State of the Red Sox Saturday

As painful as those two losses in the St. Louis series were, I'll gladly take a 6-4 record through 10 games of the interleague schedule. I'd bet the Red Sox would post their best interleague record ever if they just split the remaining eight games. Hopefully, they'll do better than that though.

At 37-28, Boston is in pretty good shape. The Red Sox are just half a game behind the Yankees and 1.5 games ahead of Oakland. The new problem is Toronto, which is just half a game behind the Red Sox. The Blue Jays don't look like they're going anywhere, but they're still more likely to be sellers at the trading deadline than buyers. Anyway, on to the team breakdown.

Starting rotation

Obviously the best news is that Pedro Martinez is back and looks as good as ever. He threw three scoreless innings with two hits, no walks and three strikeouts in his mini-start. He now has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP and says he feels fine and hopes to go at least five innings in his next start.

Derek Lowe seems to be coming around too. He has made two straight quality starts, and both of them were on the road! He's now 6-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Tonight he returns to the friendly confines of Fenway Park, where he is 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.

Tim Wakefield pitched very well in Thursday's heartbreaker, allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts in six innings. That stands nicely in contrast to his previous seven starts, during which he posted a 6.38 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. The Red Sox went 2-5 in those seven starts, but Wakefield himself actually went 2-1. He needs to be much better than the 5.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he's put up this season.

Byung-Hyun Kim got touched up for four runs on six hits in five innings in his last start, but I don't completely blame him. Just three days earlier he had pitched two innings in relief and three days before that he had made a nice seven-inning start (which also came just three days after a relief appearance). The home runs in the Bronx that everybody likes to talk about happened because Bob Brenly overworked Kim. The Red Sox either need to keep him in the rotation and only have him start or make him the closer. If they keep asking him to start and relieve, they'll wear him out.

I was worried about the injury to Casey Fossum, but it may actually be good news. It probably means he's not totally to blame for the three awful starts that saw his ERA skyrocket from 4.07 to 5.86. Hopefully it's nothing serious and he'll be able to be back pitching effectively soon. In the meantime, Ryan Rupe provided a nice boost last night. He allowed three runs (only one earned) on eight hits and no walks with four strikeouts in six innings. He definitely deserves another start, so hopefully Grady Little will give him one.

Almost lost in Pedro's return was the nice performance by John Burkett. He allowed one run on eight hits and a walk with four strikeouts in six innings. As nice as that was to see, however, I'd still rather have Rupe taking a regular turn in the rotation than Burkett.

Bullpen

The good news is that Ramiro Mendoza is gone for at least two weeks (hopefully longer). The bad news is that there's still no really great reliever in the bullpen.

Mike Timlin has probably been with best with a 3.55 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP thanks to just two walks in 38.1 innings. Brandon Lyon has been lights out as a closer and very hittable at all other times. When he's pitching with a save opportunity, Lyon has a 1.29 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP with five strikeouts and no walks in seven innings. The rest of the time, he has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP with 22 strikeouts and 11 walks in 25.2 innings.

I still like Alan Embree even though he's been pretty inconsistent, but I could pretty much do without the rest of the guys in the bullpen. The Red Sox seem to be part of every rumor involving a closer, so maybe they'll bring in a quality reliever or two pretty soon.

The Lineup

Catcher - Jason Varitek has been unbelievable the last week, hitting .455 with a .556 OBP and a .955 SLG. For the season, he's hitting .297/.368/.547 (.914 OPS). Doug Mirabelli still isn't hitting (.677 OPS), but as long as Grady Little is willing to pinch-hit with Varitek in important spots late in games, I don't have a problem with Mirabelli getting a start every fifth game.

First Base - Kevin Millar has gone on another tear recently. He's now hitting .303/.368/.525 (.893) with 10 home runs and 44 RBI. Millar's been one of the top four offensive first basemen in the AL, so who cares if he doesn't play great defense?

