A couple of odd Beanes
While visiting Rob Neyer's page on ESPN.com, I checked out the Beane Count rankings and saw some very surprising results. For those of you who don't know, the Beane Count is a little tool Neyer invented based on the assumption that hitting home runs and drawing walks is good and allowing home runs and walks is bad. To get your teams Beane Count, simply add up their league ranking in Home runs hit, Walks drawn, Home runs allowed and Walks allowed. The best teams generally have the best Beane Counts. The surprising thing I discovered is that Kansas City has the second-best Beane Count in the AL and Baltimore has the fourth best.
Now, you might not be surprised to see the Royals so high up because they've been winning a lot, but who'd have thought the Orioles would rank that high. Last year, Baltimore and Kansas City tied for the second-worst Beane Counts in the AL (better than only Tampa Bay). Let's taker a closer look at each team.
Kansas City
The Royals rank ninth in both walks drawn and walks allowed, fourth in home runs hit and second in home runs allowed for a Beane Count of 24. Last year, they were 12th in home runs hit, eighth in walks drawn, 13th in home runs allowed and 10th in walks allowed for a Beane Count of 43. So, they're doing just about as well last year with the walks, but both the pitchers and the hitters are doing much better with the home runs.
The Royals don't have any players with more than seven home runs, but they do have five players with at least five homers. Also, Carlos Beltran has hit four homers since coming back from his injury. The Royals probably won't hit the 192 homers they're on pace for, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them hit 170-180 homers which would probably put them around the middle of the pack (and 5-6 spots higher than last year in the rankings).
Kansas City's pitching staff has given up, on average, a homer about every 10 innings this season. Last year, they gave up a homer every 6.8 innings. Just about every one on the pitching staff is giving up fewer home runs than they have in the past, and it's hard to tell if it's an improvement or just a fluke. Four of Kansas City's five starters are allowing fewer than one home run per 10 innings. The bullpen has allowed a home run every 8.85 innings, but that number would be much better (one every 11.3 innings) if you took out Albie Lopez and his four homers allowed in 18 innings.
What does the future hold for the Royals? Well, their catchers will probably stop hitting so many homers, their young pitchers will start allowing home runs at least slightly more frequently and Lopez will continue to pitch too many innings. If they can keep their walk levels where they are (and they should be able to because they're pretty much the same as last year) and keep their home run rankings in the top half of the league, they'll have a Beane Count of around 30. That would be a vast improvement over last year and would probably allow the Royals to have a record around .500. Interestingly, Kansas City's biggest competition (Minnesota) has posted back-to-back Beane Counts of 30 and has a Beane Count of 33 at the moment.
Baltimore
The Orioles rank 11th in home runs hit, sixth in walks drawn, tied for fourth in home runs allowed and fourth in walks allowed for a Beane Count of 25.5. Last year, Baltimore ranked ninth in home runs hit, 13th in walks drawn, 12th in home runs allowed and ninth in walks allowed for a Beane Count of 43. So, the Orioles are ranked about the same in home runs hit, but they're much better in the other three categories.
First, I'm going to look at the offense and it's newfound tendency to walk. As far as roster changes, they lost two players who received at least 350 at-bats, added two players who are on pace to receive at least 350 at-bats and have one player who is on pace to receive more than 300 fewer at-bats this year than he got last year. The players they got rid of are Chris Singleton, who walked just 21 times in 466 at-bats, and Mike Bordick, who walked 35 times in 367 at-bats. The players they added are B.J. Surhoff, who has eight walks in 83 at-bats, and Deivi Cruz, who has just one walk in 114 at-bats. Marty Cordova drew 47 walks in 458 at-bats last year and has eight walks in just 30 at-bats this year. Cordova's 300 at-bats seem to be going to Gary Matthews Jr.. Matthews had 43 walks in 344 at-bats last year and has six walks in 146 at-bats this year.
So, last year Bordick, Singleton and Cordova combined for 103 walks in 1,291 at-bats (one walk every 12.5 at-bats). This year, Surhoff, Cruz and Mathews have 15 walks in 343 at-bats (one walk every 22.9 at-bats). So, the change in personnel appears to have actually hurt Baltimore's ability to draw walks. Looking at the players who got at least 350 at-bats last year and have seen significant time this year, almost all of them have seen an increase in their walk rate. Two players in particular stand out.
Jeff Conine drew 25 walks in 451 at-bats last year, but he already has 19 walks in 139 at-bats this year. Jerry Hairston Jr. drew 34 walks in 426 at-bats, but has 19 walks in 138 at-bats this year. Baltimore's walk ranking this year will hinge upon whether these are new performance levels for Conine and Hairston or whether they are just fluky starts.
Last year, Baltimore had five pitchers throw at least 130 innings and each of them gave up at least 19 homers. This year, the Orioles have four pitchers on pace to throw at least 174 innings and only one of them is on pace to allow more than 13 homers. Last year's quintet allowed 109 homers and 282 walks in 802.1 innings. This year's quartet is on pace to allow 65 homers and 234 walks in 745 innings. Sidney Ponson has been much better in both homers and walks and Jason Johnson has allowed fewer home runs and more walks. The Orioles also had five pitchers allow at least 10 homers in fewer than 85 innings. This year, they only have two relievers on pace to allow more than 10 homers.
I think that the Orioles are just pitching a little above their heads right now. I don't know that they'll be as bad as they were last year, but I'll be surprised if their pitchers end up ranked better than seventh in either category. That would have Baltimore headed for another season with a Beane Count around 40. I could be wrong, but just looking at their roster there's no reason to think they suddenly have a pitching staff that will be among the best in the league at not allowing home runs or walks.