Party like it's 1999

Just before 8:30 p.m. on the West Coast Monday night, the Boston Red Sox became the first franchise to twice come back from losing the first two games in the division series to win the next three and advance to the League Championship Series. At the same time, the Oakland Athletics became the first franchise to twice fall apart after winning the first two games in the division series and lose the next three to head into the offseason.

I don't know what it was like to be an A's fan in 2001, but I do know what it was like to be a Red Sox fan in 1999. How did this series compare to that series? I'm glad you asked.

Both series began just the way you would like them to -- with each team's ace toeing the rubber. Pedro Martinez against Indians ace Bartolo Colon in 1999 and Martinez against A's ace Tim Hudson this year.

The games were similar in many ways, but different in many others. In 1999, Pedro breezed through the first four innings with three hits and no runs allowed. Then, a bad back forced him out of the game before he had even pitched long enough to qualify for the win.

This year, Pedro flew through the first two innings before the A's touched him up for three runs in the third.

Back in 1999, Nomar Garciaparra had staked Pedro to a 2-0 lead before the fragile ace had to leave. Garciaparra, playing in his first game in eight days thanks to a bruised tendon in his right wrist that everybody in New England would know a lot more about all too soon, hit a solo homer in the second and doubled and scored on Mike Stanley's single in the fourth.

This year, Todd Walker gave the Red Sox an early 1-0 lead on a solo homer off Hudson in the first before Pedro let the A's jump ahead. Pedro would then settle down and pitch four more scoreless innings, by which point the Red Sox offense had regained his lead for him.

Jason Varitek's solo homer in the fifth brought Boston within a run, and Walker gave the Red Sox a 4-3 lead with his second homer of the game in the seventh inning, this time off left-handed reliever Ricardo Rincon.

So, both times the Red Sox had the lead when Pedro left the ball game. In 1999, the Red Sox turned to Derek Lowe to protect that lead, and he was brilling while allowing just one hit in four innings. Unfortunately, he also lost.

The only hit Lowe allowed was a monster home run to Jim Thome in the sixth that followed a John Valentin error that allowed Manny Ramirez to reach base safely. Ramirez would reach base without getting a hit again leading off the ninth inning when Lowe plunked him in the back. Travis Fryman later singled off Rich Garces with the bases loaded and one out to tag Lowe with the loss.

This year, the Red Sox turned to several people to protect Pedro's lead. First, Mike Timlin came in to pitch a scoreless eighth inning. The Red Sox then turned things over to embattled closer Byung-Hyun Kim, who calmly got the first out in the ninth before walking a batter and hitting another batter to put the winning run on with one out. Kim recovered to strike out Mark Ellis, but that was the end of his night.

Left-handed reliever Alan Embree came in to face left-handed hitter Erubiel Durazo with the game on the line. Durazo won the battle with a single to tie the game and force extra innings.

Just as the 1999 Red Sox were unable to get anything going on offense against Colon and Paul Shuey after the Indians tied the game, the 2003 Red Sox were unable to get anything going on offense against Chad Bradford, Keith Foulke or Rich Harden after the A's tied the game.

Scott Williamson pitched a scoreless 10th for this year's Red Sox before Lowe was called on to once again try and help the Red Sox win game one of an ALDS.

Again Lowe allowed just one hit, but it was just as big (in importance if not in distance) as the one he allowed four years ago. After a walk, two groundouts and then two more walks, Lowe was facing Ramon Hernandez with the bases loaded and two outs.

In the surprise of all surprises, Hernandez dropped down a perfect bunt and the winning run scored while the Red Sox tried to figure out what had just happened. For the second straight playoff appearance, Lowe was Boston's game one loser.

After losing the first game of each series in heartbreaking fashion after wasting a start by Pedro, the Red Sox were unable to even put up a fight in game two of either series.

In 1999, Charles Nagy toyed with the Red Sox for seven innings, allowing just one run. Meanwhile, a botched double play by Red Sox second baseman Jose Offerman opened the floodgates for a six-run third inning as the Indians routed the Red Sox 11-1.

This year, Barry Zito and his wonderful curveball toyed with the Red Sox for seven innings, allowing just one run while striking out nine. Meanwhile, an error by Red Sox second baseman Todd Walker helped the A's score five runs in the second inning of a 5-1 victory. In fairness to Walker, the Red Sox had already allowed three runs when he made his error, while the 1999 Red Sox had a 1-0 lead when Offerman erred.

So, twice I went into the postseason full of hope, and twice I watched disappointedly as the Red Sox dropped their first two games before flying home to try and bounce back in Fenway Park. The strangest part? I was unable to watch and see whether or not my beloved Red Sox would win either third game.

In 1999, I had a trip to Philadelphia the day of the third game that I couldn't miss. This year, I had a wedding to go and the reception started at 6 p.m. with the game starting at 7:30 p.m.

In 1999, I found a pay phone in Philly and called my mom in Springfield, Mass. to ask how the Red Sox were doing as three other Red Sox fans huddled around me and the phone. We learned that the Red Sox were losing 1-0, but that Cleveland starting pitcher Dave Burba had left after four innings of shutout ball with a strained forearm.

We would later learn that the Red Sox won the game 9-3 thanks to home runs from John Valentin and Brian Daubach and a quality start from Ramon Martinez.

Saturday, one of the groomsmen at the wedding told me at one point that he had heard that the Red Sox were leading 1-0 in the fourth or fifth inning. That was all I heard of the game until one of my friends, Todd, called me not long before midnight to tell me that was one of the best endings to a game he had ever seen. I told him I hadn't been able to watch it and he told me that Doug Mirabelli hit a two-run walkoff home run in the 11th inning to win the game for the Red Sox.

I would later learn that it was Trot Nixon who hit the home run, with Mirabelli scoring ahead of him, and that the A's had cost themselves an almost certain shot at sweeping the series thanks to some bad defense and some horrendous baserunning (some people think the A's should have won that game even with their baserunning and defensive mistakes, but that's simply not the case. They were not screwed out of a win by the umpires).

I would also later learn that Lowe had allowed just one run in 8.1 innings after having made the gradual and very strange transformation from setup man (1999) to elite closer (2000) to inept closer (2001) to Cy Young caliber starter (2002) to inconsistent starter (2003).

So, the Red Sox had battled off an elimination game in each series and, though they were still certainly the underdogs with a 2-1 deficit, they had life. And I, after a one-game hiatus each year, was able to watch those new lives.

In the game fours, Boston's opponents both brought their ace game one starters back on three days rest while the Red Sox saved Pedro both times out of necessity. In 1999 he still had the bad back and this year he had thrown 130 pitches in game one.

So it was up to Kent Mercker to beat Colon and John Burkett to beat Hudson. Except that's not really what happened either year.

Neither Colon nor Mercker were able to escape the second inning in 1999, but the Red Sox got the better of the exchange, leading 7-2 after two. They continued to bash the Indians pitching staff into submission, winning 23-7 to even the series at two games apiece with one of the most fun games I have ever had the pleasure of watching.

This year, Hudson pitched a scoreless first inning, but had to leave before the second inning due to injury. Burkett worked his way out of a bases loaded and nobody out jam in the second with just one run scoring, and the Red Sox were able to take a 2-1 lead thanks to Johnny Damon's two-run homer off Steve Sparks.

Burkett worked his way in and out of trouble for a few more innings and the Red Sox still led 2-1 going into the top of the sixth. That's when Grady Little tried to get greedy. He let Burkett pitch to the first batter, who singled. He let Burkett pitch to the next batter, who Burkett got out on a hard liner to third base. He let Burkett pitch to the third batter, who tripled to tie the game at 2-2. Finally, he let Burkett pitch to Jermaine Dye, who homered to give Oakland a 4-2 lead.

Burkett's night over 1-4 batters too late, Tim Wakefield and Williamson combined to finish the game without any more Oakland runs scoring. The question was whether or not even that would be good enough to let the Boston offense rally.

Todd Walker cut the deficit in half immediately, hitting his third homer of the series and his second off Ricardo Rincon in the bottom of the sixth, but the Red Sox went quietly in the seventh.

Then, the A's brought in Foulke yet again to try and get a long save starting in the eighth. Damon grounded out and Nomar doubled off the wall. Walker flied out to center and Ramirez singled into left field, but too hard to score Nomar with the tying run.

That brought up David Ortiz, who had been hitless in the series thus far. Cookie Monster drove a 3-2 pitch to deep right field, where Dye might have been able to catch it and certainly should have been able to field it cleanly enough to prevent Ramirez from scoring. He did neither, and the Red Sox had a 5-4 lead that turned into a 5-4 win when Williamson slammed the door shut.

So, twice the Red Sox lost the first two games of their division series, twice they came back to Fenway Park to even the series at two games apiece, and twice they headed back out onto the road one win away from a date with the New York Yankees in the ALCS. There were two differences between 1999 and 2003 going into game five.

First, this year the Red Sox knew they had Pedro on the hill for the fifth and deciding game whereas the following quotes were being made about Pedro in 1999:

Team doctor Arthur Pappas said it was "possible but not probable" that Martinez would be available tonight.

Pitching coach Joe Kerrigan said it was "unrealistic."

"I just don't think it's wise to start him," manager Jimy Williams said. "I don't know if he can pitch at all, to be very honest."

Second, in 1999, I was able to watch the fifth game with my suitemates, two of whom were (and still are) Red Sox fans and one of whom was (and still is) an Indians fan. This year, I had to work on the night the all-important game was being played.

The 1999 game was a seesaw affair from the beginning, with the Sox taking a 2-0 lead in the top of the first and falling behind 3-2 in the bottom of the inning. The Indians extended their lead to 5-2 in the second, but the Red Sox took a 7-5 lead in the third thanks to a Troy O'Leary grand slam following an intentional walk to Nomar. However, the Indians jumped back ahead 8-7 in the bottom of the third before the Red Sox tied it at eight runs apiece in the top of the fourth.

And that's when the game ended.