Second Base - Todd Walker has slipped a little bit, but he's still hitting .311/.356/.426 (.783), which makes him the fifth-best offensive second baseman in the AL. You want Rey Sanchez instead? How about Jose Offerman? I wish everybody would stop complaining about Walker's defense and be happy that our second sacker doesn't suck anymore.

Third Base - It's not at all surprising that Bill Mueller has seen his numbers slip recently because he was playing out of his mind. He's still hitting .344/.403/.550 (.953), but he doesn't belong at the top of the order anymore. Hopefully, his OBP will settle in around the .370 mark he's posted for his career, and I certainly wouldn't mind if he showed a little more power than he has in the past. But whatever he does, he's better to have than Shea Hillenbrand.

Shortstop - Which shortstop has the best OPS in the AL? It's not Alex Rodriguez, it's Nomar Garciaparra. The strange thing is that Rodriguez plays in a better hitting park, but Garciaparra has a more extreme home/road split. Nomar has a 1.136 OPS at home and a .770 OPS on the road. Rodriguez has a .973 OPS at home and a .902 OPS on the road.

Right now, Garciaparra is hitting the ball as well as he ever has in his career. He's in a bit of a home run drought (none in his last 16 games), but he has seven triples in his last 12 games and 11 on the season. I know it's early, but I'd say Nomar has a pretty good shot at bringing home his third batting title.

Left Field - Pitchers are just plain scared of Manny Ramirez right now, and I don't blame him. He's drawn 11 walks in the last six games, but he's taken advantage of the 18 times he's been allowed to hit the ball with two singles, a double and three homers. For the season, he's hitting .324/.427/.576 (1.002). If Manny and Nomar both keep playing this well, they'll probably end up hurting each other's MVP chances.

Center Field - It was nice to see Johnny Damon hit a home run that ended up being the winning run last night, but he's really struggling this year. He's hitting just .246/.316/.408 (.724). I guess when the rest of the team is hitting this well, you can afford to carry a good-field/no-hit centerfielder, but he shouldn't be at the top of the order anymore.

Right Field - Thursday night's dreadful performance aside, Trot Nixon has been huge for the Red Sox this year. He's hitting .303/.385/.521 and I think he's the best candidate to lead off, at least against righties (he's hitting .336/.418/.562 against righthanders). His .418 OBP versus righties would be followed by Walker's .396 OBP against righties. Then Nomar would bat third with a .592 SLG against righties followed by Manny's .600 SLG versus righties.

Designated Hitter - David Ortiz has been unstoppable since the beginning of May and it's pretty clear that he should be playing pretty much every day right now. He's hitting .316/.382/.515 (.896) for the season even when you factor in his horrible April. Jeremy Giambi has been a major disappointment, but I can't complain about that. Theo Epstein made five big acquisitions on offense (Millar, Walker, Mueller, Ortiz and Giambi) and if only one of them doesn't work out, that's pretty good. Especially since he didn't have to break the bank for any of them (anybody still wish we had landed Edgardo Alfonzo?).

Summary

The Red Sox offense is ridiculously good. Boston's on pace to score 1,014 runs, so they just need to get some pitchers who can help prevent other teams from scoring 850 runs against us and the Red Sox should win around 95 games. If the Red Sox give up less than 800 runs this season (they're on pace to give up 909), then they're a lock to make the playoffs.

TLR, certified genius

I normally don't write too much about the Red Sox during the week because I devote an entire post to them every Saturday, but I have to talk about last night's game. For anybody who wonders why Tony LaRussa thinks so highly of himself, last night's game is the perfect example.

The game was going well enough for the Cardinals for the first eight innings. Garrett Stephenson shut the Red Sox out for the first seven innings despite walking six batters. Jason Isringhausen then pitched a scoreless eighth inning despite allowing two hits.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals had scored three runs in the first eight innings to take a 3-0 lead into what they hoped would be the final frame. That's when things get interesting.

Cal Eldred walks Jeremy Giambi to start the inning and Jason Varitek follows with a pinch-hit two-run homer. After Johnny Damon grounds out, Todd Walker singles and is replaced on the basepaths by Damian Jackson, who steals second base. Nomar Garciaparra then triples -- his seventh triple in the last 11 games -- to tie the game and set LaRussa's whirring intellect all atwitter.

