The art of dumping salary
Since the end of the season, there have been six trades in which Team A traded Player A to Team B in exchange for a player or players who make significantly less money than Player A. I thought it would be interesting to look at how the various teams involved in those trades fared and see what I can determine. Here's a recap of all six trades, in chronological order for your your convenience.
1) Houston trades Billy Wagner to Philadelphia for Brandon Duckworth, Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio.
2) Minnesota trades A.J. Pierzynski (and either a PTBNL or cash) to San Francisco for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano.
3) Florida trades Derrek Lee to the Chicago Cubs for Hee Seop Choi and a PTBNL.
4) Arizona trades Curt Schilling to Boston for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge De La Rosa and Michael Goss.
5) Milwaukee trades Richie Sexson (and Shane Nance and a PTBNL) to Arizona for Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano and Jorge De La Rosa.
6) Minnesota trades Eric Milton to Philadelphia for Carlos Silva, Nick Punto and a PTBNL.
So, we can see some interesting things right away. One team was on the sending side of two trades, one team was on the receiving side of two trades and one team was on the sending side of one trade and the receiving side of another trade. Of the five teams that "dumped" players, four of them had winning records last year and two of them made the playoffs. Of the five teams that "were dumped on," all of them had winning records last year and three of them made the playoffs.
There is also an interesting mix of players being "dumped." There are two first basemen who are very similar, an aging starting pitcher coming off three great seasons, an overrated starting pitcher coming off an injury-lost season, a dominant relief pitcher and a young catcher who is about to become more expensive. There is also a very interesting mix of players being sent as compensation, ranging from worthless young players to promising young players to established young players to worthless old players.
First, I want to look at the four teams who have strictly gotten rid of expensive players to see how they did. Let's start with the Astros.
In Wagner, the Astros lost one of the best relievers in baseball, but saved the $8-million he's due to make in 2004 (they actually saved $11-million, because he has a $9-million option for 2005 with a $3-million buyout, so he would have cost Houston at least $11-million had they kept him). He's pitched seven complete season in the major leagues, throwing at least 50 innings with an ERA of 2.85 or better in each season. His worst K/9IP ratio was 10.56 and his worst K/BB ratio was 2.23. He was limited to 27.2 innings, during which he pitched terribly, due to injury in 2000, but he's had three excellent seasons since then and there's no indication that injury is a problem at the moment.
So, Houston lost a great reliever, but it's less of a sting because the Astros had one of the best bullpens in the major leagues last year and Octavio Dotel and Brad Lidge should be enough that the Astros won't be devastated by not having Wagner around.
However, if they don't use the money they saved by trading Wagner, I'd expect them to be worse next year because they didn't really get much talent in the trade. Duckworth will be 28 years old when the 2004 season starts and he had a 4.94 ERA and 1.53 WHIP last season. He only struck out 68 batters in 93 innings while walking 44 batters. He has occassionally shown the potential to be better, but I doubt that he'll turn into anything more than a decent fourth or fifth starter.
Buchholz is 22 years old and spent all of 2003 in Class AA. He posted a 3.55 ERA in 144.2 innings and showed good control (2.05 BB/9IP), but he didn't strike out that many hitters (7.09 K/9IP). That's a slight drop from his 7.32 K/9IP mark in Class A in 2002 and he may have trouble succeeding as he moves up to AAA and the majors if his strikeout rate continues to drop. He's obviously young enough that he could get a lot better, but right now he doesn't look that much better than Duckworth and he probably won't help Houston until 2005.
Astacio is 23 years old and pitched all of 2003 in high Class A. He posted a 3.29 ERA in 147.2 innings and he also showed good control (1.77 BB/9IP), but also didn't strike many people out (5.06 K/9IP). That's significantly worse than the bad 5.91 K/9IP ratio he had in 152.1 innings in low Class A in 2002. If he's having trouble striking people out in Class A, I find it hard to believe that he'll be able to do well as he continues to move up and I'd be surprised if he ever helps Houston.
So, I don't think losing Wagner is the worst thing for Houston, but if they just pocket the savings then the package of players they got makes it an awful trade for them. If they invest that savings into improving the starting rotation, then it could end up being a very helpful trade.
Minnesota gave up Pierzynski and Milton and picked up two major league relievers (Nathan and Silva), a utility infielder (Punto), two pitching prospects (Bonser and Liriano) and a PTBNL. They also have to give San Fran a PTBNL or cash, but the cash is likely to be a small amount or the PTBNL will be rather unexciting.