Obviously it didn't really end there, but that's when Pedro came in and you just had a feeling (or at least my suitemates -- even the Indians fan -- and I did) that the Indians were done.

Pedro didn't allow the Indians to score -- or even get a hit -- for the next six innings and the Red Sox got all the offense they'd need when the Indians intentionally walked Nomar again and O'Leary homered again, this time a three-run shot.

I remember the two Red Sox fans and myself jumping on the furniture and running around the suite while the Indians fan sunk deeper and deeper into his chair. The three of us too young to remember 1986 firsthand with any sort of clarity, this was the first time we had experienced the Red Sox winning a postseason series. And that was my happiest day as a baseball fan. Until Monday.

Monday, as I said, I had to work. Luckily, I work in the sports department at the newspaper in Rochester, NY and we always have the two TVs there tuned to sporting events. So, I was able to watch the game while I worked.

At first it looked like Pedro and Zito might match zeroes all night as both looked very sharp, but Pedro cracked first, allowing a run in the fourth on a walk and a double.

Zito was not only brilliant through the first five innings, allowing just two hits and no runs, he was also efficient, throwing just 62 pitches. In the top of the sixth, however, Varitek reached him for a solo homer to tie the game at 1-1 and I gave my first fist pump and yelp of joy of the night.

Then, it looked like Zito started to tire quickly, walking Damon and hitting Walker with a Nomar foul pop up mixed in. Up came Ramirez and I know this sounds like a load of bull, but I just felt like he was going to go deep. He went very deep, tagging a 2-2 pitch well into the left field stands to give the Red Sox a 4-1 lead.

I felt comfortable at that point, but Boston didn't make it easy. Pedro gave a run back in the sixth and, after a gruesome collision between Damon and Damian Jackson in the seventh, he quickly gave another run back in the eighth. Alan Embree and Timlin finished the eighth for Pedro, so the Red Sox went to the bottom of the ninth with a 4-3 lead.

Williamson, who had been so good (and maybe overused) in the first four games, walked the first four batters he faced. So, the pitcher who had pitched in games one, three and five in 1999 came in to pitch for his third time in this series after already appearing in games one and three.

Hernandez immediately bunted the runners over to second and third with one out, so Lowe had to get the next two outs very carefully to preserve the win.

Adam Melhuse took Lowe's first pitch for a ball and then fouled off the next one. He took another ball before another foul evened the count at 2-2. Then Lowe delivered a nasty pitch that started inside and then darted back over the corner of the plate at the last moment for a called strike three.

Chris Singleton came up next and took the first two pitches for balls. He then took ball three high, but it was called a strike and he fouled off the next pitch to even the count at 2-2. With the A's one strike away from elimination, Lowe delievered two more balls to load the bases with two outs for Terrence Long.

You may remember that Lowe intentionally walked Long in game one, but he didn't want to. If I need to get an Oakland hitter out in a tough spot and I got to choose which hitter it was, I'm pretty sure I'd pick Long.

Anyway, Lowe's first pitch to Long was right down the middle for a called strike. The next pitch was a ball, and Long fouled off the next pitch to fall behind 1-2. Then, another absolutely nasty pitch from Lowe that snuck over the corner for a called third strike to put the Red Sox in the ALCS.

In 1999, I was very happy, but I could believe what was happening. The Red Sox just pounded their way past the Indians and into the ALCS. This year, I'm very happy, but I can't believe what happened. The Red Sox did some good things to advance their cause, but they got a lot of help from the A's.

Before the playoffs started, Larry Mahnken told me that he was taping this year's playoff games and that I could get copies off him if I wanted them. Well, Larry, if you taped the Boston-Oakland games, I'd definitely like to get copies off you. I'm definitely going to need to see all of that again.

For now, however, I'm exceedingly happy that the Red Sox are in the ALCS. And I'm ecstatic that I have a ticket to game two of the ALCS, which will be the first playoff game I will have attended in person in my life.

I picked the Red Sox to beat the A's in five games and the Yankees to beat the Twins in four games in my ALDS previews, so this is what I expected to happen. However, I definitely knew that there was a good chance that the ticket I have for game two of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium would not have included the Red Sox. And I also knew there was some chance that the Yankees would not make the ALCS and I wouldn't have a ticket to game two.

So, I'm thrilled that everything worked out just the way I wanted it to, and I've got one explanation for why it did -- my authentic Nomar jersey.

My girfriend, Stacy, bought me my authentic Nomar jersey for Valentine's day and I kept it safe and clean in my closet for many months. Finally, on Friday, Sept. 3, I took it out and wore it for the first time. The reason being the Red Sox were playing the first game of a crucial three-game series against the New York Yankees.

The Red Sox won that game, and then I put the jersey away for awhile again. Sunday, I wore it while watching the Red Sox eke out a dramatic victory in game four of the ALDS. Monday, I wore it for the third time, and for the third time, the Red Sox won.

Coincidence? Probably. But there are some things I'm superstitious about, and you can bet I'll be wearing that jersey if the Red Sox are facing elimination against the Yankees.

NLDS recaps

Wow, I know a lot of people picked the Cubs to knock the Braves out of the playoffs, but how many people really thought both underdogs would win and we'd have a Chicago vs. Florida NLCS? Technically, I was wrong with both of my predictions in the NL, but fundamentally I feel good about one of them.

When I discussed the San Francisco vs. Florida series, I said the following to conclude the post:

"For my prediction, I'll go with the Giants in five games. I thought long and hard about picking the Marlins because I think this series is a lot closer than most people seem to think, but in the end I think Schmidt and Bonds will be able to make the difference for the Giants."

Well, the Giants dominated the Marlins in game one, and I believe they likely would have done so again in game five. However, in between, the Marlins won a shootout in California and two crazy games in Florida. Game two saw the Marlins take a quick 2-0 lead, only to have the Giants tie things up in the sixth. San Francisco then took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 11th, but the Marlins rallied for two runs with two outs to win the game in the bottom of the frame. In game three, Florida jumped out to a 5-1 lead before the Giants came back to tie the game in, you guessed it, the sixth inning. Florida then took a 7-5 lead in the bottom of the eighth thanks to a close play at home plate in which the ball got dislodged and rolled away. The Giants almost came back in the top of the ninth, but the Marlins won thanks to a close play at home plate in which the ball did not get dislodged.

When talking about the starting lineups of the two teams before the series, I said the following:

"The Giants obviously win left field by a lot, and they probably win right field by a little, but there's not another position where I'd say they definitely have the edge, or even another position where I could say they're definitely even with the Marlins."

Well, the Giants did have an advantage in left field, where Barry Bonds "hit" .222/.588/.333 (.921) for the Giants thanks mostly to eight walks while Jeff Conine hit just .267/.353/.267 (.620).

However, the Giants also had a significant advantage at third base, where Edgardo Alfonzo hit .529/.556/.764 (1.320) while protecting Bonds. Florida's third baseman, Miguel Cabrera (even though he didn't start all four games), hit .286/.375/.429 (.804) with all of his damage coming when he went 4-for-5 in game four.

Unfortunately for the Giants, their other seven offensive spots (including the pitchers) were pretty much black holes. The Marlins, on the other hand, had Ivan Rodriguez hitting .353/.450/.588 (1.038) and Luis Castillo hitting .294/.400/.471 (.871). They also got some surprising offense from their pitchers (.571/.571/.857), especially Dontrelle Willis and his 3-for-3 with a triple performance in game four.

Of course, Florida didn't actually hit much better than San Francisco did. The Marlins hit .253/.327/.363 (.690) while the Giants hit .235/.341/.301 (.642). The two teams had about the same number of at-bats with runners on base and with runners in scoring position, and the Giants hit slightly better in those two situations than the Marlins did.

No, probably the biggest reason the Marlins outscored the Giants 20-16 in the series is that San Francisco committed seven errors to Florida's two. The Giants scored one unearned run in the series while the Marlins scored five of them. There's your four-run difference right there.

Pitching-wise, I said that the Giants had the advantage in games one and five, and that turned out to be a no-brainer. Jason Schmidt was brilliant while pitching a complete game shutout in game one, allowing just three hits while striking out five. Florida's starter, Josh Beckett, had a very nice game one himself, allowing a run on two hits and five walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings, but the Giants had to feel good about the matchup of Schmidt vs. Beckett going into game five. Unfortunately for them, they weren't able to force a game five.

For game two, I thought the pitching matchup was about even, and it certainly turned out that way as Sidney Ponson and Brad Penny each allowed four runs and neither of them was able to go six innings. The difference in the game is that the Marlins got to the Giants bullpen better than the Giants got to the Marlins bullpen.

Talking about those bullpens before the series, I said the following:

"The Giants have a definite edge in the bullpen, although the Marlins do have two or three very dependable relievers, which is sometimes all you need in a playoff series."

Overall, the Marlins relievers had a 2.13 ERA in 12.2 innings while the Giants relievers had a 3.45 ERA in 15.2 innings. While I said that the Marlins have two or three relievers they can rely on, they ended up getting great performances from four of their bullpen guys. For the Giants, however, only Matt Herges was really lights out from the bullpen. In fact, San Francisco's relievers only allowed six earned runs, but they also allowed five unearned runs as the Giants defense made their jobs harder.

I thought the Marlins had starting pitcher advantage in game three, but it turned out to be just a one-inning advantage. Mark Redman and Kirk Rueter each allowed two runs, but Redman lasted six innings and Rueter could only go five. However, the bullpens for both teams were brilliant in this game until the fateful 11th inning.

In game four, it was a matchup of rookies and San Francisco's (Jerome Williams) lasted just two innings and allowed three innings. Fortunately for the Giants, they were able to come back later against Florida's (Willis). However, the Marlins got the better of the rest of the game and that was that.

I can't take credit for getting the series right because I picked the Giants to win and they didn't win, but I am pleased that I wrote that I thought this series was a lot closer than most other people did. The Giants were basically just a two-man team going into the playoffs and those two played fine in this series. A couple other guys stepped up in the series, but a lot of guys stepped down for them, and they came up short in two close games. Had they been able to luck their way to a win in one of those games, they probably would have won the series. But most people didn't even think it would come down to luck and I'm happy to say that I did.

