What? I don't give a darn...

We've been hearing about the great offensive shortstops for several years now, and it's more true this year than ever. Even with Derek Jeter's injury and Miguel Tejada's slump, there are shortstops putting up ridiculous numbers this season.

There are currently five shortstops with an OPS above .900 who have had enough playing time to qualify. But this year they're not alone. The shortstops' double play partners are carrying big sticks too as there are also five second basemen with .900-plus OPS's who have played enough. Let's take a look at all 10 players, starting with the second basemen.

Bret Boone is easily the best of the bunch. He's hitting .320 with a .388 OBP and a .623 SLG (1.010 OPS) with 17 home runs, 51 runs, 48 RBI and 6 steals in 7 attempts. In the AL, he ranks third in homers, fourth in RBI, second in runs, second in SLG and fourth in OPS. He also has a .346 EqA, which is a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus).

The next four are very close, as the all have an OPS between .930 and .936. I'll list them in what I think is the order of their value on offense this season.

Alfonso Soriano is hitting .307/.364/.572 (.936 OPS) with 18 homers, 50 runs, 42 RBI and 17 steals in 19 attempts. In the AL, he ranks first in homers, seventh in RBI, third in runs, first in steals and 10th in SLG. He has a .323 EqA.

Jose Vidro is hitting .338/.427/.505 (.932 OPS) with five homers, 31 runs, 30 RBI and one steal in one attempt. In the NL, he ranks fourth in batting average and sixth in OBP. He has a .322 EqA.

Marcus Giles is hitting .320/.397/.533 with seven homers, 41 runs, 32 RBI and six steals in seven attempts. He ranks eighth in the NL in runs and has a .318 EqA.

Jeff Kent is hitting .324/.386/.548 (.934 OPS) with nine homers, 37 runs, 43 RBI and four steals in five attempts. In the NL, he ranks eighth in batting average, 10th in SLG and 10th in OPS. He has a .308 EqA.

Soriano is just ridiculous and Kent continues to be one of the best second basemen in history. Boone is proving that he really is a very good hitter and Vidro may be the most underrated player in the game. I've expected great things of Giles for awhile, and I am not at all surprised by his performance.

Now let's look at the shortstops, where you've got two familiar names, two names you should get used to hearing and one name everybody thought they'd be able to forget about by now. Oddly, that last one is at the top of the list.

Alex Gonzalez (FLA) is hitting .335/.382/.598 (.980) with a .316 EqA, nine homers, 23 runs and 38 RBI, although he's been caught on all four of his steal attempts. In the NL, he ranks fifth in batting, sixth in SLG and sixth in OPS. I don't know what to make of Gonzalez. Even after his great first third of the season, he has a .690 career OPS.

Alex Rodriguez is hitting .294/.378/.566 (.944) with a .317 EqA, 16 homers, 41 runs, 38 RBI and six steals in seven attempts. In the AL, he ranks fifth in homers and 10th in runs. It's ridiculous that a shortstop with a .944 OPS is 14 points below his career OPS and 70-80 points below what he's done the last three years.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .323/.388/.528 (.917) with a .313 EqA, eight homers, 54 runs, 23 RBI and 11 steals in 12 attempts. In the NL, he ranks ninth in batting, first in runs and seventh in steals. After teasing us for three seasons, he seems to finally be putting his tremendous talent to good use.

Edgar Renteria is hitting .339/.390/.511 (.902) with a .310 EqA, six homers, 36 runs, 44 RBI and eight steals in 10 attempts. In the NL, he ranks third in batting and 10th in RBI. I expected him to be the best shortstop in the NL this season, and he would be just that most years with this performance.

Nomar Garciaparra is hitting .315/.346/.573 (.919) with a .310 EqA, 10 homers, 50 runs, 40 RBI and five steals in eight attempts. In the AL, he ranks fourth in runs and ninth in SLG. Garciaparra's on pace for a career-high in extra-base hits (95), but his low walk total (and sub-.350 OBP) is what separates him from the other four on this list.

So, with 10 great middle infielders running around at the 60-or-so game mark, there's an obvious follow-up question. Which team has the best offensive middle infield in baseball?

Well, there are four teams on which both middle infielders have an OPS above .800 and another team that just misses. The four teams are Boston, Atlanta, Texas and Montreal, with Seattle very close.

Garciaparra's .573 SLG is preceded nicely in the Red Sox lineup by Todd Walker's .367 OBP (and .805 OPS). This is the best middle infield if you want to get a hitting streak going (Garciaparra had a 26-game hitting streak earlier this season and Walker's currently riding a 20-game streak), but it is not the best offensive middle infield in baseball.

Giles (.930) and Furcal (.917) make up the only middle infield in which both players have an OPS above .900. They both get on base nearly 40 percent of the time and have combined to steal 17 bases in 19 attempts, making them a perfect 1-2 punch at the top of the Braves' order.

Rodriguez does the heavy lifting in the Texas middle infield, but Michael Young is no slouch with an .812 OPS. These Rangers can't compete with Atlanta's middle infield at the moment though, especially when you take home parks into consideration.

Vidro gets on base more than any other middle infielder, and Orlando Cabrera's .837 OPS is a nice complement. The Expos are probably fighting the Rangers for the third-best offensive middle infield right now.

Seattle obviously has Boone, the only middle infielder with an OPS above 1.000 (Alex Gonzalez is the only other one with an OPS above .950), but the almost make the list of team with two .800-plus OPS middle infielders. Carlos Guillen has a .797 OPS after going 0-for-4 yesterday. His OPS was as high as .854 a few days ago.

So, which is the best? Well, it's probably a matter of taste. Do you like two very good hitters (Giles and Furcal) or one great hitter (Boone) and one good hitter (Guillen)? I think I'd have to go with the Braves' duo, especially when you take their speed into consideration.

Of course, all of this could -- and probably will -- change over the next week or two, and I'm sure the list will look very different at the end of the season. However, if you had said at the beginning of the season that the Braves will have the best offensive middle infield in baseball on June 6th, you probably would have gotten laughed out of the room. That's why the Braves are in first place right now.

Turned loose

When Alex Sanchez was traded from Milwaukee to Detroit, I didn't think I'd ever have anything to say about it. Well, turns out I do.

As you've probably heard, Sanchez is very fast. He also is not a good hitter. He had a .316 OBP this season for Milwaukee before being traded and has a .324 career OBP. Speed isn't much good if you're not on base enough to use it.

Compounding his troubles with getting on base were his strange early-season struggles with stealing. In 43 games, Sanchez stole eight bases, but was caught six times as well. Last year, he stole 37 bases and was caught 14 times (72.5 percent success rate).

You can see why the Brewers didn't really want to keep him. There's not much use to a player who doesn't hit well and is having trouble using his only real talent.

Well, a funny thing happened when Sanchez got to Detroit. He remembered how to steal bases. In seven games with the Tigers, he's stolen eight bases (his ESPN.com page says nine, but one was a fielder's indifference) and been caught just once. Even more remarkable is that he's done this while posting a .265 OBP.

I was so surprised to see this, that I decided to take a look at every time Sanchez had been on base for the Tigers, whether he deserved to be there or not (I also figured it wouldn't take very long). Here's what I found.

On May 28th, Sanchez singled in the first inning and then stole second base. He would not reach base again that game.

On May 30th, Sanchez reached on an error in the fourth inning and then stole second base. Again, that was his only appearance on the basepaths that game.

On May 31st, Sanchez was hit by a pitch in the first inning and moved to second base on a sacrifice bunt. He then singed in the fourth, but there was already a runner on second so he couldn't steal.

On June 1st, Sanchez reached on an error in the third inning and then stole second base. He singled in the fifth, and again stole second.

On June 3rd, Sanchez singled in the first inning and was caught stealing second base. He singled again in the sixth, but did not try to steal.

On June 4th, Sanchez singled in the fourth inning and then stole second base. He singled again in the sixth and stole second again. He singled one more time in the ninth and stole second, but the official scorer decided it was fielder's indifference.

Yesterday, Sanchez reached on a fielder's choice in the eighth inning and then stole second and third.

So, Sanchez has found himself standing on first base in a Detroit uniform 12 times. One of those times there was a runner on second already and he couldn't steal. Of the other 11 times, he tried to steal second nine times. He was successful seven times, caught once and not given credit by the scorer once.

I don't really know what to say about that. He's attempted to steal second base about 82 percent of the time when he's had the opportunity. That obviously won't continue, but how much will he slow down?

Detroit can't score runs anyway, so I guess they may as well try to get something going on the basepaths. I never thought I'd say this, but I'll be watching Alex Sanchez with great interest over the coming weeks.

Enough already

I just have one question pertaining to Sammy Sosa and the whole bat-corking incident. Can everybody stop proclaiming players the one to break Hank Aaron's record?

First, Ken Griffey Jr. was a lock to break Aaron's record. He had 398 homers after his age 29 season and had just averaged 52.25 homers per season for the last four years. He only needed to average about 36 homers over the next 10 seasons to break the record.

Even after "slipping" to 40 homers in his first season with Cincinnati, he needed just 318 home runs (about 35 a year for nine years or 40 a year for eight years) to break the record. Well, you know what happened next.

He hit 30 homers over the next two years, has just seven this season and is again injured with a strained right biceps (although he's not expected to miss significant time). He is 33 years old and needs 301 more homers to break the record. Can he still do it? Sure, but it would be tough and he never should have been thought of as a sure thing.

Just as Griffey was being dubbed a sure thing, people were starting to think that Mark McGwire had a shot at breaking the record. He had reached 65 homers two years in a row and averaged 61.25 homers per year for the last four seasons.

