Odds and ends

Well, the World Series has been more exciting than I think anybody expected it to be. I'm sure, for ratings purposes, MLB and FOX would rather have a Red Sox-Cubs World Series, but considering which two teams they ended up with, they have to be pleased with how things are going. The Marlins have a 3-2 lead going back to New York and four of the five games have been very close. With the Yankees facing elimination, there will probably be a good number of viewers for game six since more people like to watch if there's a chance the Yankees will lose.

Now, with all that said, I just don't care about it that much. I've watched at least part of all five games and they've just seemed like regular season games to me. I guess the ALCS sapped all my energy and I can't bring myself to care about a game, or series of games, that I don't want either team to win. My lack of interest is the main reason I haven't written anything this week, but I don't like going this long without writing so I decided to poke around ESPN.com and see what I could find.

Fortunately, I found a few things that interested me enough that I wanted to write at least a little bit about them.

The first of those things is that Grady Little, apparently, isn't sure if he wants to manage the Red Sox any more. Well, Grady and I finally agree on something. I don't want him to manage the Red Sox any more and he doesn't want him to manage the Red Sox any more.

There were a couple things, in particular, about this that caught my eye. First, this quote made me shake my head:

"Right now I am disappointed that evidently some people are judging me on the results of one decision I made -- not the decision, but the results of the decision."

That's what Grady seems to think. As has been the case several times this year, he is dead wrong. I mentioned this in the post I made the day after game seven, but nobody was judging Little on the results of his decision because nobody was second-guessing his decision. Every single person I know who is not a Yankees fan was yelling at their TV set for Grady Little to take Pedro Martinez out of the game at some point before he actually did it.

The other thing that interests me about the story is that it says Little said he would do the same thing again if he were back in the same situation. This is perhaps the most infuriating thing about Little -- he doesn't learn from his mistakes at all.

All season long, he was missing good hitters at crucial junctures in games because he had pinch-run for them earlier in the game. Then, in the biggest game of the season, he pinch ran for two of his best hitters with the game tied, knowing that those spots in the order could very well come up again.

All season long, he got burned by leaving his starting pitcher in the game an inning or a batter too long and watching them give up extra runs that could have been prevented. Then, in the biggest game of the season, he leaves his starting pitcher in even though he is getting hit very hard and his bullpen has been absolutely lights out in the post-season.

Luckily, it sounds like I won't have to worry about Little too much longer, because there is another report on ESPN.com saying that the Red Sox and Little may part ways as soon as Monday. At least this report doesn't, as others have, mention the Red Sox firing Little, which they can't do because he isn't under contract at the moment. The Red Sox have an option on Little for next season, and it sonuds like they won't exercise it.

The other baseball-related story that caught my eye is that the Hank Aaron Awards have been announced. There are basically six major individual awards that people care about in baseball -- the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in each league.

The Baseball Writers Association votes on each of those awards, and generally gives at least a third of them to the wrong people. The Hank Aaron Award was created to honor the best offensive player in each league, and is not voted on by the BBWAA. However, that doesn't mean the awards are going to the correct players.

The NL winner this year was Albert Pujols, which some people may have a problem with but I do not. My problem is with the AL winner -- Alex Rodriguez.

Now, some of you may be thinking, how can I be upset that Rodriguez won the Hank Aaron Award when I've said several times that he should win the more prestigious MVP Award? Well, it's simple. There are three reasons that I, and most stat-oriented people like me, think Rodriguez should be the MVP this year (and last year).

First, he's one of the best offensive players in the league. Second, he plays a defensive position that is not generall home to great offensive players. Third, he plays that defensive position very well.

The MVP Award does not say that it should go to the best offensive player in the league (just as it does not say that it should go to a player on a winning team or a player whose team makes the playoffs). The Hank Aaron Award specifically says that it is for the best offensive player in each league and Rodriguez is clearly not the best offensive player in the AL this season.

Rodriguez hit .298/.396/.900 (.995) this season, which is excellent (beyond excellent actually, but you know that) for a shortstop. However, Carlos Delgado hit .302/.426/.593 (1.019) and Manny Ramirez hit .325/.427/.587 (1.014). Both of them were better offensive players than Rodriguez this season.

Maybe you want to discount Ramirez a little because he missed eight games and Rodriguez only missed one. That's fine, but Delgado also only missed one game, so he's still better than Rodriguez.

Maybe you don't believe the statistics I used. Maybe you think Rodriguez has an edge somewhere even though he plays half his games in a great hitter's park. Well, according to Baseball Prospectus, Rodriguez had a .326 EqA, 130.5 EqR and 76.1 RAR, all of which ranked third in the AL this season. Want to guess who the two players ahead of him in each category were?

Ramirez had a .341 EqA, 130.9 EqR and 82.0 RAR and Delgado had a .338 EqA, 131.8 EqR and 81.3 RAR.

Basically, nobody can touch Rodriguez when you factor in his offense and the position he plays, but the Hank Aaron Award isn't supposed to do that. It's simply supposed to go to the best offensive player in each league. And Ramirez and Delgado were the two best offensive players in the AL this season, with Rodriguez a tick behind them.

Also, there were some non-baseball items that caught my eye. As I mentioned earlier this week, I have a fantasy basketball draft this weekend. The biggest question I have is where Kobe Bryant should be drafted. Last year, he was arguably the best fantasy player in the NBA. Even when you factor in his position, which is the easiest fantasy position to fill, he was still definitely in the top five.

This year is a lot more difficult. The first problem is that you don't know how many games he will miss because of his legal issues. The second problem is that you don't know what his state of mind will be. The third problem is that you don't know what his conditioning will be like early in the season (not only did he have legal distractions this summer, he also had off-season surgery).

My thought at the moment is that I definitely won't pick Bryant if I have one of the top four picks and I probably wouldn't take him with one of the next three picks. If I had the eighth pick or later and he was still available, however, I might take the rapist for 200. (That's therapist, Mr Connery!).

Sorry, I don't mean to make light of Kobe's situation or the seriousnesss of the charges filed against him, I just couldn't resist. Anyway, the reason I'm mentioning Kobe is because ESPN.com had a story about the new judge for Kobe's case. Since I'm looking for any news that I can find about Kobe's trial and what it might mean for his performance on the court this season, I gave it a read.

The question I have now is this -- is it a bad thing that, as I read the story, the voice in my head was that of the judge from My Cousin Vinny.




Is this the sort of thing I shouldn't mention? I don't know. (Also, don't think that I'm a bad person because my only reason for thinking about the trial is to see how it affects my fantasy team. I'm not the sort of person to follow a circus like that closely to see whether somebody's life will be torn to pieces. By all accounts, Kobe's a good person and I sincerely hope he didn't do what he's been accused of doing. If he did do it, however, then he should go to jail. But I don't have any interest in watching the drama as it unfolds).

Finally, you know how people make fun of all the riots that occur before, during and after soccer games in various parts of the world? Do you think people in other parts of the world make fun of us in the same way for college football?.

Everybody knows about the utterly stupid tradition of rushing the field and tearing down the goal posts after a big win, but West Virginia has taken things to a whole new level of stupidity.

I mean, seriously. Setting fires? Throwing things at the police? Burning perfectly good mattresses, recliners and couches when you're in college and probably don't have much money? What is the world coming to?

Oh, and here's my fantasy column for this week:

Fantasy football: QB injuries spell danger or salvation

Time off

So, I didn't write anything yesterday and I'm not really writing anything today, but I hope all of you will understand. I have a fantasy basketball draft on Saturday that I have to prepare for and between that and work, I don't really have a lot of free time to write. Also, since I'm not really interested in this World Series, I don't really have much inlination to write.

I'll try to get back into the swing of things tomorrow (maybe tonight's game will move me or something), but I can't make any promises. Regardless of what I do the rest of this week, I'll give my baseball awards out starting Monday.

The World Series

I didn't do a World Series preview for two reasons. The first is that I didn't really have time since I went to the Syracuse football game against Boston Colloege today. The second is that, as far as World Series go, this one doesn't excite me too much because I don't really want either team to win and because I'm pretty drained from the rest of the post-season.

However, if you want to do some reading to prepare for the World Series, there are some excellent previews available. Aaron Gleeman likes the Yankees to win in six. Rich Lederer thinks the Yankees will win in seven. I agree with Aaron on Yankees in six, but I wouldn't really be surprised if the Marlins win this series. After all, they've never lost a playoff series before.

Enjoy the World Series and if the New England Patriots happen to be reading, you can help me recover from Boston's loss to the Yankees by beating the Dolphins tomorrow.

My first broken heart

Today, I am finally, truly a member of that great and sorrowful entity called Red Sox Nation. Sure, even before today I had rooted with all my heart for the Boston Red Sox. I had hung on every pitch, lived and died a little with every win and loss. But never, before last night, had the Red Sox made me cry.

Now they have, and not in the same way the New England Patriots made me cry two years ago. But there is some comfort to be had, thinking back on those two moments of unmanliness, those two times when the weight of all that had happened to lead up to that point caused me to break down and shed tears.

Earlier this week, Alex Belth of Bronx Banter wrote a post asking if we are too invested in our sports teams. It was an excellent post and there was some great discussion and I said that, unlike some of the other people who posted there, I had not yet reached the point where the stresses of losing outwighed the joys of winning. Last night confirmed that for me.

As I walked out of the news room on the fourth floor of the building I work in, the tears came. It was not open sobbing, but there were tears to be sure. By the time the elevator had taken me to the ground floor, the tears were gone. I was still devastated and upset, but there would be no more waterworks. In contrast, when the Patriots won the Super Bowl two years ago, I blubbered joyously for about an hour.

Where does one start when looking back on yesterday's game, which may go down in history as the best non-World Series game ever played? You start, of course, at the beginning.

And at the beginning of yesterday's game, many Red Sox fans were confident, for various reasons. Some Red Sox fans are just the confident type, some had faith in Pedro Martinez, some were sure Roger Clemens would choke and some just felt it was finally our turn to win.

And then there were those who thought, after the Cubs had a three-run lead needing just five outs to reach the World Series and couldn't close the deal, that we were safe. After all, there's no way it can happen to both sets of beleaguered fans in the same season, is there?

Sure there is. With Mia Hamm in attendance at Yankee Stadium, the Curse of the Bambino played a game of "Anything you can do I can do better" with the Curse of the Billy Goat.

Now, I don't really believe in curses. The Red Sox and Cubs both lost for the same three reasons: (1) they were both playing against very good baseball teams, (2) they both made some mistakes that their opponents were able to capitalize on and (3) they both have managers who are not good in-game tacticians.