And now that I'm done taking as much credit as possible for that series, it's time to talk about the series I really screwed up on. Actually, I only really messed up on one thing in the series between the Braves and Cubs.

I had a feeling the Braves would have a tough time against Mark Prior and they definitely did as he pitched a complete game, allowing one run on two hits and four walks with seven strikeouts.

Where I messed up was thinking that the Braves would be able to get some runs on the board against Kerry Wood. Wood started two games, allowing three runs on seven hits and seven walks with 18 strikeouts in 15.1 innings for a 1.76 ERA. If MVP awards were given out in the division series, Wood would have gotten the award for this series. He was much better than I thought he would be.

I thought the Braves starting pitchers would be at least decent since the Cubs offense wasn't very good, but it didn't really work out that way. Greg Maddux did have a nice, albeit short, outing with two runs allowed in six innings, but Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton weren't very good. In their four starts, they allowed 12 runs in 23.1 innings for a 4.63 ERA. Basically, they were good enough to beat Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement, who combined to allow seven runs in 10.1 innings for a 6.10 ERA, but they weren't nearly good enough to beat Wood.

Offensively, each team only had one really good hitter. Moises Alou hit .500/.524/.550 (1.074) for the Cubs while Marcus Giles hit .357/.412/.571 (.983) for the Braves. Eric Karros provided some surprising pop and Aramis Ramirez did about the same thing he did during the regular season for the Cubs, while Gary Sheffield and Andruw Jones did almost nothing for the Braves.

In the end, however, defense once again probably played as big a role in the series as the difference between the two offenses did. Atlanta committed six errors while Chicago did not make any. The Cubs outscored the Braves 19-15 in the series and scored one unearned run while the Braves obviously didn't score any.

So, that's about how we ended up with Marlins against Cubs in the NLCS. None of the four teams really tore things up offensively, but the Cubs and Marlins pitched better and played better defense. If the second round in the NL is anything like the first round, it should be pretty darn exciting.

Football stuff

Here's the link to my fantasy football column for this week:

Fantasy Football: Play stars

One hangover, one new life

Heading into Thursday's AL-only playoff action, the two Northeast teams involved in this year's postseason tournament found themselves in similarly unenviable situations. Both the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees had lost the first game of their best-of-five series, and needed to win Thursday's game two in order to avoid giving their small-market opponents a chance to sweep the AL East out of the playoffs on Saturday.

Despite the similarity of their standing in the series -- trailing one game to nothing -- there were differences in their situations.

The Yankees had lost their first game at home, meaning that even if New York won on Thursday, the Twins would be able to run back to their domed home with a chance to home-field advantage their way into the ALCS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, had lost their first game on the road. If they could scrape out a win on Thursday, they would be able to move on with two wins in the park the team was constructed to excel in.

Aside from the difference of the location of the losses, there was also the difference of the timing of the losses.

The Yankees played their opener on Tuesday afternoon, dropping a game they were never really in but almost came back to win anyway. They then had more than 48 hours to think about how poorly they had played and prepare themselves to give a better effort in game two. The Red Sox, meanwhile, had to wait until Wednesday night to get started, and then they lost a torturous, 12-inning game that they had several chances to win but ended up on the wrong side of one of the most remarkable and shocking plays in postseason history. After that devastating loss, they had less than 14 hours to recover before they were supposed to go save their season with a win in game two.

So, how did Thursday's action turn out for the longtime rivals turned one-time empathizers?

Well, one hangover, one new life.

The A's defeated Boston on Wednesday thanks to quality pitching and stellar defense on their end and wild pitching and atrocious defense on Boston's end. On Thursday, it was more of the same.

Game two started off well enough for the Red Sox. Tim Wakefield had a relatively easy scoreless first inning and although the Red Sox didn't score off Barry Zito in the first two innings, they did make him throw 34 pitches. Considering how much the bullpens got stretched out Wednesday night, the Red Sox were taking small victories where they could get them.

Then, in the second inning, things took on a familiar note for the Red Sox as the wildness and bad defense of the previous game reared its ugly head again.

Wakefield quickly got the first out on two pitches, but he then walked Jose Guillen and a passed ball let him move up to second. Wednesday's hero, Ramon Hernandez, followed with a much less dramatic but equally effective single to right field to drive in Oakland's first run of the game.

Wakefield's next pitch fluttered into Jermaine Dye and Eric Byrnes followed with a two-run double to left field that a good left fielder might have caught but Manny Ramirez did not.

That 3-0 lead would be enough for the A's, but the Red Sox were willing to give them more. Mark Ellis walked and Erubiel Durazo grounded out to give the Red Sox an opportunity to get out of the inning with runners on second and third and two outs. Eric Chavez obliged with another ground ball, but he hit it to Boston's worst fielder.

Todd Walker stopped the grounder, but didn't quite get it into his glove. When he reached over to pick it up, he bobbled it and then started to fall down. As he was falling, he tried to throw Chavez out, but his throw sailed way over Kevin Millar's head and allowed two more runs to score.

So, after just two innings, the Red Sox found themselves up against the wall, trailing 5-0 in the second game and 1-0 in the series. They needed to make something happen and they needed to make something happen fast. So they did. Just not enough.

Gabe Kapler flied out to center to start the third inning and then Doug Mirabelli doubled down the line in left to get things started.

Johnny Damon then hit a ground rule double to put the Red Sox on the board and Nomar Garciaparra walked to put the tying run in the on-deck circle in the person of Ramirez. Walker, who was Boston's offensive MVP in the first game, came up and grounded out on the first pitch, moving the runners up to second and third. So, Ramirez came up, not as the tying run, but still with the ability to get the Red Sox right back in the game.

Ramirez went 0-for-5 and left five men on base in game one. Surely he would be better in the clutch in game two, right? Well, it appeared so, as Ramirez laced the first pitch from Zito into the left field gap where it looked like it might find grass and reach the wall to drive in two runs. But the ball stayed in the air long enough for Guillen to keep running toward center, reaching out at the last second and gloving the ball on a dead run to stop Boston's run dead.

From there, Zito was masterful. He struck out the next five batters he faced before Damon and Garciaparra put together consecutive singles in the fifth. Walker, who had even less business batting third in game two against a tough lefty than he did in game one when he surprisingly homered twice, then grounded out to end the rally.

Ramirez finally picked up his first hit of the series with a single to lead off the sixth, but Zito calmly retired the next six Red Sox hitters in order to finish his day with seven solid innings of work. He allowed just the one run on five hits and two walks, and he struck out nine. His curve ball dazzled the Boston hitters all day, and those Red Sox hitters let him stay in the game too long for them to mount a comeback against Oakland's bullpen.

While Zito was painting a masterpiece, Wakefield tried his best to salvage the unraveling tapestry that was the Red Sox season. After the dreadful second inning ended, Wakefield allowed just three more runners to reach base over the next four innings. He retired the final nine Oakland hitters he faced, and struck out the side in order in the sixth.

The beleaguered Boston bullpen then tried to atone for its errors of the previous day as Alan Embree and Scott Williamson each pitched a scoreless inning to give the Boston bombardiers their best shot at rallying for victory.

It was not to be, however, as Oakland's succoring stalwarts stood as tall as they had the day before. Chad Bradford was summoned first and he discharged the Red Sox easily and quickly in the eighth inning. Then, with a four-run lead in the final frame, the A's surprisingly turned to Keith Foulke, who had thrown 51 pitches over three innings the game before, to record the final three outs.

Foulke stumbled slightly when he allowed a two-out single to Bill Mueller, but he recovered to retire pinch-hitter Jason Varitek to end the game.

And with that, the baseball world turned it's attention from the afternoon on the West Coast to the evening on the East Coast to see if the second struggling squad from the East would fare better than the first.

The Twins won game one of their series against the Yankees thanks to good starting pitching and better relief pitching on their end and terrible defense and a lack of clutch hitting on New York's end. On Thursday, it looked like it might be more of the same.

Just as Mike Mussina did in game one, Andy Pettitte pitched a scoreless first inning in game two, allowing just Shannon Stewart to reach base on a walk. In the bottom of the inning, the Yankees had a chance to take a big lead early.

Alfonso Soriano led off with a single into left field and then Derek Jeter and Jason Giambi both dumped singles into shallow right field to load the bases with nobody out. Fortunately for the Twins, the Yankees were unable to come up with the big hit just like game one.

Brad Radke got Bernie Williams to fly out to center field for a sacrifice fly that gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead and then he struck out Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui to end the inning without any further damage done.

Having escaped from that potentially disastrous jam, Radke settled down nicely. He retired the side in order the next two innings and got the leadoff hitter out in the fourth to extend his streak of consecutive batters retired to 10 before Posada doubled. Radke left Posada at second thanks to two groundouts, worked out of a two on and two out jam in the fifth and allowed a harmless walk in the sixth.

Meanwhile, Pettitte cruised along through the first four innings, allowing just two baserunners while striking out seven batters. He finally faltered in the fifth when he let Torii Hunter tag him with a leadoff homer to tie the game at a run apiece. Then, the New York defense tried its best to sabotage Pettitte.

Pettitte got the next two batters out after Hunter's home run, but then Christian Guzman reached on an error by Jeter. Stewart came up next, and hit a ground ball slightly to the right of up the middle that Soriano could not quite get to. Pettitte bailed his defense out by getting Luis Rivas to ground out to Aaron Boone.

Pettitte walked Doug Mientkiewicz to lead off the sixth and then, after Pettitte got the next two batters out, the Yankee defense struck again as Hunter reached on an "infield single" to Jeter. Pettitte then decided to take matters into his own hands and struck out Corey Koskie. He then pitched a scoreless seventh inning to finish his night with one run allowed on four hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts.

So, the Yankees and Twins stretched with the score knotted at one, and then -- after they stretched too long for Ron Gardenhire's liking -- things fell apart for the Twins and the slate was wiped clean for the Yankees.