At the end of his age 35 season, he needed 234 homers to break the record. If he could keep playing for six more seasons, he would need to average just 39 homers a season to become the new home run king.

Well, he hit 32 homers in just 89 games in 2000, 29 homers in 97 games in 2001 and then retired. He finished with 583 home runs, 173 shy of breaking the record.

Then, Barry Bonds hit 73 homers in 2001. All of the sudden, at the end of his age 35 season, he needed just 189 more homers to break the record. If he played for five more years, he would need to average just 38 home runs per season.

He then hit 46 homers last year, meaning he'd need just 36 homers per season over four years to break the record. Bonds still has a decent shot as he needs 129 more homers and turns 39 next month. If he can stay healthy and play three or four more season he should do it, but those are big ifs.

Then there's Sammy. He was 34 years old coming into this season, had 499 home runs and had averaged 58.4 homers a season for the last five years. He needed 257 home runs to break the record, which works out to about 43 a season if he played six more years.

Well, he has six home runs so far this year and has already missed 17 games. He's going to get suspended for using a corked bat, and he doesn't seem to be the same hitter he was the past five years. He'll probably be lucky to reach 35 homers this year, which would make it very difficult for him to make a run at the record.

Alex Rodriguez is just 27 years old and has 314 home runs. He'll turn 28 next month and is on pace for another 40-plus home run season.

If he has more than 400 homers by age 30 (which seems likely) Vegas may set near-even odds that he'll break the record. And that's not fair to him because infinitely many things could go wrong between 400 and 756 (hell, a lot can go wrong between 314 and 400).

If you want to predict that somebody will break Aaron's record, at least wait until that person gets to 700. Until then, just enjoy the show they're putting on.

I'm sure Hank is.

Kim Connections

The Anaheim Angels connected for three home runs off Sun-Woo Kim in his first appearance of the season yesterday. Anaheim hit seven homers in the game, after hitting six home runs Tuesday.

Before these two offensive outbursts, the Angels were averaging 0.93 home runs per game and 4.98 runs per game. After just two games in San Juan, they're up to 1.13 homers per game and 5.27 runs per game.

Garret Anderson and Jeff DaVanon each hit four homers in the two games.

Anderson hit three yesterday and one Tuesday. He's 7-for-12 with a walk, four homers, five runs and nine RBI so far in the series. Anderson is on pace to have a season eerily similar to last year.

In 2002, he hit .306/.332/.539 with 195 hits, 56 doubles, 3 triples, 29 homers, 93 runs, 123 RBI, 30 walks, 80 strikeouts, 6 steals and 4 times caught. This year he's on pace to hit .316/.343/.570 with 55 doubles, 9 triples, 32 homers, 148 RBI, 29 walks, 87 strikeouts, 9 steals and 6 times caught.

The only difference is about a dozen extra hits, six more triples and three more homers. The 25 extra RBI and 10 fewer runs would be mostly a function of the team and his walk and strikeout rates are about the same. Or are they?

Anderson did walk 30 times last year, but 11 of them were intentional passes. He's walked 10 times in 56 games this year, but has only been intentionally walked once. So while he's walking about the same amount as last year, he's actually being a more selective hitter this year.

DaVanon has hit two homers in each game of this series and has actually hit two home runs in three straight games. I don't know what the record for most consecutive games with multiple home runs is, but I can't imagine it's much more than three.

When you look at DaVanon's track record, you might see somebody who did not post an OPS above .750 until his fourth season in Class A. I, however, see a hitter whose minor league OBP's look like this: .376, .353, .377, .439, .424, .416, .390, .429.

DaVanon had that .376 OBP with a .329 SLG in 57 games at Class A South Oregon in 1995, after being drafted by Oakland. He then had a .353 OBP and a .336 SLG in 89 games for Class A West Michigan in 1996. In 1997, he posted a .377 OBP and a .355 SLG in 119 games for Class A Visalia. He then had a .439 OBP and a 468 SLG in 84 games for Modesto in 1998, his last season in Class A.

Promoted to Class AA Midland in 1998, he had an.424 OBP and a .567 SLG in 100 games before being traded to the Angels. He then had a .416 OBP and a .568 SLG in 34 games for Clsas AAA Edmonton.

Just when it seemed like his career might get going, however, DaVanon missed the entire 2000 season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He returned in 2001 to post a .390 OBP and a .566 SLG for Class AAA Salt Lake before going up to Anaheim, where he had a .689 OPS in 40 games (88 at-bats).

DaVanon went back to Salt Lake last year and had a .429 OBP and a .600 SLG, but in just 25 games as he missed three months with a stress fracture in his lower back.

Now finally healthy, DaVanon is hitting .389/.427/.700 in 36 games with Anaheim. He has eight homers in 90 at-bats (a home run every 11.25 ABs) after hitting seven homers over his first 138 at-bats (a homer every 19.7 ABs). I don't think DaVanon will ever be a superstar, but his minor league numbers show that he can definitely be an above average starter.

Kim went to Montreal last summer when Boston traded for Cliff Floyd, but I don't know that he'll ever amount to much.

Before last year, Kim had never posted an ERA below 4.80 at any level. He did have decent strikeout and walk rates though, as his K/9 IP varied from 7.76 to 7.99 and his K/BB varied from 2.76 to 3.3 over four minor league seasons.

Last year, Kim seemed to be turning the corner as he posted a 2.22 ERA in 89 innings between Pawtucket and Ottawa, but that success masked something disturbing. His K/9 IP ratio dropped to 6.57 and his K/BB dropped to 2.03. This year, those numbers (at Class AAA Edmonton) dropped again, to 4.88 K/9 IP and 1.07 K/BB, and his ERA rose to 4.73.

Kim may never become a useful big-leaguer, but the Expos have another former Red Sox pitcher who has done a nice job for them this year. At least he had been until Tuesday.

Like Kim, Tomo Ohka was touched up for three homers by the Angels this series.

Before Tuesday's start, Ohka had a 4.18 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and 7 of his 11 starts had been quality starts. After allowing eight runs in two innings Tuesday, he has a 5.20 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. Kim has made seven "home" starts, four in Montreal and three in San Juan. In Montreal, he has a 3.65 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In San Juan, he has a 5.63 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. On the road, he has a 6.65 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP.

Anyway, what else do Kim and Ohka have in common besides being former Red Sox pitchers who gave up three home runs to the Angels in San Juan? Well, they were both suspended by the Red Sox for getting into a fight with each other when they were with Pawtucket. Apparently they started fighting during a rain delay in Norfolk and continued fighting later at the hotel.

Of course, the Red Sox have a different Kim on the roster now. Byung-Hyun Kim was very impressive in his first start for Boston, allowing one run on five hits and a walk in seven innings. It was nice to see that he only needed 83 pitches to go seven innings, but it's a little worrisome that he only had two strikeouts. Hopefully it's just a fluke thing and he'll get his strikeouts back up.

It must have been nice for Kim to see the Red Sox scoring 11 runs for him. Arizona didn't score that many in his first five starts this season. The Diamondbacks scored 10 runs in his first five starts and 18 runs in the seven starts he made for them. And people wondered why he was 1-5...

It's a good thing Kim had a good first start, because the Boston media may have pounded Theo Epstein if Kim had gotten pounded. Why? Because the other half of the trade had a good night as well.

Shea Hillenbrand went 3-for-4 with two doubles, a home run and four RBI for Arizona yesterday. So, Hillenbrand has two doubles, a home run and two walks in four games with Arizona.

He only had two doubles in his last 15 games with Boston. He only had one home run in his last 27 games with Boston. He only had two walks in his last 28 games with Boston. This trade may end up looking more even than it really is, at least for this year, because Hillenbrand is going to a good place for offense.

As Lee Sinins mentioned in a recent ATM report, Arizona has been inflating offense more than Colorado this year, you just don't notice it because Arizona's offense stinks. There have been 9.84 runs scored per game in Arizona home games (4.84 for Arizona, 5 for opponents) and 7.41 runs scored per game in Arizona road games (3.78 for Arizona, 3.63 for opponents). That means Arizona's home stadium is inflating scoring by about 33 percent (Coors Field has been increasing offense by about 32 percent this year).

Since Fenway Park is actually decreasing offense by about 15 percent (there have been 10.85 runs score per game in Boston home games and 12.5 per game in Boston road games), Hillenbrand's numbers are likely to go up, but that doesn't mean he's really hitting better.

How about that? A post with many Red Sox mentions that's only briefly about the Red Sox. Sometimes it's neat how things are connected in baseball.

Perspective

As you may have noticed, my trip to Pittsburgh did not go quite as I would have liked.

It started raining around 2 p.m. yesterday, just when I crossed from New York into Pennsylvania. It continued raining with varying intensity for the rest of my drive to the hotel I was staying at last night.

Of course, when I got to the hotel, they had not received my reservation from hotels.com. So, I had to wait while they found me a room. After I had finally finished checking in, the rain continued as I drove through bumper-to-bumper traffic all the way to PNC Park.

I was worried about something else as I was driving to the park, however. They were doing construction on the only route I had directions for, which made things more difficult for me. I was able to find the park without much problem, but I thought things might be tougher on the way back to the hotel. I decided not to worry about it and enjoy the baseball game I hoped I would see.

Of course, there was no baseball game. After walking around the park for awhile, I got to my seat around 6:15. The tarp was not covering the infield and the players were warming up, but it was still raining.

Nomar Garciaparra came out to sign some autographs and after awhile, I realized there were no longer a lot of people around him. I decided to go see if I could get an autograph, but he stopped signing about five feet before he got to me. Of course, it's my fault that I don't already have a Nomar autograph. A few years ago at Spring Training, Wendell Kim was signing autographs and I figured, "What the heck, I'll have him sign the program." Then, Nomar came out and went to the person standing just to the right of me, with the intention of working his way toward the outfield (meaning I was second in line). I had a clean ball in my pocket, but for some reason I gave him my hat and a crappy Sharpie. You can barely see the autograph.