Pierzynski is as much an opportunity trade as a salary dump. He only made $365,000 last year and, although he will get much more than that in arbitration this year, the Twins could have kept him if they wanted to. However, they have a premier prospect at catcher in Joe Mauer, who most people feel will be ready to be their starting catcher before the end of the 2004 season. So, the Twins had three options. First, they could trade Pierzynski before the season and give the job to Mauer. Second, they could keep Pierzynski to start the season and trade him during the season whenever they thought Mauer was ready. Third, they could keep Pierzynski the whole season and let Mauer wait until 2005 to take over as the starting catcher.
Obviously, the longer they waited, the less leverage they would have had in trading Pierzynski because everybody would have known that they had to trade him soon to make room for Mauer. Keeping him longer would have given them the benefit of insurance if Mauer struggled for some reason, but when you have a tight budget you can't hold onto a valuable commodity like Pierzynski just for insurance.
So, Pierzynski is gone and he will be replaced behind the plate by Mauer. Pierzynski's offense has gotten better each of the last two seasons, and he hit .312/.360/.464 (.824) in 2003 while playing 137 games. Those are very nice offensive numbers for a catcher, and it's difficult to imagine Mauer, as good a prospect as he is, jumping from Class AA to to the majors and duplicating those numbers. The Twins will almost definitely get less offense from the catcher position in 2003 than they would have had they kept Pierzynski, but Mauer is reportedly very good on defense and could be better than Pierzynski there.
Also, the Twins picked up an important player in Nathan. Minnesota knew keeping re-signing both free agent relievers (Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins) would be impossible, and Nathan gives them a suitable replacement for one of them (which is good, because Hawkins has already signed elsewhere). Nathan had a 2.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 79 innings for San Francisco last year, with a good strikeout rate (9.46 K/9IP) and a walk rate that isn't terrible (3.76 BB/9IP). He does have a bit of an injury history, but I see no reason why the Twins shouldn't be able to pencil him in for around 80 quality innings.
On top of him, the Twins also picked up two intriguing pitching prospects in Bonser and Liriano. Bonser was once a top-notch prospect, but his star has dimmed a bit since then. Still, he's only 22 years old and he posted nice numbers in his brief stint in Class AAA last year. Assuming he starts 2004 in AAA, he will be pitching in a home park that is very nice to pitchers (the Twins farm club is in Rochester, NY, where I live), which might help him develop. I could envision him joining the Twins rotation late in 2004 and possibly developing into a quality middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. Liriano pitched just nine innings last year due to injuries, but he's only 20 years old and has posted nice strikeout rates when he has been able to pitch. As the worst player in the deal, he's a very good gamble.
Unlike the Pierzynski trade, the Milton trade was a straight salary dump. Milton has always excited people with his potential, but he'll make $9-million in 2004, he pitched just 17 innings in 2003 and his career ERA+ is 101. He's not exactly somebody who fits into Minnesota's budget.
With him in Philadelphia, the Twins will have more money available to try and re-sign Guardado and "MVP candidate" Shannon Stewart. They also picked up Silva, who will be 25 when next season starts and had a decent 4.43 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 87.1 innings for the Phillies, and Punto, who is a cheap replacement for Denny Hocking at utility infielder.
So, to recap, the Twins traded away a catcher for whom they already had a replacement and a starting pitcher who they didn't use at all last year to save a significant chunk of change that they can use elsewhere on the team. While doing so, they acquire two solid relievers, a decent utility infielder and two interesting pitching prospects. All in all, I'd say that's pretty good work by Terry Ryan.
Florida, as everybody knows, just won the World Series and there was a lot of concern that a lot of the team would leave because it was too expensive, like in 1997. Florida's first deal this off-season was to get rid of a high salary, but it was not just for the sake of dumping payroll.
Lee has been a very good hitter the last four years, but he's been underrated quite a bit because of the park he plays in. His OPS's the last four years have been .875, .820, .872, .887, but his OPS+'s have been 122, 113, 131, 135. He's only 28 years old and he also has a very good reputation on defense.
He only made $4.52-million last year, which is a good value for what he provided, but he will make much more than that in arbitration this year after hitting 31 homers and stealing 21 bases. The Marlins decided that he was one of the most easily replacable expensive players on their roster, so they made a trade to replace him right away.
