Another Devilishly exciting young Ray

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have, in my opinion, five exciting young position players on their roster. Four of those players have been with the team all year, and one has just been called up fairly recently. This recent call-up has been very good, but has gotten about zero publicity.

I'm talking, of course, about Antonio Perez. In 17 games in the majors, Perez is hitting .340/.411/.460 (.871) with three doubles, a home run, six walks and two steals in two attempts. He has struck out 15 times, but that would be more of a concern if he wasn't also drawing those walks.

Perez was signed by the Cincinnati Reds in 1998 as an undrafted, 18-year-old free agent out of the Dominican Republic. He played in the Reds organization for two years before going to Seattle as part of the package that sent Ken Griffey Jr. to Cincinnati. After three years with the Mariners, Perez and Lou Piniella were basically traded to Tampa Bay for Randy Winn.

Last year, Perez struggled mightily with San Antonio of the Class AA Texas League, hitting .258/.312/.333 (.645) in 72 games. He did tear the cover off the ball for six games in the Arizona Fall League, though.

He started this season with Orlando of the Class AA Southern League, where he hit .272/.423/.432 (.855) in 24 games. He moved up to Durham of the Class AAA International League, where he hit .284/.345/.537 (.892) in 34 games.

He's obviously not going to continue to hit .340 in the majors, but he's only 23 years old and he's shown both patience and power at various times in the minor leagues. He's in a pressure-free situation in Tampa Bay (where else could a kid come up and hit .340 in his first 17 games and barely even be mentioned anywhere) and he could blossom into a very nice player.

The other four exciting young Devil Rays are more well-known.

Aubrey Huff is hitting .302/.359/.524 (.893) with 32 doubles and 18 home runs. He has been pounding the ball since the middle of last season (he hit .329/.376/.546 (.922) with 16 homers after the All-Star break last year) and should have been Tampa Bay's All-Star representative this year.

Rocco Baldelli played at Class A, AA and AAA last year and was Baseball America's minor league Player of the Year. He surprisingly won a job in Tampa Bay out of spring training and took baseball by storm with an amazing April.

He's cooled down since then, but he's still hitting a respectable .305/.333/.447 (.780) at the tender age of 21. He has power (19 doubles, seven triples and seven homers) and speed (18 steals in 24 attempts), but no strike zone judgement (14 walks and 77 strikeouts). If he's going to make full use of his amazing talents, he will need to become a more disciplined hitter.

Toby Hall was supposed to take over as Tampa Bay's catcher of the future last year after winning the International League MVP award in 2001, but he got off to a slow start (he was hitting .187/.224/.273 after May 26). He went down and pounded the ball at Durham (.335/.382/.457 in 22 games) before getting called back up. He was able to finish the season with a .258/.293/.376 (.669) line, which is pretty good considering how badly he hit before getting sent down.

Unfortunately, Hall has been unable to build on his success in the second half of last year, as he's hitting .268/.313/.379 (.692). He doesn't draw many walks (just 17), but he also doesn't strike out (just 17 K's). He only has nine doubles and seven home runs, but he did have a very nice June (.319/.368/.478). At 27, he's still fairly young and catchers sometimes take longer to develop than player's at other positions.

Finally, Carl Crawford broke into the big leagues last year and has stolen 32 bases in 42 attempts in 150 games since then. Unfortunately, speed is the only thing he has right now. For his 150-game career, he's hitting .264/.299/.357 (.656) with just 28 walks and 112 strikeouts. When you think about it, it's amazing that somebody with a sub-.300 OBP was able to steal 32 bases in 150 games.

So, Crawford has a lot of work to do (especially regarding patience at the plate), but he's only 21 and has a lot of raw talent.

When a team is bad, as the Devil Rays are, it's nice to see them trying to develop good young players rather than overpaying for over-the-hill veterans (as they've done in the past). It's possible that not all five of these players will be able to help the Devil Rays in the future, but it's fun to watch their progress and cheer for the youngsters.

The Holy Trinity is back

After the 1999 season, one of the most exciting things in baseball was the Holy Trinity of AL shortstops.

Nomar Garciaparra had just won his first batting title, hitting .357 to go along with a .418 OBP and a .603 SLG for a 1.021 OPS. He hit 42 doubles and 27 homers, scored 103 runs and drove in 104. After winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 1997 and posting a .946 OPS with 35 homers and 122 RBI in 1998, Garciaparra made his second All-Star Team in 1999 and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for the third time in his three-year career.

Alex Rodriguez had just mashed 42 home runs for the second year in a row, hitting .285/.357/.586 (.943) with 111 runs scored and 110 RBI. After bursting onto the scene with a .358/.414/.631 (1.045) season with 36 homers and 123 RBI in 1996, Rodriguez slumped to .300/.350/.496 (.846) in 1997. He followed that up with a 40-40 (42 homers and 46 steals) season in which he hit .310/.360/.560 (.920) in 1998.

Derek Jeter had just hit .349/.438/.552 (.990) with 37 doubles, 24 home runs, 102 RBI and 134 runs scored. After helping the Yankees win their first World Series title in 18 years as the AL Rookie of the Year in 1996 (undeserving though that award may be), Jeter had now helped the Yankees win back-to-back World Series for the first time in 21 years.

They were the stars of baseball and they all played in the same All-Star game for the first time in 2000, but the Holy Trinity label slowly started to fade for several reasons.

One reason was the emergence of Miguel Tejada. Tejada had placed himself in the public consiousness by hitting 30 home runs with 115 RBI (.828 OPS) in 2000 and following that up with 31 home runs and 113 RBI (.802 OPS) in 2001. Then last year, Tejada hit .308/.354/.508 (.862) with 34 home runs and 131 RBI to win the AL MVP award (albeit undeservedly).

Another reason is that Garciaparra got hurt. After winning his second straight batting title in 2000 by hitting .372/.434/.599 (1.033), Garciaparra played just 21 games in 2001. Last year he returned for the whole season, but was not his old self, hitting "just" .310/.352/.528 (880).

A third reason is the decline of Jeter's offense. After that career season in 1999, Jeter slumped to .339/.416/.481 (.897) in 2000. That was still a very good season, but with his OPS below .900 and Garciaparra and Rodriguez both OPSing above 1.000, it was hard to put Jeter in their class. And he continued to slip, to .311/.377/.480 (.857) in 2001 and .297/.373/.421 (.794) last year.

And the final reason was the increased offense of Rodriguez. He hit .316/.420/.606 (1.026) with 34 doubles, 41 home runs and 132 RBI in 2000. He hit .318/.399/.622 (1.021) with 34 doubles, 52 home runs and 135 RBI in 2001. And he hit .300/.392/.623 (1.015) with 27 doubles, 57 home runs and 142 RBI last year.

So, coming into this season, there was no such thing as a Holy Trinity of AL shortstops. Rodriguez was clearly the best and then there was a second tier of Garciaparra, Tejada and Jeter (in that order, in my opinion).

Well, the Holy Trinity is back this year. Rodriguez is not blowing away the field, Garciaparra is getting closer to his pre-injury levels, Jeter is reversing his downward trend and Tejada is falling off the map.

Garciaparra is currently the best offensive shortstop in the AL, in my opinion. He is hitting .324/.361/.599 (.910) with 26 doubles, 12 triples, 14 home runs, 64 RBI and 13 steals in 16 attempts (81.3-percent success rate). According to Baseball Prospectus, his EqA is .316 and he has 78.1 EqR and 44.7 RARP.

Rodriguez is hitting .279/.371/.531 (.902) with 21 doubles, 22 home runs, 61 RBI and seven steals in nine attempts. He has a .305 EqA, 68.9 EqR and 36.6 RARP>

Jeter has not let his shoulder affect him recently, as he's hitting .319/.388/.468 (.855). In his last 16 games, he's hitting .492/.565/.644 (1.209). He has a .307 EqA, but only 44.7 EqR and 24.1 RARP because he missed so much time.

Tejada is hitting just .246/.302/.421 (.723). His EqA is just .255 and he has only 48.2 EqR and 13.1 RARP.

So go out and argue for your favorite of the Holy Trinity. For the first time in awhile, an argument can be made for all three.

Birthday buddies

As all of you probably know already, Jeff Bagwell hit two home runs yesterday to give him 400 for his career. As most of you probably know already, Frank Thomas also hit two home runs yesterday. As some of you probably know already, this is just another strange coincidence that links these two players together.

You see, Bagwell and Thomas were both born on May 27, 1968. As somebody on Baseball Primer pointed out, this is not the only thing they have in common, especially this year.

As I said, those home runs gave Bagwell 400 for his career. Eerily, Thomas' two longballs put him at 398 for his career. Bagwell now has 1,375 RBI for his career. Thomas has 1,337. Bagwell has 3,319 walks plus hits (2,071 hits and 1,248 walks) and Thomas has 3,339 walks plus hits (1,989 hits and 1,350 walks).

Bagwell and Thomas have both been MVPs (Thomas twice) and have both been to the All-Star game at least four times (Thomas five times). Both would have been Rookies of the Year in 1991, but Thomas played 60 games in 1990 and didn't qualify as a rookie in 1991. Both are first basemen (or have played the majority of their games at first base) despite throwing right-handed. Both have lost every playoff series they've played in (two for Thomas and four for Bagwell).