Radke hit Nick Johnson with his fourth pitch of the seventh. Juan Rivera then bunted Johnson to second and Radke's night was over after 98 pitches thrown. LaTroy Hawkins, who had shut the Yankees down in game one, was called upon to do so again in game two. Unfortunately, the script had changed for this game.

Soriano greeted Hawkins by patiently working the count to 3-1 and then ripping a single into left field to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead. Hawkins then got Jeter to hit a high chopper back toward the mound that he fielded in plenty of time and then threw into the stand to put the runners on second and third with one out.

This brought up an interesting decision for the Twins. Hawkins throws right-handed and Giambi, now batting, bats left-handed. First base was open, but Giambi had been struggling mightily in recent games. The Twins decided to pitch to Giambi. Giambi singled into center field, and that was the end of the game.

The Minnesota relievers didn't allow anymore runs, but it didn't matter. Mariano Rivera didn't pitch in game one, so he was certainly capable of pitching two innings in game two, and that's exactly what Joe Torre asked him to do.

Now, Rivera hasn't been quite as automatic this year as he had been in year's past, but he was still damn good. The Twins might have thought they had a chance if they had kept the Yankees lead to just 2-1, but there was no way Rivera was going to blow a three-run lead.

As it turned out, Rivera didn't even allow any of the six batters he faced to reach base. He threw 24 pitches, 17 for strikes, and the only reason the pitch count was that high is because Hunter worked him for an eight-pitch at-bat leading off the ninth that culminated with Hunter striking out swinging.

So, the two AL East team into the playoffs went into Thursday's games in the same situation and got different results.

The Red Sox played hung over and now they hang over the edge of a cliff, precariously close to slipping into the void of the offseason. The Yankees took two days to relax and reflect, got a new life and now would probably once again be considered the favorites to win the series.

However, just because the Red Sox are in position to lose and the Yankees are back in position to win doesn't mean both of those things will happen.

The recent history of both the A's and the Red Sox should give hope to Boston and fear to Oakland that the Red Sox could possibly still come back and win the series.

Two years ago, the A's won the first two games against the Yankees before losing the next three, including the infamous why-was-Derek-Jeter-there-to-make-that-play-and-why-didn't-Jeremy-Giambi-slide game three. Two years before that, the Red Sox lost the first two games to the Indians before rebounding to win the next three, including the legendary Pedro-Martinez-had-a-bad-back-but-he-came-in-to-pitch-six-hitless-innings-in-relief-anyway game five.

Furthermore, there's really no reason to think the Red Sox can't win the next three games. The next two games are in Fenway Park, where the Red Sox went 53-28 while scoring 6.57 runs per game and allowing just 4.88 runs per game. Away from their home park, the A's went just 39-42 this year while scoring 4.77 runs per game and allowing 4.54 runs per game.

The final game of the series would be back in Oakland, but the Red Sox would have Pedro Martinez back on the mound for that game. The Red Sox nearly won a game in Oakland with Pedro on the mound on Wednesday, and there's probably a 50-percent or better chance that they would do so again if it got to game five. If you assume that the Red Sox have a 65-percent chance of winning a home game against the A's, then Boston's got a 21-percent chance of winning the series.

That's not great, but it's something that can provide real hope to Red Sox fans. Even if the odds are worse than that, even if the Red Sox only have a 10-percent -- or even a 5-percent -- chance of winning this series, they've still got a chance.

Meanwhile, there's recent history for both the Twins and Yankees that suggests that the Yankees shouldn't make reservations for the ALCS yet.

Last year, the Twins stunned the A's by winning game one of their ALDS in Oakland, but the A's were able to come back and even the series in game two. The A's then took the first game in Minnesota and seemed to have the series all but wrapped up. Not so fast, as those pesky Twins evened the series in a game four blowout and then rode back into Oakland and shocked the A's in game five to advance to the ALCS.

While that was going on last year, the Yankees were splitting the first two games of their ALDS against the Angels at home, just like they did with the Twins this year. As you all know, the Angels and Yankees went back to Anaheim, and the Yankees went back to the Bronx alone two games later, having been eliminated from the playoffs in the first round.

In summation, the A's lead the Red Sox two games to none, the Yankees and the Twins are tied at a game apiece, and nothing in the AL has been decided yet.

Enjoy the games, and don't worry about your favorite team getting eliminated until it actually happens.

Faith restored

I went to sleep as miserable as possible, one of the best baseball games I have ever had the pleasure to watch being ruined by the fact that the team that I love did not win. Actually, that's not true. The game was not ruined for me at all. In fact, last night was one of my favorite baseball experiences in a long time.

First, there was the fact that I got to watch 12 straight innings of tense, dramatic baseball. Second, I was able to chronicle my thoughts of last night's game with 45 separate posts over five hours, starting at 9:50 p.m. and ending at 2:53 a.m. Third, I was able to follow along with fans of both teams on the 903-post thread over at Baseball Primer's game chatter. I probably contributed more than 30 of those posts, although most of them were pretty nonsensical.

Anyway, as I said in my final post last night (or early this morning, actually), I had lost faith in the Red Sox for the moment, but I hoped to get it back with a night of sleep. Well, I'm happy to report that I have found hope, and I'd like to share it with my fellow Red Sox fans. So, here are my reasons to have faith that the Red Sox can win game two, which starts in just over four hours.

1. The Red Sox issued 10 walks and hit a batter, and the A's were only able to score five runs. Oakland's offense is worse than I thought.

2. Tim Hudson only walked one batter, but the Red Sox touched him up for 10 hits. During the season, Hudson walked 2.29 batters per nine innings and gave up 0.82 hits per inning. Meanwhile, Barry Zito walked 3.42 batters per nine innings and allowed hits at about the same rate as Hudson (0.80 hits per inning). My point is that the Red Sox should be able to get more runners against Zito, which should lead to more runs.

3. Zito's only start against Boston this year came in Oakland, and he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings. If he fails to go at least six innings today, Oakland should be in big trouble.

4. Tim Wakefield was decent in two starts against Oakland this year, allowing six runs in 12 innings. The better of those two starts came in oakland, where he allowed two runs in six innings. If he can go seven or eight innings and allow 2-4 runs today, I feel confident the Red Sox can win.

5. Oakland's closer, Keith Foulke, pitched three innings and threw 51 pitches last night (mostly this morning for me) and I have to assume he's unavailable today. Meanwhile, none of Boston's best relievers -- such as they are -- pitched more than an inning and none of them threw more than 15 pitches. They should all be available today.

6. The Red Sox scored four runs with their fourth and fifth hitters combining to go 0-for-10 with two walks. I don't think either of them will go hitless again today, nevermind both of them.

7. The last time Wakefield started against a lefty in the playoffs was in the 1992 NLCS for Pittsburgh. He pitched two complete games in that series to beat Tom Glavine twice.

8. And finally, if any Red Sox fan out there can't imagine the Red Sox coming back to win game two tonight, just keep this in mind:

Who on earth could have imagined game one ending the way it did?

Unbelievable

Squeeze bunt. A's win. I'm going to bed. The good news is that I only have to wait 13 hours for game two of the series. The bad news is that I'm so utterly devastated by this loss that I've lost hope for the moment. Hopefully, a night's sleep will restore it. If you want to ride this rollercoaster of a game from my perspective, you can go back to Wednesday's 9:50 p.m. post and follow along. I gave running commentary for five straight hours. Goodnight.

Blah

Lowe walks Erubiel Durazo to lead off the 12th. Eric Chavez follows with a double play ball, but the Red Sox can't turn it. Runner on second with one out for Tejada.

Update: Tejada grounds out to third with Chavez going to second. Hatteberg is up with two outs.

Update: Lowe walks Hatteberg and Chavez steals third. Runners on the corners with two outs for Terrence Long.

Update: Hatteberg goes to second and the Red Sox intentionally walk Long to load the bases with two outs for Ramon Hernandez.

Holy crap

After Bill Mueller is intentionally walked, Gabe Kapler hits a screaming grounder down the third base line that Eric Chavez dives to grab and then Chavez dives to tag third base before Manny gets there. We're going to the bottom of the 12th still tied. I'm so nervous I'm now having trouble typing.

Rick Ankiel?

Harden walks Manny and then, on an 0-2 pitch to Cookie Monster, uncorks one to the backstop. Harden regroups to strike out Ortiz. Runner on second with one out for Kevin Millar.

Update: Harden gets Millar to pop up to Eric Chavez. It's up to the batting champ now.

Time for 12

Derek Lowe gets out of the inning with a strikeout of Ellis and we're going to the 12th inning with Rich Harden coming in for the A's. If I had known this game was going to go 12 innings, I may not have tried to keep running commentary. Now I feel like I have to see things through to the end. I'm very happy that I don't work early in the morning. Game two starts in less than 14 hours. I'm getting incoherent.

Starter in for relief

Derek Lowe comes in for the 11th inning and walks the first man he faces.

Update: Eric Byrnes tries to bunt the first pitch, misses, then doesn't try to bunt anymore and strikes out.

Update: Chris Singleton grounds into a fielder's choice and then steals second. Mark Ellis can win it with a single.

Foulke escapes

Foulke gets Jackson swinging on a 3-2 pitch to keep things tied going into the bottom of the 11th. The A's better hope they win it here, because Foulke has thrown 51 pitches and is definitely done. Then again, the Red Sox got a scoreless inning out of Scott Williamson, so maybe the A's can get a scoreless inning out of a crappy pitcher too.

Kapler K's

Keith Foulke comes back out for his third inning and ends a great battle with Gabe Kapler by striking him out looking on the 10th pitch of the at-bat.

Update: Foulke strikes out Jason Varitek and has now retired all eight batters he's faced.

Update: Damon ends Foulke's streak by drawing a walk. Time for Nomar to show that he's still a clutch hitter.

Update: Damon steals second and Nomar has a full count.