Choi will be 25 years old when the 2002 season starts, and most people expect him to become an excellent hitter. In 2002, he hit .287/.406/.513 (.919) in 135 games in Class AAA, but he struggled in 50 at-bats in the majors. Dusty Baker doesn't exactly like young players, but he gave Choi a chance to play a good amount this year and Choi was hitting .244/.389/.496 (.885) on June 7th when he collided with Chicago's pitcher and hurt himself. He missed about three weeks and, when he returned, he struggled and got less playing time.
Choi finished the season hitting .218/.350/.421 (.771), but I think what he did before the injury is a much better indication of what he can do. If they just let him play next year, I think the Marlins should expect an OBP in the same area that Lee provided with less power. The big question for Choi is whether or not he can hit lefties. His numbers against them were bad last year, but they came in just 17 at-bats. Luckily for the Marlins, they have somebody on the roster who can play first base and hit lefties pretty well in Jeff Conine. Conine's a bit expensive to be part of a platoon, but he'll also probably see some time in the outfield and he's not real a good enough commodity for the Marlins to trade.
Trading Lee also allowed the Marlins to re-sign two other players who were a large part of their success last year. Luis Castillo agreed to a three-year contract worth $16-million and Mike Lowell agreed to a four-year contract worth $32-million. Lowell's contract is contingent on Florida getting a new stadium approved, but he'll be a Marlin for next year at the very least (if the stadium is not approved, his deal becomes a one-year contract with a player option for 2005).
A lot of people have been down on the Castillo signing, but I think it's a good deal for the Marlins. He's 28 years old and he's coming off a season in which he hit .314/.381/.397 (.778) for an OPS+ of 109. That's pretty good for a second baseman, although the Marlins may want to discourage him from trying to steal bases unless he can rediscover the success he had before this season.
Castillo has had some injury problems and he might not age very well, but the Marlins are getting his age 28, 29 and 30 seasons. Those aren't exactly his elderly years. I think they can count on him to post a good OBP, play good defense at second base and help the team win ballgames for the next three years. After that, I'd probably be hesitant about giving him a new deal, but I definitely like this deal.
Lowell was having a very nice season last year when he broke his thumb and missed most of the rest of the season. He finished the year hitting .276/.350/.530 (.881) for an OPS+ of 132 in 130 games. Lowell has steadily improved over the last few years, but he'll be 30 years old when the 2004 season starts and he has a history of fading in the second half of the season. Over the last three years, he's hit .290/.359/.535 (.894) before the All-Star break and .262/.325/.403 (.728) after it, and that's not something that's been skewed by one crazy year because all three seasons have had siginificant drop-offs. That's definitely something to be worried about, but it's still good that the Marlins kept Lowell considering the options at third base through free agency (I suppose they could have moved Miguel Cabrera to third and signed an outfielder).
The Marlins have several more difficult decisions to make, but I like what they've done so far. They traded one expensive hitter to help them sign two others and replaced they expensive hitter they lost with an inexpensive hitter who shouldn't be that much worse.
Milwaukee traded its star first baseman away not so that it could remain competitive, but because he will make $8-million this year and is a free agent after that and they wouldn't have been able to re-sign him. Sexson hit .272/.379/.548 (927) without missing a game last year for an OPS+ of 136. Over the last several years, Sexson's OPS+ has steadily climbed from 102 to 112 to 124 to 130 to 136. He'll be 29 when the 2004 season starts, and even if he doesn't keep getting better he should have several very good seasons in him. So, the Brewers will be losing a very important part of their offense, but they weren't going to win next year anyways.
Let's see what they got in return. Overbay hit .276/.365/.402 (.767) in 86 games last year and will take over first base until Prince Fielder is ready to take over from him. Fielder is only 19 years old and he hit .313/.409/.526 (.935) in 137 games in Class A last year, so he's at least one year and probably two or three years away from becoming Milwaukee's starting first baseman. When that point arrives, the Brewers can trade Overbay if he's shown that he's good enough to be a valuable starting first baseman or they can just non-tender him.
Spivey will be 29 when the 2004 season starts and he will almost definitely be on a team other than Milwaukee by then. After an excellent 2002 season, he hit just .255/.326/.433 (.759) last year. I don't know how much they can get for Spivey, but there's no reason to keep him because Keith Ginter is both younger and better (only by a little bit in each case, but enough to make him better for the Brewers to keep).