Anyway, shortly after Nomar went back into the dugout, they put the tarp back on the infield. I sat in my seat until about 7:30, at which point I was thoroughly soaked and decided to go stand where it was dry.

I stood there, talking to people every now and then and walking around to see more of the ballpark occasionally, for awhile. Around 8:30, somebody reecited Casey at the Bat -- or played a tape of it -- over the loudspeaker. When the fans realized it wasn't an announcement about the game, they booed the poem lustily.

About 15 minutes later, the fans thought they had reason to cheer when two people in Pittsburgh uniforms came out to play catch. Those cheers quickly turned to jeers when people realized they were just bat boys.

It was around 9 p.m. when Stacy, my girlfriend, called to tell me that Sammy Sosa had been ejected for using a corked bat (for some insight into the incident, go see what The Cub Reporter has to say. Christian also provides links to several stories about the incident). I went back out into the rain so I could hear her better, and realized that it was barely raining anymore. I mean, so little precipitation as to make the word "drizzle" an overstatement.

The rain continued to be very light, but the game was postponed anyway at 9:45.

I had a hotel room last night and the day off today, so I could have stayed to see the game if it had been made up as a day/night doubleheader with the first game at 1 p.m. Instead, they decide to have a twi-night doubleheader with the first game at 5 p.m. I have to work tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. and had I stayed for the game I probably wouldn't have made it back to Rochester until after 2 a.m., so I decided to just cut my losses.

Ah, but my night was not over yet. You'll recall that I was worried about my drive from the park back to the hotel and, indeed, it was a problem. It took me about 30 minutes in stop-and-go traffic to get to the ballpark from the hotel. With very little traffic most of the way, it took me an hour to get from the park back to the hotel.

As you might imagine. I was very, very angry when I finally arrived in my room.

After venting on the phone with Stacy for awhile, I turned on ESPN (I had driven all day to watch a baseball game, so I was determined to see at least a little bit of baseball) and then decided to take a bath and read some more of Moneyball.

While I soaked in the hot water and soaked up the words of Michael Lewis, my anger vanished. I relaxed, and forgot all about my long day.

I'm only a little more than halfway done with the book (I'm a very slow reader, which is most annoying since there are so many things I want to read), but I can already tell you that it's a great book.

The best thing I can say about it is that it makes me feel like I can be a better person. That if I think for myself as often as possible and challenge what's accepted whenever I can, a whole new world of possibility will open up to me.

It is a wonderful story, but it's not really about Billy Beane -- although he is a main character. It's not about Paul DePodesta or Scott Hatteberg or any individual person. It's not even about the Oakland A's -- although they are the focus of the book.

It's about a way of doing things. It's about being innovative and efficient. It's about not accepting what's been done before as the best way to do things and -- perhaps more importantly -- not trusting your own solution as the best possible answer to a question.

As I read the book, I couldn't help thinking of another book. A book that also made me feel like I could be a better person. That book is Tuesdays with Morrie by Mitch Albom.

Like Moneyball, Tuesdays with Morrie is written by the author in the first person and is about his interaction with the subject of the book. In this case, the subject is Morrie Schwartz, Albom's favorite professor from college, who is dying.

The book is about Albom's meetings every Tuesday with Morrie (just as they had met on Tuesdays when Albom was in college), but it is not really about the meetings. It is about how to live. Specifically, how to live life to its fullest. How to be a better person, both for yourself and for the people around you.

As I read Moneyball and thought about Tuesdays with Morrie, I couldn't help but feel silly for ever being angry in the first place.

I remembered that I am very lucky to have a girlfriend with whom I am very much in love (and who has taken to my request that she follow baseball at least a little so much that she thought to call me and let me know about Sosa).

I remembered that I am lucky to get along well with her family members, with whom we are going to see a movie tonight that I expect to thoroughly enjoy (Finding Nemo, in case you're curious).

I realized that I'm lucky to have jobs -- even if they are not the jobs I would have in my dream world -- that allow me to take trips like these -- even if this one did not work out as I had hoped it would.

Finally, I remembered that the reason I wanted to make the trip in the first place was to see PNC Park. It just happened that the first game my schedule would allow me to see was a game against the Red Sox.

And I did see the park, and it was wonderful.

In fact, as I walked over the Roberto Clemente bridge, right down the middle of the road, with Pirates and Red Sox fans all around me, I couldn't help but grin as we passed under the banner that read, "Welcome to 1903."

In case you didn't know, it was Turn Back the Clock Night. The teams were both wearing uniforms from 1903, the year Boston and Pittsburg (not a typo, there was no 'h' then) met in the first World Series. The park staff and even the press were dressed in clothing that might have been commonplace in the early 20th century.

There was a four-piece brass band playing and a barbershop quartet singing, and the rain hardly seemed to matter at first.

Would I make the trip again if I knew that it would happen as it happened? Probably not. But I don't regret that I went, and getting angry about it certainly wasn't going to fix anything.

Because I'm a slow reader, I don't often read a book more than once. But I may just read Tuesdays with Morrie again sometime soon, and I'm sure I'll read Moneyball again.

In fact, if I was told I had to pick just two books that I could read for the rest of my life, those might very well be my selections. There are wonderful lessons to be learned from these books. Lessons about how to live life and solve problems. When things go wrong, it's nice to have a book to remind you that it's not the end of the world.

A dying man living beautifully and a poor team winning marvelously. I can't think of any better examples of the greatness of life than those.

Back in Time

I'm going to make one post this morning without any links to the players I mention before I head out to Pittsburgh. Please wish along with me that tonight's game does not get rained out; I'm not driving out to Pittsburgh and back because I like the city...

Anyway, I wanted to ask a question to get things started. What's the only division in baseball with four winning teams?

If you said the AL East, then you're really paying attention. If you know that this is the latest four AL East teams have had a winning record at the same time since 1998, then you really know your AL East. At the end of the day on June 2, 2003 (yesterday), the New York Yankees were 33-23, the Boston Red Sox were 31-24, the Toronto Blue Jays were 32-26 and the Baltimore Orioles were 28-27. At the end of the day on September 20, 1998, those same four teams were all above .500. Let's take a look those teams five years ago.

The Orioles were 78-77. Had they won four of their last seven games, the AL East could have ended the season with four winning teams. Instead, they went 1-6 to finish 79-83.

Rafael Palmeiro led that Baltimore offense, hitting .296 with a .379 OBP and a .565 SLG. He had 43 home runs and 121 RBI in 162 games. Eric Davis his .327/.388/.582 with 28 homers and 89 RBI in 131 games, and Chris Hoiles hit .262/.358/.476 in 93 games, 83 of them as a catcher. The pitching staff was obviously anchored by Mike Mussina, who went 13-10 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 175 strikeouts in 206.1 innings pitched.

That was the last of the three seasons the Orioles had Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar, Cal Ripken Jr. and Mussina on the team together. Palmeiro and Alomar left after that season, Mussina went to the Yankees after the 2000 season and Ripken retired after the 2001 season.

Toronto was 83-73 on September 20, 1998 and went 5-1 the rest of the way to finish 88-74. Amazingly, the Blue Jays have won fewer games every year since, but only lost 10 wins from 1998 to 2002.

Toronto's offense was led by Carlos Delgado's breakout season. Delgado hit .292/.385/.592 with 38 home runs and 115 RBi in 142 games. Shawn Green hit .278/.334/.510 with 35 homers and 100 RBI in 158 games, and Jose Canseco hit .237/.318/.518 with 46 home runs and 107 RBI in 151 games. Tony Fernandez had the first of the two best seasons of his career at age 36, hitting .321/.387/.459 in 138 games. The ace of the pitching staff was Roger Clemens, who went 20-6 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 271 strikeouts in 234.2 innings to win the Cy Young Award.

The Red Sox were 86-68 and won six of their last eight games to finish 92-70 and win the AL wild card. Since I'm not old enough to remember 1986, 1998 may be my most bittersweet memory of the Red Sox, but I'll discuss that a little bit later.

The Red Sox really only had two great hitters. Mo Vaughn hit .337/.402/.591 with 40 home runs and 115 RBI in 154 games. If Vaughn ever deserved to win an MVP award, it was in 1998, not in 1995 (when he actually did win). Nomar Garciaparra followed up his Rookie of the Year season with a .323/.362/.584 performance in 143 games. He hit 35 home runs and had 122 RBI to finish second in the MVP voting.

Boston's pitching staff had a great starter and a great closer. Pedro Martinez went 19-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 251 strikeouts in 233.2 innings to finish second to Clemens in Cy Young voting. Tom Gordon saved 46 games with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP with 78 strikeouts in 79.1 innings.

Then there were the Yankees. New York was 107-47 on September 20 and went 7-1 to finish at 114-48. The Yankees swept the Rangers in the division series, best the Indians in six games in the ALCS and swept the Padres in the World Series.

Ten Yankees hitters played in at least 100 games that year and only three had an OPS below .825. Only one of those three -- Chad Curtis (.715 in 151 games) -- had an OPS below .765. Chuck Knoblauch had a .766 OPS in 150 games and Tim Raines had a .778 OPS in 109 games. The other seven were Bernie Williams (.997 OPS in 128 games), Darryl Strawberry (.896 OPS in 101 games), Paul O'Neill (.882 OPS in 152 games), Derek Jeter (.865 OPS in 149 games), Tino Martinez (.860 OPS in 142 games), Scott Brosius (.843 OPS in 152 games) and Jorge Posada (.825 OPS in 111 games). As a team, the Yankees had an .822 OPS and scored 5.96 runs per game compared to the league average of a .769 OPS and 5.01 runs per game.