Still, it's a lot more fun to talk about curses. There's something magical and mysterious about the idea of cursed baseball teams. The same thing that makes us want to believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy when we're younger makes us want to believe that something like a curse could exist. And even if you don't believe in curses, you're probably superstitious. You'll wear the same shirt or sit in the same spot if your team is winning and change clothes or seats if they're losing.

So, yesterday's game began, as all games begin, with a single pitch -- a strike from Clemens to Johnny Damon. It felt like much more than just one pitch, however. It was the first brick removed from a dam that was holding back a flood of emotions. It was the first step on a path that would lead to a defining moment for a generation or three of baseball fans. It would either be the first taste of heartbreak for younger Red Sox fans like myself, or it would be the most glorious triumph over the enemy that older fans had ever witnessed. It was the first pitch in a game that could mean the end of the losing and the rebirth of the idea of being a Red Sox fan in a new century.

The game began, as all good heartbreaks do, with hope. After Clemens and Martinez matched scoreless first innings, the Red Sox took the lead in the top of the second. Kevin Millar hit a one-out single to set up Clemens' arch-nemesis, Trot Nixon. Nixon rose to the occassion with a two-run homer to deep right field. The Red Sox then got a gift run because Joe Torre doesn't understand small sample sizes.

As most of you know, New York's third baseman in yesterday's game was Enrique Wilson because he went 7-for-8 against Martinez in the regular season. Of course, Wilson was 3-for-12 against Martinez prior to this season and he went 0-for-3 against Martinez in game three of the ALCS. At any rate, Torre believed Wilson has some sort of special ability to hit against Martinez, so Wilson was in the game when, after Jason Varitek doubled, Damon hit a grounder to third that Wilson threw away, allowing Varitek to score Boston's third run of the inning. New York's normal third baseman, Aaron Boone, probably would have made the play easily, but he had a larger purpose last night.

Martinez pitched two more scoreless innings and Clemens had an easy third when the game reached a crucial juncture, with Clemens finding more trouble in the top of the fourth inning. His first pitch to Millar in that frame sailed into the left-field stands to give the Red Sox a 4-0 lead, and then he walked Nixon. Bill Mueller followed with a single to put runners on the corners with nobody out and that was the end of Clemens' night and maybe, as far as anybody knew then, his career.

Mike Mussina, New York's favorite goat for much of the series, came on in relief and did a spectacular job. He struck out Varitek and got Damon to ground into a double play to end the inning without any more runs scoring. I said at the time that Mussina's work there could end up being critical to the outcome of the game. Unfortunately, I was right.

Still, at that point, I wasn't worried too much, since Martinez was cruising along with his fourth scoreless inning and he had thrown just 55 pitches to get through those four innings. Mussina put himself in a tough spot in the fifth with back-to-back one out singles from Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez. He was able to get the next two batters, however, to keep the Yankees within four runs.

In the bottom of the inning, Martinez hit his first bump in the road, surrendering a solo home run to Jason Giambi on the first pitch of the inning. Not a problem at all, though, as Martinez recovered to retire the next eight batters in a row.

Meanwhile, Mussina pitched a scoreless sixth and Felix Heredia and Jeff Nelson combined to pitch a scoreless seventh. So, the Red Sox still led 4-1 heading to the bottom of the seventh and Martinez retired the first two hitters, who were No. 7 and No. 8 in his streak of consecutive outs. Then, Martinez ran into trouble.

Giambi tagged him for another home run and Wilson reached on an "infield single." What really happened is that Wilson hit a tailing grounder to the right side that Millar fielded while running into foul territory. Rather than flip the ball to Martinez, who was in perfect position to step on first for the final out of the inning, Millar decided to dive for the bag with his glove. He ended up falling on his face a couple feet from first and the inning continued.

Karim Garcia knocked the next pitch into right field for a single, but Martinez saved Millar from being a goat by striking out Alfonso Soriano to end the inning.

Nelson came back out to start the top of the eighth inning for the Yankees, and I wondered why Torre wasn't turning to Mariano Rivera. If the Yankees gave up any more runs, I thought, it would be tough for them to come back and if they didn't come back, Rivera would have all offseason to rest. You might as well make sure you use your best pitcher for two innings in the biggest game of the season, right?

Well, Torre stuck with Nelson and Nelson got Ramirez for the first out of the inning. Then, Torre summoned David Wells to face David Ortiz. I turned to my co-workers and told them that Ortiz could take Wells deep because Wells doesn't have much of a split (he allowed a .778 OPS to lefty hitters and a .737 OPS to righties this year) and that's exactly what Ortiz did.

Wells retired the next two batters, but the Yankees were now facing a deficit of three runs instead of two runs. And then everything fell apart for Boston.

One of my co-workers asked me how much longer Martinez would be in the game. I said that he'd be in there until he gave up a baserunner and then he'd be out, or at least I hoped that would be the case. Martinez retired Nick Johnson to put the Red Sox five outs away from the World Series with a three-run lead (sound familiar?) before Derek Jeter doubled just past Nixon's outstretched glove.

At that point, I would have removed Martinez, but Grady Little wanted to stick with his ace as long as possible. Bernie Williams singled to center field to knock in Jeter and bring up Hideki Matsui as the tying run with the left-handed specialist Alan Embree warm in the bullpen. At that point, Little ran out to the mound.

I shouted at the TV, "make the move now, don't talk to him," but Little waited to make the move and went to talk to Martinez. He then patted Martinez on the butt and returned to the dugout without removing his obviously tired star hurler.

Matsui hit an 0-2 pitch down the right-field line for a ground-rule double that put the tying runs in scoring position. Little remained in the dugout, staring straight ahead, as Martinez prepared to face Jorge Posada. When Martinez's first pitch to Posada was inside, I turned my back to the TV, heaved my arm in the opposite direction and got a big laugh from the sports department:

"Toss him, ump! He's throwing at the hitters again! Throw him out of the game!"

It didn't work. Martinez remained in the game and Posada dumped his 2-2 pitch into No-Man's Land out in shallow center field to tie the game. Somehow, Posada even ended up on second.

I then asked, and still want to know the answer to, the following question, "How can the happiness of an entire region be entrusted to a complete idiot?"

There was no second-guessing of Little's move. It was obvious to every single person watching the game except for, it appears, Little that Martinez was out of gas. Even my girlfriend, who was watching the game despite the fact that she doesn't really like baseball in general or the Red Sox in particular, told me she was screaming at the TV for Little to take Martinez out.

Finally, with the damage already done, Little turned the game over to Embree, who retired Giambi on a fly ball to center field. Then, Little summoned Mike Timlin to face Wilson. Torre pinch-hit for Wilson with Ruben Sierra. Little had Timlin intentionally walk Sierra and Torre pinch-ran for Sierra with Boone, who would need to come in to play third base in the ninth anyway.

I don't really remember at that point whether or not I thought the Red Sox would allow the Yankees to take the lead right there. I was so disappointed that Little had left Martinez in to blow the lead that I didn't even know what to think or feel. That the Red Sox did not give the Yankees the lead there (after Garcia walked, Soriano hit a grounder off the mound that bounced to Todd Walker, who flipped to Garciaparra to end the inning) cleared my mind a little. The Red Sox bullpen had been excellent in the post-season and I thought they still had as good a shot at winning as the Yankees did.

Of course, Torre's move to not use Rivera in the eighth paid off because Rivera was able to hold the Red Sox scoreless in the ninth, 10th and 11th innings. He allowed a runner to reach scoring position twice, but both times he slammed the door without a hint of trouble.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox bullpen held the Yankees scoreless for two innings and, as the game went into the bottom of the 11th inning, I started feeling good again. Rivera was done for the night and the top of Boston's lineup was due up in the top of the 12th inning. If Tim Wakefield could just hold the Yankees scoreless for one more inning, the Red Sox would have a chance to take the lead and then turn things over to closer Scott Williamson.

Before I even really realized the inning was starting, Wakefield had delivered his first pitch to Boone and Boone had smacked it high and deep to left field. It stayed fair by plenty, it went into the stands by plenty and the Yankees won again.

Despite the fact that the Red Sox lost when they probably should have won, it was a great game. It was a game that may very well go down in history as the best non-World Series baseball game ever. I mean, come on, an extra-inning, walk-off home run by a player who wasn't even in the game when it started four hours earlier in the 26th meeting of the season between the most storied rivals in sports for a spot in the World Series? Who would ever believe it if it didn't really happen?

And, despite the fact that the story remained much the same, this was a great season to be a Red Sox fan. This season was a wildly exciting rollercoaster ride from the first game to the last. So what if last night it felt like the ride operator pulled the stop lever before we had reached the thrilling finale to the ride, leaving us momentarily disoriented as we stumbled off the ride and tried to refrain from being ill. When you choose to get on the big, exciting rides, you sometimes get sick. If you know what's good for you, though, you always come back.

And I'll be back next year, rooting just as hard for the Red Sox as ever. And the Red Sox will be back too. I guarantee that there will not be another prolonged stretch where the Red Sox don't make the playoffs or don't win in the playoffs.

How am I so sure? Hell, you might say, the fans in 1946 were probably sure that Ted Williams would get back to the World Series at least once and the fans in 1986 were probably sure that Clemens would lead Boston back to the World Series at least once. How can I be so sure, especially when the Red Sox didn't even reach the World Series this time?

Well, my faith is not in any of the players. Pedro Martinez? Nomar Gariciaparra? Manny Ramirez? You can take them all. Leave Theo Epstein in Boston, and I'll feel good about our chances. The boy wonder brought us to the brink of the World Series in his first season at the helm. Who knows what he can do from here on out? I know I'm excited to find out.

For you non-Red Sox fans, enjoy the World Series. I'll be following it a bit, but I won't be watching every pitch like I have been. After all, now that the Red Sox have been eliminated, it's time for me to get reacquainted with my true love, if she's still talking to me.

Other stuff

Here's my fantasy football column for this week:

Fantasy football: Teams needing running backs find gold

Also, I wanted to let everybody know that I plan on posting every day even during the offseason. I don't know if I'll actually be able to, but that's my plan at the moment. And after the World Series is over, I'll have all sorts of posts looking back on the season.

It has come to this

It had to come to this

The first-ever World Series was played 100 years ago. That was also the first time there was a team from Boston and a team from New York in the American League. I don't think there was much of a rivalry back then, though. The Red Sox won that World Series and then won four more over the next 15 years, while the Yankees did not reach the post-season at all.

From 1903 to 1918, the Red Sox won 1,326 games and lost 1,070 for a .553 winning percentage. They finished first or second in the AL eight times and only finished out of the first division four times. During that time, the Yankees won 1,141 games and lost 1,239 for a .479 winning percentage. They only fininshed in the first division six times and only finished ahead of the Red Sox in the standings three times.

In 1919, the Yankees went 80-59 to finish third while the Red Sox slumped to 66-71 and a sixth-place finish. By the time the 1920 season rolled around, Babe Ruth had been sold to the Yankees and only six of the 32 men who had been on the 1918 championship team remained on the Red Sox roster.