This year, Bagwell is hitting .277 with 20 home runs and 54 RBI and Thomas is hitting .273 with 22 home runs and 52 RBI.

Of course, there are differences as well.

Thomas has a career line of .312/.430/.567 (.998), has walked 330 more times than he's struck out, has now basestealing ability (32 steals in 53 career attempts) and is a poor defensive first baseman who now plays DH almost exclusively. Bagwell has a career line of .301/.412/.548 (.960), has struck out 109 more times than he's walked, has stolen 190 bases in 261 career attempts (72.8-percent success rate) and is generally regarded as a good defensive first baseman.

This year, Bagwell has a .369 OBP and a .492 SLG for an .861 OPS and Thomas has a .404 OBP and a .555 SLG for a .958 OPS. In four more games, Bagwell has seven fewer doubles, two fewer home runs and 15 fewer walks. However, Bagwell looks like he may have a chance to end his streak of playoff series losses, while Thomas probably will not.

Another difference is that Thomas was drafted by the White Sox (in the first round in 1989) while Bagwell was acquired by the Astros in one of the biggest swindles of all-time. And yes, I'm still bitter about it.

Look what we didn't know we had

Just about everybody knows that the best starting pitcher who may be available at the trading deadline is Sidney Ponson of the Baltimore Orioles. Ponson is only 26 years old and is 13-5 with a 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 92 strikeouts (6.26 K/9IP) and 37 walks (2.52 BB/9IP) in 132.1 innings. The big question is whether or not the Orioles will really trade him.

Ponson will be a free agent at the end of the season and the Orioles just offered him a contract extension. He would apparently like to stay with the Orioles, but he apparently did not like the contract offer. So, the Orioles will decide within the next 10 days whether they think they have a good enough shot at resigning him to not trade him (they could also decide to just take whatever draft picks they get as compensation when another team signs him).

So, Ponson is the best the Orioles have to offer, but they might not want to offer him. Fortunately, they have another starting pitcher who they are much more willing to trade. Even more fortunately for them, this pitcher has recently decided to pitch his best baseball of the season in order to improve his trade stock considerably.

Jason Johnson is a 29-year-old pitcher who isn't really anything special. His career ERA is around 5.00, his career WHIP is around 1.50 and his career winning percentage is worse than the Brewers' winning percentage this year.

Yesterday, however, Johnson allowed just one run on six hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 7.1 innings. And in his previous start, on July 13, Johnson allowed no runs on five hits and one walk with seven strikeouts in 7.2 innings.

A lot of teams think they are still in contention for a playoff spot. Most of those teams could use some help in their starting rotation. Some of those teams will like Johnson's 8-4 record and 3.65 ERA. They'll like the fact that he's allowed just one run in his last 15 innings even more.

If Johnson can make one more start of at least seven innings pitched and no more than two runs allowed, I guaranty there will be a team that is willing to ignore the fact that Johnson has a 1.43 WHIP and just 70 strikeouts (5.68 K/9IP) to go along with 41 walks (3.32 BB/9IP) in 111 innings.

The Orioles better thank their lucky stars that Johnson's best pitching has come at a time that should allow them to trade him for more than he's worth. Orioles fans should wait and see if the Baltimore brass actually gets it right before thanking their lucky stars.

C'mon Joe, don't make it this easy

I was going to take today off from blogging, but I was half-listening to ESPN while I'm at work and Jon Miller and Joe Morgan were talking about the St. Louis/Los Angeles game they're about to announce. Specifically, they were talking about the Dodgers' recent offensive acquisitions. Joe Morgan has been saying some stupid things recently, and criticizing him has become sort of a favorite activity of baseball bloggers.

Some people think it's unfair of us to pick through the things he says and point out everything that's stupid, but I think we're obligated to. Morgan is a Hall-of-Famer and he has a certain amount of respect in the baseball community that makes many people listen to (and agree with) his opinions. Almost every time he has a chat, writes a column or announces a baseball game, he says or writes something that should make you take everything he says with a grain of salt (or several grains of salt).

Today, he said the following (I'm paraphrasing because I don't have his exact quote), "Jeromy Burnitz gives them (the Dodgers) a power threat they have not had since Garyr Sheffield."

Sheffield left the Dodgers after the 2001 season, in which he hit 36 home runs and had a .583 SLG. I know Shawn Green is slumping, but that doesn't mean his stats from last year have been wiped out of the books.

For those of you whose memories are as bad as Mr. Morgan's, Green hit 42 home runs and had a .558 SLG last year. I know Los Angeles' offense has been bad and Burnitz will help them get better, but that doesn't mean you can just make things up to prove a point.

Update - The comment Joe made that I was pointing out came during the little preview of the game during Baseball Tonight. Between then and just before game time, somebody must have reminded him about Green because he amended his statement when they talked about LA's offense. This time, he said (paraphrasing again), "Burnitz gives the Dodgers something they haven't had since they got rid of Gary Sheffield -- a power threat to compliment Shawn Green."

New outfielders in Hollywood

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally decided it was time to try and improve their anemic offense over the All-Star break. They signed outfielder Rickey Henderson and traded for outfielder Jeromy Burnitz.

LA's entire offense has been bad this season, but the outfield has been a mess, especially with Brian Jordan out for the season and Dave Roberts out since the first of this month. Shawn Green has been slumping all season and the rest of the outfield fillers have not been pretty.

Mike Kinkade can only hit lefties, Chad Hermansen has four hits in 23 at-bats (.174), Wilkin Ruan has a .258 OBP in 31 at-bats, Daryle Ward has a .411 OPS in 107 at-bats and Jason Romano, Larry Barnes and Bubba Crosby combined for seven hits in 51 at-bats (.137) while they were with the Dodgers.

So the offense obviously had to be addressed, and the outfield looked like the best place to address.

For those of you who haven't been paying attention, Henderson (now with his ninth team) can still help a team. Over the last three years, he's only hit .229 with almost no power (.331 SLG) in 978 at-bats, but he does have a .367 OBP in that time.

With Jordan out, Paul Lo Duca is the only Dodger with an OBP higher than that. Kinkade is the only other Dodger with an OBP higher than .333.

Henderson might have hit his 296th career home run last night, but that's not how he's going to help the Dodgers. He's going to help the Dodgers by getting on base, which is exactly where they need help. Only the Detroit Tigers (.293) have a worse team OBP than the Dodgers (.305).

Burnitz will just help the Dodgers by being a good hitter. His stock took a big hit because nobody paid attention to him when he was with the Brewers and he struggled in his first season with the Mets. He bounced back this year though, and he's been good (if inconsistent) since 1997 aside from last year. Here are his Avg/OBP/SLG/OPS and games played each year since 1997.

1997 - .281/.382/.553/.935, 153 G
1998 - .263/.339/.499/.838, 161 G
1999 - .270/.402/.561/.961, 130 G
2000 - .232/.356/.456/.812, 161 G
2001 - .251/.347/.504/.851, 154 G
2002 - .215/.311/.365/.676, 154 G
2003 - .274/.344/.581/.925, 65 G

Like I said, he's been very inconsistent, but last year was the only time he was bad. If he can do with the Dodgers the same thing he has been doing with the Mets this year, he will quickly become LA's best hitter.

So, the Dodgers offense should improve significantly over the rest of the season (especially if Green can get on one of his hot streaks and Adrian Beltre can keep hitting like he has been the last five games), but it may not be enough for Los Angeles to make the playoffs.

The Dodgers lost 15 of their final 20 games before the All-Star break, and they now trail two teams (San Francisco and Arizona) in the NL West and two teams (Philadelphia and Arizona) in the wild card race. They certainly still can make the playoffs, but by waiting so long to improve their offense they have left themselves with an uphill battle.

Minor trades

There have been a few somewhat minor trades recently that I just want to touch on. The first is the exchange of Adam Bernero for Ben Petrick by the Tigers and Rockies.

This trade is interesting to me for two reasons, the first of which is more important. That reason is that this means Petrick may finally get a chance to play in the major leagues on a regular basis.

Petrick was once a highly touted catching prospect who people thought would hit a ton, but might need to move out from behind the plate. Now, he's a 26-year-old catcher/outfielder who has only received 549 at-bats over five seasons in the major leagues. In that time, Petrick has hit .264/.349/.464 (.813) with 31 doubles, 23 home runs, 70 walks and 147 strikeouts.

Those would be very good numbers for a catcher, but for a sometimes catcher, sometimes outfielder playing in Colorado, it's nothing special. However, I still think he could hit well enough to be a starting corner outfielder if given the chance.

Coming into this season, he had hit .311/.397/.563 (.960) in 859 at-bats at Class AAA. This year, he only hit .259/.333/.500 (.833) in 80 games in AAA, but he may just have been losing hope that he'd ever be a major league regular.

I think this is a wonderful trade for the Tigers, because they can afford to plus Petrick in and see if he can really do anything. They're even willing to use him behind the plate a bit, which is smart considering how little talent they have in the catching department in their organization.

