ALCS Preview
Aside from fans of the Athletics and Twins and people who hate the East Coast, this is the matchup the baseball world was hoping for. They got it, and it should be great. These two teams met in a playoff series for the first time four years ago and it wasn't pretty. The Red Sox were clearly the inferior team, they made 10 errors in five games, they got some bad bounces and they got no love from the umpires. This time around should be much better. The Red Sox and Yankees are about as evenly matched as they've ever been and I'll be shocked if the series doesn't go at least six games.
The Red Sox led the AL with 5.93 runs scored per game in the regular season, while the Yankees ranked third with 5.38 runs scored per game. On the other side of the ledger, the Yankees ranked fourth in the AL with 4.42 runs allowed per game while the Red Sox were eighth with 4.99 runs allowed per game.
So, let's take a look at those lineups and see how they stack up.
C - These are probably the two best catchers in the AL. They're both switch-hitters with power who are very highly regarded by all of the people around them. The only thing I dislike about either catcher is that Jorge Posada never blocks home plate on a close play there. He always comes up above the plate to receive the throw, and then he tries a sweep tag on the runner. But that's just one, fairly little, thing. Both of these catchers are exceedingly good.
Jason Varitek hit .273/.351/.512 (.863) in the regular season and an even better .286/.375/.714 (1.089) in the ALDS. He started Boston's rally in game five and he was there to capitalize on every Oakland mistake in game three.
Posada hit .281/.405/.518 (.922) in the regular season, but slumped to .176/.176/.235 (.412) in the ALDS. August and September were Posada's best two months this season, so he's probably not worn down from the season. It's more likely that he just had a bad four games against the Twins.
Bob Ryan wrote in the Boston Globe today that Varitek is Mr. Red Sox, but the Yankees do have a slight advantage here, at least based on the regular season. Posada does have a history of struggling in the post-season though (he's hit .222/.335/.370 in 189 playoff at-bats including this year), so maybe the Red Sox will get the better of this matchup (not that I think past post-season performance is indicative of future post-season performance).
1B - Both first basemen have been instrumental to their team's success on offense this year, but both are also struggling mightily at the moment.
Nick Johnson hit .284/.422/.472 (.894) in the regular season, but just .077/.294/.154 (.448) in the ALDS. He went 0-for-17 with just one walk in the last five games of the regular season, and that slump seems to have carried over to the playoffs as he only had one hit despite reaching base in each game in the series against Minnesota.
Kevin Millar hit .276/.348/.472 (.820) in the regular season, but just .238/.304/.238 (.542) in the ALDS. He hit just .251/.331/.421 (.752) after the All-Star break, and it doesn't seem to be getting any better in October.
Both players are decent on defense, both are capable of being good on offense and both are in a big funk at the plate right now, so I guess this position is about even. I'll give the Red Sox a slight advantage, however, because Millar has at least shown some ability to put the ball into play with authority recently. Johnson has just one hit in 30 at-bats in his last nine games.
2B - If you're trying to teach your son to become a good defensive second baseman, do not under any circumstances allow him to watch this series. It could get very, very ugly. Fortunately, both players are capable of hitting a little bit.
Todd Walker hit .283/.333/.428 (.760) in the regular season and amazingly hit .313/.353/.875 (1.228) in the ALDS. I wouldn't expect that hot hitting to necessarily continue, however, as his only hit after his stellar first game was his home run in game four.
Alfonso Soriano hit .290/.338/.525 (863) in the regular season and .368/.368/.421 (.789) in the ALDS. I wouldn't be surprised to see his walkless tendencies extend to the ALCS, but don't expect his powerless tendencies to do so as well.
The Yankees definitely have a significant advantage here, but I can't decide just how big an advantage it is. Soriano hits lefties (.312/.379/.565 in 138 at-bats this year, .298/.354/.523 in 369 at-bats before this year) much better than he hits righties (.285/.327/.515 in 544 at-bats this year, .285/.319/.502 in 1583 at-bats before this year) and he won't be facing a single left-handed pitcher in this series. On the other hand, Walker can't hit lefties to save his life (.234/.282/.373 against them in 158 at-bats this year, .259/.296/.382 against them in 424 at-bats the three previous seasons), and the Yankees have two of them in the starting rotation. Walker might not start all of the games in which the Yankees use a lefty, but Damian Jackson's presence in the lineup certainly won't narrow the gap on Soriano.