It's a difficult situation. A runner on third, one out, game tied, the team's best hitter at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. I completely agree with the decision to intentionally walk Manny Ramirez. First, there's a very good chance that he would win the game if you gave him a chance to. Second, even if he didn't you'd have to answer a ton of questions about why you're an idiot.

Once Manny's on first though, there are several ways to get out of the inning. A double play would be the easiest way. A strikeout (or a popup on the infield or a line drive to an infielder) and then another out would also do the trick.

Kevin Millar, the man on deck, has some propensity for striking out (39 so far this season) and has grounded into five double plays this year. What's more, the man after Millar, Trot Nixon, has a .388 OBP, which is the only stat that matters when the bases are loaded.

Ah, but TLR, certified genius, knows that Nixon does not do so well against lefties. So he walks Millar to loads the bases and brings in Steve Kline, who had walked 15 batters in 25.1 innings before last night, to face Nixon. Kline gets Nixon to foul out to first base and then Bill Mueller flies out to end the inning.

In the top of the 10th, Edgar Renteria singles with one out, bringing Kline up to bat. At first I thought nothing of a pitcher having to bat because it was an interleague game, but then I remembered that it was played at Fenway so I went to check it out. TLR, certified genius, had lost his DH by moving Jim Edmonds into left field to start the eighth inning. No matter, J.D. Drew comes off the bench and smacks a two-run homer to give the Cardinals the lead again.

On to the bottom of the 10th, where Jeff Fassero gets the first two outs before things get interesting. Damon reaches on a bunt single to keep the inning alive and David Ortiz drives him in with a pinch-hit double. Garciaparra then singles to tie the game for the second straight inning.

Now there's a very different situation facing TLR, certified genius. The game is tied (again) and the other team's best hitter is at the plate (again), but this time the runner is on second and there are two outs. TLR, certified genius, intentionally walks Ramirez (as he should) and then decides to pitch to Millar (as he also probably should). However, once the count goes to 2-1, he decides to intentionally walk Millar and face Nixon with the bases loaded (again) and a lefty on the mound (again). Nixon (who stranded 12 runners in the game) grounds into a fielder's choice to end the inning.

Fast forward to the 13th, when Kerry Robinson singles to lead off the inning. TLR, certified genius, has already forgotten that the Red Sox came back from multiple-run deficits in the ninth and 10th innings and decides he needs just one run, so he orders a sacrifice bunt.

Now, there are a couple of extra interesting things about this sacrifice bunt. First, the player sacrificing is the leadoff hitter. Second, the leadoff hitter is Miguel Cairo, who has a career .319 OBP and just a .295 OBP this season.

After Orlando Palmeiro grounds out to put Robinson on third base with two outs, Grady Little decides that he is also a certified genius. He orders an intentional walk for Albert Pujols (1.175 OPS before the game) so that Ramiro Mendoza can face Edmonds (1.045 OPS before the game).

Edmonds hits a three-run homer and TLR, certified genius, starts sniggering, "Stupid bastard, doesn't even know when to walk the bases loaded."

So they go to the bottom of the 13th and Ramirez leads off with his fifth walk of the game. Millar then singles and Nixon also singles to drive in Ramirez. With runners at the corners and nobody out, Mueller grounds into a double play to make it 8-7 with two outs and the bases empty.

Ah, but the game is not yet over. Giambi draws a walk and moved to second on a wild pitch, at which point TLR, certified genius, decides that another intentional walk (his team's fifth of the game) is in order. Esteban Yan gives Varitek a free pass down to first and then gets Damon to fly out to end the game.

For this one game, the Red Sox batted .260/.422/.400 (.822 OPS), but they left 18 men on base and scored just seven runs. The Cardinals batted .269/.339/.480 (.820) and scored eight runs, leaving just 12 men on base.

After the game TLR, certified genius, and Grady Little played poker and TLR, certified genius, won a large sum of money by successfully drawing to an inside straight 10 times in a row. After the poker game, TLR, certified genius, said, "It's not a question of drawing something. It's a question of picking which card you want to win the game for you."