Counsell is pretty much just a contract going the other way so that Arizona doesn't take on too much salary. He's an expensive 33-year-old who hasn't hit a lick the past two years. He was pretty good in part-time action in 2000, but that was three years ago and that was the only time in his career that he's been pretty good. He'll either play shortstop until J.J. Hardy is ready or he'll just sit on the bench and take up space. Hardy hit .279/.368/.428 (.796) in 114 games last year in Class AA last year. He'll probably start next season in Class AAA and then move up sometime around mid-season if he's doing well.
Moeller will be 29 years old when the 2004 season starts and isn't terrible for a catcher. He hit .268/.335/.435 (.770) in 78 ghames last year and there have been rumors that the A's are interested in acquiring him. If the Brewers keep him, he will be better than the catchers they had last year. If they trade him, it will be interesting to see what they get in return.
Capuano and De La Rosa will probably be the key to whether or not this trade is good for the Brewers because they are the two pitching prospects whose value is largely unknown at this point. Capuano is 25 years old and spent most of last season in Class AAA, where he posted a 3.34 ERA, 6.81 K/9IP and 2.71 BB/9IP in 142.2 innings. He also pitched 33 less than great innings in the majors. He didn't strike many people out in AAA (or the majors) and he didn't show great control. He did strike a lot of people out in the lower minors, so maybe he can get better. I'm rooting for him to succeed because he's from my hometown (Springfield, Mass.), but I doubt he'll ever turn into anything really special.
De La Rosa is 22 years old and spent most of last year in Class AA, where he had a 2.80 ERA, 9.21 K/9IP and 3.25 BB/9IP in 99.2 innings. He wasn't as good in 24 innings in Class AAA and should go back to Class AAA this season, but he's young, strikes people out and has a shot at becoming a good starting pitcher in the majors.
Nance is a 26-year-old relief pitcher who has had great success in the minor leagues, but hasn't been good in his brief time in the majors. He has a shot at being a decent middle reliever.
Milwaukee has taken a lot of heat over this trade for losing a star hitter, but we won't really know how good this trade is for the Brewers for awhile. We have to see what they get for Spivey, whether or not they keep Moeller and what Capuano and De La Rosa can do. I think it was a pretty good deal for them, because it gives them a lot of pieces they can use to get better. They even got one exciting, young player who could be turning into a good major leaguer around the same time their other exciting, young players start to hit the scene.
Now, let's look at the one team that was both dumping salary and acquiring salary.
Arizona turned Curt Schilling, Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Chad Moeller and Chris Capuano into Richie Sexson, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Shane Nance, Michael Goss and a PTBNL. In doing so, they saved somewhere in the neighborhood of $7-million (give or take a million), which is important to them because they apparently want to lower their payroll from $96-million to $80-million.
The big loss is obviously Schilling, who posted a 3.14 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.07 K/9IP and 1.35 BB/9IP in 781.2 innings as a member of the Diamondbacks. He's 37 years old, but he's still very, very good and Arizona will miss him, especially if Randy Johnson can't at least get most of the way back to the level he was at his first four seasons in Arizona.
The big gain is obviously Sexson, who will vastly improve Arizona's first base situation. Arizona's first basemen last year combined to hit .261/.331/.380 (.712) while playing in a park that helps hitters. Sexson will be so much better than that it's not even funny.
What about everybody else? Well, Overbay was part of that first base disaster last year (one of the better parts, but still a part), so they obviously won't miss him. Spivey and Counsell are infielders they don't need with Shea Hillenbrand, Alex Cintron and Matt Kata around. None of those players are great (and I'd rather they use Chad Tracy at third than Hillenbrand, but that's not going to happen), but Spivey and Counsell aren't anywhere near great either.
In addition to losing those players, Arizona turned Capuano into Fossum, Lyon and Nance (and Goss and a PTBNL, both of which I'm going to assume won't amount to anything). I'd say that Capuano and Fossum have a similar shot at being good major league starters, in that neither of them have a real good shot. Fossum probably has a higher ceiling, but he's also a much bigger injury risk with his slight frame. Lyon and Nance could both be decent relievers, so Arizona did okay turning one potentially helpful young pitcher into three potentially helpful young pitchers.