3B - Both teams traded away their original starting third basemen to give the job to somebody else. The move worked out beautifully for the Red Sox and not so well for the Yankees.
Bill Mueller had a career year by hitting .326/.398/.540 (.938) in the regular season, but slumped to .105/.227/.158 (.385) in the ALDS. He was only 10-for-41 with three walks, a double and no homers in his final 13 games, so he may be tiring from playing mre games than he had since 2000 or it may just be a random slump. He did hit the Yankees very well (.347/.420/.569) in the regular season, so maybe he'll snap out of it against them in the playoffs.
Aaron Boone hit .267/.327/.453 (.780) this season, but he was much worse with the Yankees (.254/.302/.418 in 54 games) than he was with the Reds (.273/.339/.469 in 106 games). He continued to struggle with the Yankees in the ALDS, hitting .200/.200/.267 (.467).
Boone is probably a better defensive player than Mueller, but Mueller was a much better offensive player in the regular season and I see no reason to believe he won't be in this series as well. I'll give the Red Sox the advantage here.
SS - This is certainly the most glamorous positional matchup in the series. As Thom Loverro writes in today's Washington Post, these two shortstops are always linked.
Nomar Garciaparra hit .301/.345/.524 in the regular season and a quiet .300/.391/.350 (.741) in the ALDS. His terrible September (.170/.248/.351) prevented him from getting serious consideration for the AL MVP award, but at least he rediscovered his hitting stroke, if not all of his power, for the playoffs.
Derek Jeter hit .324/.393/.450 (.844) in the regular season and got even better in the ALDS, hitting .429/.556/.643 (.1.198) against the Twins. The only positive the Red Sox pitchers have against him is that he hits lefties (.370/.442/.500 in 100 at-bats this year, .337/.415/.499 in 347 at-bats the previous three years) much better than he hits righties (.312/.380/.437 in 382 at-bats this year, .302/.371/.438 in 1393 at-bats the previous three years) and, like Soriano, he won't be facing any lefties in this series. Of course, that didn't stop Jeter from hitting .394/.474/.515 (.989) against the Red Sox this year.
I'll give the Red Sox a slight advantage here because Garciaparra's edge on defense makes up for the slight edge Jeter appears to have on offense right now. Plus, if Garciaparra hits like he's capable of hitting then he'll be at least Jeter's equal offensively. One thing's for sure, it'll be interesting to see how they do in an LCS when they're both completely healthy (remember that Garciaparra had that wrist injury in the '99 LCS).
LF - This is definitely Boston's biggest advantage. Neither player is anything special on defense, whereas Boston's left fielder is a great hitter in America and New York's left fielder was a great hitter in Japan.
Manny Ramirez hit .325/.427/.587 (1.014) in the regular season, but just .200/.304/.350 (.654) in the ALDS. However, he showed without a doubt in game five that he is still a fearsome hitter.
Hideki Matsui hit .287/.353/.435 (.788) in the regular season and .267/.353/.533 (.886) in the ALDS. His performance this season was about what I expected of him -- good enough to play left field in the major leagues, but not any better than a bunch of guys the Yankees could have gotten much more cheaply. Since money isn't really an issue for the Yankees, it doesn't really matter that they're paying $6 million for basically an average left fielder.
As I said, Boston has a huge advantage here. Ramirez is a perennial MVP candidate while Matsui is decidedly average, although he does do all the "little things" well. In all seriousness, his fundamentals are much, much better than those of Ramirez, but he's not even in the same hemisphere as Ramirez offensively.
CF - This position is muddled by the injury to Johnny Damon. It looks like he will miss at least the first two games of the series, and some reports say he'll be out at least a week. He's on the ALCS roster, so the Red Sox clearly expect him to be ready to play at some point. Until that point, however, Gabe Kapler will play center field. Also, Jackson will be the only defensive replacement available for center as Adrian Brown was left off the ALCS roster.