Youth movement

Of the 30 starting pitchers to take the mound yesterday, 18 of them were 26 years old or younger. I'm not sure if that's really a lot for any given day, but it seemed like it to me and I got the urge to take a look at each and every one of them (by the way, this post is rather late today because it took me over four hours to do all the research for this. Sometimes it's best to ignore your urges...). Anyway, I'm going to look at the players in the order that I would pick them if I were drafting for my real-life team today.

Roy Oswalt (25 years old) pitched just one inning before leaving with an injury. For the season, he has a 3.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP with 71 strikeouts (8.67 K/9IP) and 20 walks (3.55 K/BB) in 73.2 innings.

Last year, he posted a 3.01 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 208 strikeouts (8.03 K/9IP) and 62 walks (3.35 K/BB) in 233 innings. He had a 2.73 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 144 strikeouts (9.15 K/IP) and 24 walks (6 K/BB) in 141.2 innings in 2001 and would have won the Rookie of the Year Award if not for some Cardinals hitter I'm always talking about.

Give Houston credit for promoting him from New Orleans early in 2001. He had a 4.35 ERA in 31 innings, but they saw the more important fact that he had 34 strikeouts and just six walks.

Roy Halladay (26) allowed one run on eight hits and a walk with nine strikeouts in eight innings to win his ninth straight start and improve to 9-2. He has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 85 strikeouts (7.22 K/9IP) and 17 walks (5 K/BB) in 106 innings.

Last year, Halladay busted out with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 168 strikeouts (6.32 K/9IP) and 62 walks (2.71 K/BB) in 239.1 innings. Despite having an ERA nearly a run higher than last year, Halladay is actually pitching better this year as he's improved his strikeout and walk rates.

Halladay got his first taste of the majors in 1998, when he posted a 1.92 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with 13 strikeouts and two walks in 14 innings for the Blue Jays. The next year he had a nice 3.91 ERA in 149.1 innings for Toronto, but he was not really that good. His WHIP was 1.57 and he had 82 strikeouts (4.94 K/9IP) and 79 walks (1.04 K/BB). The next season he fell apart, posting a 10.64 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP with 44 strikeouts (5.85 K/9IP) and 42 walks (1.05 K/BB) in 67.2 innings for Toronto and a 5.50 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with 38 strikeouts (4.64 K/9IP) and 21 walks (1.81 K/BB) in 73.2 innings at Class AAA Syracuse.

He went all the way back to Class A in 2001 and worked his way back to the majors. He had a 2.93 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 57 strikeouts (7.26 K/9IP) and 9 walks (6.33 K/BB) in his 70.2 innings in the minors. He then posted a 3.16 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP with 96 strikeouts (8.20 K/9IP) and 25 walks (3.84 K/BB) in 105.1 innings for Toronto.

People seemed to think he just remembered how good he was, but he hadn't really been that good before. In 278.2 innings in Class AA and AAA before he reached the majors for the first time in 1998, Halladay had a 4.36 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with 165 strikeouts (5.33 K/9IP) and 117 walks (1.41 K/BB). His story is remarkable because he reached the majors when he didn't really deserve to, got hammered, went all the way back to the beginning and turned into a great pitcher.

Joel Pineiro (24) allowed two runs on six hits and two walks with three strikeouts in 7.1 innings, but lost to fall to 5-5 on the season. He has a 3.88 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with 60 strikeouts (6.30 K/9IP) and 37 walks (1.62 K/BB) in 85.2 innings.

Last year, he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 136 strikeouts (6.30 K/9IP) and 54 walks (2.52 K/BB) in 194.1 innings. He took the majors by storm in 2001 when he had a 2.03 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with 56 strikeouts (6.69 K/9IP) and 21 walks (2.67 K/BB) in 75.1 innings.