The Yankees had three starting pitchers with an ERA+ above 125. David Cone went 20-7 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with 209 strikeouts in 207.2 innings and had a 126 ERA+, David Wells went 18-4 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 163 strikeouts in 214.1 innings and a 128 ERA+ and rookie Orlando Hernandez went 12-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with 131 strikeouts in 141 innings and a 143 ERA+. The closer, of course, was Mariano Rivera, who saved 36 games with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with just 36 strikeouts in 61.1 innings.

How many players on the rosters of those four teams now were on the roster in 1998? 18 total.

Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera are still with the Yankees and David Wells is back after a couple detours. Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon, Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield and Derek Lowe are still with the Red Sox. Carlos Delgado, Shannon Stewart, Kelvim Escobar and Roy Halladay are still with the Blue Jays. Finally, only two Orioles remain from 1998 -- Jerry Hairston Jr. and Sidney Ponson.

There is a difference between today's AL East and the AL East of September 20, 1998. This AL East has just the third-highest combined winning percentage, while that AL East had far and away the best.

The combined winning percentage of the AL East today is .520. The AL West (.553) and NL East (.541) are both significantly better as no division is really close to being right at .500 (the NL Central is the closest at .482).

The combined winning percentage of the AL East then was .538, much better than the NL Central (.511) and the NL West (.505). The AL West was almost exactly even that year at .499.

Want another similarity between today and that day? The only division with only one winning team today is the AL Central (which has a .438 winning percentage, easily the worst in baseball) and the only division with only one winning team that day was the AL Central (which had a .465 winning percentage, the worst in baseball). The winning team today is the Twins (31-24), that day it was the Indians (87-67).

And now, about the heartbreak of 1998.

As I said, while the Yankees were winning more than 70% of their games, the Red Sox were doing well enough to make the playoffs themselves. Since the rules prevent teams from the same division meeting in the first round, the Red Sox faced the Indians in the ALDS.

Pedro (7 IP, 6 H, 3R, 8K), Vaughn (2 HR, 7 RBI) and Nomar (HR, 4 RBI) led the Red Sox to an 11-3 victory in game one. The Indians won the next two games, however, to take a 2-1 lead and leave Red Sox manager Jimy Williams to make an unpopular decision.

Rather than start Pedro on short rest to try to even the series, Williams decided to use Pete Schourek in game four. He figured that the Red Sox needed to win both games anyway, so why not let the ace pitch in a game five with full rest.

The plan worked brilliantly as Schourek pitched 5.1 shutout innings, allowing two hits and four walks. Derek Lowe came in and retired the next five batters, and the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead into the top of the eighth inning.

Williams then gave the ball to Tom Gordon, who had set a Major-League record with 43 consecutive saves dating back to April 14th of that year, to pitch the final two innings. Gordon got the first out in the eighth, but then he gave up a single to Kenny Lofton. Omar Vizquel followed that with another single and Lofton stole third to put the tying run 90-feet away with just one out. David Justice did more than tie the game, he cracked a two-run double to right field to give the Indians a 2-1 lead.

Boston wasted a one-out double by Vaughn in the bottom of the eighth and went quietly in the ninth and the season was over.

I was inconsolable after that game, but I think that loss probably made Boston's comeback from two games down against the Indians in 1999 that much sweeter.

Here's hoping 2003 doesn't provide Red Sox fans as much anguish as 1998 did. Playing tonight's game in Pittsburgh would be a good start (weather.com says it's going to rain until about 9 tonight).

Tale of two months

I regret to say that this short post will be my last today. I had hoped to make at least two or three longer ones, but I got caught up in reading Moneyball and now I don't have much time for posting.

Anyway, I wanted to show you two one-month performances.

A - 106 AB, 39 H, 3 BB, 27 K, 2/5 SB
B - 105 AB, 33 H, 6 BB, 17 K, 5/5 SB

Which of those would you rather have? A hit for a higher average, but B controlled the strike zone better and was much better on the basepaths.

I suspect at least some of you already know that A is what Rocco Baldelli did in April and B is what he did in May. If you knew that, then you also knew that Baldelli hit .368 with a .389 OBP and a .509 SLG in April, but just .314/.348/.438 in May.

The difference is that Baldelli had six more hits in April, four more extra-base hits in April and, while he walked three fewer times in April, he was hit by a pitch twice in April and not at all in May.

Why am I bringing these two months up? Because Baldelli's performance in May gives me reason to think that he'll not only become a great player, but that he'll finish with good numbers this season.

You see, when I see a 21-year-old hitting .368 with almost no regard for the strike zone, I think that he's getting quite lucky and while likely slump magnificently. When I see a 21-year-old hitting .314 with a moderate understanding of the strike zone (if Baldelli performed like he did in May for 162 games, he would walk about 40 times), I think that he's somebody to keep an eye on and expect great things from.

I'm very excited to see that Baldelli is still on pace for well over 200 hits (218), but I'm much more excited to see if his walk total takes another step forward in June. I'm also excited to see if he can continue to use his speed to its fullest on the basepaths.

Housekeeping

I decided it was time to make some changes to the column on the right, and I wanted to let you know what I did.

First, I put my AOL Instant Messenger screen name up there. I'm online quite frequently and am always up for talking about baseball. I should warn you, however, that I'm not real good at remembering to put up away messages. So, if you IM me and I don't answer, it's because I'm not there not because I'm ignoring you. Also, if I'm at work I may need to stop talking mid-conversation without telling you (I'm a secretary, and if a professor comes in, I need to drop what I'm doing and pay attention to them).

The next thing I added is a little thing to tell you what I'm reading. A lot of other people are doing this, so I figured I may as well too now that I'm only working 40 hours a week and I actually have time to read books again. Of course, right now I'm reading the same thing everybody else is reading, or has recently read.

Finally, I added 10 new links. The first one is in "My Favorite Sites." Most of you already know about Baseball-Reference.com, and you should know about it if you don't already. It's an invaluable place to find the stats for any baseball player in history and also has a ton of other information. I probably use it to help with at least 75% of my posts.

I also added four blogs to my "Good Team-related Blogs" section. The Clark & Addison Chronicle is a blog by Jason Steffens about the Chicago Cubs. Redsfaithful's Baseball Blog is a blog about the Cincinnati Reds by JD Arney. Shea Daily is a blog about the New York Mets written by Damien, a fan from Australia. The Southpaw is a blog by Matthew Durham about the San Francisco Giants.

Finally, I added a new section, "More Good Blogs," which currently has five blogs. Baseball Blogs is a compilation of a lot of other sports blogs. If you have a blog and aren't listed there yet, head over and say hi to Todd Muchmore. It really is a neat thing he's doing. Baseball News Blog is another excellent compilation blog, with more links than you could possibly need. Futility Infielder is Jay Jaffe's excellent baseball site, it really is more than just a blog. Mike's Baseball Rants is Mike Carminati's rants about baseball, including his excellent Joe Morgan chat reviews. The Yin Blog is a blog about everything -- sports, law, politics, movies, TV shows, books and more.

For those of you who are interested in knowing, Stacy (my girlfriend) and I very much enjoyed our trip to Toronto -- even though the Red Sox lost -- and we did not catch SARS. The game on Sunday was a fun one to be it if you were not a fan of either team as neither pitching staff seemed to want to win the game.

I probably deserve some of the blame from anybody who is superstitious because, in the middle of the third inning, I thought to myself, "Well, I'm not happy that they lost four in a row, but at least they'll win the game I'm at." Oy vey...

If you like doubles, this was the game to be at. There were 16 of them -- eight by each team -- and they came in just about every variety. Ground rule, off the wall, down the line, blooper that three players converge on and can't catch, you get the idea. Each team should have had nine doubles, but poor decisions by outfielders near the wall turned one double into a triple for each club.

The goat of the day on offense for the Red Sox was Jason Varitek. Trailing 9-7 in the seventh inning, Varitek pinch-hit for Doug Mirabelli with two outs and the bases loaded and struck out. Varitek came up again in the ninth with the bases loaded, this time with one out and the Red Sox down 11-8. I would have taken anything over what he did, which was ground into a double play to end the game.

The coolest play of the game came in the fourth inning. Johnny Damon led off with a hard shot just inside the first-base bag. Carlos Delgado dove to his left to field the hard grounder, but when he tried to get up, he fell down. Instead of trying to flip the ball to the pitcher, he crawled to the bag and slapped it with his glove just before Damon got there. Nice to see your star player willing to do anything to get the out and he got two nice ovations (one right after the play and one after the replay was shown on the Jumbotron).

That's it from me for now. I'll probably be back with a post or two this afternoon, so stop back then. I would also like to thank everybody who contributed to the nearly 1,400 hits I got in May. Hopefully, I can make like Aaron Gleeman and get more visitors every month.

Boston's two-step program

Ladies and gentlemen, what we're offering here today is a special, one-of-a-kind, limited-time program, guaranteed to work. This program has been developed and recently used to perfection by the Boston Red Sox, one of the great franchises in major league baseball.

Tell me now, if it's good enough for the Red Sox, isn't it good enough for you? Of course it is.

I know what you're thinking, besides the fact that you're lucky to be in the position you're in. You're thinking: What exactly is this amazing program and how can I get it? Well, I'm going to tell you.

You eager, young managers out there will want to pay special attention while I describe what this program can do for you and your ballclub. It really is quite impressive and, as I said before, guaranteed to work.

Have you ever been running your team, going along at a nice, steady clip and thought to yourself, "Hey, we haven't been swept in awhile, maybe it's about time we were."