The Yankees finished third again in 1920 before taking the pennant for the first time in 1921. When New York won its first World Series in 1923, six of players on the team (Ruth, Everett Scott, Carl Mays, Joe Bush, Sam Jones and Wally Schang) were members of Boston's last championship team and 11 of the player's on New York's roster (including Waite Hoyt and Herb Pennock) had played in Boston before moving to the Yankees.

Since 1918, the Yankees have won 38 American League pennants and 26 World Series championships. In that time, the Red Sox have won just four American League pennants and no World Series championships. After finishing first in their division for just the seventh time since 1918 in 1995, the Red Sox slumped to third and fourth in 1996 and 1997 and have now finished second to the Yankees six years in a row.

Everybody knows the history. In 1948, the Red Sox needed to beat the Yankees just once in the final two games of the season win the AL pennant over the Cleveland Indians. The Yankees won both games and the Red Sox lost to the Indians in a playoff.

Thirty years after that, the Red Sox had a nine-game lead over Milwaukee when July 20, 1978 dawned. The Yankees were in fourth place, 14 games behind Boston. By the time September 7, 1978 dawned, the Yankees had pulled into second place just four games behind the Red Sox and were headed to Boston for a four-game series. New York swept the series, outscoring the Red Sox 42-9, and the two teams finished the regular season with identical 99-63 games. They met in a one-game playoff for the right to go to the ALCS. The Yankees won 5-4 thank in large part to Bucky "F***ing" Dent and went on to win the World Series.

In 1999, the Red Sox came back from a 2-0 deficit to the Cleveland Indians to win the ALDS and earn a shot at the New York Yankees in the ALCS. The first two games were close, tense affairs in the Bronx, but the Yankees got the breaks and the calls and won both games. The Red Sox won game three in Boston, but went quietly in the next two games and the Yankees went on to win another World Series.

Now, 25 years after Bucky Dent carried the Yankees past the Red Sox and into the playoffs, 55 years after Joe DiMaggio and the Yankees prevented the Red Sox from winning the AL pennant, and 85 years after Boston's last World Series championship, 100 years of the greatest rivalry in sports comes down to one game.

Pedro Martinez vs. Roger Clemens.

Boston vs. New York.

One game at Yankee Stadium with a trip to the World Series on the line.

If there's been a more important, more eagerly anticipated game in my lifetime then I must have missed it. Honestly, I can't even find the words to describe how big this game is. The Yankees are being threatened by the Red Sox like they never have been before.

If the Yankees win this game, they can continue to feel that all is right with the world. They will be in the World Series and the Red Sox will be at home, having been unable to dethrone the Yankees yet again, as though it's their lot in life to perpetually finish second to the team from the Bronx.

If the Red Sox win this game, everything will change. Bucky Dent will become irrelevant, 1948 will not matter and the Red Sox will have a chance to end all talk of some silly curse.

Strap yourselves in and hold on tight, this thing is going to be great. I can't wait.

Curses!

All post-season, we've been hearing about how the Red Sox and Cubs are cursed. The difference is that since Chicago's last World Series appearance in 1945, nothing truly horrific has happened to the Cubs. Sure, they blew a 2-0 lead over the Padres in the best-of-five 1984 NLDS and sure they blew some big leads to miss the playoffs, but they haven't had near the level of heartbreaking losses that the Red Sox have had to endure throughout the years.

Well, until yesterday that is, when the Cubs tried to catch up to the Red Sox in just one inning. If Chicago doesn't come back to win tonight's game seven, last night's loss will go down as one of the worst in the history of baseball. It can't touch Boston's game six loss to the Mets in 1986 because that was in the World Series and there are probably others that would rank higher than last night's, but without doing any research I'd have to guess that it's one of the 10 most devastating losses in baseball history.

Leading three games to two, the Chicago Cubs had their best pitcher, Mark Prior, on the mound to try and send them to the World Series. And through seven innings, it looked like he would do just that as he had allowed just three hits and two walks with no Marlins crossing the plate.

And the Cubs had given him all the runs it seemed he would need thanks to Sammy Sosa (RBI double in the first inning), Dontrelle Willis (wild pitch let Sosa score in the sixth) and Mark Grudzielanek (RBI single in the seventh).

Then, in the top of the eighth inning, the Cubs had the anti-Jeffrey Maier, Bill Buckner and Bucky Dent all happen so quickly that you could barely even believe it.

The inning started off innocently enough, as Mike Mordecai flied out to left field for the first out of the inning to bring the Cubs within five outs of the World Series.

Then, Prior gave up a double to Juan Pierre. The next batter was Luis Castillo, who worked the count full and then started fouling pitches off. On the third 3-2 pitch and the eighth pitch of the at-bat, Castillo hit a fly ball into foul territory down the left field line. Moises Alou made his way over to the wall, timed his jump and probably would have made a terrific leaping catch over the wall... except that a fan reached out and touched the ball before Alou could catch it.

Castillo had a second life, and Prior threw ball four on the very next pitch to put runners on first and second with one out for Ivan Rodriguez, who was merely hitting .351/.442/.649 (1.091) in the playoffs entering yesterday's game. Prior got ahead of him 0-2, but Pudge continued his torrid post-season play by smashing a single into left field to drive in Florida's first run of the game and extend his playoff hitting streak to 10 games.

Still, the Cubs were in the driver's seat with a two-run lead and runners on first and second with one out for rookie Miguel Cabrera. As he is wont to do, Cabrera swung at the first pitch and the result was a ground ball right at Alex Gonzalez that looked like a double play. Until Gonzalez's glove was seized by the spirit of somebody else (I know he's still alive):

"And a ground ball trickling... it is a fair ball! It gets by Buckner! Rounding third is Knight. The Mets will win the ballgame. They win! They win!"

Okay, it's obviously not the same thing. The Cubs still had the lead after Gonzalez booted the ball, but the bases were loaded with just one out and Derrek Lee.

I turned to one of my co-workers and said, "If Prior hangs one here, it's a grand slam."

I don't know if Prior hung that first pitch or not, but Lee roped it into left field for a two-run double to tie the game and put runners on second and third, still with only one out. That was the end of Prior's night. He went from being the sure MVP of the series to being the potential game six loser in a matter of minutes.

Kyle Farnsworth came in and issued an intentional walk to Mike Lowell to load the bases for Jeff Conine. Mr. Marlin came through with a sacrifice fly to give the Marlins a 4-3 lead.

After that, Farnsworth issued another intentional walk (to pinch-hitter Todd Hollandsworth) to reload the bases for Mike Mordecai. Now, in the regular season, Mordecai hit just .213/.276/.326 (.601) and he was hitless in four post-season at-bats before that one. However, like Gonzalez's glove, Mordecai's bat was possessed by a powerful force:

"Ball hit hard to left field...Yastrzemski goes back, he looks up. It's gonna be... outta here, a home run for Bucky Dent!"

Mordecai hit a bases-clearing double to give the Marlins a 7-3 lead. Florida tacked on another run and the Cubs went meekly (six up, six down) the rest of the way.

So, there will be a game seven tonight. And while I feel bad for the Cubs and their fans (especially That Fan), there's nothing better than a game seven. The matchup should be a good one as Kerry Wood takes on Mark Redman. When those two met up in game three, the Cubs won the game in 11 innings. If tonight's game is anything like that one, it'll go down as one of the best game seven's in history. And if the Cubs win, nobody will remember the Marlins scoring eight runs in the eighth inning of game six.

Now, a lot of people, including Rob Neyer, think that the fan is getting too much heat for touching that foul ball. They're saying that the Cubs still could have, and probably should have, won the game after that. I agree with that, but I'm going to make another contention that some people may disagree with.

Even if the fan hadn't touched the ball and Alou had caught it, the Cubs still could have, and very well might have, lost that game. Let's assume everything happens the way it happened after that:

After Alou catches the ball, there are two outs with Pierre on second. Rodriguez singles him home and moves to second when Cabrera reaches on Gonzalez's error. Lee follows with a double that makes it 3-2.

At that point yesterday, Farnsworth relieved Prior and walked Lowell to set up Conine's sac fly. If that had happened the same way, Conine's fly ball would have ended the inning. Let's assume that's what happens.

Now, you might say that the Marlins didn't score in the ninth, so the Cubs would have won. However, the pitcher the Marlins didn't score against in the ninth was Antonio Alfonseca. If the Cubs had had a one-run lead, the Marlins would have seen Joe Borowski. And there would have been different hitters up against Borowski than there were against Alfonseca.

Would the Marlins have scored a run or two off Borowski? I have no idea, and nobody else does either. Who knows if the rest of the eighth inning even would have unfolded the same way had Alou made the catch? My point is, you cannot say that the Cubs definitely win that game if the fan doesn't touch the ball. It's just not an absolute certainty.

Now, there was another game yesterday and I don't have an awful lot to say about it besides that the Red Sox offense just looks absolutely terrible. I know the Yankees pitchers have something to do with that, but these do not look like the same Red Sox hitters who terrorized pitchers (including those wearing pinstripes several times) during the regular season.

Both pitchers in the game pitched very well and the Red Sox might have won the game had Bill Mueller been able to make a play on a grounder to him with two on and two outs in the second inning. But he didn't, and now the Red Sox have their backs against the wall.

Andy Pettitte takes the mound for the Yankees and John Burkett will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, at least to start the game. With such a mismatch of the starting pitchers, many people have already penciled the Yankees into the World Series.

Not so fast. Baseball's a funny game and you never know exactly what's going to happen. Is it more unlikely that the Red Sox could win three in a row against the A's or that they could win two in a row against the Yankees? Actually, let me ask a different question.

Which is a bigger pitching mismatch: Andy Pettitte against John Burkett or Mark Prior against Carl Pavano? Pavano's certainly better than Burkett, but Prior is also certainly better than Pettitte.

Anyway, if you're a fan of dramatic baseball, then this should be a fun day for you. I know I'm looking forward to it.

Best of three

Well, the way we got here is a little surprising, but it shouldn't shock anybody that the ALCS between the Red Sox and the Yankees is now a best of three series. As has been the case in each of the games to this point, pitching set the tone last night.

Tim Wakefield had a tough start, walking Alfonso Soriano and allowing a single to Derek Jeter to put runners on first and second with nobody out for Jason Giambi.

That's when Wakefield got lucky. Giambi hit a bullet, but it was right at Kevin Millar, who caught it and stepped on first to double off Jeter. Bernie Williams then drew a walk before Jorge Posada struck out to end the inning.

I was listening to the top of the first in my car because I didn't get out of work until 8 p.m., and I must admit that I was very concerned that Wakefield just didn't have it last night. He was lucky to get the double-play ball and I was a little bit worried that the Yankees would keep tagging him.