Before getting called up that year, Pineiro had a 3.62 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 64 strikeouts (7.48 K/9IP) and 33 walks (1.94 K/BB) in 77 innings at Class AA Tacoma. Pineiro obviously wasn't good enough to keep doing what he did in 2001 for Seattle, but he's better than what he's doing this year. His strikeout rates have been pretty constant, but he's walking more people this year than he has in the past. Once he fixes that he should be about as good as he was last year.

Kyle Lohse (24) allowed one run on six hits and a walk with seven strikeouts in six innings to pick up the win and improve to 6-4. He has a 2.91 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 65 strikeouts (6.52 K/9IP) and 18 walks (3.61 K/BB) in 89.2 innings.

Last year, he had a 4.23 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP with 124 strikeouts (6.18 K/9IP) and 70 walks (1.77 K/BB) in
180.2 innings. In 2001, he went from Class AA -- where he had a 2.37 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP with 32 strikeouts and four walks in 38 innigns -- to the majors -- where he had a 5.68 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP with 64 strikeouts (6.38 K/9IP) and 29 walks (2.21 K/BB) in 90.1 innings. His strikeout rates haven't really changed, but improved control has turned him into a much better pitcher this year than he was in the past.

Jesse Foppert (22) allowed a run on one hit and five walks with 10 strikeouts in 7.1 innings to get the win and improve to 4-5. He has a 4.17 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP with 54 strikeouts (8.06 K/9IP) and 39 walks (1.38 K/BB) in 60.1 innings.

Last year, he started the year in Class AA Shreveport, where he had a 2.79 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 74 strikeouts (10.86 K/9IP) and 21 walks (3.52 K/BB) in 61.1 innings. He then had a 3.99 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 109 strikeouts (12.42 K/9IP) and 35 walks (3.11 K/BB) in 79 innings at Class AAA Fresno.

He clearly has tremendous stuff, but he's going to need his control to be consistently successful.

Adam Eaton (25) allowed three rnus on six hits and three walks with one strikeout in eight innings, but lost to fall to 2-5. he has a 4.47 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with 64 strikeouts (7.96 K/9IP) and 28 walks (2.29 K/BB) in 72.1 innings.

Eaton pitched just 59 innings at three levels last year as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. In 2001, he had a 4.32 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 109 strikeouts (8.41 K/9IP) and a40 walks (2.73 K/BB) in 116.2 innings for the Padres before he got hurt. The year before he had a 4.13 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with 90 strikeouts (6 K/9IP) and 61 walks (1.48 K/BB) in 135 innings for San Diego.

Eaton had made a monumental improvement from 2000 to 2001 -- although his ERA didn't reflect it -- and he seems to be getting back on the track he was following before he hurt himself.

Dontrelle Willis (21) alowed three runs on eight hits and a walk with five strikeouts in 6.2 innings to win and improve to 5-1. He has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP with 43 strikeouts (9.07 K/9IP) and 16 walks (2.69 K/BB) for the Marlins.

He started this season in Class AA, where he had a 1.49 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP with 32 strikeouts (7.93 K/9IP) and nine walks (3.56 K/BB) in 36.1 innings for Carolina. Last year, he had a 1.83 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP with 101 strikeouts (7.12 K/9IP) and 21 walks (4.81 K/BB) in 127.2 innings for Class A Kane County.

This kid looks like a special pitcher and I can't wait to get a chance to see him pitch because he apparently has a funky delivery.

C.C. Sabathia (22) allowed two runs on 10 hits and no walks with four strikeouts in 7.2 innings to win and improve to 5-3. He has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP with 52 strikeouts (5.57 K/9IP) and 27 walks (1.93 K/BB) in 84 innings.

Last year, he had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP with 149 strikeouts (6.39 K/9IP) and 88 walks (1.69 K/BB) in 210 innings. In his rookie season for the Indians, Sabathia had a 4.39 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with 171 strikeouts (8.53 K/9IP) and 95 walks (1.8 K/BB) in 180.1 innings.

There are two big worries here: Sabathia is mammoth (his weight is listed at 290) and his strikeout rates keep dropping. The good sign is that his walk rates are dropping too, and he's actually striking out more batters per walk this year than two years ago despite striking out many fewer batters per nine innings.