Of course you have. Everybody has! The problem is: How do you get swept? It's not always that easy to do.

Well, the Boston Red Sox have figured out a foolproof method for getting swept and they want to share it with everybody because it's so damn impressive how this thing works. Can I say damn on the air? I'm not sure, but I don't care -- I'm just so damn excited by this program we're offering today.

Okay, I can tell you're all excited about this program. Who wouldn't be? Now you want to know how you can get your hands on it -- and I don't blame you.

Well, how much would you expect a program like this to cost?

One hundred dollars? Maybe if it were available in a fancy baseball store, but not here.

Fifty dollars? It would be a steal for fifty dollars, but we're not even charging that much.

For a limited time only, we're offering this program, absolutely FREE! That's right, no charge to you, now or ever.

I know what you're thinking -- this can't be for real? Well, folks, it is for real. The Boston Red Sox have developed such an amazing program that we feel it would just be a crime not to share it with you at absolutely no charge.

In fact, rather than make you sign up or mail something in, we're going to reveal the program right here before your eyes. Can you believe that? I know I can't, but it's true!

So, here it is, ladies and gentlemen. Write this down if you need to, maybe pop a tape in the VCR and record this so you have it to look at forever. Here is Boston's two-step program for getting swept in a series.

Step 1 - Allow double-digit runs in each game of said series.

Step 2 - Do not score double-digit runs in any game of said series.

Yes, folks, it's just that easy. Sure, there are other methods for getting swept and some of them probably work fine, but no other method is guaranteed to work like this one is.

Just try it out for yourself and you won't be disappointed. You also won't be disappointed to know that we're not done here today.

That's right, we have more to give you!

Sure, getting swept is nice, but isn't it better if you really aggravate your fans. Sure, your fans will probably be upset that you got swept, but is that enough?

Not for me, it's not. For my money, I want to really piss off my fans, but this doesn't cost any money.

That's right, this extra, bonus step is also absolutely free!

Excuse me for one second, folks, I need to take a sip of water. This whole thing is just making me so excited. Here we have a program you won't find anywhere else PLUS a special, bonus step you won't find anywhere else and it's all FREE!

I know what you're thinking -- show us the bonus step. And I don't blame you.

I'd be real eager to hear this special step too if I were you. You've already seen how impressive the two-step program is and now you want to hear this bonus step before you faint from anticipation.

Well, I'm going to tell you the secret step, then. I wouldn't want to keep you waiting any longer than you have to for such a great way to anger your fans.

And not just some fans, either. This step will annoy fans young and old, male or female, diehard or casual. It's just that good!

So, here it is. The special, bonus step in Boston's program for getting swept in a series.

Step 3 - Leave at least 20 men on base in the series and ground into at least one double play each game of the series.

Isn't that great, ladies and gentlemen? Of course it is. Just think how upset your fans will be after that.

They may still root for you, but they sure won't be as optimistic about you and that's exactly what you want. If you really want to crush their spirits, I have one final step to show you.

I'm getting word that we're running out of time, so I'm just going to show you the last step, the step for crushing the spirit of your fans.

Step 4 - Take a 6-0 lead in the last game of the series before completely blowing the game.

Isn't that great, folks?

That's all the time we have here. Take care and remember to think kindly of the Boston Red Sox for bringing us this amazing program.

State of the Red Sox Saturday

Well, I guess there's good news and bad news. The bad news obviously is that the Red Sox have lost three games in a row for the first time all season and have fallen back into second place, half a game behind the Yankees. Also bad is that they're only a game ahead of Oakland and 2.5 games ahead of Toronto.

The good news is that the Red Sox just got some pitching help and got rid of their most overrated player before he lost his overratedness (if that's a word). Anyway, let's go through the team and see what's what.

Starting Rotation

This has been the biggest weakness of the team recently. Pedro Martinez is still hurt and Bruce Chen has been ineffective in two spot starts. There had been hope that Pedro would start Tuesday in Pittsburgh (which I would have loved since I'll be at that game), but Byung-Hyun Kim is getting that start instead. I haven't seen anything saying when Pedro might get back since the trade happened.

Derek Lowe continues to be great at home and not so great on the road, although I'll take six runs in 15 innings over two starts anytime. He's still walking too many people, so hopefully he'll be fine once he gets his control under control.

Tim Wakefield made two decent starts against the Yankees, three runs on four hits and two walks in seven innings the first time and three runs on four hits and six walks in five innings the second time. He's now 5-2 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. I'd obviously like him to lower those numbers, but I can deal with the way he's pitching so far.

Casey Fossum has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts and faces a very dangerous Toronto lineup today. Despite having a higher ERA (4.92) than Wakefield, Fossum has a lower WHIP (1.36). I still think Fossum has great potential, but only three of his 10 starts this season have been quality starts. Hopefully, he'll have put everything together in time for the stretch run in September.

And then there's John Burkett. You may be expecting me to complain about Burkett, but I'm not going to. I'll admit that I never feel comfortable with him on the mound, but if you take out two of his starts against Toronto he's 3-1 with a 4.42 ERA.

I was thinking the other day that the Red Sox should sign Chuck Finley after the amateur draft because they wouldn't need to give up a pick for him then, but they may not need him. With Pedro (when he's healthy), Lowe, Wakefield, Fossum, Burkett, Kim (until he becomes the closer), Chen and Robert Person, the Red Sox have eight people in the majors who can start if needed. Boston also has Ryan Rupe (1.91 ERA) and Bronson Arroyo (3.92) doing nice work in Pawtucket, and they could come up for a start or two if needed. If Finley's still in shape he's a nice pitcher, but I'd rather see the Red Sox save the rest of their budget and try to get a real impact player at the deadline.

Bullpen

Ramiro Mendoza recently got his ERA under 7.00 for the first time since the opening weekend, but he's since allowed six runs on 16 hits and two walks in his last six innings. His ERA is 7.34, his WHIP is 1.96 and I always cringe when he comes in a game that has less than a three-run margin one way or the other.

Mike Timlin has had a nice month, posting a 3.09 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 11.2 innings. The surprising thing is that his WHIP in May isn't much better than it was in April. For the season, Timlin has a 3.90 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He's only struck out 17 batters in 30 innings (5.1 K/9IP), but he's only walked one batter all season. You've gotta love a relief pitcher who doesn't come in and put men on base.

Brandon Lyon has had a tough May (4.91 ERA), but he's been better than any of us could have expected. Plus, what happened against the Yankees wasn't really his fault. Yes, he gave up the double to Hideki Matsui, but doubles usually result in a runner being on second, not third. Without the bad throw, Lyon could have just intentionally walked Alfonso Soriano and tried to get Jason Giambi to hit into a double play.

Don't look now, but Alan Embree has been lights out recently. In his last four appearances (4.1 IP), he's allowed no runs on two hits and no walks with four strikeouts. In his last nine appearances (8.1 IP), he's allowed one run on six hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. His ERA is down from 14.40 to 6.09.

When Kim becomes the closer, this bullpen could be a real strength with Lyon, Timlin and Embree pitching the seventh and eighth innings. I think Lyon could develop into a relief ace, but it's hard to stick him in that role right away at the age of 23 in the middle of a pennant race after starting his whole career. Better to let him develop as one of the setup men in front of a proven closer (who happens to be just 24 and under our control for two years after this. How could anybody think Arizona won this deal?).

Lineup

Catcher - Jason Varitek is quietly still having a nice season, batting .278 with a .345 OBP and a .496 SLG with six homers and 25 RBI. I really can't think of a catcher I'd want on my team more than Varitek. Doug Mirabelli, on the other hand, should not be playing as much as he is. He's on pace for 200 at-bats, but he's only hitting .250/.269/.391. I like him as Wakefield's regular catcher to keep Varitek from getting beat up and that's it.

First Base - Kevin Millar seems to have settled in with an OPS in the .815-.830 range. It would be nice to see him get that back up to his career .865 mark or so, but I'm just happy to not see Shea Hillenbrand playing first anymore.

Second Base - Todd Walker has been pretty much what I expected. He's hitting .326/.366/.426 and getting criticized more than he should for his defense. I think Freddy Sanchez will be the starting second baseman next year, but it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox offer Walker arbitration to see if they can get a draft pick from another team.

Third Base - Bill Mueller has been a revelation, hitting .386/.442/.621 while playing better defense than Shea Hillenbrand. People talk about the team being hurt the next couple years without Shea, but even if Shea were that good it wouldn't be true. Mueller's signed for next year and the Red Sox have a $2.1 million option (I think the option money goes up to $2.5 million if Mueller gets a certain amount of playing time) for 2005 if Kevin Youkilis isn't ready by then.

Shortstop - Nomar Garciaparra is hitting .306/.338/.548 and I expect him to get back up to his usual, great level of hitting. However, I do have a few questions. First, didn't the Red Sox have an off day on Thursday? Yeah, I thought they did. And don't they have another off day on Monday? Okay, that's what I thought. So why in Hell did Nomar need the day off yesterday? I don't think it would have made a big difference, but it would be nice to see our superstar shortstop play all three games of a series when there's an day off on both sides of the series.

Left field - Boston has one of the best offenses in baseball right now, and Manny Ramirez hasn't even really started to hit yet. He's batting .297/.396/.477 with just seven homers (on pace for 21). One of these days, Manny's going to start one of his super-hot streaks and the Red Sox offense will be even more ridiculous than it already is.

Center field - I don't want to alarm anybody, but is Johnn Damon gonig to be Jose Offerman redux? The Red Sox sign a former Royal to an expensive four-year deal, he has a great first year, slips noticeably in his second year and the Sox are stuck with him for two more seasons. Offerman had an .826 OPS his first year with Boston and slipped to .713 the following year. Damon had a .799 OPS last season, and is at .720 this season.