I needn't have been. Wakefield didn't give up a hit in either of the next two innings (although he did hit David Dellucci leading off the third) and he worked around a leadoff single by Williams in the fourth.

In the press conference, Wakefield said that he might have let his adrenaline get the best of him in the first inning. After he got the double-play ball and got out of the inning, he said he was able to calm himself down.

Mike Mussina, meanwhile, was gunning from the start. He mowed down the first six Red Sox batters with great ease before Trot Nixon singled to lead off the third. Not wanting to make Mussina work too hard, the Red Sox sent Nixon on a 3-2 pitch to Bill Mueller, the third game in a row in which the Red Sox sent a runner on a 3-2 pitch with less than two outs. And for the third game in a row, the batter struck out and the runner was an easy target for Posada. Making it even worse is that Doug Mirabelli followed with a single that should have put two on with one out rather than one on with two out. So, Mussina retired Johnny Damon and the inning was over.

So, with some luck and/or help from the other team, each pitcher was rolling along until the bottom of the fourth inning. For the next inning and a half, the offenses went into "high octane" mode. When I say "high octane," what I mean is that they didn't get completely shut down as they had been the rest of the game.

Todd Walker led off the bottom of the fourth with his second home run in as many games off Mussina in the playoffs. It was Walker's fifth home run of the post-season, after hitting just 13 in the regular season.

I don't know if Walker will be back with the Red Sox next year (I believe they have an option on him for something like $3.5-4 million) and I don't know what this post-season ultimately has in store for the Red Sox. What I do know is that there will always be a soft spot in my heart for Walker.

The Red Sox didn't win the World Series in 1999, but I still always think fondly of Troy O'Leary because he hit two home runs in the game five win against the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS. From now on, I'll think similarly of Walker, wherever he is.

Anyway, Mussina finished the inning without further trouble as Manny Ramirez reached on an error but was erased on a double-play grounder from David Ortiz.

After that, it was New York's turn to get some offense going. Wakefield retired the first batter in the fifth without a problem, but Dellucci and Soriano followed with back-to-back singles to put runners on first and second with one out.

The next play is where one team got a break. Which team depends on who you talk to though. Jeter hit a hard grounder down the third base line and it hit the bag and bounced high in the air. Dellucci scored easily, but Jeter might have been held to first base if Nomar Garciaparra had fielded it cleanly. He didn't, and Soriano was on third and Jeter was on second by the time Ramirez retrieved the ball. That's not really the break I'm talking about though.

The break is the ball hitting the bag. Had the ball not hit the bag, it might have skipped into the left field corner, likely allowing Soriano to score the Yankees second run of the inning. However, had the ball not hit the bag, it also might have been fielded by Mueller, keeping any runs from scoring and the Yankees would have had the bases loaded with one out.

Neither of those things did happen, however, because the ball did hit the bag and the Yankees tied the game. They also had a great opportunity to take the lead, but Giambi hit a fly ball to very short center field and the Yankees decided not to send Soriano on a tag-up. In hindsight, Soriano definitely would have scored if he went because Damon's throw was awful. At the moment, you knew Damon has a bad arm, but you couldn't count on the throw being that bad. I don't know what I would have done if I were the runner or third base coach, but sitting on the couch watching, I said, "Good, that's not deep enough to score him."

Anyway, the Yankees still had a chance to score as Williams walked to load the bases, but Posada lined out to left field to end the threat.

And after that, Wakefield settled down immediately. He struck out the side in order in the sixth inning and needed just four pitches to retire the side in order in the seventh inning. Luckily for the Red Sox, he was doing that work with a one-run lead instead of in a tie game.

Mussina struck out Millar to start the bottom of the fifth, but Nixon followed with a home run to almost the exact same spot he hit his walkoff homer in game three of the ALDS. Mussina then got through the sixth inning before he ran into some more trouble.

Ortiz struck out leading off the bottom of the seventh, but Millar followed with a somewhat questionable walk. Then, Nixon hit the ball high and deep to left field. Hideki Matsui backed up very close to the wall and looked up (with his back still to the wall) as though he was about to catch it. Millar saw this and paused briefly near second base before he realized Matsui couldn't catch it. The ball hit high off the wall, Matsui fielded it quickly and held Millar to third base while Nixon went to second for a double.

I don't know if Millar would have been able to score either way, but Matsui's heads up play ensured that he wouldn't. The Yankees then decided to intentionally walk Mueller to get to Mirabelli. At that point, Jason Varitek came running in from the bullpen with his shinguards on and a huge bag draped over his shoulder.

He stepped up to the plate in place of Mirabelli and, having not taken many warmup swings (if any), hit a double-play ball to Jeter. Except that Varitek hustled down the line and, after Soriano didn't put much mustard on the relay throw, beat it out to allow Millar to score an insurance run that would prove to be very important.

That was the end of Mussina's night as Felix Heredia came in to pitch to Damon. After Damon took a ball to even the count at 2-2, Varitek was caught off first base. I don't know if he was trying to steal a run by allowing Nixon to score while the Yankees chased Varitek, but it didn't work. The Yankees ran the play beautifully, as Posada walked toward the mound and didn't throw right away. After he got rid of the ball, he retreated to the plate and, as soon as Nixon broke, Soriano sent the ball back to Posada, who immediately fired the ball to third to get Nixon trying to retreat to the bag.

Wakefield came out to start the eighth inning, but his night ended when he walked Giambi. That brought Mike Timlin into the game. I knew Timlin had been doing well this postseason, but I didn't realize just how well until FOX ran the graphic of his playoff numbers prior to last night's appearance:

IP 6.1
H 0
R 0
BB 0
K 8

That's right, Timlin had been perfect thus far in the playoffs. However, in the regular season his main problem was serving up home runs (he allowed 11 in 83.2 innings) and the first batter he faced was Williams, who hit a bomb.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, the bomb was toward the triangle in center and Damon was able to track it down for the first out. Timlin then got a groundout and a strikeout to keep his perfect post-season in order.

In the bottom of the eighth, Jeff Nelson started warming up and the Fenway faithful started chanting "We Want Nelson" a la New York's Thursday night chant of "We Want Pedro."

When Heredia hit Walker with one out, Joe Torre obliged, bringing Nelson in to face Garciaparra. After Nelson's first pitch, Grady Little tried some gamesmanship by asking the umpires to check Nelson to see if he had any illegal foreign substances with him.

At first, I thought it might have gotten inside Nelson's head as he threw over to first base three times before delivering his next pitch, but he got Garciaparra to ground into a double play to end the inning.

So, the Red Sox took a two-run lead into the top of the ninth inning and closer (there's no committe any more) Scott Williamson came in to get the save.

Williamson struck out the first batter and went to 1-2 on pinch-hitter Ruben Sierra before Sierra made things interesting with a home run over the bullpens. Williamson recovered to strike out Dellucci, which brought to the plate the Yankee that makes me feel most comfortable in a big spot.

Soriano swung at the first pitch even though it was well outside and there was no way he could hit it. The second pitch was in the same place and Soriano swung and missed again. Williamson threw the third pitch up high and Soriano took it for a ball. Having played around enough, Williamson went right back to where the first two pitches were thrown and Soriano swung and missed again to end the game.

So, the series is tied at two games apiece, and now I have a few questions.

How amazing is it that neither team got any production at all from a four-spot stretch in their lineup? New York's fifth through eighth hitters (Posada, Matsui, Nick Johnson and Aaron Boone) combined to go 0-for-15 with 10 strikeouts. Boston's third through sixth hitters (Garciaparra, Ramirez, Ortiz and Millar) combined to go 0-for-13 with a walk and six strikeouts.

Wakefield is now 2-0 in this year's ALCS. He also went 2-0 in the 1992 NLCS for Pittsburgh. He didn't win a single playoff game in between. Had any player ever won two games in one LCS, waited 10 years, and then won two games in another LCS before?

Williamson now has two saves in this ALCS for Boston. He didn't save a single game for them during the regular season. Has it ever happened before that a player's first two saves for a team come in the LCS?

Speaking of a Boston reliever, has a bullpen ever turned around so much in the playoffs before? In the regular season, Boston's relievers had a 4.83 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.73 K/9IP. In the post-season, Boston's relievers have a 1.09 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 10.58 K/9IP. The home run Williamson allowed last night was the first run allowed by the Boston bullpen since game one of the ALDS against Oakland.

Finally, is my jersey sapping all the power away from Garciaparra? I wore my authentic Nomar Garciaparra Red Sox jersey last night for the fourth time and, for the fourth time, the Red Sox won. However, since I first wore the jersey (on Sept. 5), Garciaparra has just 20 hits including in the playoffs and he's hitting .177/.256/.336 (.592). I don't mind as long as the Red Sox keep winning, but I do feel kind of bad for him.

Ok, that's all I have for today. Big game in four hours. I think whoever wins today is pretty likely to win the series. That may seem like an obvious statement considering the pitching matchups in Yankee Stadium, but it makes clear just how important today is.

Enjoy the game and go Red Sox.

Stupid errors

Well, I was going to write a post about how all of the strange things the Boston Red Sox have done in the last two or three weeks have made me somewhat ashamed of the Red Sox. And I was going to say that the rainout of yesterday's game four and getting to watch a gutsy Patriots team improve to 4-2 washed the bad taste out of my mouth.

However, halfway through my post, internet explorer crashed. I hadn't saved the post yet, so I lost the whole thing and now I don't have time to redo it all. So, I'm afraid I probably won't be able to post anything today, because I have to leave pretty soon write a story about a guy who has supposedly had three hole-in-ones on par 4's this year. I may only be working until around 5, I may be working until 11 p.m., I have no idea.

Sorry there's nothing interesting for you to read here today, I'll definitely be back tomorrow.

Big day

At 1 p.m. today, I get to watch the Patriots host the NY Giants to either improve to 4-2 this season or fall to 3-3. Later tonight, I get to watch the Red Sox host the NY Yankees in game four of the ALCS to either even the series at two games apiece or fall behind 3-1.

If both teams win, I'll be walking on air tonight. If both teams lose, I'll be absolutely devastated. Should be a another nice, gutwrenching day.

Tapped out

I know I promised to write about my trip to Yankee Stadium for Thursday's playoff game, but I got caught up with some other things to do before today's game and now I'm just drained. Between not getting much sleep lately, very long car rides on consecutive days and back-to-back Red Sox losses, I'm about out of energy.

So, I'll just say that I had a good time on the trip. Yankee Stadium is something to behold during the playoffs. As intense as the two regular season New York-Boston games I went to at Yankee Stadium this year were, Thursday's game was an all together different animal.