Brett Myers (22) allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks with two strikeouts in 5.2 innings to lose and fall to 5-6. He has a 3.54 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with 59 strikeouts (6.53 K/9IP) and 32 walks (1.84 K/BB) in 81.1 innings.

Myers had a 4.25 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP with 34 strikeouts (4.25 K/9IP) and 29 walks (1.17 K/BB) in 72 innings for the Phillies last year after getting called up. In 128 innings for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre before that, he had a 3.59 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 97 strikeouts (6.82 K/9IP) and 20 walks (4.85 K/BB).

His strikeout rate wasn't great in AAA, so it wouldn't have been too surprising if it had fallen off the map in the majors. He seems to have gotten it back up to a respectable level, though, and he had good control in the minors.

Mark Buehrle (24) allowed eight runs on six hits and three walks with four strikeouts in 4.1 innings to lose and fall to 2-10. He has a 5.18 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP with 44 strikeouts (4.38 K/9IP) and 34 walks (1.29 K/BB) in 90.1 innings.

Last year, Buehrle probably would have been near the top of this list of pitchers if you were trying to pick the best one. He had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with 134 strikeouts (5.05 K/9IP) and 61 walks (2.20 K/BB) in 239 innings. In his rookie season, he had a 3.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 126 strikeouts (5.12 K/9IP) and 48 walks (2.63 K/BB) in 221.1 innings.

Buehrle was walking a dangerous line to begin with since he didn't strike anybody out. This year, however, his strikeouts have fallen and his walks have gone up, making it impossible for him to succeed. He's still young and he's been successful without good stuff, so maybe he can get it turned around.

Andrew Good (23) allowed two runs (none earned) on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts in six innings to win and improve to 3-1. He has a 4.07 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with 22 strikeouts (4.71 K/9IP) and 10 walks (2.20 K/BB) in 42 innings for the Diamondbacks.

He started the season in Class AAA Tucson, where he had a 4.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and eight walks in 19.1 innings. Last year, he had a 3.54 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 128 strikeouts (6.47 K/9IP) and 26 walks (4.92 K/BB) in 178 innings at Class AA El Paso.

He doesn't seem to have overpowering stuff, but he doesn't give out many free passes. He'll need to continue to have very good control or else he'll probably get hit very hard.

Horacio Ramirez (23) allowed five runs on nine hits and two walks with one strikeout in 5.2 innings, but he got the win to improve to 5-2. He has a 4.38 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP with 33 strikeouts (4.52 K/9IP) and 29 walks (1.14 K/BB) in 65.2 innings for the Braves.

Last year, he had a 3.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 64 strikeouts (6.26 K/9IP) and 32 walks (2 K/BB) in 92 innings for Class AA Greenville. His strikeout and walk rates in 343 Class A innings were pretty similar to what he did in AA.

Ramirez doesn't really look that impressive and he probably could have used a season at AAA, but he's still young and he's got some great teachers.

Jae Seo (26) allowed two runs on eight hits and a walk with six strikeouts in seven innings to win and go to 4-2. He has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP with 42 strikeouts (4.65 K/9IP) and 17 walks (2.47 K/BB) in 81.1 innings for the Mets.

Last year, he had a 3.99 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP with 87 strikeouts (6.09 K/9IP) and 22 walks (3.95 K/BB) in 128.2 innings for Class AAA Norfolk.

I thought hard about ranking Seo ahead of Ramirez. Seo seems to have better control and he's putting up better numbers right now, but neither of them looks that impressive and Ramirez is three years younger.

Jeff Weaver (26) allowed five runs on 10 hits and a walk with two strikeouts in 6.1 innings to lose and fall to 3-5. He has a 5.44 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP with 46 strikeouts (5.33 K/9IP) and 23 walks (2 K/BB) in 77.2 innings for the Yankees.

I was always under the impression that Weaver had great stuff and struck a lot of people out but had bad control, but that's just not true. Here are his K/9IP numbers for his first four years in the big leagues in order: 6.27, 6.12, 5.97, 5.95. It wasn't very good to begin with and it had gone down every year.