I don't think it's the same for two reasons. First, except for last year, Damon's been a notoriously slow starter and I think he'll turn it around. Second, even when he's not hitting, Damon helps the Red Sox with his defense. Even when he was hitting, Offerman hurt the Red Sox with his defense.

Right field - Trot Nixon has gone stone cold recently, and is now hitting .288/.377/.439. It was probably unrealistic to think Trot would break out this season, and I expect him to do about what he's always done.

Designated hitter - If you think Mueller's offensive output was the only reason Shea was expendable, then you haven't noticed that David Ortiz is hitting .340/.404/.553 in May and has his OPS up to .797. It will be easier to get him at-bats with Shea gone, and I still think Jeremy Giambi will help the team.

Recap

I like the way the Red Sox roster is composed right now, but I am a little worried about the losing streak heading into interleague play. Luckily, the Red Sox play the Pirates and Brewers first, so hopefully they can avoid their usual interleague slump. I probably won't be making a post tomorrow, as I'm leaving to go to Toronto with my girlfriend, Stacy, in a little while. We're staying up there tonight and going to the game tomorrow. Hopefully we won't catch SARS, but I may get sick anyway if the Red Sox get swept.

Mora needs more love

Aaron Gleeman wrote a very nice piece today on the MVP in each league through a third of the season. He gave his top five for each league, and I agree with nine of his 10 selections. The only one I think he messed up was his choice for the fifth-most valuable player in the AL.

Aaron picked Edgar Martinez for that spot. He does acknowledge that there were several players he could have picked instead of Martinez, but the player I have in mind is not one of the players he mentions.

The guy I think should be fifth is Melvin Mora. Don't laugh. Look at Mora's numbers this season.

Mora is batting .356 with a .457 OBP and a .603 SLG for a 1.059 OPS. He has 13 doubles, seven homers, 25 RBI, 31 runs, 23 walks and 26 strikeouts in 41 games. He's played mostly left field, but has also played second base, shortstop, center field and right field. Mora ranks second in the league in batting average, first in OBP, third in SLG and second in OPS.

Martinez is batting .317/.421/.590 for a 1.011 OPS. He has eight doubles, 12 homers, 44 RBI, 23 runs, 29 walks and 29 strikeouts in 45 games (obviously none in the field). He's 10th in the league in batting, fifth in OBP, fifth in SLG, fourth in OPS, ninth in homers and third in RBI.

Mora has played in four fewer games, but I think that is more than made up for by his defensive versatility and his edge on offense. You might think Martinez gets the edge on offense because of his home ballpark, but Mora's EqA (which takes park factors into account) is .361 and Martinez has a .353 EqA.

So, it seems clear to me that Mora has been more valuable than Martinez, but my intention here was not to take Aaron to task. I really enjoyed his post today, as I do every day. My intention was to talk about Mora, which I've been meaning to do the past three days but am just now getting around to.

Mora signed as a non-drafted free agent with Houston in 1992. He then toiled exclusively in the minor leagues for seven seasons before coming up with the Mets in 1999 at age 27.

Mora's minor-league numbers were pretty uninspiring. He had a .569 OPS in 49 games in Rooke ball. He posted a .746 OPS in 243 Class A games, a .727 OPS in 193 Class AA games and a .749 OPS in 284 Class AAA games.

Mora played 66 games with the Mets in 1999, but he only got 31 at-bats. He wasted those at-bats, batting .161/.278/.161, but got another chance in 2000. He hit ..260/.317/.423 for a .256 EqA in 79 games for the Mets before being traded to Baltimore. Mora played 53 games for the Orioles, hitting .291/.359/.397 for a .258 EqA. Mora then hit .250/.329/.362 for a .259 EqA in 128 games in 2001 and hit .233/.338/.404 for a .273 EqA in 149 games in 2002.

Clearly, this is not a great hitter we're talking about here, so why is he doing so well this season? I have no idea. It's interesting to note that his EqA went up in each season with Baltimore even though his batting average went down. Maybe the hits that weren't falling in before are now and he's continuing to improve his power and plate discipline.

I think it's more likely that Mora will finish with an OPS below .800 than it is that he'll finish with an OPS above 1.000, but I hope I'm wrong. It gets boring when every player follows the same career path, so every now and then it's nice to see a player break out on the other side of age 30.

Whoa nellie!

From the first day's worth of reaction to it, this trade may be able to occupy everybody's time until the trading deadline arrives. From my very scientific research, I estimate that over a million words have already been written about Boston's trading of Shea Hillenbrand to the Diamondbacks for Byung-Hyun Kim. For those of you who want to know more about this trade, I'll help you out with links.

First, there's the generic news story from the AP.

Then we have two ESPN.com writers pretty much disagreeing. Jayson Stark says it's a good trade for both teams, while Rob Neyer writes that it's a steal for the Red Sox.

To see how this affects your fantasy team, check in with Graham Hayes.

To see a Boston fans opinion, go visit Edward Cosette over at Bambino's Curse. Also, check out what Pedro's Posse has to say about the trade.

For lots of stat-based argument and some name-calling, you should read the Clutch Hits link over at Baseball Primer. There were 228 comments the last time I checked.

To read about how relieved Cubs fans are that Hillenbrand isn't going to Chicago, check out what The Cub Reporter has to say.

For those of you who like the mainstream journalists, here are links to Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe, Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald, Mark Gonzales of the Arizona Republic, Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic and Greg Hansen of the Arizona Daily Star.

So, there you go, have fun with all of those opinions. What's that? You want to know what I think about the trade?

Well, let me put it this way. If I had not been covering a road race yesterday when I heard that the trade was official, I would have jumped up on the nearest table and started dancing, singing and making a general fool out of myself due to my excitement about it.

Most of the things I've read hit the nail right on the head. Hillenbrand is a 27-year-old who is unlikely to become much better than he already is, and he ain't that great already. Kim is a 24-year-old who has already been a relief ace and has at least a decent chance of becoming an ace starter.

Also, the Red Sox don't need Hillenbrand. They have Bill Mueller hitting better than Hillenbrand right now and they have Kevin Youkilis with a .460 OBP for Class-AA Portland. The Red Sox do, however, need Kim.

I don't know where they're going to put him and I don't particularly care. He could certainly help the Boston bullpen, but he could also be the second-best starter on the team (and the best uninjured starter) if they put him in the rotation. And whoever gets bumped from the rotation would be better than the worst pitcher currently in the bullpen.

Finally, there's one thing that really bugs me that I haven't really seen touched on. A lot of people are saying the Red Sox are losing a decent third baseman and getting a good pitcher. That, however, isn't quite true. Arizona is getting a decent third baseman and losing a good starting pitcher, but the opposite isn't true for the Red Sox.

How's that? It's because Hillenbrand hasn't strictly been a third baseman for the Red Sox this year. People mention that Hillenbrand's .778 OPS makes him the ninth-best third baseman out of the 23 who have played enough to qualify, but Hillenbrand has only played 78 more innings at third base (242) than at first base (168) and only have 38 more at-bats at third base (108) than at first base (70).

Where would Hillenbrand rank among first baseman in the majors in OPS? 12th, and much closer to 13th (two points) than 11th (25 points). Maybe you decide to look more closely and see that Hillenbrand has an .852 OPS when he plays first. Fine, but that's still a pretty small sample and if you give him credit for that, you have to take away credit for his .689 OPS when he plays third base. Based on those numbers, Arizona's either getting an awful third baseman or a pretty good first baseman.

All I know is that I like the Red Sox roster a lot better this morning than I did yesterday morning. Theo Epstein and company continue to do nothing but impress me.

Unrelated note - While I was covering the road race yesterday, I got to interview a Hall-of-Famer for the second time in my journalism career. Former Buffalo Bills QB Jim Kelly was there on behalf of the Hunter's Hope Foundation (for those of you who don't know, Kelly's son, Hunter, has Krabbe disease and Kelly and his wife, Jill, founded Hunter's Hope to help find out more about the disease) and I got to talk to him for about 10 minutes. He seems like a nice guy and he has one hell of a handshake. The other HOFer I got to interview was baseball great Frank Robinson a couple summers ago (before he started managing the Expos). He was a lot nicer than people told me he would be. It seemed like he had mellowed a bit in his older age.

Lowell on impressive pace

With the Red Sox apparently on the verge of trading Shea Hillenbrand to Arizona, the best chance for a team to improve at third base is Mike Lowell. Lowell was the better choice all along in my opinion, even though he's more expensive than Hillenbrand.

Lowell hit two doubles while going 4-for-7 in yesterday's doubleheader sweep of the Expos. He's now hitting .299 with a .357 OBP and a .616 SLG for a .974 OPS. He has 17 doubles, a triple and 16 home runs, which puts him on pace for 102 extra-base hits (XB hits from now on) this season.

Only 15 times since 1900 has a player banged out at least 100 XB hits in one season. I don't think Lowell will make it 16, but I want to look through the list of 15 anyway.

Not surprisingly, the list begins with Babe Ruth. The Bambino had 119 XB hits in 1921 when he set the record with 59 home runs and also hit 44 doubles and 16 triples. The Sultan of Swat hit .378/.512/.846 for a 1.359 OPS and a 239 OPS+ and would have won the MVP award easily had there been one that year.

Lou Gehrig (no, this list does not read like a "Who's Who in Yankees History." Ruth and Gehrig are the only New Yorkers on the list, they just happen to be the top two on the list) had 117 XB hits in 1927 when he hit 47 homers, 52 doubles and 18 triples. The Iron Horse hit .373/.474/.765 for a 1.240 OPS and a 221 POS+ to easily win the MVP Award. Gehrig also had 100 XB hits in 1930 with 41 home runs, 42 doubles and 17 triples. He hit .379/.473/.721 for a 1.194 OPS and a 203 OPS+ that year (there was no MVP award).