Update: The A's give Nomar an intentional fourth ball to bring up Damian Jackson.

Strike him out, throw him out

Well, sort of. Williamson strikes out Long on a 3-2 pitch with the runner going and Long walks in front of Varitek as he tries to throw to second. The umpire calls interference, double play, inning over. On to the 11th. What a game this is. I need drugs now please.

Ugh

Scott Williamson is in to pitch the 10th for the Red Sox. I don't see this going well.

Update: Williamson strikes out Tejada on some very generous strike calls from Randy Marsh.

Update: Williamson walks Hatteberg on four pitches and none of them were close.

Foulke shows how it's done

Keith Foulke continues to show the Red Sox what a closer should look like, pitching his second straight 1-2-3 inning.

Extra innings

Embree gets Chavez to ground out to Nomar, who makes it an adventure. Time for some free baseball. I may not make it. I need a sedative.

Tie game

Durazo lines a pitch into left field to tie the game. Now the A's have runners on the corners with two outs and Eric Chavez has a chance to win the game.

Two down

Kim strikes Ellis out. It's up to Erubiel Durazo now. And Grady Little is turning things over to Alan Embree. Now this is how the "closer by committee" was supposed to work. Don't go with a designated closer, go with the guy who gives you the best chance of getting the needed outs.

Oh boy

Kim hits Singleton. Two on and one out for Mark Ellis.

Here we go?

Kim walks pinch-hitter Billy McMillon. Chris Singleton is up with one on and one out.

One down

Kim gets Ramon Hernandez to fly out for the first out.

Foulke keeps it close

Keith Foulke gave up two deep fly balls in the top of the ninth, but got the Red Sox in order. Now it's up to Kim to preserve the one-run lead.

Timlin takes charge

Mike Timlin comes in and pitches a 1-2-3 eighth inning with two strikeouts. The Red Sox take a 4-3 lead to the top of the ninth inning and then Byung-Hyun Kim will probably take over.

Looking for insurance

The Red Sox are looking to add to their one-run lead in the top of the eighth. Cookie Monster (David Ortiz) led off with a walk and Bill "Batting Champ" Mueller doubled with one out to put runners on second and third. Grady Little sends David McCarty in to pinch-hit for Trot Nixon and Ken Macha summons Chad Bradford to replace Ricardo Rincon.

Update: The managers are starting to match wits now, as Adrian Brown comes into to replace pinch-hitter McCarty.

Update: Brown strikes out. Note to Grady Little: lefty/righty matchups are nice, but it's better to go with the guy who is capable of hitting over the guy who isn't. The A's are intentionally walking Varitek to load the bases for Damon with two outs.

Update: Damon grounds out to end the inning. Now it's up to the Boston bullpen to hold a one-run lead.

Pedro Houdini

A magical escape job by Pedro Martinez. After Walker's miscue put a runner on second with one out, Pedro got Chris Singleton to fly out to left and then walked Mark Ellis. Pedro then engaged in a dramatic, agonizing duel with Erubiel Durazo that culminated with Durazo walking on about the 38th pitch of the at-bat (warning: possible exaggeration). Pedro then got Eric Chavez to pop up to Jason Varitek in foul territory with his 130th pitch of the game. Pedro's done and the Red Sox are going into the eighth up 4-3.

Not perfect after all

After going 4-for-4 with two home runs, so far, at the plate, Todd Walker makes his first miscue of the game in the field. After Pedro gave up a leadoff single, Jermaine Dye hit a perfect double play ball to Nomar that Walker then threw way over Kevin Millar's head. Dye's on second with one out and Singleton up.

Making his mark

Todd Walker hits his second home run of the night, a two-run shot, to put the Red Sox up 4-3. He's 4-for-4 on the night with two homers and two singles. Any more complaints about him hitting third?

Update: I should note that my friend Todd called Walker's second home run (in case you're wondering, Todd's last name is not also Walker).

Hudson's done

Ken macha is bringing in the lefty Ricardo Rincon to pitch to left-handed hitting Todd Walker with two outs in the seventh. Hudson walked Jason Varitek on four pitches to start the inning and was struggling with his velocity, but Johnny Damon bailed him out by grounding into a double play. Nomar then ripped a single into left to end Hudson's night. Varitek and Walker have reached base six times in six appearances between them and Walker will try to keep that going.

Pedro's back

Pedro cruises through the sixth inning to keep the Red Sox within a run with nine outs left for each team. I know this game is going at a normal speed, but it seems to be flying by for me. I'm not sure why. Pedro's thrown 97 pitches, so he should have one or two innings left in him tonight.

Update:Hudson's back out for the top of the seventh, as ESPN said he's having problems with his thumb on his throwing hand. There are two relievers warming up in the Oakland pen.

No damage done

If Hudson is hurting (and it looks like he is), it didn't prevent him from getting out of the top of the sixth inning without any runs scoring. Kevin Millar singled, but that was all. It will be interesting to see if Hudson comes back out for the seventh.

Hudson hurting?

There is a big conference on the mound for the A's as Hudson has apparently aggravated something. He's staying in the game, however, with one out in the sixth.

Update: Ricardo Rincon is warming up in the bullpen.

Whew

Pedro got my heartbeat up to a new level by giving up a single to Mark Ellis and then throwing the ball away on a pickoff attempt, allowing Ellis to move to third with one out. Pedro then got Erubiel Durazo to hit a one-hopper back to the mound with Ellis going on contact and Pedro threw home to get the out there. Eric Chavez followed with a pop up to end the inning and it's 3-2 A's after five innings.

Not earning his keep

For the second time in the game, Manny comes up with runners on base and two outs and grounds out to end the inning. Nomar lined a 3-1 pitch into left for a single and Todd Walker followed with his third hit, a seeing-eye single up the middle, to put runners on the corners with two outs for Manny.

New life

Jason Varitek lifts my spirits by hitting Boston's second solo home run of the game, to almost the same spot Walker hit his. Boston trails 3-2 in the top of the fifth inning.

Not making it easy

Pedro pitched a scoreless fourth inning, but it wasn't easy for him. Scott Hatteberg hit a hard line drive, but it was right at Johnny Damon. Pedro issued another walk, with one out to Ramon Hernandez, and then went 2-0 to Jermaine Dye before Dye helped him out by popping up on a ball outside of the strike zone.

Opposite paths

Hudson started off the game a little slow, got into a jam and worked his way out of it and now looks like he's cruising. Pedro started off the game on fire, got into a jam and gave up three runs and all the sudden the A's have to feel very confident right now.

What happened?

After cruising through the first seven outs, Pedro has fallen into a funk in the third. Erubiel Durazo just doubled to drive in both runners and give the A's a 2-1 lead as Pedro has allowed three straight hitters to reach.

Update: Pedro gives up a single to Miguel Tejada to let another run come in. Tejada helps Pedro out by taking a wide turn around first and getting caught to end the inning. 3-1 A's after three innings.

Oh boy

Pedro walks Mark Ellis, who had a .313 OBP in the regular season, on four pitches. Two on and one out for the heart of Oakland's lineup.

That's why they play the games

Chris Singleton doubles off Pedro with one out. So, one of the two worst hitters in each lineup now has an extra-base hit tonight.

Hudson escapes

Oakland almost gave the Red Sox a chance to break the game open, but Hudson got Manny to ground out with the bases loaded to end the inning. With runners on first and second and one out, Nomar hit a double play ball to Eric Chavez, who tried to tag out Varitek and throw to first instead of going for the 5-4-3 double play. Walker followed with an infield single to set things up for Manny. Dave O'Brien noted that Manny was 0-for-8 with the bases loaded this season and, sure enough, he missed another opportunity here.

Update: The bad news for the A's is that Hudson has now thrown 55 pitches through three innings.

Pecking away

Jason Varitek singles, so the Red Sox have a hit in each inning so far. They're going to need to string some together at some point to score more runs.

Update: Damon follows with another single, giving the Red Sox runners on first and second with one out and Nomar at the plate.

No no-hitter

Jose Guillen singles off Pedro with two outs in the bottom of the second for Oakland's first baserunner of the night.

Update: Pedro gets Ramon Hernandez to fly out to center field. 1-0 Red Sox after two innings. Pedro's thrown 26 pitches through two innings.

Speed doesn't matter

Pedro's fastball is hitting 89-90 mph on ESPN's radar gun and he looks as good as he ever has. Further proof that movement and location are much more important than velocity.

Helping Hudson

Kevin Millar gets an infield single, although his complete lack of speed made the play a lot closer than it should have been, and then he gets thrown out at second trying to advance on a pitch that barely got two feet away from Ramon Hernandez. Red Sox lead 1-0 going to the bottom of the second.

Dealin'

Pedro throws just 11 pitches -- with nine for strikes -- to retire the side in order in the first. I'm getting calmer by the minute.

Good start

Tim Hudson rebounded to strike out Manny Ramirez and end the inning, but Walker's home run certainly eased my nerves. With Pedro heading to the mound with a 1-0 lead, I can breathe normally for at least a little while.

Home Run

Todd Walker takes the first four pitches for a 3-1 count and then drives a solo homer into right field. There was a lot of griping before the game with Walker batting third, but he made Grady Little look good there.

Game on

First pitch from Tim Hudson to Johnny Damon is a strike. Second pitch is a grounder to second. Not a great start.

I'm here

Is everybody else as excited and nervous as I am? I haven't had this much nervous energy since game five of the 1999 ALDS. If this game goes as well as that one did, I'll sleep well tonight.

Tonight

I just wanted to let you all know that I'll probably be posting my thoughts throughout tonight's Red Sox game against the A's. Also, I'll probably be on instant messenger (screen name: bj001h) if any Red Sox (or A's) fans want to chat. I'll probably be checking in on Baseball Primer's Game Chatter for the game as well.

In case you can't tell, I'm very excited for tonight. Four years is too long to wait for a playoff game.