The other reason that this trade is interesting is because it takes a pitcher out of the hunt for 20 losses. Bernero had 12 losses, but will be used as a reliever, if anything in Colorado. So, it's unlikely that he'll even lose 15 games, nevermind 20.

The longer the season goes on, the more unlikely it seems that anybody will get tagged with a 20th loss this year, which should make Brian Kingman very happy.

The next trade I want to talk about is the one in which the Texas Rangers sent outfielder Ryan Ludwick to the Cleveland Indians for outfielder Shane Spencer and pitcher Ricardo Rodriguez.

This looks like a nice trade for the Rangers to me. Everybody knows that Texas needs pitching and Rodriguez is a 25-year-old who showed great potential in the minors in 2000 (1.88 ERA, 12.14 K/9IP, 5.61 K/BB in 95.2 innings for Class A Great Falls) and 2001 (3.21 ERA, 8.98 K/9IP, 2.56 K/BB in 154.1 innings for Class A Vero Beach). Last year, he ptiched for four different teams and his stats were up-and-down and this year he's posted a 5.73 ERA in 81.2 innings for the Indians while struggling through injuries.

Rodriguez is not a perfect pitching prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but he's better than most of the guys the Rangers already have. They gave up Ludwick, who was hitting .154/.267/.192 (.459) in eight games with the Rangers this year and had hit .215/.288/.368 (.597) in 31 games in the majors.

Ludwick was hitting .303/.372/.558 (.930) in 81 games at Class AAA this year, and has a good defensive reputation in center field. He could certainly become a fine major leaguer, but the Rangers have plenty of good young position players and they need more promising young pitchers. Plus, Spencer is a nice player to have as a fourth outfielder.

This trade seems to me to make less sense for the Indians. True, they have a surplus of pitching prospects and Rodriguez probably isn't among the best of them, but they also have a surplus of outfielders. With Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp, Jody Gerut, Grady Sizemore, Alex Escobar, Ryan Church and Luke Scott already in the Cleveland organization as promising (or already good) outfielders, I'm not sure exactly where Ludwick fits in. And his acquisition certainly doesn't seem like a team using a position of surplus to help a position of scarcity.

The last minor trade I want to mention is San Francisco's acquisition of Matt Herges for Clay Hensley and a player to be named later. This is the kind of subtle move before the trading deadline that can really help a division-leading team maintain its lead.

Herges has a 2.74 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 40 strikeouts and 20 walks in 46 innings this year. For his career, the 33-year-old has a 3.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 259 strikeouts and 140 walks in 345 innings.

Herges certainly will not make up for the absence of Robb Nen, but his presence will take some of the pressure off Tim Worrell (2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 47.2 innings), Felix Rodriguez (3.48 ERA, 1.40 WHIP in 41.1 innings), Scott Eyre (3.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 38 innings) and Joe Nathan (3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 51.2 innings).

Basically, his presence strengthens an already strong bullpen and the Giants lost players who are at least a couple years away from contributing in the majors. We don't know who the PTBNL is, but we do know about Hensley.

The Giants drafted Hensley in the eighth round last year, and he then posted a 2.53 ERA, 9.26 K/9IP and 3.36 K/BB in 81.2 innings at short-season Salem-Kaizer. He started this season by posting a 3.18 ERA, 9.79 K/9IP and 3.7 K/BB in 68 innings for Class A Hagerstown. He is currently with Class A San Jose, where he has a 5.83 ERA, 7.67 K/9IP and 2.78 K/BB in 29.1 innings.

In his first two stops, Hensley had great success by showing nice ERA's, excellent strikeout rates and good walk rates. Now, however, his ERA is way up and his strikeouts are down in his brief time in San Jose. Maybe it's just a little bit of an adjustment period, but Hensley will be 24 at the end of August and he hasn't reached Class AA yet. He may end up being a nice pitcher in the majors, but it's not really a likelihood and it's far enough down the road that it's worth unloading him to help this year's team out.

Of course, the identity of the PTBNL could change things, but I doubt it. Unless he's a great prospect, it's unlikely that he'll make this look like a foolish trade for San Francisco.

Phillips goes down

Most people probably didn't even notice, but Brandon Phillips was sent down to the minor leagues on July 14. Phillips, of course, was one of the three prospects acquired by the Indians in the trade that sent Bartolo Colon to the Expos.

The demotion was well-deserved, as Phillips was hitting .210/.242/.307 (.549). In 300 at-bats, he had just 63 hits, 20 extra-base hits (15 doubles, a triple and four homers) and 12 walks while striking out 56 times. He was bad against lefties (.499 OPS) and righties (.565), at home (.574) and on the road (.582), during the day (.582) and at night (.533). He was bad in April (.614) and May (.620) and terrible in June (.484) and July (.507).

The only time Phillips has been a good hitter this year is early in the count if he's not behind. In 106 at-bats with the count 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1, Phillips was hitting .330 (35 hits) with a .538 SLG (eight doubles, a triple and all four of his homers). That says a lot about why Phillips has struggled -- he has no strike zone judgement. If a pitcher gives him something early that he can hit, he will frequently be successful. Pitchers don't need to give him anything he can hit usually, as he will help them out on pitches outside the zone and get himself behind in the count. And once he gets two strikes on him, he's doomed (his OPS with two strikes is below .300).

It's entirely possible that Phillips just needed more time at Class AAA. He's only 22 years old, and he started last year at Class AA and only played 65 games in AAA. What's more, he bounced all over the place last year, playing for four different teams (Class AA Harrisburg with MTL, Class AAA Ottawa with MTL, Class AAA Buffalo with Cleveland and the Cleveland Indians themselves) because of the trade. He did hit .300/.347/.476 (.823) with those four teams, but most of that success came with Harrisburg (.886 OPS in 60 games).

Hopefully for Indians fans, the Indians haven't stunted the progress of their best middle infield prospect. If he can go down to Buffalo for the rest of the season, improve his plate discipline and show that he's ready to start in the majors next year, it would be just what Cleveland needs.

You might be wondering why I'm so interested in Phillips.

Well, everybody knows that the Indians are in full-fledged rebuilding mode. And most people know that the Indians have a very good farm system stacked with prospects. What not everybody might know, is that Cleveland's good, young players are not distributed optimally.

The Indians have a ton of young players in Class AA, Class AAA and the major leagues who should be able to help now or very soon at first base (Ben Broussard, Travis Hafner and Eric Crozier), outfield (Milton Bradley, Coco Crisp, Jody Gerut, Alex Escobar, Ryan Church, Luke Scott and Grady Sizemore) and pitcher (C.C. Sabathia, Danys Baez, Billy Traber, Jason Davis, Ricardo Rodriguez, Jake Westbrook, David Riske, Alex Herrera, Brian Tallet, Cliff Lee, Nick Bierbrodt, Chad Durbin, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt White, Jason Stanford and Kazuhito Tadano).

The problem areas would appear to be catcher, second base, shortstop and third base. Corey Smith is probably their best third base prospect and he's nothing special, but the Indians thought they were set at catcher with Victor Martinez and at shortstop (or second base) with Phillips.

Martinez was hitting .328/.395/.474 (.869) in 73 games at Buffalo, but is hitting just .229/.275/.271 (.545) in 13 games since being called up and there are questions about his ability to be a catcher in the major leagues. If Phillips is unable to put everything together in the majors and Martinez proves that he is unable to either hit and/or play behind the plate in the majors, then the Indians rebuilding effort will take a serious hit.

They do have some other prospects in the middle infield (Jhonny Peralta, Maicer Izturis, Angel Santos and Joe Inglett) and at catcher (Josh Bard and Vic Valencia), but none of them are anywhere near as highly regarded as Phillips and Martinez. Hopefully the Indians won't end up like the Twins, with a glut of talent at some positions and nothing at others.

Although, if they are in that position, they'll probably handle it better than the Twins have (more on that sometime this weekend).

Harden makes The Show

As most of you probably already know, Rich Harden has been called up by the Oakland Athletics. The last two years, the A's have been able to make great second-half runs because Billy Beane has traded for good hitters (among other things) before the trading deadline. This year, they may make a great second-half run by adding another excellent starting pitcher before the trading deadline (although I still expect Beane to make a trade or two).

Harden started this season at Class AA Midland, where he pitched 13 perfect innings with 17 strikeouts before being promoted to Class AAA Sacramento. At Sacramento, he has posted a 3.15 ERA with 91 strikeouts (9.24 K/9IP) and 35 walks (2.6 K/BB) in 88.2 innings.

In 2001, Harden had a 3.39 ERA with 100 strikeouts (12.11 K/9IP) and 38 walks (2.63 K/BB) in 74.1 innings at Class A Vancouver. Last year, he started the season with a 2.93 ERA and 85 strikeouts (11.31 K/9IP) and 24 walks (3.54 K/BB) in 67.2 innings at Class A Visalia and then he had a 2.95 ERA with 102 strikeouts (10.77 K/9IP) and 52 walks (1.96 K/BB) in 85.1 innings at Class AA Midland.