Barry Bonds led the pack in 2001, when four players -- all in the National League -- reached 100 XB hits. Bonds had 107 after setting the record with 73 home runs and also hitting 32 doubles and two triples. He hit .328/.515/.863 for a 1.379 OPS and a 262 OPS+ to win the MVP award going away.

Todd Helton had 105 XB hits that year with 49 homers, 54 doubles and two triples while hitting .336/.432/.685 for a 1.116 OPS and a 160 OPS+ to place ninth in the MVP voting.

Sammy Sosa had 103 XB hits in 2001 with 64 homers, 34 doubles and five triples. Slammin' Sammy hit .328/.437/.737 for a 1.174 OPS and a 201 OPS+ to finish as the MVP runner-up.

Luis Gonzalez's career year in 2001 ended with exactly 100 XB hits -- 57 home runs, 36 doubles and seven triples. He hit .325/.429/.688 for a 1.117 OPS and a 176 OPS+ to finish third in the MVP voting.

Helton's 2001 season made him the only player to reach 100 XB hits in consecutive seasons. Helton had 103 XB hits in 2000 with 42 home runs, 59 doubles and two triples. He hit .372/.463/.698 for a 1.162 OPS and a 158 OPS+ to finish fifth in the MVP voting.

Chuck Klein is the only player besides Helton and Gehrig to reach 100 XB hits in a season twice. Klein had 107 XB hits in 1930 with 40 homers, 59 doubles and eight triples while hitting .386/.436/.687 for a 1.123 OPS and a 159 OPS+. He then had 103 XB hits in 1932 with 38 home runs, 50 doubles and 15 triples while hitting .348/.404/.646 for a 1.050 OPS and a 164 OPS+ to win the MVP award.

Albert Belle had 103 XB hits in 1995 when he became the only player to reach 50 homers and 50 doubles in the same season. "Joey" had 50 home runs, 52 doubles and one triple while .317/.401/.690 for a 1.091 OPS and a 178 OPS+. He should have won the MVP award, but the writers didn't like him and gave it to Mo Vaughn (who hit .300/.388/.575 for a 145 OPS+) instead. Belle finished second.

Hank Greenberg had 103 XB hits in 1937 with 40 home runs, 49 doubles and 14 triples. Hammerin' Hank hit .337/.436/.668 for a 1.105 OPS and a 172 OPS+ while finishing third in the MVP voting. Second baseman Charlie Gehringer hit .371/.458/.520 for a144 OPS+ to win the award and Joe DiMaggio posted a 168 OPS+ (hitting .346/.412/.673) to take second in his sophomore season.

Stan Musial had 103 XB hits in 1948 with 39 home runs, 46 doubles and 18 triples. Stan the Man hit .376/.450/.702 for a 1.152 OPS and a 200 OPS+ to win the MVP award.

The only non-first baseman/outfielder on the list, Rogers Hornsby had 102 XB hits in 1922 with 42 homers, 46 doubles and 14 triples. Rajah hit .401/.459/.722 for a 1.181 OPS and a 207 OPS+ (no MVP award that year).

Finally, Jimmie Foxx had 100 XB hits in 1932 with 58 home runs, 33 doubles and nine triples. Double X hit .364/.469/.749 for a 1.218 OPS and a 205 OPS+ to win the MVP award.

So there you have it, if you're looking for a dozen hitters to associate your name with, you could certainly do a whole lot worse. This group has seven Hall-of-Famers (Ruth, Gehrig, Klein, Greenberg, Musial, Hornsby and Foxx), two certain future Hall-of-Famers (Bonds and Sosa) and one player who would have been a Hall-of-Famer if not for a career-ending injury (Belle).

Those of you who are surprised, as I was, that Ruth only reached 100 XB hits once would probably like to know that he almost made it four times. Ruth had 99 XB hits in 1920 and 1923 and 97 XB hits in 1927. Greenberg had 99 XB hits in 1940 and 98 in 1035 and Belle had 99 in 1998.

Also, in the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that Preston Wilson is on pace for 101 XB hits. He has 20 doubles, a triple and 12 homers. I don't think either Wilson or Lowell will make it, but Lowell's pace is more impressive because (with all respect to Helton's offensive abilities) Colorado helps out a lot.

Walker indeed

In my Around the Majors post last Saturday, I wrote that Larry Walker wasn't slumping as badly as it looked because he was drawing a lot of walks. That was true then, and it's getting ridiculous now.

In his last seven games, Walker is 7-for-13 (.538). Why does he only have 13 at-bats in seven games? Because he's drawn 17 walks in those games and has an .800 OBP and a .923 SLG. When somebody is playing that well on offense, it would be better to just walk him every single time.

Walker is now hitting .272/.442/.497 (.938 OPS) and is on pace to draw 125 walks (his career high is 82 in 2001). If he can get his average above .300 (and he's never had a season in Colorado with at least 100 games played and a sub-.300 average) while staying on pace for about 125 walks, he will finish with some scary numbers.

While I'm talking about a Rockies hitter, I may as well talk about a Rockies pitcher and then the Rockies in general.

Shawn Chacon pitched eight shutout innings last night, allowing two hits and a walk with seven strikeouts, to improve to 7-2 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Those numbers might lead you to believe that he's done most of his pitching on the road, but just the opposite is true.

Chacon is 6-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 51.2 innings at home. He has 40 K's (6.97 K/9IP) and 15 walks (2.67 K/BB) in Colorado. Meanwhile, he is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 18 innings on the road. He has eight K's (4.00 K/9IP) and eight walks (1.00 K/BB) away from Coors. The only thing that makes sense is his four home runs allowed at home and none allowed on the road.

Before this season, Chacon's splits were about what you would expect. He had a 5.77 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP at home and a 4.94 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He had allowed 36 homers in 137.1 innings at home and 15 homers in 142 innings on the road.

Why are his splits so strange this year and will he keep it up? I don't know and I'd have to say I'm doubtful. However, the entire Rockies team has been good at home and bad on the road. The hitters are batting .299/.386/.490 (.876 OPS) at home and .236/.332/.365 (.697 OPS) on the road, which isn't really a surprise. The pitchers, however, have a 4.67 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP at home and a 5.37 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP on the road, while you'd probably expect those to be reversed.

It's no wonder, then, that the Rockies are 20-8 (.714 winning percentage) at home and 6-19 (.240 winning percentage) on the road. Actually, those records are a little more extreme than they should be.

The Rockies have scored 6.8 runs/game and allowed 5.1 runs/game at home, which gives them an expected winning percentage of .641, which works out to 18-10. On the road, they've scored 4.0 runs/game and allowed 5.5 runs/game. That gives them an expected winning percentage of .344, which works out to about 9-16 (8.6-16.4 to be exact).

If the Rockies can keep winning more than 65% of their home games and start winning around 50% of their road games, they will challenge for a playoff spot. On the other hand, if the Rockies keep winning fewer than 35% of their games on the road and start winning around 50% of their games at home, it will be a very long summer in Colorado.

I always like seeing how the Rockies do because they're just so damn unpredictable, and this year isn't any different.

New MVP?

Over at Baseball Musings, David Pinto wrote yesterday that Rafael Furcal is the early front-runner for the NL MVP award.

Furcal is having an amazing season, hitting .341/.406/.565 (.971 OPS) with 10 steals in 10 attempts and playing a tough defensive position in each and every one of Atlanta's games. I don't think this is necessarily a fluke either, but I do think the man who won the last two MVP awards will have something to say about this year's as well.

Barry Bonds went 2-for-3 with a home run and two walks yesterday. He's now hitting .299/.497/.642 (1.139 OPS). Bonds is definitely going to outhit Furcal, but Furcal is probably going to play more games and he plays better defense at a tougher position while providing more production on the basepaths. The question (if this does turn into a two-horse race, which it probably won't) is whether Bonds can outhit Furcal by enoguh to make up for Furcal's other advantages.

Speaking of Bonds, with Roger Clemens going for his 300th victory and everybody wondering where he ranks all-time, I've been thinking again about where Bonds ranks among the greatest players ever. I'm not going to argue for where he ranks right now (it's too soon to really have any idea), but I do want to address whether or not he has any chance of ever overtaking Babe Ruth as the greatest player ever.

The correct answer is that he does not. Rob Neyer likes to write that Ruth is clearly the greatest of all-time because he dominated as a hitter and as a pitcher. Neyer's one of my favorite writers, but he's not right about this. Ruth was only really a pitcher for five years, and he was only a great pitcher for one of those years.

The reason nobody has a chance of ever catching Ruth is that Ruth was a dominant hitter like nobody else could ever be. Bonds has just finished having two of the greatest seasons of all-time, posting a 262 OPS+ in 2001 and a 275 OPS+ last year. Both of those seasons are better than any Ruth ever had, but Bonds had just two other seasons with an OPS+ above 200. He had a 205 OPS+ in 1992 and a 206 OPS+ in 1993.

Wanna guess where those seasons (the third- and fourth-best of Bonds' career) would rank in Ruth's career? 11th and 12th. Ruth had 11 seasons with an OPS+ above 200 (in order -- 255, 239, 239, 227, 226, 220, 219, 219, 211, 208, 201).

Bonds has a career OPS+ of 177 coming into this season. Ruth had a career OPS+ of 207. That means that, for his career, Ruth had an OPS 107% better than the average hitter under the conditions he played in. That is just something that cannot be duplicated and makes Ruth the greatest of all-time even if you pretend he never pitched.