Weaver probably suffers from the fact that he was never given a chance to develop. He only pitched 36.1 innings in the minor leagues and he struck out 49 and walked two. Had he been given a chance to grow as a pitcher, he may have turned into a strikeout machine, who knows.

I don't think Weaver will ever be very good at this point, but he is getting very unlucky. His strikeout and walk rates are at their worst ever, but they're still within reach of his previous marks and his home run rate is the lowest it's been. Despite that, he's allowing 1.31 hits per inning and the worst he's ever done before is to allow 1.08 hits per inning.

Dewon Brazelton (22) allowed six runs on six hits and five walks with one strikeout in five innings and got a no decision. He has a 6.74 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP with 22 strikeouts (4.64 K/9IP) and 17 walks (1.29 K/BB) in 42.2 innings.

He started the year at Class AAA Durham, where he had a 4.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP with 18 strikeouts (6.31 K/9IP) and 11 walks (1.64 K/BB) in 25.2 innings. Last year, he had a 3.33 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 109 strikeouts (6.72 K/9IP) and 67 walks (1.63 K/BB) in 146 innings at Class AA Orlando.

I don't really have anything good to say about Brazelton except for the fact that I like him better than the other three pitchers who are left.

Adam Bernero (26) allowed three runs on four hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in 7.2 innings, but lost and fell to 1-8. He has a 5.26 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP with 47 strikeouts (5.27 K/9IP) and 31 walks (1.52 K/BB) in 80.1 innings for the Tigers.

Last year, he had a 6.20 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP with 69 strikeouts (6.11 K/9IP) and 31 walks (2.23 K/BB) in 101.2 innings for Detroit. In his AAA career, he had a 3.78 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 185 strikeouts (6.81 K/9IP) and 77 walks (2.40 K/BB) in 244.2 innings.

He could probably be useful as a fifth or maybe a fourth pitcher, but that's about it. With the Tigers he'll definitely make a run at 20 losses.

Victor Santos (26) allowed five runs on seven hits and a walk with three strikeouts in 4.2 innings to lose in his first decision of the year. He has an 8.37 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP with eight strikeouts and three walks in 9.2 innings for Texas.

He started the season at Class AAA Oklahoma, where he had a 2.96 ERA and a1.29 WHIP with 46 strikeouts (5.91 K/9IP) and 20 walks (2.3 K/BB) in 70 innings. Before this season, he had averaged 8.78 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.39 strikeouts per walk in 174.1 innings at Class AAA. That would indicate he has some value, but those innings were pretty spread out and he's old to just be getting to the majors.

Aaron Cook (24) allowed six runs on 11 hits and three walks with two strikeouts in four innings to lose and fall to 2-6. He has a 5.75 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP with 25 strikeouts (3.20 K/9IP) and 35 walks (0.71 K/BB) in 70.1 innings for the Rockies.

Those strikeout and walk numbers look like a joke, but their not a fluke at all. He had 4.54 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP with 14 strikeouts (3.53 K/9IP) and 13 walks (1.08 K/BB) in 35.2 innings for the Rockies. He also spent 159.1 innings not being very good in the minor leagues last year.

So that's all 18 of them. If you found that at all even mildly interesting, please let me know. I spent a ton of time working on this and I'd love to know if people found it interesting.

No-no not a surprise

Rob Neyer writes that we shouldn't be surprised that the Yankees were no-hit last night because they don't have a good team batting average. Rob's argument wasn't that we should have expected this particular Yankees team to be on the receiving end of a no-hitter, but that we shouldn't be real shocked now that it's happened.

Similarly, we should never have expected a six-pitcher no-hitter to happen. However, now that it has, we shouldn't be surprised that this Astros team was the one that did it.

The Astros staff has pitched 587 innings this season. The Astros relievers have pitched 241.1 of those innings, or 41.1 percent. As a group, Houston's relievers are 20-7 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP averaging 8.09 strikeouts per nine innings.