Several things are apparent from looking at all those numbers. First, he strikes out a lot of people. His strikeout rates have dropped every time he's moved up, but he's still striking out more than a batter per inning. Second, he's moved up quickly. He hasn't needed 100 innings at any level before moving up to the next level. Third, he's improved dramatically (although it was a small sample) when repeating a level the following year.

According to John Sickels, Harden features a 92-95 mph fastball with movement that he has hit spots with. He also has a changeup (thrown with the same delivery and release point as the fastball), a splitter (sharp, gets a lot of ground balls) and a slider (inconsistent, but improved).

I've been looking forward to Harden getting called up since the beginning of the season and I can't wait to see what he does Monday against the Royals. Will he take the AL by storm as Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb have done in the NL? Or will he struggle like Jesse Foppert? The playoff picture in the AL may be affected by the answer to that question.

Of course, Harden isn't merely appearing in the major leagues. He's taking somebody's spot in Oakland.

Aaron Harang and John Halama have been Oakland's fifth starters this season, combining for 16 starts. They've posted a 5.06 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5.06 K/9IP and 1.63 K/BB in 78.1 innings.

Harden's promotion to the majors will allow Halama to stay in the bullpen, where he has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 22.1 innings, and will allow Harang to stay in Sacramento, where he can't damage Oakland's playoff hopes.

Actually, it may be better for the A's if Halama doesn't pitch much anymore either. His 4.12 ERA isn't bad, but his 38 strikeouts and 26 walks in 74.1 innings is terrible. Also, he's only allowed 34 earned runs, but he's allowed 50 runs total.

At any rate, even if Harden isn't immediately as good as everybody expects, he should be a good bit better than Harang and Halama. (How cool would it be if Harang and Halama were actually good and Oakland's rotation included Hudson, Harden, Harang and Halama? Everybody could call them the 4H club.)

So, keep an eye out for Monday's Oakland/Kansas City game. Not only is it a matchup of potential playoff teams, but it's also the first start in what could be a very successful career for Harden.

UUU to Florida

A lot has already been written about the trade that sent Ugueth Urtain Urbina to the Marlins for prospects Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Snare and Will Smith, and I agree with most of it.

Urbina has 26 saves this season, but he is not a great pitcher. He had a 4.19 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP before the trade. Last year with the Red Sox, Urbina had a 3.00 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 10.65 K/9IP. He's striking out almost as many this year (9.76 K/9IP), but has already walked 20 batters in 39.2 innings after walking just 20 batters in 60 innings last year.

The idea that Urbina is really good comes from the fact that he saved 40 games last year and 26 games this year, but that fact makes this trade even more confusing. The Marlins don't even want Urbina to be their closer. Braden Looper has 17 saves with a 2.28 ERA and 1.31 WHIP and he will continue to close out games for the Marlins.

I have no doubt that Urbina is a better pitcher than the last reliever on Florida's roster, but that difference is not worth what the Marlins gave up. First, let's take a look at what they gave up.

Adrian Gonzalez is a 21-year-old first baseman who was the first overall pick in 2000. He was hitting just .216/.286/.288 in 39 games for Class AAA Albuquerque before the trade (after hitting .307/.368/.409 in 36 games at Class AA Carolina), but he is generally regarded as an excellent hitting prospect. He hasn't shown much power this year, but he had 17 home runs and 30-plus doubles each of the last two years (17 homers and 37 doubles in 127 games for Class A Kane County in 2000 and 17 homers and 34 doubles in 138 games for Class AA Portland last year).

Ryan Snare is a 24-year-old pitcher who was picked by Cincinnati in the second round in 2000. In 2001, he had a 3.05 ERA with 118 strikeouts (9.23 K/9IP) and 37 walks (3.19 K/BB) in 115 innings for Class A Dayton. Last year, he had a 3.21 ERA with 137 strikeouts (8.62 K/9IP) and 40 walks (3.43 K/BB) in 143 innings at three levels. This year, he had a 3.67 ERA with 77 strikeouts (6.73 K/9IP) and 37 walks (2.08 K/BB) in 103 innings at Class AA Carolina. The drop in strikeouts is a big concern, especially since he had struck out 52 batters in 55 innings at Class AA Portland last year.

Will Smith is a 21-year-old outfielder who was picked by the Marlins in the sixth round in 2000. Last year, he hit .299/.336/.474 (.810) in 133 games at Class A Jupiter. This year, he was hitting .293/.346/.374 (.720) in 34 games for Class AA Carolina before the trade. He seems to have a good batting stroke, but he needs to draw more walks and needs to show that he can keep his power at higher levels.

I applaud Florida's decision to make a run for the playoffs and try to get their fan base excited (or try to create a fan base at all), but they just went about it the wrong way. The Marlins do have a chance to make the playoffs, but it's not a very good one. They are five games back in the wild card race and there are three teams ahead of them, two teams tied with them and two other teams close enough to finish ahead of them.

I'd say there chances of making the playoffs (with Urbina on the team) are smaller than the chances that all three of prospects they traded will contribute positively in the major leagues within the next three years. Since Urbina almost certainly won't be back in Florida next year, that's not a good tradeoff. If the Marlins were intent on mortgaging their future to make a run at the playoffs, they should have looked to improve their outfield.

The Marlins have four main outfielders, and none of them are really anything to write home about this season.

Miguel Cabrera is hitting .224/.294/.487 (.781) so far in his brief major-league career. His six doubles, four home runs and eight walks in 76 at-bats are a good sign, but he's hurting the offense right now with that sub-.300 OBP. He's very young (20 years old) and very talented, but that doesn't mean he's ready to help Florida make the playoffs this year.

Todd Hollandsworth is hitting .260/.311/.443 (.754). He's pretty much just being used as a pinch hitter right now, which is exactly how he should be used. He's not good enough to play every day.

Juan Encarnacion is hitting .283/.324/.471 (.794) with 15 steals in 20 attempts (75-percent success rate). His power (12 homers, five triples and 21 doubles) is decent for an outfielder in that park, but he's only drawn 22 walks and his OBP is bad. He has a nice success rate on steals, but getting extra bases isn't his problem. Getting on base is, so taking himself off base five times probably isn't a good idea.

Juan Pierre has been Florida's only good outfielder, hitting .298/.358/.361 (.719) with 44 steals in 54 attempts (81.5 percent). He gets on base at a decent rate, but has no power so his steals are helpful. I sometimes like to refigure a player's OPS by taking caught stealings out of OBP and adding steals to SLG for a rough estimate of how their basestealing affects their offense. For Pierre, his OBP would drop to .335 and his SLG would rise to .473, for an .808 OPS. I know OBP is more important than SLG, but a 23-point drop in OBP is probably more than made up for by a 112-point increase in SLG and Pierre is probably a lot more useful than most statisticall-inclined people (like myself) give him credit for.

Still, if your best offensive outfielder is Juan Pierre, you should be much more concerned about your outfield than your bullpen. And if you're going to trade away your future to try and make the playoffs, you probably shouldn't hurt your chances of making the playoffs by playing one of your remaining potential future stars if he's not ready.

Note - I'm having problems with my internet connection today, which is why I'm just now getting this first post up. I'll try to work through it and make as many posts as I can, but I might not get to as much as I wanted to today.

I'm back

I got back from vacation yesterday, but then I had to work until about 1 a.m. and I slept in this morning. So, I'm only now officially back to blogging. I would like to thank everybody who stopped by while I was away. I continued to have a good number of hits while I was on vacation, and I'm sorry that there wasn't anything new here for you to read. I'll try and make up for that today.

Today, I'm going to catch up and take a look at a bunch of things that have happened recently (trades, injuries, promotions, demotions). I will not necessarily be talking about them in the order that they happened. I have all day off and I plan on making several posts as there are many things I need to catch up on, so keep checking back today.

Vacation

I'm off to Lake George until Thursday, so there won't be any posts until then. Heck, I don't think I'll even be able to check up on anything, as I'm pretty sure there's no internet connection there. Luckily, I'm just missing a home run derby without the best home run hitters and an All-Star game that doesn't have all the stars.

If you've come here looking for stuff to read, be sure to check out the fine blogs listed to the right. I'll probably make a post when I get back on Thursday, depending on how late I get back. Enjoy the All-Star break.

Around the Majors

It's been awhile since I did this, so I'm going to take a look around the league and mention a couple things about each of the 15 games that were played last night. Actually, I'm not going to talk about the games themselves as much as the players and teams involved in them.

ATL/CHC - Vinny Castilla plays third base and now has 15 home runs, but he's a below average offensive player. The first problem is that he's batting just .261. The second problem is that he had just 17 walks. The third problem is that he's grounded into 14 double plays. So, his .459 SLG is negated by the fact that he's made 249 outs in 336 plate appearances.

In case you haven't noticed, Sammy Sosa is back. He's now hitting .307/.407/.570 (.977) and his two homers yesterday give him seven already in July and 17 for the season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish the season with at least 40 home runs.

