Fantasy Friday
A "can't-miss" prospect one year after missing
Last year, there was no hitter more over-hyped than Texas third baseman Hank Blalock. I, like many other fantasy players, fell for it and drafted the "can’t-miss prospect" for two of my teams. As most everybody knows, he missed. Badly. This year, there was a new "can’t-miss prospect" in the Rangers camp: Mark Teixeira. While everybody was fawning over Teixeira, almost nobody talked about Blalock. Determined not to repeat my mistake, I avoided Teixeira like the plague in all of my drafts. Unfortunately, I also forgot about Blalock.
At this moment, Blalock is having his way with American League pitchers, hitting .423 with five homers. He only has nine RBI, but that's because he started the season hitting second. He hit fifth yesterday and will have plenty of RBI opportunities if he stays there. This should not really be a surprise. Players don’t get the "can’t-miss" label on a whim. Blalock has shown the ability to mash throughout his minor-league career. Why did he fail last year? Nerves, inexperience, who knows… These things happen sometimes and, unfortunately, the player in question often doesn’t get a second chance right away. Luckily for Blalock, Herbert Perry got hurt and Texas had no choice but to use Blalock every day to start this season.
Blalock obviously won’t hit quite this well all year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 30 homers and drive in at least 100 runs with a pretty good batting average. If you’re thinking of trading him while his value is high, don’t – especially if you’re in a keeper league. Blalock has what it takes to be a very good third baseman this year and an All-Star for years to come.
The other side of the Texas story is Teixeira. Just like Blalock did last year, Teixeira is struggling mightily. However, there are some differences between the two. First, the Rangers have already said that they are not going to send Teixeira back to the minors. Second, Teixeira is showing slight signs of breaking out of his slump. After starting the season 0-for-15, he's hit two home runs in his last six games. By no means should he be in your lineup right now, but he’s worth hanging onto if you can stash him on your bench. Regardless of what Teixeira does the rest of this year, don’t forget about him in your draft(s) next year.
Now, I’m going to discuss some other young players who were expected to become very good players eventually and see significant time this year.
Hee Seop Choi
Choi needed to get off to a good start this season, because Dusty Baker is well known for preferring veterans to youngsters. The Cubs just so happen to have a "proven veteran" available for first base in Eric Karros, and it’s likely that he would have replaced Choi had Choi struggled to start the season. Well, he has done anything but.
Choi homered for the fourth time this season (and the third game in a row) yesterday and, while his average is "only" .281, it’s clear that he knows how to hit. His 15 walks won’t help you in most leagues, but the fact that he understands the strike zone and the value of a walk means it’s less likely that he’ll have prolonged slumps. Fewer prolonged slumps means fewer chances for Baker to think about taking him out of the lineup. He’s currently batting fifth behind Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou, which means plenty of RBI opportunities.
Choi will probably keep his average in the .280-.300 range and can hit 25-35 homers and drive in 100-plus runs. He won't be in the top tier of first baseman this year, but he will give you good value at the position. If you can keep him, he'll eventually get into that top tier, perhaps as soon as next year.
Runelvys Hernandez
I’ve mentioned Hernandez each of the last two days, so without giving you any numbers I’ll just say that he’s been very impressive so far. If you have him, you should try to trade him right now. The best I could see Hernandez doing with his ratio stats is a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. While that would be very good, he may not hit those marks and you may be able to get better value than that in a trade if you act while the entire baseball world is in love with him. Also, even if he does post a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, he probably won’t win more than a dozen or so games for a couple reasons – 1) Kansas City’s offense is not great, which means he probably will not have a ton of run support and 2) he’s not likely to pitch more than six or seven innings in any start, which will give the bullpen two or three innings to blow his lead and leave him with a no decision. I’d be less inclined to trade him in a keeper league, but even then I’d definitely see what people are willing to give up for him.
Kurt Ainsworth
When the season started, I thought that if Ainsworth struggled he would quickly be replaced in the rotation by Jesse Foppert, another of San Francisco’s excellent pitching prospects. Well, two things have happened. Ainsworth has been the best starter in the Giants rotation and Ryan Jensen has been terrible and is now on the DL, which means Foppert is in the rotation anyway (or will be when the Giants need their fifth starter again). With these developments, Ainsworth’s job seems very secure and because of that he has two things going for him besides his great talent. First, he plays half of his games in a great pitchers park. Second, he plays all of his games with a very good offense backing him up. What I’m trying to say is that Ainsworth is a good pitcher to have on your staff. He’ll finish with good ratios, an above average strikeout total and enough wins to make him more than just a fourth or fifth fantasy starter.
Marlon Byrd
Byrd has been Philadelphia’s centerfielder of the future for awhile and the future was supposed to start this year. The Phillies were so confident that he would be up to the task, that they didn’t really have another centerfielder on the roster when the season opened. About the most conservative projections I saw for him were an average in the .260-.280 range, 15 homers, 15 steals, 75 runs and 75 RBI. With those numbers as his minimums, surely he’d be a valuable addition to most fantasy teams.
Well, it’s not looking so good now. Byrd had an awful 10-game tryout at the end of last year. That doesn’t mean much, but he had an awful 11-game start this year before landing on the DL with a leg laceration. Even if he comes back soon and completely healthy, I doubt he’s going to reach those conservative predictions. I still think he’ll be a good player, but it may not happen this year or even next year. If you’re in a deep league with a good-size bench, I guess you may as well keep him for now. Otherwise, let him go and keep an eye open just in case he puts everything together in a hurry.