up having the best career. We need only look at another of yesterday's pitchers to remember that you can't always tell what will happen to a pitcher with great stuff and not-so-great command.
Yesterday, Randy Johnson pitched a complete-game, one-hit, one-walk, 12-strikeout shutout. His game score yesterday was 96, which may be the best of this season (Kevin Millwood had a 94 game score when he threw his no-hitter).
When Johnson was 22 years old, he had just started pitching professionally after being drafted by Montreal in the second round of the 1985 draft. He had a 5.93 ERA with 21 strikeouts and 24 walks in 27.1 innings for Jamestown of the short-season New York-Penn League that year.
When he was 24 years old, Johnson pitched the whole season for Jacksonville of the Class AA Southern League. He had a 3.73 ERA with 163 strikeouts (10.48 K/9IP) and 128 walks (8.23 BB/9IP) in 140 innings.
At age 25, Johnson started the season with Indianapolis of the Class AAA American Association, where he posted a 3.26 ERA with 111 strikeouts (8.81 K/9IP) and 72 walks (5.72 BB/9IP) in 113.1 innings. He also got his first shot in the majors that year, posting a 2.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts and seven walks in 26 innings with the Expos.
I'm sure nobody envisioned Johnson turning into one of the greatest left-handed pitchers of all-time back then, just like nobody knows exactly what will become of the three young pitchers who caught my interest yesterday.