I met some very nice Yankees fans and, of course, I met some absolute jerks. I wore my Boston hat and my Red Sox road jersey, but I didn't really get taunted until after the Yankees had won the game.

Now, I'm just going to try to enjoy the rest of the sporting day -- game four of the NLCS and a few interesting college football games -- and hope that John Burkett can pull off something magical and/or the Red Sox hitters can pound David Wells into submission tomorrow.

Who knows, maybe Wells will take the Tim Hudson approach to preparing for a playoff start at Fenwar Park. Actually, now that I think about it, I might tell my players they're not allowed to leave the hotel tonight if I were Joe Torre. As there are in every big city, there are a lot of stupid people in Boston and they're going to be ticked off after everything that happened today. I wouldn't want to think about what might happen if some drunk idiots spotted a couple of Yankees players.

Fantasy football

Here's the link to my fantasy football column for this week:

Fantasy football: Scrambing for a receiver? Don't pass on K.C.'s Hall

I'll have my post about my trip to Yankee Stadium up tomorrow. I have to work right now and then I'll need to pass out because I'm dead tired. Enjoy tonight's NLCS game three. It should be a good one.

Ho-hum

After nine straight days of tension-filled post-season baseball, Wednesday night was the least dramatic chapter of this year's playoffs.

In Chicago, the Cubs even the series at a game a piece thanks to a nice performance from Mark Prior (7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) and an offensive barrage that featured home runs from Alex Gonzalez (2), Sammy Sosa and Aramis Ramirez. The Cubs now have an excellent shot at going up 2-1 in the series with Kerry Wood on the mound for game three in Florida.

In New York, the Red Sox took the first game of their series against the Yankees with a workmanlike 5-2 victory. The game saw some nice pitching from Tim Wakefield (6 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K), some nice hitting from the Red Sox (home runs from Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Todd Walker), some poor pitching from Mike Mussina (two walks in 5.2 innings and just a 64-40 strike-ball ratio), some poor defense from the Yankees middle infielders (no errors, but I counted at least three hits that maybe should have been outs) and both bullpens doing pretty much what bullpens are supposed to do.

Since I was five years old during the playoffs in 1986, this is just the second time I've ever seen seen the Red Sox win the first game of a playoff series. I must say it feels nice, and I hope this time goes better than last time (the 1998 ALDS against Cleveland). If the Red Sox can take game two from the Yankees with Derek Lowe facing Andy Pettitte, they will be in very good shape heading back to Fenway Park up 2-0 with Pedro Martinez on the mound for game three. As it is, they've already taken home field advantage away from the Yankees, which is exactly what I was hoping for.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go to sleep. I need to wake up in less than five hours to make the drive down to the Big Apple so that Rob and I are in the Bronx in time to take our seats in Yankee Stadium for game two of the ALCS. I'm not sure when, but I'll definitely have a post of my experiences at my first-ever playoff game after I get back.

ALCS Preview

Aside from fans of the Athletics and Twins and people who hate the East Coast, this is the matchup the baseball world was hoping for. They got it, and it should be great. These two teams met in a playoff series for the first time four years ago and it wasn't pretty. The Red Sox were clearly the inferior team, they made 10 errors in five games, they got some bad bounces and they got no love from the umpires. This time around should be much better. The Red Sox and Yankees are about as evenly matched as they've ever been and I'll be shocked if the series doesn't go at least six games.

The Red Sox led the AL with 5.93 runs scored per game in the regular season, while the Yankees ranked third with 5.38 runs scored per game. On the other side of the ledger, the Yankees ranked fourth in the AL with 4.42 runs allowed per game while the Red Sox were eighth with 4.99 runs allowed per game.

So, let's take a look at those lineups and see how they stack up.

C - These are probably the two best catchers in the AL. They're both switch-hitters with power who are very highly regarded by all of the people around them. The only thing I dislike about either catcher is that Jorge Posada never blocks home plate on a close play there. He always comes up above the plate to receive the throw, and then he tries a sweep tag on the runner. But that's just one, fairly little, thing. Both of these catchers are exceedingly good.

Jason Varitek hit .273/.351/.512 (.863) in the regular season and an even better .286/.375/.714 (1.089) in the ALDS. He started Boston's rally in game five and he was there to capitalize on every Oakland mistake in game three.

Posada hit .281/.405/.518 (.922) in the regular season, but slumped to .176/.176/.235 (.412) in the ALDS. August and September were Posada's best two months this season, so he's probably not worn down from the season. It's more likely that he just had a bad four games against the Twins.

Bob Ryan wrote in the Boston Globe today that Varitek is Mr. Red Sox, but the Yankees do have a slight advantage here, at least based on the regular season. Posada does have a history of struggling in the post-season though (he's hit .222/.335/.370 in 189 playoff at-bats including this year), so maybe the Red Sox will get the better of this matchup (not that I think past post-season performance is indicative of future post-season performance).

1B - Both first basemen have been instrumental to their team's success on offense this year, but both are also struggling mightily at the moment.

Nick Johnson hit .284/.422/.472 (.894) in the regular season, but just .077/.294/.154 (.448) in the ALDS. He went 0-for-17 with just one walk in the last five games of the regular season, and that slump seems to have carried over to the playoffs as he only had one hit despite reaching base in each game in the series against Minnesota.

Kevin Millar hit .276/.348/.472 (.820) in the regular season, but just .238/.304/.238 (.542) in the ALDS. He hit just .251/.331/.421 (.752) after the All-Star break, and it doesn't seem to be getting any better in October.

Both players are decent on defense, both are capable of being good on offense and both are in a big funk at the plate right now, so I guess this position is about even. I'll give the Red Sox a slight advantage, however, because Millar has at least shown some ability to put the ball into play with authority recently. Johnson has just one hit in 30 at-bats in his last nine games.

2B - If you're trying to teach your son to become a good defensive second baseman, do not under any circumstances allow him to watch this series. It could get very, very ugly. Fortunately, both players are capable of hitting a little bit.

Todd Walker hit .283/.333/.428 (.760) in the regular season and amazingly hit .313/.353/.875 (1.228) in the ALDS. I wouldn't expect that hot hitting to necessarily continue, however, as his only hit after his stellar first game was his home run in game four.

Alfonso Soriano hit .290/.338/.525 (863) in the regular season and .368/.368/.421 (.789) in the ALDS. I wouldn't be surprised to see his walkless tendencies extend to the ALCS, but don't expect his powerless tendencies to do so as well.

The Yankees definitely have a significant advantage here, but I can't decide just how big an advantage it is. Soriano hits lefties (.312/.379/.565 in 138 at-bats this year, .298/.354/.523 in 369 at-bats before this year) much better than he hits righties (.285/.327/.515 in 544 at-bats this year, .285/.319/.502 in 1583 at-bats before this year) and he won't be facing a single left-handed pitcher in this series. On the other hand, Walker can't hit lefties to save his life (.234/.282/.373 against them in 158 at-bats this year, .259/.296/.382 against them in 424 at-bats the three previous seasons), and the Yankees have two of them in the starting rotation. Walker might not start all of the games in which the Yankees use a lefty, but Damian Jackson's presence in the lineup certainly won't narrow the gap on Soriano.

3B - Both teams traded away their original starting third basemen to give the job to somebody else. The move worked out beautifully for the Red Sox and not so well for the Yankees.

Bill Mueller had a career year by hitting .326/.398/.540 (.938) in the regular season, but slumped to .105/.227/.158 (.385) in the ALDS. He was only 10-for-41 with three walks, a double and no homers in his final 13 games, so he may be tiring from playing mre games than he had since 2000 or it may just be a random slump. He did hit the Yankees very well (.347/.420/.569) in the regular season, so maybe he'll snap out of it against them in the playoffs.

Aaron Boone hit .267/.327/.453 (.780) this season, but he was much worse with the Yankees (.254/.302/.418 in 54 games) than he was with the Reds (.273/.339/.469 in 106 games). He continued to struggle with the Yankees in the ALDS, hitting .200/.200/.267 (.467).

Boone is probably a better defensive player than Mueller, but Mueller was a much better offensive player in the regular season and I see no reason to believe he won't be in this series as well. I'll give the Red Sox the advantage here.

SS - This is certainly the most glamorous positional matchup in the series. As Thom Loverro writes in today's Washington Post, these two shortstops are always linked.

Nomar Garciaparra hit .301/.345/.524 in the regular season and a quiet .300/.391/.350 (.741) in the ALDS. His terrible September (.170/.248/.351) prevented him from getting serious consideration for the AL MVP award, but at least he rediscovered his hitting stroke, if not all of his power, for the playoffs.

Derek Jeter hit .324/.393/.450 (.844) in the regular season and got even better in the ALDS, hitting .429/.556/.643 (.1.198) against the Twins. The only positive the Red Sox pitchers have against him is that he hits lefties (.370/.442/.500 in 100 at-bats this year, .337/.415/.499 in 347 at-bats the previous three years) much better than he hits righties (.312/.380/.437 in 382 at-bats this year, .302/.371/.438 in 1393 at-bats the previous three years) and, like Soriano, he won't be facing any lefties in this series. Of course, that didn't stop Jeter from hitting .394/.474/.515 (.989) against the Red Sox this year.

I'll give the Red Sox a slight advantage here because Garciaparra's edge on defense makes up for the slight edge Jeter appears to have on offense right now. Plus, if Garciaparra hits like he's capable of hitting then he'll be at least Jeter's equal offensively. One thing's for sure, it'll be interesting to see how they do in an LCS when they're both completely healthy (remember that Garciaparra had that wrist injury in the '99 LCS).

LF - This is definitely Boston's biggest advantage. Neither player is anything special on defense, whereas Boston's left fielder is a great hitter in America and New York's left fielder was a great hitter in Japan.

Manny Ramirez hit .325/.427/.587 (1.014) in the regular season, but just .200/.304/.350 (.654) in the ALDS. However, he showed without a doubt in game five that he is still a fearsome hitter.

Hideki Matsui hit .287/.353/.435 (.788) in the regular season and .267/.353/.533 (.886) in the ALDS. His performance this season was about what I expected of him -- good enough to play left field in the major leagues, but not any better than a bunch of guys the Yankees could have gotten much more cheaply. Since money isn't really an issue for the Yankees, it doesn't really matter that they're paying $6 million for basically an average left fielder.

As I said, Boston has a huge advantage here. Ramirez is a perennial MVP candidate while Matsui is decidedly average, although he does do all the "little things" well. In all seriousness, his fundamentals are much, much better than those of Ramirez, but he's not even in the same hemisphere as Ramirez offensively.

CF - This position is muddled by the injury to Johnny Damon. It looks like he will miss at least the first two games of the series, and some reports say he'll be out at least a week. He's on the ALCS roster, so the Red Sox clearly expect him to be ready to play at some point. Until that point, however, Gabe Kapler will play center field. Also, Jackson will be the only defensive replacement available for center as Adrian Brown was left off the ALCS roster.