And they're off

The 2003 playoffs got underway yesterday, and boy was it a fun start. I've already talked in great detail about the game between the Twins and Yankees, so I won't bore you with any more about that except to say that it was about as good a game as you could have asked for to kick off the playoffs. I mean, it pretty much had everything you could ask for -- good defense and bad defense, good pitching, surprising pitchers stepping up, aggressive baserunning, and a late comeback attempt.

The next two games were also excellent, featuring three great performances by starting pitchers. Actually, of the four starting pitching performances yesterday in the NL, three of them were about what I expected and one of them surprised me.

Jason Schmidt pretty much singlehandedly won his game against the Marlins, allowing just three hits and no walks with five strikeouts to pitch a complete game shutout. I didn't get to watch all of the game, but from what I saw it looked like the Marlins couldn't have hit Schmidt yesterday if they played all day long.

Of course, Schmidt's performance yesterday shouldn't have been a surprise (and it wasn't a surprise to me). During the regular season, he had the lowest ERA in the NL and led all starters in the majors in Average Game Score (64.9). Schmidt's Game Score yesterday was 86. Schmidt had five complete games in the regular season, including three shutouts. He also had five regular season starts with a game score above 80.

Quite simply, he showed all year that he is capable of being dominant, and it should have been no shock that he was dominant in the first game of the playoffs against a good, but not great Florida offense. Schmidt is pretty much the reason I picked the Giants to win in five games. I think the Marlins will win two of the next three games and then Schmidt will win the series with another great start in game five.

Schmidt's mound opponent was also very impressive, and that also shouldn't have been a big surprise. Josh Beckett allowed just one run in seven innings. He only gave up two hits and he struck out nine, although he did walk five. However, two of those walks were to Barry Bonds -- one was intentional and one had some questionable calls from the umpire.

After the All-Star break, Beckett had a 2.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 93 strikeouts (9.48 K/9IP), 30 walks (3.06 BB/9IP) and five homers allowed (0.51 HR/9IP) in 88.1 innings. And that's exactly what you saw yesterday -- a lot of strikeouts and too many walks, not many hits and no home runs.

In Atlanta, Russ Ortiz's poor performance didn't surprise me. I thought he might give the Braves a quality start, but I didn't think he'd have a dominant outing. he had a nice record, but everybody knows that was mostly due to Atlanta's great offense. He's a good pitcher, but not anywhere near a great one.

The pitching performance that really surprised me yesterday was the one from Kerry Wood. He allowed one run in seven innings before his control problems surfaced (maybe because he was tired) in the eighth inning and his bullpen had to bail him out. His final line was two runs on two hits and five walks with 11 strikeouts in 7.1 innings.

I really thought the Braves hitters would be able to get to Wood, and that's why I predicted Atlanta would win this series in four games. Now I have to change my prediction already, because I don't think Atlanta can beat Mark Prior in game three. And if Wood pitches this well again in game five (if there is a game five), then Atlanta might be looking at another early exit.

So, I hope everybody enjoyed the first day, because it's almost time to do it all again. First, we've got the second game of both NL series and both games should feature more runs than yesterday's games did. After the Senior Circuit finishes up, it will be time for what may be the best game of the first round.

Pedro Martinez and Tim Hudson sqaure off as the Red Sox and A's play the first game of what many people are dubbing the "SABR Series."

Speaking of the A's, Billy Beane may have just irritated a bunch of people again, unless the likes of Joe Morgan have recently gotten a whole lot more tolerant of his cockiness. The story I'm referring to is Sean McAdam's story on ESPN.com this morning that says there is more pressure on the A's to win.

The quote I'm referring to as potentially aggrivating people is this one to end the story:

"There's two ways of looking at it,'' reflects Beane of past playoff disappointments. "No. 1, there's nothing I can do about it. No. 2, I thought the 2001 club was the best team we've had here and we didn't win it. So my mindset is, we're in. It doesn't matter who's on the roster and who's not. The whole thing gives me a sense of balance -- knowing that if I get us there enough times, we're going to win it. It allows me to know that every year, we have a chance.''

Let me highlight the part that I think will annoy people:

"[I]f I get us there enough times, we're going to win it."

I can hear Joe Morgan right now.

"Did Billy Beane play the games? No. He didn't get the A's to the playoffs, the players did. Billy Beane spent most of the season writing a book, how could he have gotten the A's to the playoffs? He should just keep his mouth shut and let the players get the credit they deserve."

Note - I again wanted to thank everybody who has been stopping by to read my blog. As you may have realized, yesterday was the final day of September. I had over 400 visitors yesterday to give me a final September total of 7,320 visitors.

That's almost 5,000 more visitors than I had in August, when I was very busy with work and considered discontinuing the blog. Needless to say, I'm glad I didn't. My next goal is a 10,000-visitor month. With 31 days in October and the playoffs going on, I'm thinking that I might not even have to wait that long for it.

Thanks again everybody.

My debut as a Yankee fan

If you've read this blog at all, then you probably know that I'm a die-hard Red Sox fan. By definition, that means that I hate the Yankees. However, if you've been reading recently, you know that I need to root for the Yankees to win their first series against the Twins. If you didn't read that post, it's because I have a free ticket to game two of the ALCS if the Yankees are in the ALCS.

Today, I went to watch game one of that series at my friend Rob's house (Rob is the friend whose family is giving me the free ticket). A lot of people have complained that today's game started at 1 p.m., but it was perfect for Rob and I because we both had things to do at night. Anyway, I decided to keep a running diary of the first game I've ever rooted for the Yankees to win. Here goes.

1:00 p.m. - I finally arrive at Rob's house as construction almost makes me late for the game. Rob is wearing the Tino Martinez jersey that he always wears when the Yankees are playing an important game or when he's attending the game in person. Our announcers for the day are Jon Miller and Joe Morgan. I wish I didn't have to listen to Morgan, but at least Chris Berman's not involved here.

1:02 - Joe Morgan takes just two minutes to say something stupid, noting the following about Shannon Stewart:

"He gets on base, he steals bases. Perfect leadoff hitter."

Stewart certainly does get on base (he's never had an OBP below .360 in his career), but he only stole four bases this season. And he was thrown out six times. He is not a good basestealer any more.

1:07 - The 2003 playoffs get under way as Mike Mussina throws strike one to Stewart.

Rob: "There it is. We're winning the World Series." He's joking. Stewart immediately doubles.

1:09 - Luis Rivas bunts Stewart over to third. Normally, I'd rip the Twins for giving up one of their valuable outs, but I'm not going to this time. The Twins have lost 13 straight games to the Yankees and they have a pitcher on the mound who has never made a postseason start. They won't say it, and they might not even think it, but I think it would ease the Twins nerves a lot if they get on the board first. Bunting decreases the chances of a big inning, but it increases the chances of scoring a single run in this instance.

The Yankees must think it would be a big advantage for the Twins to score first too, because they're playing the infield in. Although, this might not hurt them that much, because their infielders have no range anyway. Unfortunately for the Twins, they hit two harmless ground balls and strang Stewart at third base.

1:15 - Alfonso Soriano helps Johan Santana's nerves and pitch count by swinging at the first pitch and grounding out. I will never understand why the Yankees have Soriano batting first.

1:17 - Nice catch by Jayson Stark's choice for the AL MVP award. I just wanted to touch on the ridiculous support Stewart is getting for the AL MVP award. If you don't want to read a bunch of stats about this subject, feel free to skip ahead to the next entry. His case is helped by the fact that there is such a definitive split in the team he helped to reach the playoffs. The Twins traded for Stewart over the All-Star break and it's impossible to not notice that the Twins were 44-49 before the break and 46-23 after the break.

So, must be all because of Stewart, right? Well, no. After Stewart's arrival, the Twins offense improved from 4.63 runs scored per game to 5.38 runs scored per game, which certainly helped. But their pitching staff also improved from 5.01 runs allowed per game to 4.16 runs allowed per game. Let's assume that Stewart is entirely responsible for the Twins increase on offense and see how many wins he was worth.

Using their 366 runs scored and 283 runs allowed over their final 68 games, they should have gone 42.5-25.5. If they had kept scoring at the pre All-Star break level, they would have scored 315 runs after the All-Star break, which would have made their 68-game pythagorean record 37.6-30.4. So, even if you assume that Stewart's arrival is the only thing that made the offense score 0.75 more runs per game, he was only worth five wins over the second half. Of course, five wins is still pretty significant for any team, but Stewart obviously wasn't solely responsible for Minnesota's offensive increase.

Aaron Gleeman thinks using an adjusted OPS of (OBP*1.7)+SLG is a nice snapshot of a player's offensive production, and I happen to agree. Let's look at the percent change in adjusted OPS for each of the Minnesota's core player from before the All-Star break to after it. I'll list the player's name, the adjusted OPS before the break, the adjusted OPS after the break and the percent change. I'll list them in order of the best improvement to the worst decline.

Christian Guzman, .826, 1.004, +21.5
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1.070, 1.167, +9.1
A.J. Pierzynski, 1.043, 1.115, +6.9
Jacque Jones, 1.009, 1.057, +4.8
Luis Rivas, .914, .902, -1.3
Matthew LeCroy, 1.077, 1.046, -3
Torii Hunter, .995, .961, -3.4
Corey Koskie, 1.158, 1.059, -9.3

As you can see, the lineup as a whole improved after the All-Star break. Sure, four of the spots improved and four declined, but three of the four declines were insignificant while just one of the four improvements was insignificant. And none of the declines was nearly as big as Guzman's 21.5-percent improvement. If you were ranking the reasons for the Twins turnaround, Stewart might actually rank third behind the pitching staff improving and Guzman improving.

Bottom line - it's ridiculous to even think of voting for Stewart as the AL MVP. If he actually wins it, they may as well just stop giving out the award because it would cease to have any meaning whatsoever. OK, I'm done ranting now.

1:19 - Guess who gets New York's first hit of the 2003 playoffs?

1:22 - Santana gets out of the inning without further trouble and, despite the fact that I need the Yankees to win to be able to see a playoff game, I find myself pulling for the Twins a little. I guess I can't help it.