FLA/MON - When you talk about the most underrated players in baseball, Derrek Lee has to be near the top of the list. He's only hitting .263, but his 54 walks give him a .372 OBP and his 18 homers and 18 doubles give him a .486 SLG for an .858 OPS. He's also stolen 14 bases in 18 attempts (77.8-percent success rate). Oh yeah, he gets killed by his home park. He's hitting just .216/.362/.345 (.707) at home, but he's hitting .301/.380/.601 (.981) on the road. Put him in a neutral home park and he'd be an All-Star. Put him in a favorable home park and he'd be an MVP candidate.

How great a season would Javier Vazuez be having if he could keep the ball in the park? He has a solid 1.19 WHIP, an excellent 9.98 K/9IP average and a very good 3.97 K/BB ratio. The reason he has a 3.95 ERA is that he's allowed 22 home runs (1.58 HR/9IP). After allowing two more homers yesterday, he's on pace to give up 39 home runs this season. His career high is 31 homers allowed, when he had a 6.06 ERA as a rookie. He's averaged 25.3 home runs allowed (1.02 HR/9IP) over the last three seasons.

BOS/DET - Jason Varitek is starting to get a little ridiculous. I expected him to have a good season now that he's finally healthy, but he hit his 16th home run yesterday. His career high is 20. He's now hitting .307/.372/.594 (.966) and he leads the Red Sox in SLG! That's right, the team that leads the AL in SLG by a considerable margin is led in SLG by a catcher who was not originally picked for the All-Star team.

Ramon Santiago is the most powerless hitter in the AL. His .059 Isolated Power is the lowest for anybody in the AL with at least 200 at-bats (former teammate Omar Infante had a .030 IsoP before being sent to Class AAA). After going 0-for-3 last night, Santiago's SLG is down to .283, but it's only that high because he's hitting .224. Of his 53 hits, only 12 have been for extra bases (11 doubles and one home run).

CWS/CLE - Ben Broussard raised his OPS 70 points yesterday by going 4-for-4 with two home runs and a double. He's now hitting .280/.348/.488 (.836) and has three home runs in his last two games after going 19 games without hitting one. Maybe the Indians have finally acquired an older prospect who will put everything together on a new team after trading away so many of them.

Carl Everett is now 6-for-31 (.194) with two doubles and two walks since being traded to the White Sox. Hitting .274/.356/.544 (.900) before the trade, he's now down to .267/.346/.517 (.863) after going 1-for-5 and leaving six men on base yesterday.

NYY/TOR - The top five hitters in the Yankees lineup each had two hits yesterday, going 10-for-24 with a walk, four doubles and a home run. That's a .417/.440/.708 (1.148) line for the top half of the lineup. Once everybody's fully healthy, the Yankees will have a very potent offensive attack.

Nice to see that some things don't change even if you throw a perfect game in the minors. The last time John Wasdin was in the majors, he had a 7.03 ERA in 24.1 innings for Colorado in 2001. Yesterday, he started for Toronto and was pulled before getting an out in the second after giving up eight hits and a walk in the game. He was charged with five runs to bring his career ERA up to 5.14 in 599 innings. I wonder how much longer it'll take him to get that 600th inning.

PHI/NYM - After being outscored 21-9 during their recent four-game losing streak, the Phillies have outscored their opponents 32-12 during their current four-game winning streak. Can this team just pick a consistent level of performance and stick with it for at least a month or so? Please?

Aaron Heilman earned run totals in order for his four big league starts: 1, 3, 5, 8. His innings pitched in order for his four big league starts: 6, 7, 4, 4.1. His ERA after each of his four big league starts: 1.50, 2.77, 4.77, 7.17. Not good. Not good at all.

PIT/HOU - If there's a less-talked about stud hitter in baseball right now than Morgan Ensberg (.316/.419/.627 for a 1.046 OPS), then I'm not paying enough attention. He already had five multi-hit games this month and seven games (out of 11) in which he's reached base safely at least twice.

How does a pitcher as dominant as Octavio Dotel (2.09 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10.45 K/9IP) allow a home run to Abraham Nunez? Nunez only had five career home runs in 1,133 at-bats before yesterday and had a career SLG of just .297.

CIN/MIL - Ken Griffey Jr. has one hit in each of his last four games and they're all home runs. He now has 12 homers this year and he's hitting .247/.365/.557 (.922). He's 20 home runs away from the 500 Club and I have no doubt he'll get there before Fred McGriff (12 away).

Brooks Kieschnick pitched a scoreless inning yesterday to lower his ERA to 4.35 and drew a walk for his first plate appearance of the season that wasn't an at-bat. He's now hitting .341/.356/.636 (.992). How is this guy not getting more notoriety? How many pitchers can say they've hit more homers (4) than they've allowed (3)?

KC/TEX - Is there a better basestealer in baseball right now than Carlos Beltran? He stole his 24th base of the season last night and has only been caught once (that's a 96-percent success rate). For his career, he's stolen 133 bases in 150 attempts (88.7-percent success rate). Basestealing isn't that important in today's baseball ... unless you can steal bases like that.

What does it say about the Rangers that they intentionally walked a player (Jarrod Patterson) who has one hit in 11 at-bats in the majors this season and just 12 career hits in the majors? What does it say that they also intentionally walked a catcher (Brent Mayne) who was hitting .251/.316/.355 (.671) at the start of the day?

SD/STL - Where would St. Louis be without Woody Williams? After allowing two runs on two hits and two walks with two strikeouts in eight innings, Williams is now 12-3 with a 3.01 ERA. He's also third in the NL in WHIP and innings pitched.

Is it time for Jesse Orosco to hang 'em up? He now has a 7.78 ERA and has allowed five home runs in just 24.1 innings (1.85 HR/9IP).

LA/COL - How did Colorado score more runs than Los Angeles when LA had six more hits (13-7) and no errors to Colorado's three? The Rockies hit .250/.400/.571 (.971) for the game and the Dodgers hit .310/.326/.357 (.683) for the game. Yet another shining example of how overrated batting average is (and no, Joe Morgan, it's not because batting average doesn't tell you when the players are getting their hits). Also, if the Dodgers can't show patience and power at Coors Field, the Dodgers can't show patience and power anywhere.

Todd Helton is now hitting .390/.477/.743 (1.220) at home and .294/.399/.479 (.878) on the road. He's getting back to the formula that made him great the last few years: be a good hitter on the road and bash the everloving crap out of the ball at home.

BAL/OAK - Nine innings, no runs, three hits, one walk, nine strikeouts. Maybe now people will realize that Tim Hudson is the best of the Big Three this year. Well, they probably won't, but he has a 2.71 ERA and Oakland is 16-4 when he takes the mound.

Of course, one of the three hits came from Melvin Mora, who is hitting .356 and still has an OPS above 1.025. This can't continue, but I recently read that Baltimore doesn't want to trade him for minor leaguers (aka prospects). Nice to know the Orioles are still stupid.

MIN/ANA - At what point does Brendan Donnelly become a pitcher who should be considered when writers fill out the middle part of their Cy Young ballot this season? The man's allowed two earned runs in 47 innings! Just to put things in perspective, though, Donnelly has allowed 25 hits, 12 walks and 54 strikeouts in 47 innings and Eric Gagne has allowed 23 hits, 11 walks and 76 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. Somehow Donnelly has a 0.38 ERA and Gagne has a 2.03 ERA.

Johan Santana allowed three runs on five hits with four strikeouts in six innings in his first start as an official member of the rotation. His ERA is now 3.00 and I expect it to still be around there at the end of the year.

TB/SEA - Ichiro Suzuki is on a 10-game hitting streak, but in nine of those games he has exactly two hits. He's 19-for-43 over the streak and has raised his average from .340 to .352. Does anybody really think Ichiro won't win another batting title this year?

Rocco Baldelli now has 73 strikeouts and just 13 walks. He's hitting .305 and it's only a matter of time (a short time) before he dips below .300. Even worse, I think his OBP will fnid itself south of the .300-mark by the end of the season as well.

SF/ARI - Barry Bonds has homered in four straight games and has seven homers in July. He's hitting .316/.494/.712 (1.206) and is now, without a doubt, the MVP in the NL.

Shea Hillenbrand is doing his best to make the Red Sox look stupid for trading him. In 77 at-bats with Arizona, he has eight doubles (one every 9.6 at-bats), six home runs (one every 12.8 at-bats), five walks (one every 15.4 at-bats) and is hitting .364. In 185 at-bats with Boston, he had 17 doubles (one every 10.9 at-bats), three home runs (one every 61.7 at-bats), seven walks (one every 26.4 at-bats) and hit .303. Fortunately for the Red Sox, Byung-Hyun Kim is now doing his best to make the Diamondbacks look stupid for trading him.

Evaluating Sidney Ponson

I’m always interested in figuring out whether a young pitcher is finally turning into a good pitcher or just having a fluky streak of success (or successful-looking performances). I’m especially interested in the case of Sidney Ponson, because he may be the best starting pitcher available at the trading deadline.

Ponson is a 26-year-old righthander for the Orioles who will be a free agent at the end of the season. After pitching a complete game with one run allowed yesterday, he is 12-5 with a 3.64 ERA.