The net effect of these trades will be to improve the offense (which was horrible last year) a lot and hurt the pitching a lot. If Johnson can return to his Cy Young form, then next year's Diamondbacks team should definitely be better than last year's. If not, then it will depend a lot on what the three young pitchers give them and also on what the three young infielders do. Considering that they had to cut payroll, the Diamondbacks did well to end up with the same number of star players if not the same caliber of star players.
Finally, how did the four teams picking up expensive players do?
Philadelphia has suddenly decided that it can spend a bunch of money. Last off-season, the Phillies signed Jim Thome to a big contract and he rewarded them with a typically excellent season. This off-season, they've traded for Wagner and Milton, who will make $17-million between them in 2004. To get those two pitchers, they didn't give up much -- a fifth starter (Duckworth), a decent reliever (Silva), a utility infielder (Punto) and two so-so prospects (Buchholz and Astacio).
Since the Phillies have decided that they are big-spenders, these deals are fine. Are both pitchers overpaid? Certainly. Can both pitchers help them win games next year? Certainly. Wagner, as I've already discussed, is a dominant closer and is much better than the dreck they used in that role last year. Milton is a bigger question mark.
Milton is 28 years old and is coming off a season in which injury limited him to just 17 innings and, while he has definitely shown potential, he's never really been a great pitcher. Still, he's certainly capable of replacing Kevin Millwood in Philadelphia's rotation. I don't know if he's capable of replacing the Millwood Philadelphia hoped it was getting, but he's got the ability to pitch as well as Millwood ended up pitching for the Phillies. The problem I have with Philadelphia at the moment is that its rotation contains four pitchers who, while young and full of potential, have all been inconsistent. If all four take a step forward and fulfill their promise next year, the Phillies could have a great rotation. If all four take a step back, then Philadelphia's rotation will be a big weakness. Most likely, the top four will be a little above average and the rotation as a whole will be somewhere in the vacinity of average. With a good offense and a good bullpen, that could very well be good enough to make the playoffs.
San Francisco certainly helped itself by picking up a good, young catcher, but I'm not really excited about this trade for the Giants. Pierzynski will probably help the Giants offense, but he could be hurt by that park and he doesn't have a great defensive reputation. To get him, the Giants gave up a good reliever and two decent pitching prospects when they knew the Twins would eventually have to trade Pierzynski. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't see this as a particularly good trade for the Giants.
A lot have people have been unhappy with the Cubs trading for Lee because they felt the Cubs were giving up a younger, cheaper player who has a chance to become a better player (or at least as good a player) in the near future. I agree that Choi is a good, young player, but I think it's a certainty that Lee will be better in 2004. Because of that, I don't think this is a bad move for the Cubs.
The Cubs should have gone to the World Series last year, but they didn't. Now, they're trying to give themselves the best chance of getting there in 2004, and there's good reason for them to do that. Next season could very well be the last season that Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement are all together in the same rotation. Also, Sammy Sosa (and Moises Alou) is not going to get better on offense as he keeps getting older.
Improving their offense and defense at first base and signing a lights out reliever like LaTroy Hawkins are good moves for a team that awnts to win it all in 2004. The Cubs should have the best rotation in the NL, they'll have a good bullpen with Hawkins joining the three reliable relievers they had last year and their offense will be better with Lee at first base and Corey Patterson back in center field and Aramis Ramirez at third base for the whole season. I don't think Choi is too big a prize to give up in order to help your team's chances of winning the World Series next season.
Boston is in the same situation as Chicago in that the Red Sox should have, or at least could have, gone to the World Series last year and they want to give themselves the best shot at getting there next year. I've already talked about how good Schilling has been, so it's obvious that I think his addition to any team would help said team. That the Red Sox were able to add him without giving up anything they were counting on for help in 2004 is a huge plus.
Any one of the three pitchers the Red Sox traded away for Schilling could end up having a very nice major league career, but none of them were going to help the Red Sox win the World Series in 2004. Schilling can, probably more than any other player they could have acquired. In case you can't tell, I think this is just a superb trade for the Red Sox.
So, having gone through all of that, here is how I would rank the jobs done by the nine teams involved in these six "salary dumps."
1) Boston
2) Minnesota
3) Florida
4) Arizona
5) Philadelphia
6) Chicago Cubs
7) Milwaukee
8) San Francisco
9) Houston
Note: As I was working on this, Montreal "dumped" Javier Vazquez on the Yankees today. I'll have my thoughts on that trade tomorrow, and I'll also post my opinion on the Red Sox signing Terry Francona before the weekend gets here.