1:30 - Rob's dad calls for the first time during the game and he doesn't even want to talk to Rob. He wants to talk to me to tell me that the last set of downs in the Patriots game on Sunday was the worst set of downs he's ever seen.

I should explain what Rob's dad is like to all of you. He's a short, little, Jewish man who likes to make racist statements and says things that have absolutely no evidence backing them up. For example, after the Red Sox signed Manny Ramirez, Rob's dad told me that the Yankees didn't want to sign Ramirez because they were afraid that it would be too easy for him to feed his cocaine habit if he was living in the Bronx where he grew up.

You probably wouldn't want a young child to hear some of the things Rob's dad says, but if you're old enough to realize that the things he's saying are wrong, then it's funny to hear those things coming out of his mouth. In fact, I'm pretty sure he says most of them just to see what kind of reaction he gets from people.

Rob's dad is also a nut of a Yankees fan. He'll turn a game off and back on again multiple times depending on how the Yankees are doing. If he's in attendance at a game and the Yankees start doing badly, he'll threaten to make everybody leave even if it's just the first inning. I've been over Rob's parents house for dinner and had Rob's dad skip dinner because the Yankees lost or were in the process of losing. It can really be pretty funny.

1:41 - The Yankees' questionable defense rears its ugly head for the first time as Soriano tried to barehand a slow grounder from Guzman and it gets behind him.

1:45 - Maybe Stewart really is the MVP as he singles in his second at-bat (I'm kidding by the way). And Guzman tests Matsui's arm going to third on Stewart's grounder into shallow left field. It looked like the throw beat Guzman to third, but he's called safe. Rivas then hits a soft liner to shallow center, and Bernie Williams doesn't even come closing to throwing Guzman out at home. Heck, he doesn't even come close to making it close. Aggressiveness from the Twins and bad defense from the Yankees has Minnesota up early.

1:50 - They just showed a replay of the play at third. Guzman slid a bit too early, but he slid away from Aaron Boone. Matsui's throw was a little high, but it got to third in plenty of time for Boone to tag Guzman out. Boone just missed with the tag.

1:57 - After striking out Soriano, Santana shows his first sign of nervousness by walking Nick Johnson on four pitches.

2:03 - Santana comes back to strike out Jason Giambi on three pitches after walking Jeter. However, Santana's already thrown 52 pitches through three innings. The Twins bullpen will definitely be a factor in this game (when I wrote this, I obviously had no idea how true it would end up being).

2:08 - Rob and I have been flipping over to "Mike and the Mad Dog" on the YES Network on occassion, and Yankees fans are already starting to worry. And now Soriano is unable to get to another infielder groudner, giving the Twins a baserunner they maybe shouldn't have had.

2:18 - Mussina gets Guzman to pop up to Boone in foul territory after intentionally walking Pierzynski to load the bases with two outs. For the first time, I was really rooting for the Yankees here. I like seeing the Twins do well, but I would have felt uneasy with Minnesota taking a big lead in the first game of a series that I need the Yankees to win.

2:23 - Bernie cranks a ball to right field that Jones misplays, although he probably wouldn't have been able to catch it anyway. As the ball goes over Jones' head, however, Williams falls down rounding first base and has to settle for a single. Hideki Matsui then grounds into a double play to give Santana a nice, easy inning.

2:32 - Rick reed is warming up while the Twins bat in the top of the fifth. If something's wrong with Santana, the Twins are in big trouble (or maybe they're not...).

2:36 - Santana is out of the game after four shutout innings with just 59 pitches thrown. Reed is getting as many warmup pitches as he needs and Mad Dog just said that Santana has bad cramps. The Yankees just got a big break.

(Santana did indeed have cramps, but he should be able to go in game four. And it obviously wasn't that big a break for New York).

2:42 - Another nice defensive play by Guzman to help Reed get a second quick out. I've noticed this before, but they just showed the replays of the three plays where Guzman's hustle earned the Twins their run, and it struck me again -- Guzman is, well, husky (he's listed at 6-0, 195 pounds, but I'd guess he's a bit shorter and a bit heavier). He doesn't look like he should be fast, but the fact that he is makes me happy.

2:44 - Soriano doubles into the gap and that's it for Reed. Ron Gardenhire goes to his third pitcher of the game, J.C. Romero, in just the fifth inning. Rob's dad calls for the second time, apparently angry that the Yankees haven't scored yet.

The only reason Rob's dad hasn't called at least half a dozen times already is that he's at work and not listening to the game. He's a doctor and he thinks it might disturb his patients if he has the radio on and starts yelling when the Yankees mess up.

2:49 - After Soriano inexplicably steals third with two outs on a 3-0 count to a left-handed batter, Johnson grounds out to first to keep the Twins in front. Over on YES, Mike is as angry as he's been all game, but not about the score. Even though he was safe, Soriano stealing third in that situation was patently stupid.

2:55 - The Yankees defense hands the Twins two free runs. With LeCroy on first and one out, Hunter singles to center and the ball gets past Bernie and goes all the way to the wall, allowing LeCroy to score. Hunter's credited with a triple, but Bernie should have cut the ball off easily.

To make matters worse, Soriano takes the relay throw from Bernie and throws to third to try and get Hunter, but Soriano tosses it way over Boone's head to let Hunter score. Koskie follows with a sinking liner to left that Matsui slides to try to catch and misses, letting the ball past him and letting Koskie go to second. Koskie then helps the Yankees by trying to steal third, getting thrown out easily.

3:02 - Mussina walks Pierzynski, but strikes out Guzman to end the inning without further damage. Mussina's thrown 99 pitches through six innings.

Rob's starting to swear.

3:06 - Jeter singles to lead off the inning.

Rob: "Come on, Giambi. Do something, fucker. If he hits into a double play, I'm turning the TV off." (the apple doesn't fall far from the tree in some respects).

Giambi does ground out, but it's too soft to turn two.

3:12 - After Posada strikes out, Bernie grounds out and the Yankees still trail 3-0. Over on YES, Mad Dog says the game is over.

Mike: "Wait a minute. Can we play the final three innings? This game is not over yet."

Mad Dog cackles like a crazy man. He's enjoying the Yankees losing as much as I normally would be.

3:20 - Mussina finishes a 1-2-3 inning. This game has been like a recap of his season. He hasn't had his best stuff all the time in the game, but his numbers would look a lot better if he had a decent defense behind him.

3:30 - After Romero walks Matsui, LaTroy Hawkins comes in and give up a single to Boone. First and second, nobody out, Ruben Sierra's pinch-hitting and Rob's starting to pace.

3:33 - Sierra grounds right back to the mound, but Hawkins takes his time and can't turn two.

3:41 - It's at-bats like this that make postseason baseball great. With runners on the corners and two outs, Nick Johnson fouls off four straight two-strike pitches before Hawkins finally strikes him out on the ninth pitch of the at-bat. The Twins lead 3-0 going to the eighth inning and it looks like Jeff Nelson is coming in.

Rob is not happy.

3:45 - Rob's assessment of Nelson after he throws three straight balls to LeCroy to start the eighth: "Fucking hate him." Just so you know, Rob had been complaining about how much the Yankees need Nelson back ever since they let him go.

Nelson walks LeCroy and Joe Torre goes straight to Felix Heredia.

3:58 - The Yankees finally get a couple breaks. After Heredia failed to turn a double play on a Jacque Jones grounder back to the mound, he intentionally walks Hunter. He the gets ahead of Koskie 0-2, but Koskie hangs tough and singles into right field. LeCroy's lack of speed, however, prevents him from scoring (first break). With the bases loaded and one out, Heredia hits Pierzynski, but the umpire rules that he swung (second break, although it looks like he did swing). Finally, Pierzynski grounds into the 1-2-3 double play (third break).

So, with six outs left, the Yankees need three runs to tie the game.

4:05 - Hawkins gets Jeter to ground out and then strikes out Giambi and Posada. Three outs left for New York.

4:10 - Stewart strikes out, but reaches first on a wild pitch. Pretty typical of the Yankees today. Normally, I'd be reveling in this performance by the New Yorkers, but I can see my ticket to game two of the ALCS slipping away. The Yankees turn a double play and now they need a big comeback against Eddie Guardado in the ninth.

4:15 - Bernie leads off the ninth with a single to give the Yankees some life.

Rob: "I'm going to be sick."

Matsui crushes a ball to left and Stewart makes a sensational catch to save a double and probably a run.

4:17 - Boone smokes the ball into left. Second and third with one out and Guardado has not looked good at all. He's lucky the shutout's still in tact.

4:19 - Sierra swings at a pitch up around his eyes and pops out to right field. If Sierra was in Rob's house right now, I think there's a good chance Rob would do something that might land him in jail. He didn't like Sierra to begin with, and today's game isn't helping.

4:22 - Soriano hits a high chopper up the middle and beats it out for an infield single as the Yankees finally get on the board. It's 3-1 Twins with runners on the corners and two outs.

Rob can barely watch.

4:25 - Nick Johnson grounds out to third and the Yankees lose game one of the ALDS.

This is a disappointing feeling for me. The Yankees have just lost a playoff game, which normally makes me very happy. Now, however, I'm just two more Yankee losses away from not being able to see a playoff game in person when I've already gotten excited about my opportunity to go to a playoff game for the first time in my life.

After the end of this game, I was genuinely upset that the Yankees had lost. I had approximately the same feeling that I have when the Red Sox lose a regular season game that isn't more important than normal. It didn't ruin my night, but it annoyed me and now I'm somewhat anxious for Thursday to roll around so that the Yankees have a chance to even the series.

What a start

Two excellent games to start the 2003 playoffs. I hope most of you were able to watch at least some of the action. I'll have a running diary of my first day rooting for the Yankees later tonight and I'll give my thoughts on the other two games at some point either tonight or tomorrow.

Enjoy the primetime game on Fox everybody. If it's anywhere near as good as the first two games, it should be fun.