Damon hit .273/.345/.405 (.750) in the regular season and .316/.409/.579 (.988) in the ALDS and is an excellent defensive center fielder despite his poor throwing arm. Kapler hit .291/.349/.449 (.798) with the Red Sox in the regular season, but didn't have a hit in nine at-bats in the ALDS. I'm not real sure how good Kapler is defensively in center, but he's certainly significantly worse than Damon.

For the Yankees, Bernie Williams hit .263/.367/.411 (.778) in the regular season, but got hot and hit .400/.444/.533 (.978) in the ALDS. He's also lost a few steps and is now probably a liability in center field rather than an asset defensively.

If Damon were healthy, I'd give the Red Sox a slight advantage here. Since he's not, I'll give the Yankees a slight advantage. Obviously, it will be very good for the Red Sox if Damon can return at full strength very quickly.

RF - Based on the ALDS, it looks as though Juan Rivera will get the bulk of the playing time here for the Yankees. That's good for the Red Sox, because they only have right-handed starters and Rivera doesn't hit righties well (.236/.282/.390 in 123 at-bats this year, .246/.288/.382 in 199 at-bats before this year).

In 260 at-bats in the regular season, Rivera hit .266/.304/.468 (.773), but that's only because he absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. In the ALDS, he hit .333/.385/.333 (.718). The three players who could potentially replace Rivera in right field (David Dellucci, Karim Garcia and Ruben Sierra) combined for just two at-bats in the ALDS against the Twins.

For the Red Sox, Trot Nixon hit .306/.396/.578 (.975) in the regular season and .200/.273/.500 (.773) in the ALDS. Damon's injury also affects right field for Boston, because it means Nixon will have to start against a lefty if Kapler is playing in center. Nixon hit just .219/.296/.375 (.671) in 96 at-bats against lefties this year (.221/.303/.341 in 317 at-bats the previous three years), but he will probably have to start against a lefty at least once in this series.

Still, the Red Sox have a pretty decent advantage here. That advantage will get even more pronounced if Damon gets healthy and allows Kapler to spell Nixon against lefties.

DH - Both teams received a great deal of offense from their DH in the regular season and not much offense from their DH in the ALDS.

Jason Giambi had an "off" year that saw him hit .250/.412/.527 (.939) in the regular season before slumping to .250/.333/.375 (.708) in the ALDS. It's pretty clear that his hitting is suffering from his season-long injuries, but he's still got a great eye and he still has dangerous power.

David Ortiz had a career year that saw him hit .288/.369/.592 (.961) in the regular season before slumping to .095/.174/.143 (.317) in the ALDS, although he did come through with the winning double in game two. Ortiz destroyed the Yankees pitching staff in the regular season (.327/.383/.745 in 55 at-bats) and it will be interesting to see if he can snap out of his slump and do so again in this series.

I'd give the Yankees a slight advantage here, because Giambi has a better pedigree as a hitter and because Ortiz slumped so badly in the ALDS. But either hitter could certainly get red hot for the ALCS.

The Red Sox have a definite advantage in the starting lineups, as they have the better offense and probably the better defense. Also, it's worth noting that the Red Sox can reasonably expect to start a rally at any point because they don't have any real weak spots in the lineup from top to bottom. For the Yankees, however, it would be surprising if the bottom of the order (Boone and Rivera) get things started because they're not very good hitters.

As far as the benches go, there's not much to talk about. The Red Sox are a bit thin on the bench because of Damon's injury and the Yankees are a bit thin on the bench because they don't have any really good backups.

Now, how about those starting pitchers?

Game one is an interesting matchup. Mike Mussina has been the ace of New York's pitching staff ever since he signed in the Bronx, but he hasn't been treated that way in the playoffs as he didn't start until game three in the division series each of the last two post-seasons. This year, he started the first game of the ALDS and will start the first game of the ALCS. For the Red Sox, Tim Wakefield will start game one after being left off the ALCS roster four years ago in the first ALCS matchup of these two teams.

Mussina had a 3.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 195 strikeouts, 40 walks and 21 homers allowed in 214.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed three runs (all earned, but not really deserved) on seven hits and three walks with six strikeouts in seven innings in the ALDS. Until his last start of the season when he got bombed by the White Sox, he was a candidate (although definitely not a favorite) for the AL Cy Young award.

Wakefield had 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 169 strikeouts, 71 walks and 23 homers allowed in 202.1 innings. He allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in six innings in his ALDS start.

The Yankees certainly have the advantage here, but Wakefield did have a 2.01 ERA in September, so it might not be as big an advantage as you would think it is.

Game two will pit Andy Pettitte against Derek Lowe.

Pettitte had a 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 180 strikeouts, 50 walks and 21 homers allowed in 208.1 innings in the regular season. He allowed one run on four hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts in seven innings in the ALDS.

Lowe had a 4.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 110 strikeouts, 72 walks and 17 homers allowed in 203.1 innings. He allowed one unearned run on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts in seven innings in his ALDS start.

I think these two pitchers are pretty evenly matched, but I'll give the Yankees a slight edge because Lowe may be a little tired after pitching three times in the ALDS and the Red Sox weren't as good against lefties as they were against righties this year. You might think the Yankees would have a big edge because Lowe's been so much better at home than on the road this year, but most of his road struggles were due to 21.1 terrible innings on turf (9.70 ERA).

Game three is a rematch of 1999's third game -- Pedro Martinez against Roger Clemens at Fenway Park. Only this time it's the Rocket's final start at Fenway (and possibly the final start of his career, who knows?).

Martinez had a 2.22 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 206 strikeouts, 47 walks and seven homers allowed in 186.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed six runs on 13 hits and five walks with nine strikeouts in 14 innings in the ALDS.

Clemens had a 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 190 strikeouts, 58 walks and 24 homers allowed in 211.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed one run on five hits and a walk with six strikeouts in seven innings in the ALDS.

I know Martinez wasn't his best in the ALDS and Clemens was, but I've still got to give the Red Sox a significant edge here. Until I see indisputable evidence to the contrary, there's still no pitcher I'd rather have on the mound for a big game than Martinez.

Game four looks like the biggest mismatch, as David Wells takes on John Burkett.

Wells had a 4.14 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 101 strikeouts, 20 walks and 24 homers allowed in 213 innings in the regular season. He allowed one run on eight hits and no walks with five strikeouts in 7.2 innings in the ALDS.

Burkett had a 5.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 107 strikeouts, 47 walks and 20 homers allowed in 181.2 innings in the regular season. He allowed four runs (thanks to Grady Little's slow hook) on nine hits and two walks with one strikeout in 5.1 innings in the ALDS. He's occassionally capable of cobbling together a nice start, but he's always a train wreck waiting to happen.

As I said, the Yankees have a very big advantage here. Wells isn't a great pitcher, but he doesn't beat himself and he almost always give you a lot of innings. Burkett gets hit hard almost always from the very first pitch and never goes real deep into games.

In the bullpen, the only difference between the two teams is Mariano Rivera. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, that's a very big difference.

In fact, if you took away Rivera and whoever you think Boston's best reliever is, I'd much rather have the rest of Boston's bullpen than the rest of New York's bullpen. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, you can't do that.

There are really only two positives here for the Red Sox. First, while their bullpen was a source of constant frustration in the regular season, it allowed just two runs (both in the first game) in 16.1 innings in the ALDS, which is prett damn good (1.10 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Second, the Yankees won't be able to rely almost exclusively on Rivera like they did in the ALDS, and the rest of their bullpen is very suspect.

Still, because of Rivera you have to give the Yankees a big advantage here. He allowed 16 hits and three walks to the Red Sox in 10 innings this year, but that was the regular season and he might be the best post-season pitcher of all-time, reliever or otherwise. He's allowed only eight earned runs in 84 innings (0.86 ERA) including this year's ALDS.

So, now that we've gotten through all of that, it's time for my official prediction. I know some of you will think this is just because I'm a Red Sox fan, but I think the Red Sox will win in seven games. I don't see any reason why they can't split the first two in Yankee Stadium and then win two of the next four, leaving things up to Martinez against Clemens in Yankee Stadium for a trip to the World Series. And like I said early, there's no pitcher I'd rather have on the mound in a big game than Martinez.

Note - These playoffs just keep getting better and better, don't they? That was one hell of a game the Cubs and Marlins played last night and although that wasn't the way I expected the Marlins to win game one of the series, I'll take credit for saying that they would.

NLCS Preview

Everybody still breathing after that amazing first round of the playoffs? Good, now it's time for the second round. The NLCS starts tonight and the ALCS starts tomorrow night. I'm going to preview the NLCS right now, and I'll do the ALCS tomorrow. Unfortunately, I'm a little pressed for time at the moment, so I'm not going to provide links for the players today.

During the regular season, the Florida Marlins ranked eighth in the NL with 4.64 runs scored per game while the Cubs were ninth with 4.47 runs scored per game. On the pitching and defense side, the Cubs ranked fourth with 4.22 runs allowed per game while the Marlins were sixth with 4.27 runs allowed per game. As you can see by those numbers, these two teams are very evenly matched.

The big advantage the Cubs have in the playoffs is that there was a big dropoff in talent from their top four starting pitchers to their fifth starters, while Florida's top five starters were all above average. Since the fifth starter isn't a big factor, if he's a factor at all, in the playoffs, that works for the Cubs better than the Marlins.

Now, let's see how those lineups stack up.

C - Ivan Rodriguez hit .297/.369/.474 (.843) in the regular season and .353/.450/.588 (1.038) in the NLDS. He's one of Florida's best hitters and he's generally regarded as very good defensively.

Damian Miller, on the other hand, hit just .233/.310/.369 (.680) in the regular season and slumped to .091/.231/.182 (.413) in the NLDS. You wouldn't think he can't be as bad in the NLCS as he was in the NLDS, but he really is a horrible hitter. Defensively, he's probably at least above average.

This is very clearly a big advantage for the Marlins. Even though he hits lefties much better than he hits righties and the Cubs only have righty starters, Rodriguez is still a better player to have than Miller.

1B - Eric Karros hit .286/.340/.446 (.786) in the regular season and then broke out by hitting .375/.375/.750 (1.125) in the NLDS. That performance probably ensures that he'll see the bulk of the action in the NLCS, even against righties, which may work to Florida's advantage since Randall Simon (.752 OPS) is a better hitter against righties than Karros (.683 OPS).

For the Marlins, I've said it before and I'll probably say it again, but I think Derrek Lee is one of the most underrated players in baseball. He hit .271/.379/.508 (.888) in the regular season, but hit just .250/.368/.313 (.681) in the NLDS. However, even when he's not hitting, like in the NLDS, Lee can still be valuable to his team by getting on base. He's also a fabulous defensive first baseman.