From what I can tell, the Orioles will make him a contract offer in the near future. If they don’t think they will be able to work out a deal that is to their liking, then they will try to trade him at the deadline. However, it sounds like they are going to ask for a lot in return. The question is whether or not it’s worth giving a lot to get him.

The problem is two-fold. First, there’s the problem of whether or not he’s really worth giving up a lot to acquire at all. Second, there’s the problem of whether or not you’ll be able to sign him to a contract extension after trading for him. I don’t have much insight into the second part, but we can look at whether or not he’s worth acquiring.

As I said, Ponson allowed one run in a complete game yesterday. In fact, he’s allowed two runs or less in three of his last five starts and two of those have been complete games (the other was an eight inning performance). In the other two of his last five starts, he’s allowed five runs in five innings and five runs in six innings.

Before his last five starts, he was 9-3 with a 3.64 ERA. Now, as I said, he’s 12-5 with a 3.64 ERA. So, his recent performance tells us that he’s up-and-down, but that he has the potential to pitch very well.

Let’s take a look at the rest of Ponson’s stats for this season.

Ponson has a 1.27 WHIP, which isn’t great, but also doesn’t indicate that his nice ERA is a house of cards ready to be blown over at any moment. He has 89 strikeouts (6.36 K/9IP) and 35 walks (2.54 K/BB). The strikeout rate isn’t tremendous, but it’s acceptable especially when coupled with a fairly nice walk rate like his. Ponson has allowed nine home runs (0.64 HR/9IP), which is very nice, especially for him.

Aside from how well he’s pitched, there’s also the matter of how much he’s pitched. Ponson has thrown 126 innings, which is ninth in the AL and works out to exactly seven innings per start. His four complete games have him fourth in the AL. It’s nice to have a good pitcher, but it’s even better to have a good pitcher who can consistently pitch deep into ballgames.

How does this season stack up against the rest of Ponson’s career?

Well, Ponson’s best season came last year when he had a 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.14 K/9IP, 1.91 K/BB, 1.33 HR/9IP and 6.29 IP/GS (176 innings over 28 starts). As you can see, he’s improved this season in every single category. The most notable improvement is that he’s allowing home runs less than half as frequently.

It’s nice to see a young pitcher taking what was his best year and building on it even more, but Ponson was really not very good before last year.

He broke into the majors in 1998, when he pitched 135 innings moving between the rotation and the bullpen. From 1998-2001, his best ERA’s were 5.27, 4.71, 4.82 and 4.95 and his WHIP’s were 1.47, 1.46, 1.38 and 1.43. As I said, not very good.

However, he is young and he has gotten better two years in a row. His peripheral numbers do not indicate (at least to me) a pitcher who is getting by with smoke and mirrors. If his decrease in home runs allowed or his decrease in walks allowed or his increase in strikeouts are flukes, then that’s another matter. But based on those decreases and increases, his ERA does not appear to be a fluke.

One knock of Ponson I’ve heard is that he’s not always motivated, especially when it comes to staying in shape. He is a large man, listed at 6-1, 249 pounds, and if it’s true that he lets himself go at times, then that is a problem. However, I have no insight into that, so I can’t really comment on it.

Personally, I’d probably be willing to trade one good prospect and one medium-level prospect for him. Then, you try to work out a deal and if he refuses to sign for a reasonable amount, you offer him arbitration and take draft picks when somebody else signs him.

Now that we know a little more about Ponson, what does the rest of the trade market for starting pitchers look like?

Well, I’m sure the Orioles would also be willing to trade Jason Johnson, but he’s 29 years old and has a less impressive 4.13 ERA this year (and a much less impressive 1.51 WHIP).

The Yankees will probably try to unload Jeff Weaver, but I hope other teams realize that Weaver never has been and probably never will be anything special. If the Yankees are able to get anyone of consequence for Weaver, I will be very disappointed.

If the Blue Jays fall out of contention over the next two weeks, they will probably try to trade Cory Lidle and Kelvim Escobar. Lidle has a 5.96 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He’s had stretches in his career where he pitched brilliantly (like his 0.20 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 45.1 innings last August) and stretches where he is utterly unusable (like his 8.71 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in 20.2 innings last May). Escobar has a 3.39 ERA since moving into the rotation this season. His 1.36 WHIP is a little high, but his 8.09 K/9IP is very nice and 2.21 K/BB is acceptable. He’s always had a good arm and may finally be figuring out how to pitch. Maybe.

There was a lot of thought that the White Sox might give up and trade away Bartolo Colon before he becomes a free agent. However, with their recent trades (even though they haven’t worked), Chicago probably has to ride this season out and hope to get back in it.

Cleveland will be trying to trade Brian Anderson, who had a 4.15 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP to go along with a reasonable $1.5 million salary. Beware the 31-year-old’s awful 3.25 K/9IP (36 strikeouts in 99.2 innings), however. Also, he’s never really had a good season.

The Angels do not look like they’ll be able to defend their title and they have a couple of veteran starters they’d probably love to trade. Kevin Appier has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, but I’m sure there are teams that will say he still "knows how to pitch." Even if somebody wanted him, however, his salary ($11.5 million) will prevent them from trading for him. Aaron Sele has a 5.37 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP since returning from injury, but he’s been excellent in his last three outings (although they’ve been short). He’s gone five innings in each of those starts, allowing one run over the 15 innings. However, he’s had fewer strikeouts in that stretch (4) than walks (5).

The Rangers would love to get rid of Ismael Valdes and his 6.14 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His salary is a manageable $2.5 million, so it could be a worthwhile gamble if he comes cheap. His career ERA is still 3.89, after all.

The Marlins say they’re in for the long haul, but they could try to move Carl Pavano and Brad Penny. Pavano has a 4.41 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP and he’s only 27 years old. His biggest problem has been injuries, as he’s never pitched more than 136 inning in a season in the majors. Penny has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He’s been all over the place with his performances this season, so who knows what you’d be getting if you trade for him.

The Mets would probably be willing to trade Al Leiter (5.57 ERA, 1.77 WHIP), Tom Glavine (4.83 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) and Steve Trachsel (4.61 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), but I don’t know why many teams would be interested in any of them.

The Pirates are apparently tired of waiting for Kris Benson, now 28 years old, to become their ace and are willing to trade him. He had a 3.73 ERA at the end of May and the got smacked around in June (10.13 ERA in 18.2 innings). In each of his two July starts, he’s allowed one run in six innings and he now has a 4.63 ERA and 1.52 WHIP for the season. If teams feel he’s healthy, he could be a good player to take a chance on (as long as the Pirates aren’t asking for too much).

Pittsburgh may also be willing to trade Jeff D’Amico, who has a 3.87 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He’s had a lot of injury problems, but he’s generally pretty good when he’s healthy and he’s still just 27 years old.

The Dodgers are definitely trying to get rid of Andy Ashby (5.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 37 innings), but I don’t know why anybody would want him. Los Angeles is apparently also considering moving Odalis Perez (4.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and only 26 years old), but you’ll need to give them a hitter who they’re sure can solve their offensive woes to get him.

The Padres are trying to trade Kevin Jarvis, but it’s because they want to dump his $3 million salary, not because they think they can get something in return for his services. He’s had two nice starts in a row (four runs in 13.1 innings), but he has a 4.84 ERA and 1.53 WHIP for the season.

I’m sure the Rockies would love to get rid of Denny Neagle, but his salary ($9 million) and his performance (6.26 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) both make that almost impossible.

So, like I said, the pickings are pretty slim this year. And since there are so many teams looking to buy, the few pitchers there are will probably be priced too high to make them worthwhile. Ponson definitely looks like the best bet. After him, it’ll be trade and pray.

Thank you

The counter on my site just hit 5,000 and I would like to thank everybody who has stopped by, especially today. Based on the number of hits I've been getting, I expected to hit 5,000 sometime tomorrow. To get there before lunch today is very nice.

I'd especially like to thank Aaron Gleeman for giving me a nice plug this morning. Aaron is one of my favorite bloggers (as you can tell from the column of links to the right) and it makes me feel good to know that he is a fan of my blog as well.

Just as I didn't expect to reach 5,000 visitors quite this fast, I also didn't expect to set a new record for visitors in a month in July due to my two vacations. However, it now looks like I may do just that. I had 1,850 visitors last month, and I already have had 800 visitors this month before noon of the 10th day. If that keeps up, I may get 2,000 this month even with my vacation next week and I'm very happy about that.

As always, please feel free to email me for any reason whatsoever. I love hearing from my readers.

Strange month

I'm going to show you a table and I'd like you to try and spot the row that doesn't belong (it won't be very hard).

ERA	WHIP	K/9IP
2.75	1.03	8.25
2.43	1.01	9.30
2.18	1.15	7.36
3.35	1.17	6.69
3.48	1.16	8.82
2.51	1.07	7.74
6.43	1.57	5.91

As you can probably all tell, the row that doesn't belong is the last one. But what do these rows refer to? Well, some of you may already know, but I'll add another column for the rest of you.