Giants vs. Marlins

My fourth and final playoff preview details what seems to be the least interesting series in the playoffs. The Marlins seem to be getting the smallest chance of winning of all the eight teams and all the games in this series are scheduled to not be in prime time.

Really, these teams are very similar, but very different. Let me explain. The Giants rank sixth in the NL with 4.69 runs scored per game while the Marlins rank eighth in the NL with 4.64 runs scored per game. The Giants rank second in the NL with 3.96 runs allowed per game, while the Marlins rank sixth in the NL with 4.27 runs allowed per game. As you can see, the Giants only have slight advantages in both preventing and scoring runs. However, things get even closer if you only look at what the Marlins have done since Jeff Torborg was fired after Florida started the season 16-22. In their 124 games under Jack McKeon, the Marlins have scored 4.74 runs per game and allowed just 4.08 runs per game.

And with that in mind, let's take a look at the starting lineups.

C - Benito Santiago continues to defy old age, hitting .279/.329/.424 (.753) with 21 doubles, 11 home runs, 29 walks and 69 strikeouts in 108 games. His .265 EqA, 52.5 EqR and 18.4 RARP make him about the sixth-best catcher in the NL.

The Marlins went out and signed Ivan Rodriguez because they thought he could bounce back from three injury-plagued seasons to help them contend this year. Turns out they were right, as he hit .297/.369/.474 (.843) with 36 doubles, 16 homers, 55 walks, 92 strikeouts and 10 steals in 16 attempts (62.5-percent success rate) in 144 games. His .293 EqA, 84.8 EqR and 41.6 RARP make him the second-best catcher in the NL.

Rodriguez's offense will be tempered slightly by the fact that he hits much better this year against lefties and the Giants only have one left-handed starter, but the Marlins still have a significant advantage here.

1B - The Giants will likely platoon here, as J.T. Snow is hitting .284/.387/.450 (.837) in 282 at-bats against right-handers and Andres Galarraga is hitting .309/.369/.574 (.943) in 94 at-bats against left-handers. Between the two of them, they would probably rank sixth or seventh among NL first basemen.

Derrek Lee is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball as he hit .271/.380/.509 (.889) with 31 doubles, 31 homers, 88 walks, 131 strikeouts and 21 steals in 29 attempts (72.4-percent success rate) in 154 games. His .307 EqA, 104.3 EqR and 42.1 RARP make him the fourth-best offensive first baseman in the NL.

Like Rodriguez, Lee is a much better hitter against lefties than against righties, but even against righties he's just as good as whoever the Giants will have here. Overall, this is another significant advantage for the Marlins.

2B - Ray Durham has been hurt a lot of the season, but he has still been pretty good on offense this season. He hit .284/.364/.439 (.802) with 29 doubles, five triples, eight homers, 49 walks, 81 strikeouts and seven steals in 14 attempts (50-percent success rate) in 109 games. His .284 EqA, 64.3 EqR and 26.3 RARP put him about seventh among NL second basemen.

Luis Castillo has quietly been a key to Florida's offense at the top of the lineup, hitting .314/.381/.397 (.778) with 19 doubles, six triples, six homers, 63 walks, 60 strikeouts and 21 steals in 40 attempts (52.5-percent success rate) in 152 games. His base stealing abilities have mysteriously disappeared, but his .275 EqA, 84.9 EqR and 31.4 RARP make him about the sixth-best NL second baseman.

Both players hit much better against lefties, which favors Durham because the Marlins have to lefties in the rotation and the Giants only have one. Overall, though, I think this position is pretty even.

3B - This position is really one of the keys to the series. Mike Lowell should slide right back into the starting lineup and it will be huge for the Marlins if he could pick up right where he left off when he got hurt. For the season, Lowell hit .277/.351/.531 (.882) with 26 doubles, 32 homers, 56 walks and 77 strikeouts in 129 games. His .299 EqA, 87.0 EqR and 41.7 RARP make him the second-best offensive third baseman in the NL despite missing 33 games.

It sound like Edgardo Alfonzo will be batting fifth, which means the task of protecting Barry Bonds will fall to him. Alfonzo hit .258/.333/.385 (.718) this season, but he got better as the season went on. After the All-Star break, he hit .294/.368/.459 (.827) in 194 at-bats with a .977 OPS in September. If he can keep that up in the playoffs, then he should be able to make the Marlins pay if they walk Bonds too often.

Overall, I'll say this position is even because you don't know how well Lowell will come back and who knows which Alfonzo will show up in the playoffs.

SS - This position is pretty even because San Francisco's shortstop had a worse season than people expected and Florida's shortstop had a better season than people expected. Rich Aurilia hit .277/.325/.410 (735) with 26 doubles, 13 homers, 36 walks and 81 strikeouts in 128 games.

Alex Gonzalez hit .255/.313/.438 (.751) with 33 doubles, six triples, 17 home runs, 33 walks and 105 strikeouts in 149 games.

Both players had a .260 EqA, which makes them about the fifth-best shortstops in the NL offensively. Gonzalez is probably a better fielding shortstop, however, so I'll give the Marlins a slight edge here.

LF - You know the story here. Bonds is the best offensive player on a per game basis in the majors, and maybe in baseball history right now. This year, he hit .339/.528/.747 (1.275) with 21 doubles, 45 homers, 148 walks, 57 strikeoust and seven steals in seven attempts (100-percent success rate) in 129 games. His .420 EqA, 146.7 EqR and 106.5 RARP are simply ridiculous.

The big question, of course, is whether or not the Marlins will pitch to Bonds. I think you have to pitch to Bonds unless it's a situation where you simply can't let him beat you -- like late in a close game with a runner or two on base. As great a hitter as he is, he still makes outs if you pitch to him. If you simply put him on base every time, you are doing the Giants a favor. You probably know if you read this blog that OBP is much more important than SLG. I've seen a lot of numbers, but Aaron Gleeman thinks the best formula to use is (OBP*1.7)+SLG. Let's see how Bonds looks if you pitch to him versus if you just put him on every single time.

Using his regular season stats, his adjusted OPS would be 1.645 ((1.7*.528)+.747). If you walk him every time, his adjusted OPS would be 1.700 ((1.7*1.000)+0). Plus, he would be making an out 47.2-percent of the time while putting up the first of those ridiculous numbers while he would not use up a single one of his team's outs to put up the second ridiculous number. Bottom line is you have to pitch to him when you can.

It doesn't really matter who the Marlins put out in left field, the Giants have a tremendous advantage whether it's Jeff Conine or Miguel Cabrera opposite him.

CF - Both center fielders have been somewhat of a nice surprise for their teams. Marquis Grissom hit .300/.322/.468 (.790) with 33 doubles, 20 homers, 20 walks, 82 strikeouts and 11 steals in 14 attempts (78.6-percent success rate) in 149 games. His .276 EqA, 82.7 EqR and 26.2 RARP make him about the ninth-best offensive center fielder in the NL.

In his first season out of Coors field, Juan Pierre hit .305/.361/.373 (.734) with 28 doubles, seven triples, one home run, 55 walks, 34 strikeouts and 64 steals in 84 attempts (76.2-percent success rate) in 161 games. His .272 EqA, 93.8 EqR and 27.7 RARP make him about the seventh-best offensive center fielder in the NL.

Overall, this position is probably pretty even, although the Giants will have a big edge in the games where the Marlins start a lefty because Grissom hits lefties much better than he hits righties.

RF - This is a matchup of two continuously overrated players. Jose Cruz hit .250/.366/.414 (.780) with 26 doubles, 20 homers, 102 walks, 121 strikeouts and five steals in 13 attempts (38.5-percent success rate) in 157 games. His .279 EqA, 84.7 EqR and 23.0 RARP make him the 10th or 11th-best offensive right fielder in the NL.

Juan Encarnacion hit .270/.314/.447 (.760) with 37 doubles, six triples, 19 home runs, 37 walks, 82 strikeouts and 19 steals in 27 attempts (66.7-percent success rate) in 155 games. His .264 EqA, 80.4 EqR abd 13.2 RARP make him about the worst regular right fielder in the NL.

Overall, the Giants have the advantage here. The Marlins probably have a slight advantage at this position when both teams have a right-hander on the mound, as Encarnacion is slightly better against righties and Cruz is much better against lefties.

Overall, I'd say the Marlins have a better starting lineup. The Giants obviously win left field by a lot, and they probably win right field by a little, but there's not another position where I'd say they definitely have the edge, or even another position where I could say they're definitely even with the Marlins.

The Giants probably have a deeper bench, but both teams have a good pinch-hitter. For the Giants, it's whichever of Snow and Galarraga doesn't start. For the Marlins, it's whichever of Cabrera or Conine doesn't start.

I hate to do this, because I'd like to go into as much depth for this series as I have for the other series, but it's late and I need to get some sleep, so I'm just going to summarize the pitching.

I think the Giants have the advantage in game one with Jason Schmidt against Josh Beckett.

I think game two is prett even with Sidney Ponson going against Brad Penny and I think the Marlins have the advantage in game three with Mark Redman against Kirk Rueter, who amazingly has fewer strikeouts (41) than walks (47) this year.

Game four will probably come down to which rookie -- Jerome Williams or Dontrelle Willis -- can best keep his nerves under control in his first postseason start. I think pitching at home will help Willis in that regard, so I'll give the Marlins the edge here.

In game five, the Giants have the edge once again with Schmidt facing Beckett.

The Giants have a definite edge in the bullpen, although the Marlins do have two or three very dependable relievers, which is sometimes all you need in a playoff series.

For my prediction, I'll go with the Giants in five games. I thought long and hard about picking the Marlins because I think this series is a lot closer than most people seem to think, but in the end I think Schmidt and Bonds will be able to make the difference for the Giants.

Thanks for reading, and sorry this preview was a bit shorter than the others. If you haven't read my other three previews yet, feel free to take a look at them before the playoffs get underway today. Here are the links:

Yankees vs. Twins

A's vs. Red Sox

Braves vs. Cubs

Enjoy the playoffs, and may your favorite team do well (unless your favorite team is the A's...).