Damon hit .273/.345/.405 (.750) in the regular season and .316/.409/.579 (.988) in the ALDS and is an excellent defensive center fielder despite his poor throwing arm. Kapler hit .291/.349/.449 (.798) with the Red Sox in the regular season, but didn't have a hit in nine at-bats in the ALDS. I'm not real sure how good Kapler is defensively in center, but he's certainly significantly worse than Damon.
For the Yankees, Bernie Williams hit .263/.367/.411 (.778) in the regular season, but got hot and hit .400/.444/.533 (.978) in the ALDS. He's also lost a few steps and is now probably a liability in center field rather than an asset defensively.
If Damon were healthy, I'd give the Red Sox a slight advantage here. Since he's not, I'll give the Yankees a slight advantage. Obviously, it will be very good for the Red Sox if Damon can return at full strength very quickly.
RF - Based on the ALDS, it looks as though Juan Rivera will get the bulk of the playing time here for the Yankees. That's good for the Red Sox, because they only have right-handed starters and Rivera doesn't hit righties well (.236/.282/.390 in 123 at-bats this year, .246/.288/.382 in 199 at-bats before this year).
In 260 at-bats in the regular season, Rivera hit .266/.304/.468 (.773), but that's only because he absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. In the ALDS, he hit .333/.385/.333 (.718). The three players who could potentially replace Rivera in right field (David Dellucci, Karim Garcia and Ruben Sierra) combined for just two at-bats in the ALDS against the Twins.
For the Red Sox, Trot Nixon hit .306/.396/.578 (.975) in the regular season and .200/.273/.500 (.773) in the ALDS. Damon's injury also affects right field for Boston, because it means Nixon will have to start against a lefty if Kapler is playing in center. Nixon hit just .219/.296/.375 (.671) in 96 at-bats against lefties this year (.221/.303/.341 in 317 at-bats the previous three years), but he will probably have to start against a lefty at least once in this series.
Still, the Red Sox have a pretty decent advantage here. That advantage will get even more pronounced if Damon gets healthy and allows Kapler to spell Nixon against lefties.
DH - Both teams received a great deal of offense from their DH in the regular season and not much offense from their DH in the ALDS.
Jason Giambi had an "off" year that saw him hit .250/.412/.527 (.939) in the regular season before slumping to .250/.333/.375 (.708) in the ALDS. It's pretty clear that his hitting is suffering from his season-long injuries, but he's still got a great eye and he still has dangerous power.
David Ortiz had a career year that saw him hit .288/.369/.592 (.961) in the regular season before slumping to .095/.174/.143 (.317) in the ALDS, although he did come through with the winning double in game two. Ortiz destroyed the Yankees pitching staff in the regular season (.327/.383/.745 in 55 at-bats) and it will be interesting to see if he can snap out of his slump and do so again in this series.
I'd give the Yankees a slight advantage here, because Giambi has a better pedigree as a hitter and because Ortiz slumped so badly in the ALDS. But either hitter could certainly get red hot for the ALCS.
The Red Sox have a definite advantage in the starting lineups, as they have the better offense and probably the better defense. Also, it's worth noting that the Red Sox can reasonably expect to start a rally at any point because they don't have any real weak spots in the lineup from top to bottom. For the Yankees, however, it would be surprising if the bottom of the order (Boone and Rivera) get things started because they're not very good hitters.
As far as the benches go, there's not much to talk about. The Red Sox are a bit thin on the bench because of Damon's injury and the Yankees are a bit thin on the bench because they don't have any really good backups.
Now, how about those starting pitchers?
Game one is an interesting matchup. Mike Mussina has been the ace of New York's pitching staff ever since he signed in the Bronx, but he hasn't been treated that way in the playoffs as he didn't start until game three in the division series each of the last two post-seasons. This year, he started the first game of the ALDS and will start the first game of the ALCS. For the Red Sox, Tim Wakefield will start game one after being left off the ALCS roster four years ago in the first ALCS matchup of these two teams.
Mussina had a 3.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 195 strikeouts, 40 walks and 21 homers allowed in 214.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed three runs (all earned, but not really deserved) on seven hits and three walks with six strikeouts in seven innings in the ALDS. Until his last start of the season when he got bombed by the White Sox, he was a candidate (although definitely not a favorite) for the AL Cy Young award.