Kevin Millwood	ERA	WHIP	K/9IP
June 2002	2.75	1.03	8.25
July 2002	2.43	1.01	9.30
Aug. 2002	2.18	1.15	7.36
Sept. 2002	3.35	1.17	6.69
Mar/Apr 2003	3.48	1.16	8.82
May 2003	2.51	1.07	7.74
June 2003	6.43	1.57	5.91

As you can now tell, those rows are Kevin Millwood's monthly breakdowns dating back to last June. The question is, what happened this June?

From the beginning of June 2002 to the end of May 2003 -- a full calendar year -- Millwood was one of the best pitchers in baseball. Over that time, he had a 2.77 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 200 strikeouts (8.04 K/9IP) and 69 walks (2.90 K/BB) in 224 innings.

He then followed that up with possibly the worst month of his big league career.

Normally, when a pitcher who has been as good as Millwood had been for a full year has a month as bad as Millwood had in June, the reason is an injury. However, that does not seem to be the case here as Millwood has come back strong in his two starts in July.

After throwing a complete game shutout yesterday, Millwood has allowed one run on four hits and six walks with 13 strikeouts in 16 innings in July. His ERA was a sparkling 2.94 at the end of May, but had shot up to 4.03 by the end of June. With these two starts, he's gotten it back down to 3.60.

So, if injury isn't the reason for his awful performance in June, then what is? Well, if you look on his player page, you'll see that there's a story by Jayson Stark saying that Millwood and the Phillies will not talk about his contract until after the season. That story is dated June 30.

It seems possible, if not downright likely, that Millwood felt that the Phillies weren't offering him as much as he's worth and that he let that affect his pitching in the month of June. And now that he doesn't have to think about it until the end of the season, he's free to pitch like an All-Star again.

You may scoff at the idea (and I certainly have no inside information to prove that's what happened), but let's play make believe for a bit. Imagine that you and your boss are trying to work out your salary for next year. You want a certain amount because you feel you deserve it and your boss wants to give you an amount that's significantly lower than that.

There would probably be three common reactions. First, don't let it affect your performance and just keep negotiating. Second, try to do even better to prove your worth and end up hurting your performance. Third, wonder what more you could possibly be doing and get discouraged.

If it wouldn't be unusual for normal people to react in any of those three ways, then I don't see why it would be unusual for a baseball player to react in any of those three ways.

The main problem is that Millwood picked a really bad time to have a bad month.

Millwood had a good record (17-8) and a decent ERA (4.08) in 1998. Then, he had an even better record (18-7) and an outstanding ERA (2.68) in 1999 and people were proclaiming him to be the next great Atlanta pitcher.

Unfortunately, he slumped badly (10-13, 4.66 ERA) in 2000 and struggled with injuries (4.31 ERA in 121 innings) in 2001.

Last year, he came back strong and went 18-8 with a 3.24 ERA, but he didn't get the recognition he deserved. He started off slowly in April and May before being one of the best pitchers in baseball from June through the end of the season.

This year, he started strong, but has now had a terrible month in the middle of the season that will hurt his final numbers. Most people won't realize that he had a full season's worth of games where he put up awesome numbers.

Instead, they'll see his 3.24 ERA from last year and his 3.60 ERA for this season and say things like, "Yeah, Millwood's good, but I don't know if I'd trust him as my ace."

Well, anybody who doesn't trust Millwood to be an ace can send him my way, because he is one of the best pitchers in the game of baseball right now.

Royally underappreciated

I don’t think the Kansas City Royals can be considered contenders to win the AL Central anymore. I think they now have to be considered the favorites. At 48-39, they currently lead the division by 4.5 games over the Minnesota Twins and by 5.5 games over the Chicago White Sox.

I’m not saying it’s more likely that Kansas City will win the division than that they won’t win it, but I do think it is now more likely that Kansas City will win the division than that either of the other two teams will win it.

I’m not doing this to write about the Royals specifically, however. I really want to talk about a specific Royal who I feel is being overlooked. With the Royals in first place, we might ask which player deserves the most credit for them being there.

Well, Kansas City has two "All-Stars" (I’m more disappointed in the All-Star game this year than I have ever been, hence the quotation marks), so maybe it’s one of them. Mike MacDougal does have a 2.72 ERA, but he also has a 1.36 WHIP and has only converted 24 of his 29 save opportunities (82.8 percent). Mike Sweeney is hitting .321/.440/.540 (.979), which is very nice, but he’s only played in 62 games and his 266 plate appearances do not qualify him for the batting title (he would need 270).

There are several players you could argue for as the Most Valuable Royal, but there is one candidate that almost nobody is talking about, so I’m going to take this opportunity to talk about him here.

Darrell May is only 3-4, but he has a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 107 innings. He’s made 16 starts and has not allowed more than four runs in any of them.

Big deal, you might say, I’m sure there are plenty of good pitchers who haven’t given up more than four runs in a game this year. Well, there aren’t. I didn’t go through every single pitcher, but I did look at 26 pitchers who would probably be considered in discussions of the best pitchers of the season. Here’s what I found, in no particular order.

Pedro Martinez is 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA. He allowed 10 runs in 4.1 innings on April 12 and five runs in five innings on May 9.

Mike Mussina is 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA. He gave up six runs in 5.1 innings on June 4 and five runs in 2.2 innings on July 1.

Esteban Loaiza is 11-4 with a 2.28 ERA, but he’s given up more than four runs twice. He allowed five runs in 3.2 innings on May 2 and five runs in seven innings on June 29.

Roy Halladay is 12-2 with a 3.48 ERA, but he’s allowed at least five runs five times. He gave up five runs in 6.2 innings on April 15, five runs in 6.1 innings on April 20, five runs in seven innings on May 6, seven runs in 6.2 innings on June 1 and five runs in eight innings on June 27.

Barry Zito is 8-6 with a 3.49 ERA. He allowed seven runs in five innings on April 13, six runs in six innings on June 28 and seven runs in 5.1 innings yesterday.

Mark Mulder is 11-6 with a 3.10 ERA, but he gave up eight runs in 3.2 innings on June 3.

Tim Hudson is 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA, but he’s been tagged for at least five runs four times. He allowed six runs in six innings on April 11, nine runs in 3.2 innings on May 30, five runs in six innings on June 4 and six runs in seven innings on June 21.

Roger Clemens is 8-6 with a 3.75 ERA and he leads the AL with 122 strikeouts. He allowed five runs in five innings on May 16, eight runs in 5.2 innings on May 26, six runs in six innings on June 1 and eight runs in 5.1 innings on July 5.

David Wells is 10-3 with a 3.85 ERA and just six walks. He allowed five runs in five innings on April 16, five runs in 7.2 innings on May 14, five runs in five innings on May 24, five runs in six innings on June 12 and eight runs in 5.2 innings on July 4.

Kevin Brown is 10-4 with a 2.30 ERA. He allowed five runs in five innings on April 18 and five runs in five innings on July 3.

Jason Schmidt is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA, but he allowed five runs in 6.2 innings on May 16.

Mark Prior is 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA. He gave up five runs in six innings on April 14 and seven runs in 6.2 innings on May 23.

Kerry Wood is 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA. He allowed five runs in 5.1 innings on May 21, five runs in six innings on June 1, five runs in six innings on June 13 and seven runs in three innings on July 4.

Randy Wolf is 9-4 with a 3.40 ERA. He gave up five runs in 5.1 innings on April 18, six runs in 6.2 innings on April 29 and six runs in five innings on July 6.

Dontrelle Willis is 8-1 with a 1.98 ERA, but he allowed five runs in three innings on May 20 (his third start in the majors).

Gil Meche is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA. He allowed six runs in five innings on April 5, six runs in six innings on June 26 and five runs in four innings on July 6.

Jamie Moyer is 11-5 with a 2.99 ERA. He gave up eight runs in 4.1 innings on April 2 and five runs in six inning on April 30.

C.C. Sabathia is 8-3 with a 3.27 ERA, but he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings on June 5 (in fairness, this game was in Colorado).

Hideo Nomo is 9-8 with a 2.71 ERA, but he allowed six runs in six innings on July 1.

Woody Williams is 11-3 with a 3.06 ERA. He gave up five runs in 6.2 innings on June 10, five runs in 5.1 innings on June 15, seven runs in six innings on June 26 and five runs in seven innings on July 1.

Kaz Ishii is 7-3 with a 2.74 ERA. He allowed five runs in 3.2 innings on April 3 and five runs in five innings on May 27.

Miguel Batista is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA. He gave up five runs in five innings on May 16 and five runs in six innings on May 21.

Carlos Zambrano is 6-7 with a 3.19 ERA. He allowed six runs in 7.1 innings on May 9, five runs in six innings on June 6 and five runs in six innings on July 3.

Mark Redman is 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA. He gave up five runs in 3.2 innings on June 4 and five runs in six innings on June 25.

Joel Pineiro is 10-5 with a 3.32 ERA, but he allowed six runs in five innings on May 24.

Finally, Brandon Webb is 6-2 with a 2.18 ERA. He has made 13 straight quality starts since joining Arizona’s rotation and his worst start was on June 13, when he allowed three runs in six innings.

So, there you have it. Out of the 26 pitchers I looked at, only one of them has managed to avoid allowing more than four runs like May has.