Unless Karros continues to hit home runs at a Barry Bonds-like rate, the Marlins should have a sizeable advantage here.

2B - Mark Grudzielanek overachieved in the regular season by hitting .314/.366/.416 (.782) and he underachieved in the NLDS by hitting .150/.261/.150 (.411). Maybe he'll find some happy medium in the NLCS.

Luis Castillo is one of the biggest parts of Florida's offense at the top of the lineup. He hit .314/.381/.397 (.778) in the regular season and .294/.400/.471 (.871) in the NLDS.

Castillo's regular season OPS may not be as high as Grudzienalek's, but he's the more valuable player on offense because he gets on base more often. Since both players are pretty good defensively, the Marlins have a slight advantage here.

3B - Aramis Ramirez hit .272/.324/.465 (.788) in the regular season and .278/.350/.500 (.850) in the NLDS. He's a good hitter, but he can be a bit of a free swinger and go into slumps at times.

Miguel Cabrera hit .268/.325/.468 (.793) in the regular season and .286/.333/.429 (.762) in the NLDS. He's also a free swinger who can get hot and cold depending on whether or not he's making good contact.

These two are pretty similar both defensively and offensively, so which player has a better series will probably depend on the pitching. Since the Cubs have a lot of strikeout pitchers, I'd give them the advantage as Cabrera will probably not make contact as often as he needs to to be successful.

SS - Alex Gonzalez is the better player here. What's that? Both shortstops are named Alex Gonzalez? Oh.

Chicago's Gonzalez hit .228/.295/.409 (.704) in the regular season and .250/.357/.500 (.857) in the NLDS.

Florida's Gonzalez hit .256/.313/.443 (.756) in the regular season and a putrid .063/.118/.063 (.180) in the NLDS.

They're pretty similar defensively, and offensively neither of them get on base much but Florida's Gonzalez has a bit more power. I'd say this is even as far as talent goes, but Chicago's Gonazalez will probably have a better series because I don't see Florida's Gonzalez doing much with the Chicago pitchers.

LF - Moises Alou hit .280/.357/.462 (819) in the regular season and .500/.524/.550 (1.074) in the NLDS. If he keeps hitting like that for the rest of the playoffs, he will be worth the big contract they gave him before last season.

Jeff Conine hit .282/.338/.459 (.797) in the regular season and .267/.353/.267 (.620) in the playoffs.

Conine's a nice hitter to have around, but Alou's the better offensive player and neither one of them's anything to write home about defensively. The Cubs have the advantage here.

CF - Kenny Lofton hit .296/.352/.450 (.801) in the regular season and .286/.348/.333 (.681) in the NLDS.

Juan Pierre hit .305/.362/.373 (.734) in the regular season and .263/.300/.316 (.616).

Both players hit around .300 and get on base at a decent clip, but Lofton had a little power and Pierre doesn't have any. Defensively, they're probably both above average, but I'm not 100-percent sure. I'll give the Cubs the edge here, but it's not a big one.

RF - Sammy Sosa hit .279/.358/.553 (.911) in the regular season and .188/.409/.250 (.659) in the NLDS.

Juan Encarnacion hit .270/.313/.446 (.756) in the regular season and .133/.235/.333 (.569) in the NLDS.

Sosa's clearly a better hitter than Encarnacion, but even when neither of them are hitting (like in the NLDS), Sosa's a better offensive player because he walks. The Cubs win this position no matter what, and could win it by a lot if Sosa hits like Sosa.

The Marlins probably have a better overall lineup, but just slightly. And if Sosa starts hitting like he's really capable of hitting, that advantage could disappear entirely.

On the bench, the Marlins probably have the better top pinch-hitter in Mike Lowell over Simon, but neither team really has a great bench.

The starting pitching obviously favors the Cubs, but let's break it down by game.

Game one is Carlos Zambrano against Josh Beckett. Zambrano had a 3.11 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 168 strikeouts, 94 walks and nine homers allowed in 214 innings in the regular season and Beckett had a 3.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 152 strikeouts, 56 walks and nine homers allowed in 142 innings in the regular season.

Both pitchers are a little wild, but Beckett strikes out more guys and Zambrano allows slightly fewer homers (neither pitcher allows many balls to leave the yard). Zambrano allowed three runs on 11 hits and no walks with four strikeouts in 5.2 innings in his NLDS start while Beckett allowed one run on two hits and five walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings in his. I'll give the Marlins a definite advantage here.

Game two will be Mark Prior against Brad Penny. Penny (4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in the regular season) is a nice pitcher, but Prior (2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIIP in the regular season) is a ridiculously good pitcher. Prior allowed one run on two hits and four walks with seven strikeouts in nine innings in the NLDS and Penny allowed four runs on five hits and a walk with six strikeouts in 5.2 innings in the NLDS. This is a no contest, huge advantage for the Cubs.

Game three is Kerry Wood vs. Mark Redman. Again, Redman (3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) is a nice pitcher, but Wood (3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) showed in the NLDS that he can be ridiculously good. Wood allowed three runs on seven hits and seven walks with 18 strikeouts in 15.1 in two NLDS starts and Redman allowed two runs on seven hits and three walks with four strikeouts in six innings in his NLDS start. Big advantage for the Cubs.

In the games pitched by Prior and Wood, the advantage isn't just how good they are, it's also how deep they are capable of pitching into games. Prior threw a complete game in the NLDS and Wood would have thrown one if a lot of the idiots out there had had their way (Dusty Baker was absolutely right to take Wood out with a three-run lead after he had thrown 117 pitches).

Game four is Matt Clement against Dontrelle Willis. Clement had a 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 171 strikeouts, 79 walks and 22 homers allowed in 201.2 innings in the regular season and Willis had a 3.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 142 strikeouts, 58 walks and 13 homers allowed in 160.2 innings in the regular season, and neither of them was particularly good in the NLDS.

This looks like a definite advantage for the Marlins, but Willis slowed considerably after a very hot start and Clement showed during the regular season that he's capable of throwing a gem any time he goes out. He's also capable of stinking up the joint. I'll call this even since we don't know how tired Willis is and we don't know which Clement will show up.

The bullpens are pretty even. Both were excellent in the NLDS, both have a very good closer, and both have a couple of reliable setup men.

My official prediction is that the Cubs will win in six games. I think the Marlins will win both games in which Beckett faces Zambrano (like tonight) and I think the Cubs will win the other four (Prior over Penny twice, Wood over Redman and Clement over Willis). I think the worst that could happen to the Cubs is that Willis beats Clement in which case Chicago has Wood going in game seven and should still win the series.

Party like it's 1999

Just before 8:30 p.m. on the West Coast Monday night, the Boston Red Sox became the first franchise to twice come back from losing the first two games in the division series to win the next three and advance to the League Championship Series. At the same time, the Oakland Athletics became the first franchise to twice fall apart after winning the first two games in the division series and lose the next three to head into the offseason.

I don't know what it was like to be an A's fan in 2001, but I do know what it was like to be a Red Sox fan in 1999. How did this series compare to that series? I'm glad you asked.

Both series began just the way you would like them to -- with each team's ace toeing the rubber. Pedro Martinez against Indians ace Bartolo Colon in 1999 and Martinez against A's ace Tim Hudson this year.

The games were similar in many ways, but different in many others. In 1999, Pedro breezed through the first four innings with three hits and no runs allowed. Then, a bad back forced him out of the game before he had even pitched long enough to qualify for the win.

This year, Pedro flew through the first two innings before the A's touched him up for three runs in the third.

Back in 1999, Nomar Garciaparra had staked Pedro to a 2-0 lead before the fragile ace had to leave. Garciaparra, playing in his first game in eight days thanks to a bruised tendon in his right wrist that everybody in New England would know a lot more about all too soon, hit a solo homer in the second and doubled and scored on Mike Stanley's single in the fourth.

This year, Todd Walker gave the Red Sox an early 1-0 lead on a solo homer off Hudson in the first before Pedro let the A's jump ahead. Pedro would then settle down and pitch four more scoreless innings, by which point the Red Sox offense had regained his lead for him.

Jason Varitek's solo homer in the fifth brought Boston within a run, and Walker gave the Red Sox a 4-3 lead with his second homer of the game in the seventh inning, this time off left-handed reliever Ricardo Rincon.

So, both times the Red Sox had the lead when Pedro left the ball game. In 1999, the Red Sox turned to Derek Lowe to protect that lead, and he was brilling while allowing just one hit in four innings. Unfortunately, he also lost.

The only hit Lowe allowed was a monster home run to Jim Thome in the sixth that followed a John Valentin error that allowed Manny Ramirez to reach base safely. Ramirez would reach base without getting a hit again leading off the ninth inning when Lowe plunked him in the back. Travis Fryman later singled off Rich Garces with the bases loaded and one out to tag Lowe with the loss.

This year, the Red Sox turned to several people to protect Pedro's lead. First, Mike Timlin came in to pitch a scoreless eighth inning. The Red Sox then turned things over to embattled closer Byung-Hyun Kim, who calmly got the first out in the ninth before walking a batter and hitting another batter to put the winning run on with one out. Kim recovered to strike out Mark Ellis, but that was the end of his night.

Left-handed reliever Alan Embree came in to face left-handed hitter Erubiel Durazo with the game on the line. Durazo won the battle with a single to tie the game and force extra innings.

Just as the 1999 Red Sox were unable to get anything going on offense against Colon and Paul Shuey after the Indians tied the game, the 2003 Red Sox were unable to get anything going on offense against Chad Bradford, Keith Foulke or Rich Harden after the A's tied the game.

Scott Williamson pitched a scoreless 10th for this year's Red Sox before Lowe was called on to once again try and help the Red Sox win game one of an ALDS.

Again Lowe allowed just one hit, but it was just as big (in importance if not in distance) as the one he allowed four years ago. After a walk, two groundouts and then two more walks, Lowe was facing Ramon Hernandez with the bases loaded and two outs.

In the surprise of all surprises, Hernandez dropped down a perfect bunt and the winning run scored while the Red Sox tried to figure out what had just happened. For the second straight playoff appearance, Lowe was Boston's game one loser.

After losing the first game of each series in heartbreaking fashion after wasting a start by Pedro, the Red Sox were unable to even put up a fight in game two of either series.

In 1999, Charles Nagy toyed with the Red Sox for seven innings, allowing just one run. Meanwhile, a botched double play by Red Sox second baseman Jose Offerman opened the floodgates for a six-run third inning as the Indians routed the Red Sox 11-1.