Wakefield had 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 169 strikeouts, 71 walks and 23 homers allowed in 202.1 innings. He allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in six innings in his ALDS start.
The Yankees certainly have the advantage here, but Wakefield did have a 2.01 ERA in September, so it might not be as big an advantage as you would think it is.
Game two will pit Andy Pettitte against Derek Lowe.
Pettitte had a 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 180 strikeouts, 50 walks and 21 homers allowed in 208.1 innings in the regular season. He allowed one run on four hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts in seven innings in the ALDS.
Lowe had a 4.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 110 strikeouts, 72 walks and 17 homers allowed in 203.1 innings. He allowed one unearned run on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts in seven innings in his ALDS start.
I think these two pitchers are pretty evenly matched, but I'll give the Yankees a slight edge because Lowe may be a little tired after pitching three times in the ALDS and the Red Sox weren't as good against lefties as they were against righties this year. You might think the Yankees would have a big edge because Lowe's been so much better at home than on the road this year, but most of his road struggles were due to 21.1 terrible innings on turf (9.70 ERA).
Game three is a rematch of 1999's third game -- Pedro Martinez against Roger Clemens at Fenway Park. Only this time it's the Rocket's final start at Fenway (and possibly the final start of his career, who knows?).
Martinez had a 2.22 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 206 strikeouts, 47 walks and seven homers allowed in 186.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed six runs on 13 hits and five walks with nine strikeouts in 14 innings in the ALDS.
Clemens had a 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 190 strikeouts, 58 walks and 24 homers allowed in 211.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed one run on five hits and a walk with six strikeouts in seven innings in the ALDS.
I know Martinez wasn't his best in the ALDS and Clemens was, but I've still got to give the Red Sox a significant edge here. Until I see indisputable evidence to the contrary, there's still no pitcher I'd rather have on the mound for a big game than Martinez.
Game four looks like the biggest mismatch, as David Wells takes on John Burkett.
Wells had a 4.14 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 101 strikeouts, 20 walks and 24 homers allowed in 213 innings in the regular season. He allowed one run on eight hits and no walks with five strikeouts in 7.2 innings in the ALDS.
Burkett had a 5.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 107 strikeouts, 47 walks and 20 homers allowed in 181.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed four runs (thanks to Grady Little's slow hook) on nine hits and two walks with one strikeout in 5.1 innings in the ALDS. He's occassionally capable of cobbling together a nice start, but he's always a train wreck waiting to happen.
As I said, the Yankees have a very big advantage here. Wells isn't a great pitcher, but he doesn't beat himself and he almost always give you a lot of innings. Burkett gets hit hard almost always from the very first pitch and never goes real deep into games.
In the bullpen, the only difference between the two teams is Mariano Rivera. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, that's a very big difference.
In fact, if you took away Rivera and whoever you think Boston's best reliever is, I'd much rather have the rest of Boston's bullpen than the rest of New York's bullpen. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, you can't do that.
There are really only two positives here for the Red Sox. First, while their bullpen was a source of constant frustration in the regular season, it allowed just two runs (both in the first game) in 16.1 innings in the ALDS, which is prett damn good (1.10 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Second, the Yankees won't be able to rely almost exclusively on Rivera like they did in the ALDS, and the rest of their bullpen is very suspect.
Still, because of Rivera you have to give the Yankees a big advantage here. He allowed 16 hits and three walks to the Red Sox in 10 innings this year, but that was the regular season and he might be the best post-season pitcher of all-time, reliever or otherwise. He's allowed only eight earned runs in 84 innings (0.86 ERA) including this year's ALDS.
So, now that we've gotten through all of that, it's time for my official prediction. I know some of you will think this is just because I'm a Red Sox fan, but I think the Red Sox will win in seven games. I don't see any reason why they can't split the first two in Yankee Stadium and then win two of the next four, leaving things up to Martinez against Clemens in Yankee Stadium for a trip to the World Series. And like I said early, there's no pitcher I'd rather have on the mound in a big game than Martinez.
Note - These playoffs just keep getting better and better, don't they? That was one hell of a game the Cubs and Marlins played last night and although that wasn't the way I expected the Marlins to win game one of the series, I'll take credit for saying that they would.