Of course, I’m not saying that May is a Cy Young candidate or even that he belongs in this group of pitchers. And while he hasn’t allowed more than five runs in a game, he has failed to go five innings in two starts.

Still, he’s been very consistent for the Royals this year and he has generally given the offense a chance to win the game. Considering how difficult his career has been, he should be getting more recognition.

May was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 46th round in 1992. He was then excellent in the minor leagues for four seasons before reaching Atlanta for four innings in 1995.

In 1996, he was waived by the Braves and claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He pitched most of the year at Class AAA Calgary, where he posted a 4.10 ERA with 75 strikeouts (5.13 K/9IP) and 36 walks (2.08 K/BB) in 131.2 innings. He then put up a 9.35 ERA in 8.2 innings with the Pirates before being released and claimed by the Anaheim Angels, where he pitched 2.2 innings and allowed three runs.

In 1997, May posted a 3.26 ERA with 62 strikeouts (6.98 K/9IP) and 31 walks (2.0 K/BB) in 80 innings at Class AAA Vancouver and a 5.23 ERA with 42 strikeouts (7.32 K/9IP) and 25 walks (1.68 K/BB) in 51.2 innings with the Angels.

After 1997, May went to pitch in Japan for four years before returning last season to sign with the Royals. He pitched 16.1 innings in the minor leagues, allowing two runs with one walk and 14 strikeouts. In the majors, he had a 5.35 ERA with 95 strikeouts (6.51 K/9IP) and 50 walks (1.9 K/BB) in 131.1 innings.

Now, he’s succeeding in the majors for the first time in his career. And nobody’s talking about it. And that’s a shame.

Apology

I know I was in the middle of reviewing 21 teams that were still close enough to a playoff spot to be considered in contention when I left for my trip, but I regret to say I'm not going to finish the rest of the teams. They were taking quite a bit longer than I expected and I don't have a ton of time this week before I go on another vacation next week.

I will continue making posts the rest of this week, but they will not be midseason reviews of contending teams. I'd like to thank everybody who expressed an interest in those reviews and I'm sorry I won't be able to do the rest of them.

I hate New York

Well, I'm back from my trip. I had a good time overall, but it obviously did not go nearly as well as I had hoped it would.

I arrived on Saturday around 12:30 and we played stickball for more than two hours shortly thereafter. My team lost and I didn't do a thing at the plate, but I pitched quite well and had a good time (we were listening to the Red Sox pound the Yankees for the second day in a row while we played, so that made it even more fun). Then we went back for a cookout, which was very good, and then we watched baseball and movies the rest of the night.

Sunday was the first big day. My second trip to Yankee Stadium and my first trip there to see the Red Sox play. I was in very good spirits after Bill Mueller homered in the first inning, but things quickly went downhill from there and it was not a great day at the park. Still, it was nice to be there watching baseball and I did not dwell on the loss too much. I get upset after every loss, but the ones where I don't see a way the Red Sox could have won are easier to get over. Every team's going to lose game's and I'm fine with that, as long as I don't feel like the Red Sox blew a game they should have won.

The rest of the night was pretty similar to Saturday. Dinner at a very good seafood restaurant, more baseball and another movie.

Then came yesterday, the really big day. Pedro Martinez against Mike Mussina. Boston against New York. Yankee Stadium. Final game of the series. The difference between trailing the Yankees by two games and trailing the Yankees by four games. A chance to even the season series against the Yankees and win a series against the Yankees for the first time this year.

Needless to say, I was very excited. I bought a program and kept score so that I could look back on the game if it turned out to be a great one. However, I was so upset when the Red Sox lost that I just threw it out. I pretty much remember what happened though.

Things started off well as the Red Sox scored a run in the first inning on a Todd Walker single and a Manny Ramirez double.

I've since heard (or read) all sorts of people saying that Boston's run in the first was a fluke because Manny's double should have been caught. That's a load of BS. I was sitting a few feet in foul territory just behind the right field foul pole, so I was maybe fifty feet from where Manny's hit landed. He smoked that ball and Curtis Pride was nowhere near catching it. It would have been a helluva catch for any outfielder to make. Mussina pitched an outstanding game, but don't ruin it by prattling on about how he should have had a shutout. He shouldn't have. Manny smoked a pitch to deep right field for a double. End of story.

In the bottom of the first, Pedro should have had an easier inning than he did, but Derek Jeter reached base by fouling a pitch off his hand on a check swing. The stands predictably errupted in outrage as Jeter was tended to by the trainer's, but Pedro did not hit Jeter.

Yes, a ball thrown by Pedro hit Jeter on the hand without hitting anything else, but Pedro did not hit Jeter. Jeter swung at a pitch and was able to hold up, and said pitch hit his hand while his hand (and the rest of the bat) was over the plate. In fact, had Jeter not been able to check his swing, he would not have gotten first base.

In fact, people in the stands didn't know it at the time, but that exact thing happened to Alfonso Soriano leading off the inning. He swung at a pitch and fouled it off, but in addition to hitting his bat it also hit his hand. I had to explain this to about a dozen people yesterday, but it didn't matter that the ball hit Soriano's bat.

What matters is that he swung. If you swing at a pitch, it does not matter if that pitch hits you. It's a strike. I remember at least a couple instances where batters have swung at (and obviously missed entirely) pitches that hit them in the stomach. The did not get to take first base. They did get another strike against them.

Of course, the New York fans were even more incensed at Pedro when Soriano came out of the game after that inning. Let me ask you this though. If Soriano thought the pitch was good enough to swing at (and make contact with), how could Pedro possible be blamed for throwing at him?

The Red Sox went in order in the second inning, but by the third, the Yankees lineup looked like this:

C - John Flaherty
1B - Jason Giambi
2B - Robin Ventura
3B - Todd Zeile
SS - Enrique Wilson
LF - Karim Garcia
CF - Hideki Matsui
RF - Curtis Pride
DH - Ruben Sierra

Not exactly the most intimidating lineup of all-time. So, I was feeling much better about Boston's chances and didn't even worry that the Red Sox went down in order again in the third. In fact, there were some very nice New York fans sitting around me, and I was having a good time.

The were two older men sitting behind my friend and I and the apparently hadn't paid attention when the lineups were announced. When Flaherty came to bat for the first time, they wondered to each other why he was playing and whether or not Jorge Posada was playing, maybe at DH, and I informed them that he was not. After that, anytime they had a question about something, they asked me. Even said they were depending on me to give them the right answers because I seemed like I knew my stuff. Obviously not important in the grand scheme of things, but it made me feel good.

Sitting next to me was a family of four Yankees fans. A young girl was directly next to me and her mother was on the other side of her. I was not wearing a Red Sox hat or shirt, but I was clapping everytime something good happened for the Red Sox. Several times, the young girl clapped along with me despite the Yankees hat perched atop her head.

In the third inning, I was clapping after a Yankees out and the girl again clapped with me when her mother asked her why she was clapping and informed her that the Yankees had made an out. I leaned over to the girl and said, "I'm a Red Sox fan. You don't want to clap when I do." Her mother laughed and informed her son and husband what had been happening. It was a nice moment, and after that the girl correctly only clapped when the Yankees did well.

After the fourth inning (in which the Red Sox went down in order again), it was very apparent that Boston was not going to score many runs. Mussina had set down 10 Red Sox hitters in a row and would set down 11 more in a row before Mueller walked with two outs in the eighth. I'll get back to what happened next shortly.

As the game went on, I got more and more tense. The Stadium was absolutely electric. It was obviously an important game, especially as far as July games go, and the pitching matchup was simply superb. One thing you miss when attending a game in person is how much the pitches actually move. Sitting approximately 330 feet away from home plate, however, we could tell that Pedro and Mussina were both particularly nasty yesterday.

When the Yankees scored to tie the game in the bottom of the seventh, the entire park erupted in joy. That run, and that sound, absolutely deflated me. I don't know that I smiled the rest of the game and I got even more nervous than I already had been.

Then came the eighth inning. With Mussina's streak of 21 straight batters retired finally over, Jason Varitek came to the plate with two outs. After getting two strikes rather quickly, he hit a long, high fly ball down the right field line. It was clear right away that it was hit hard enough and I began waving my arm, hoping that it would land fair. When the ball passed directly over my head and landed in the deck above me, I knew that it had not as I was sitting in foul territory. Instead of stunning the Yankees with a two-run homer, Varitek struck out and for some reason it seemed as though the Red Sox only had three outs left even though the game was tied.

I think I'll stop here, because I don't particularly want to talk about that ninth inning. I will say, however, that yesterday's games was one of the best I've ever been to, if not the best. I know the Red Sox lost, but the pitching duel was so good and the atmosphere was even better. By the way, how are those two pitchers not All-Stars? Here are there stats after yesterday's game.

Pedro - 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.75 K/9IP in 96 IP
Mussina - 3.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.81 K/9IP in 117.1 IP

I was going to vent about New York fans a little more, but there's no point. There are some very, very nice and intelligent Yankees fans (like my best friend, Rob, and Alex Belth of Bronx Banter), but a ton of Yankees fans are idiots and jerks. Oh well, I'm sure the same thing can be said about Red Sox fans.