This year, Barry Zito and his wonderful curveball toyed with the Red Sox for seven innings, allowing just one run while striking out nine. Meanwhile, an error by Red Sox second baseman Todd Walker helped the A's score five runs in the second inning of a 5-1 victory. In fairness to Walker, the Red Sox had already allowed three runs when he made his error, while the 1999 Red Sox had a 1-0 lead when Offerman erred.

So, twice I went into the postseason full of hope, and twice I watched disappointedly as the Red Sox dropped their first two games before flying home to try and bounce back in Fenway Park. The strangest part? I was unable to watch and see whether or not my beloved Red Sox would win either third game.

In 1999, I had a trip to Philadelphia the day of the third game that I couldn't miss. This year, I had a wedding to go and the reception started at 6 p.m. with the game starting at 7:30 p.m.

In 1999, I found a pay phone in Philly and called my mom in Springfield, Mass. to ask how the Red Sox were doing as three other Red Sox fans huddled around me and the phone. We learned that the Red Sox were losing 1-0, but that Cleveland starting pitcher Dave Burba had left after four innings of shutout ball with a strained forearm.

We would later learn that the Red Sox won the game 9-3 thanks to home runs from John Valentin and Brian Daubach and a quality start from Ramon Martinez.

Saturday, one of the groomsmen at the wedding told me at one point that he had heard that the Red Sox were leading 1-0 in the fourth or fifth inning. That was all I heard of the game until one of my friends, Todd, called me not long before midnight to tell me that was one of the best endings to a game he had ever seen. I told him I hadn't been able to watch it and he told me that Doug Mirabelli hit a two-run walkoff home run in the 11th inning to win the game for the Red Sox.

I would later learn that it was Trot Nixon who hit the home run, with Mirabelli scoring ahead of him, and that the A's had cost themselves an almost certain shot at sweeping the series thanks to some bad defense and some horrendous baserunning (some people think the A's should have won that game even with their baserunning and defensive mistakes, but that's simply not the case. They were not screwed out of a win by the umpires).

I would also later learn that Lowe had allowed just one run in 8.1 innings after having made the gradual and very strange transformation from setup man (1999) to elite closer (2000) to inept closer (2001) to Cy Young caliber starter (2002) to inconsistent starter (2003).

So, the Red Sox had battled off an elimination game in each series and, though they were still certainly the underdogs with a 2-1 deficit, they had life. And I, after a one-game hiatus each year, was able to watch those new lives.

In the game fours, Boston's opponents both brought their ace game one starters back on three days rest while the Red Sox saved Pedro both times out of necessity. In 1999 he still had the bad back and this year he had thrown 130 pitches in game one.

So it was up to Kent Mercker to beat Colon and John Burkett to beat Hudson. Except that's not really what happened either year.

Neither Colon nor Mercker were able to escape the second inning in 1999, but the Red Sox got the better of the exchange, leading 7-2 after two. They continued to bash the Indians pitching staff into submission, winning 23-7 to even the series at two games apiece with one of the most fun games I have ever had the pleasure of watching.

This year, Hudson pitched a scoreless first inning, but had to leave before the second inning due to injury. Burkett worked his way out of a bases loaded and nobody out jam in the second with just one run scoring, and the Red Sox were able to take a 2-1 lead thanks to Johnny Damon's two-run homer off Steve Sparks.

Burkett worked his way in and out of trouble for a few more innings and the Red Sox still led 2-1 going into the top of the sixth. That's when Grady Little tried to get greedy. He let Burkett pitch to the first batter, who singled. He let Burkett pitch to the next batter, who Burkett got out on a hard liner to third base. He let Burkett pitch to the third batter, who tripled to tie the game at 2-2. Finally, he let Burkett pitch to Jermaine Dye, who homered to give Oakland a 4-2 lead.

Burkett's night over 1-4 batters too late, Tim Wakefield and Williamson combined to finish the game without any more Oakland runs scoring. The question was whether or not even that would be good enough to let the Boston offense rally.

Todd Walker cut the deficit in half immediately, hitting his third homer of the series and his second off Ricardo Rincon in the bottom of the sixth, but the Red Sox went quietly in the seventh.

Then, the A's brought in Foulke yet again to try and get a long save starting in the eighth. Damon grounded out and Nomar doubled off the wall. Walker flied out to center and Ramirez singled into left field, but too hard to score Nomar with the tying run.

That brought up David Ortiz, who had been hitless in the series thus far. Cookie Monster drove a 3-2 pitch to deep right field, where Dye might have been able to catch it and certainly should have been able to field it cleanly enough to prevent Ramirez from scoring. He did neither, and the Red Sox had a 5-4 lead that turned into a 5-4 win when Williamson slammed the door shut.

So, twice the Red Sox lost the first two games of their division series, twice they came back to Fenway Park to even the series at two games apiece, and twice they headed back out onto the road one win away from a date with the New York Yankees in the ALCS. There were two differences between 1999 and 2003 going into game five.

First, this year the Red Sox knew they had Pedro on the hill for the fifth and deciding game whereas the following quotes were being made about Pedro in 1999:

Team doctor Arthur Pappas said it was "possible but not probable" that Martinez would be available tonight.

Pitching coach Joe Kerrigan said it was "unrealistic."

"I just don't think it's wise to start him," manager Jimy Williams said. "I don't know if he can pitch at all, to be very honest."

Second, in 1999, I was able to watch the fifth game with my suitemates, two of whom were (and still are) Red Sox fans and one of whom was (and still is) an Indians fan. This year, I had to work on the night the all-important game was being played.

The 1999 game was a seesaw affair from the beginning, with the Sox taking a 2-0 lead in the top of the first and falling behind 3-2 in the bottom of the inning. The Indians extended their lead to 5-2 in the second, but the Red Sox took a 7-5 lead in the third thanks to a Troy O'Leary grand slam following an intentional walk to Nomar. However, the Indians jumped back ahead 8-7 in the bottom of the third before the Red Sox tied it at eight runs apiece in the top of the fourth.

And that's when the game ended.

Obviously it didn't really end there, but that's when Pedro came in and you just had a feeling (or at least my suitemates -- even the Indians fan -- and I did) that the Indians were done.

Pedro didn't allow the Indians to score -- or even get a hit -- for the next six innings and the Red Sox got all the offense they'd need when the Indians intentionally walked Nomar again and O'Leary homered again, this time a three-run shot.

I remember the two Red Sox fans and myself jumping on the furniture and running around the suite while the Indians fan sunk deeper and deeper into his chair. The three of us too young to remember 1986 firsthand with any sort of clarity, this was the first time we had experienced the Red Sox winning a postseason series. And that was my happiest day as a baseball fan. Until Monday.

Monday, as I said, I had to work. Luckily, I work in the sports department at the newspaper in Rochester, NY and we always have the two TVs there tuned to sporting events. So, I was able to watch the game while I worked.

At first it looked like Pedro and Zito might match zeroes all night as both looked very sharp, but Pedro cracked first, allowing a run in the fourth on a walk and a double.

Zito was not only brilliant through the first five innings, allowing just two hits and no runs, he was also efficient, throwing just 62 pitches. In the top of the sixth, however, Varitek reached him for a solo homer to tie the game at 1-1 and I gave my first fist pump and yelp of joy of the night.

Then, it looked like Zito started to tire quickly, walking Damon and hitting Walker with a Nomar foul pop up mixed in. Up came Ramirez and I know this sounds like a load of bull, but I just felt like he was going to go deep. He went very deep, tagging a 2-2 pitch well into the left field stands to give the Red Sox a 4-1 lead.

I felt comfortable at that point, but Boston didn't make it easy. Pedro gave a run back in the sixth and, after a gruesome collision between Damon and Damian Jackson in the seventh, he quickly gave another run back in the eighth. Alan Embree and Timlin finished the eighth for Pedro, so the Red Sox went to the bottom of the ninth with a 4-3 lead.

Williamson, who had been so good (and maybe overused) in the first four games, walked the first four batters he faced. So, the pitcher who had pitched in games one, three and five in 1999 came in to pitch for his third time in this series after already appearing in games one and three.

Hernandez immediately bunted the runners over to second and third with one out, so Lowe had to get the next two outs very carefully to preserve the win.

Adam Melhuse took Lowe's first pitch for a ball and then fouled off the next one. He took another ball before another foul evened the count at 2-2. Then Lowe delivered a nasty pitch that started inside and then darted back over the corner of the plate at the last moment for a called strike three.

Chris Singleton came up next and took the first two pitches for balls. He then took ball three high, but it was called a strike and he fouled off the next pitch to even the count at 2-2. With the A's one strike away from elimination, Lowe delievered two more balls to load the bases with two outs for Terrence Long.

You may remember that Lowe intentionally walked Long in game one, but he didn't want to. If I need to get an Oakland hitter out in a tough spot and I got to choose which hitter it was, I'm pretty sure I'd pick Long.

Anyway, Lowe's first pitch to Long was right down the middle for a called strike. The next pitch was a ball, and Long fouled off the next pitch to fall behind 1-2. Then, another absolutely nasty pitch from Lowe that snuck over the corner for a called third strike to put the Red Sox in the ALCS.

In 1999, I was very happy, but I could believe what was happening. The Red Sox just pounded their way past the Indians and into the ALCS. This year, I'm very happy, but I can't believe what happened. The Red Sox did some good things to advance their cause, but they got a lot of help from the A's.

Before the playoffs started, Larry Mahnken told me that he was taping this year's playoff games and that I could get copies off him if I wanted them. Well, Larry, if you taped the Boston-Oakland games, I'd definitely like to get copies off you. I'm definitely going to need to see all of that again.

For now, however, I'm exceedingly happy that the Red Sox are in the ALCS. And I'm ecstatic that I have a ticket to game two of the ALCS, which will be the first playoff game I will have attended in person in my life.

I picked the Red Sox to beat the A's in five games and the Yankees to beat the Twins in four games in my ALDS previews, so this is what I expected to happen. However, I definitely knew that there was a good chance that the ticket I have for game two of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium would not have included the Red Sox. And I also knew there was some chance that the Yankees would not make the ALCS and I wouldn't have a ticket to game two.

So, I'm thrilled that everything worked out just the way I wanted it to, and I've got one explanation for why it did -- my authentic Nomar jersey.

My girfriend, Stacy, bought me my authentic Nomar jersey for Valentine's day and I kept it safe and clean in my closet for many months. Finally, on Friday, Sept. 3, I took it out and wore it for the first time. The reason being the Red Sox were playing the first game of a crucial three-game series against the New York Yankees.

The Red Sox won that game, and then I put the jersey away for awhile again. Sunday, I wore it while watching the Red Sox eke out a dramatic victory in game four of the ALDS. Monday, I wore it for the third time, and for the third time, the Red Sox won.

Coincidence? Probably. But there are some things I'm superstitious about, and you can bet I'll be wearing that jersey if the Red Sox are facing elimination against the Yankees.