Note - Sorry for the lateness of my first post today. I plan on making at least a couple more this afternoon, so please come back and check them out.

Offensive Pirates

I got so caught up in Nomar Garciaparra's hitting streak that I didn't even notice that Kenny Lofton was also working on a nice streak. As you probably know already, Nomar went 0-for-4 to end his hitting streak at 26 games last night, but Lofton went 3-for-5 to extend his streak to 25 games.

During his hitting streak, Lofton has gone 41-for-101 (.406 average) with eight doubles, four homers, 12 walks, six steals (on eight attempts) and 26 runs scored. Before the streak started he was hitting .205 with a .255 OBP and a .285 SLG for a .539 OPS. Now, he's hitting .312/.375/.455 for an .830 OPS and got a day off today after playing in 17 straight games.

During the month of April (Lofton's streak started in the last game he played in April), I thought Lofton was finished as an offensive producer. Well, his performance in May has proved me wrong.

Lofton is now on pace for 187 hits, 16 homers, 114 runs and 32 steals (in 42 attempts). In his excellent career, Lofton has only scored more than 110 runs twice, he's only had more than 180 hits twice and he's never hit more than 15 homers.

Do I think Lofton will actually reach those totals this season? No, but he's clearly still capable of being a valuable contributor for at least a month at a time (Lofton had very nice numbers in April, July and September last year) and he's been the sparkplug for Pittsburgh's offense recently.

In fact, the previously dismal Pittsburgh offense has gone into high gear the past 10 games. The Pirates averaged 3.7 runs per game and went 16-25 in their first 41 games. In their last 10 games, they've averaged 6.4 runs per game and gone 6-4. Lofton isn't the only hitter on a tear, either.

Aramis Ramirez went 23-for-45 (.511 average) with a homer, two doubles, two walks and 11 RBI during those 10 games and currently has an 11-game hitting streak. His numbers are up from .219/.288/.311 (.599 OPS) before the 10 games to .288/.340/.387 (.727 OPS) now.

Reggie Sanders went 7-for-23 with three walks, two home runs and three doubles in the seven games he played during the 10-game stretch. He's up from .238/.302/.421 (.723 OPS) to .252/.321/.476 (.797 OPS), but is currently hobbled by a sore right hamstring.

Brian Giles went 13-for-37 (.351 average) with 11 walks, two homers, two doubles, nine RBI and 10 runs during the 10 games. He's up from .222/.410/.381 (.791 OPS) to .268/.437/.454 (.891 OPS). You wanna talk about patience? Before today's game, Giles still had more walks (27) than hits (26) this season.

Even Kevin Young is getting in on the act. Young went 2-for-7 with six walks (.615 OBP), a home run (.714 SLG), four runs and four RBI in his brief playing time during the 10-game stretch. He's up from .214/.254/.321 (.575 OPS) to .222/.319/.365 (.684 OPS).

The Pirates have even scored four runs today against Mark Prior, who entered the game with the sixth-best ERA (2.61) in the NL. Prior had only allowed two runs on five hits, no walks and eight strikeouts through seven innings, but Dusty Baker decided to send him back out for the eighth and he finished the game with a 122 pitches thrown and a lost quality start.

Meanwhile, Jeff D'Amico pitched pretty well, allowing five hits and no walks with five strikeouts in seven innings. The problem is that he gave up two home runs, and they came with the other three hits on base. The Cubs went down in order in five of the seven innings D'Amico pitched, but they got two hits before a second-inning two-out home run and a double preceding a fourth-inning home run.

The Cubs scored five runs in the first eight innings, but the only runner they left on base was Mark Grduzielanek, who walked with two outs in the eighth.

Assuming they don't score in the ninth, the Pirates will have scored 6.2 runs per game in their last 11 contests. Hopefully their bats will have cooled off by the time I get to PNC Park to watch them take on the Red Sox. The nice thing about living in Rochester is that there are three parks within a 3-4 hour drive and a few other parks close enough to drive to for a short trip. I've wanted to see Pittsburgh's new park since it opened and a game against Boston is enough for me to drive out by myself on my day off (Tuesday) and take a day off from work on Wednesday to drive back.

Holes in the lineup

Before this season started, I thought the Oakland Athletics would have problems scoring runs because they would have three big holes in their lineup. The holes I was thinking of were Terrence Long, Chris Singleton and Ramon Hernandez.

Well, the A's are struggling a bit to score runs, but it's not Hernandez's fault. Hernandez currently has the third-best OPS on the team at .831. He's hitting .288 with a .352 OBP and a .479 SLG with six homers and 20 RBI (that puts him on pace for 19 HR and 65 RBI). That's startling production from a player with a career .710 OPS.

Hernandez played 40 games in 1999 and hit .279/.363/.397 for a .760 OPS. Since then, his best year was 2001, when he hit .254/.316/.408 for a .724 OPS. Those numbers represent his career high in each of those four categories. His career high in home runs is 15 and in RBI is 62. Last year was a particularly awful season for Hernandez, as he hit .233/.313/.335 for a putrid .648 OPS.

So, if Oakland's worst hitter from last year has improved his OPS by almost 180 points, then how are the A's struggling on offense? Well, first I should prove that they are struggling on offense.

Oakland has scored 231 runs, which is 10th in the American League. The A's are averaging 4.62 runs per game, which puts them on pace to score 748 runs this year. Last year, the A's scored 800 runs (4.94 per game). So, they are struggling, but are the main offenders the other two players I thought would drag them down?

Not really. Long is not a good offensive player, that's for sure. He never has been and he probably never will be. However, his pathetic .707 OPS is still about 20 points better than his .688 OPS from last season. So, while he's probably not helping them score extra runs, he's not the reason they're scoring fewer than last year.

What about Singleton? Well, Singleton is essentially replacing David Justice in Oakland's lineup. Justice got 398 at-bats last year and Singleton is on pace for 388 at-bats this year. Justice hit .266/.376/.410 for a .785 OPS and Singleton is hitting .308/.341/.417 for a .758 OPS. That's certainly a drop-off, but it's not what's causing a difference of potentially 50 runs at the end of the year.

Okay, I'll stop pretending the answer to this question is a tough one. The obvious reason the A's are scoring fewer runs is Miguel Tejada. Tejada is batting .220/.283/.390 with a .673 OPS after leading the team with an .861 OPS last year. I always thought Tejada was overrated because of his home run and RBI totals (he averaged about 32 homers and 120 RBI the last three years, but he had just an .831 OPS over those three season), but he is not this bad.

The funny thing (to me anyways) is that Tejada is being hurt by exactly the same thing that helped him win the MVP award last year -- luck. More specifically, a fluky batting average. Tejada is on pace to play 162 games and hit 29 home runs and draw 48 walks. Wanna guess what his 162-game averages for homers and walks are for his career? 27 and 49, respectively. So, Tejada is hitting for about the same amount of power and patience as he has his whole career.

The problem he's having illustrates the biggest problem with batting average -- it's horrible as a predictive tool because it's the batting stat that fluctuates the most from year to year. Before 2002, Tejada was a career .257 hitter. Last year, he hit .308 (51 points above his career mark), won an MVP award and was labeled one of the best players in the game and somebody the A's absolutely had to lock up with a long term deal. The problem is that Tejada didn't really show any improvement in the parts of his game that actually have predictive value.

Before this season, Tejada was a career .268 hitter. The odds were that his luck would reverse at least a little bit and he'd hit closer to .268 than .308. Well, his luck has reversed completely and he's hitting .220 (48 points below his career mark). Odds are his luck won't be this bad all year, and he'll finish with an average around .250 and an OPS around .800.

Tejada is the obvious part, but the other key to Oakland's offensive struggles this year is Scott Hatteberg. Hatteberg has received a lot of attention since Moneyball by Michael Lewis came out. That book talks about how Oakland liked him so much because getting on base is the most important part of the game and he had always been good at getting on base. Since he was very cheap, he was extremely valuable to them.

All of this was true -- last year, when Hatteberg had a .374 OBP and provided a little bit of pop (.433 SLG) as well. This year, however, Hatteberg's batting average is only down nine points (.271 vs. .280), but his OBP is down 26 points to .348 and he's not hitting for any pop at all (.384 SLG).

A first baseman with an .807 OPS can be valuable if he's cheap and has a high OBP. A first baseman with a .732 OPS is going to hurt a team no matter what else is going on.

Interestingly, the A's do have a player with significant playing time who has an OPS more than 120 points higher than anybody on the team had last year. Eric Byrnes is batting .355/.418/.565 for a .983 OPS in 124 at-bats since Jermaine Dye has been out. Byrnes is not going to keep hitting .355, but he had an .860 OPS in 198 career AAA games and he can help Oakland. The A's can improve their offense by giving Long's spot in the order to Byrnes when Dye is ready to play again.

Finally, I just thought I'd give you an idea of how significant a loss of 52 runs is for a team. The A's are on pace to score 748 runs, which is 52 less than last year like I said. If they did that and allowed the 654 runs they allowed last year, their expected winning percentage would be .568, which would give them a record of 92-70 (10.5 games worse than last year's 103-59 record and five games worse than last year's expected record of 97-65). If you thnk 92 wins is good enough, talk to fans in Seattle and Boston because the Mariners and Red Sox both missed the playoffs with 93 wins last year.

Fortunately for the A's, their pitching and defense have made up for the lack of offense this season. It may not look like it because their .580 winning percentage is awfully close to that .568 mark I talked about, but Oakland's expected winning percentage so far this season is .643. The A's have allowed 172 runs this year, and no other team in the AL has allowed fewer than 200.

It's funny, just when you get used to the idea of Oakland as a beer-swilling, fun-loving softball team, they switch personalities and win with pitching and defense.