If your ace starting pitcher did that in a season, you'd say thank you very much and give him a 15-million-dollar-a-year contract.

How do the other teams compare with the Astros in terms of percent of innings pitched by the bullpen?

Well, the vast majority of teams (18 out of 30) have used their relievers to pitch somewhere between 31.5 and 36.5 percent of the innings. Seven teams have used their relievers less than 30 percent of the time. Only three teams -- Houston, Texas and Tampa Bay -- have used their relievers more than 40 percent of the time.

Tampa Bay has pitched 558.1 innings and the bullpen has pitched 236.1 of those innings (42.3 percent). The Devil Rays relievers have a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, but are averaging just 5.83 strikeouts per nine innings. They've allowed 216 hits in those 236.1 innings compared to Houston's relievers allowing 191 hits in 244.1 innings.

Texas has pitched 553.1 innings and it's bullpen has pitched 244.1 of those innings (44.1 percent). The Rangers relievers have a 5.30 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP with 7.66 strikeouts per nine innings. They've allowed an astounding 272 hits.

The Astros have relied on their bullpen more heavily than any other team (Tampa Bay and Texas would be awful whether they used their bullpen so much or not), so it's fitting that they relied on their bullpen for this no-hitter more than any other team ever has.

What a ballgame

In case you missed it, the Houston Astros just no-hit the New York Yankees in about the strangest way possible. Six pitchers combined on the no-hitter, the first time in major-league history that more than four hitters have combined for a no-hitter.

The Yankees had not been no-hit since Hoyt Wilhelm did it to them in 1958. That was the longest streak any team in the majors had without being no-hit. This no-hitter happened at Yankee Stadium and the last no-hitter at the Stadium was thrown by Virgil Trucks in 1952. The Yankees were also a part of the only other interleague no-hitter, David Cone's perfect game against Montreal on July 18, 1998.

Lance Berkman was the position player hero for the Astros. He hit a two-run homer in the third inning and he made a nifty diving catch on an Alfonso Soriano line drive to rob the Yankees of their best chance at a hit.

But this game was obiously about the pitchers and they were, in order: Roy Oswalt, Pete Munro, Kirk Saarloos, Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner.

Oswalt set the Yankees down in order in the first, striking out Derek Jeter and Jason Giambi. But he aggravated his groin on his second pitch to Jorge Posada leading off the second and had to leave the game. Munro came in and walked Posada, but retired the next three Yankees in order.

Munro got the first two batters in the third and should have set down the side in order, but Soriano reached on an error. Munro then walked Jeter and hit Giambi to load the bases. He then threw three straight balls to Posada. With the bases loaded and two outs and a 3-0 count, Posada grounded weakly to first base to end the inning.

Munro got the first two batters out in the fourth before walking Todd Zeile and being replaced by Saarloos, who got the final out of the inning. Saarloos then got the side in order in the fifth, thanks in part to Berkman's diving catch.

Lidge then came in and pitched two perfect innings and was credited with the win. Since the starter left after one inning and the Yankees already had the lead by then, the official scorer could choose to award the win to the reliever he thought was most effective. That's kind of picking nits when none of them gave up a hit, but Lidge worked longer than anybody besides Munro and Munro allowed four baserunners (three walks and a hit batter).

After Lidge finished toying with the Yankees by striking out the final two hitters in the seventh, Dotel came in and struck out four batters in the eighth inning with Soriano reaching on a wild pitch. So not only were the Yankees in danger of being no-hit, they were in danger of having their final nine hitters be unable to even put the ball in play.

Sure enough, Wagner struck out the first two batters in the ninth before Hideki Matsui grounded out to first to end the game.

Here are the lines for the Houston pitchers (IP, H, R, BB, K):

Oswalt - 1, 0, 0, 0, 2
Munro - 2.2, 0, 0, 3, 2
Saarloos - 1.1, 0, 0, 0, 1
Lidge - 2, 0, 0, 0, 2
Dotel - 1, 0, 0, 0, 4
Wagner - 1, 0, 0, 0, 2

So the Yankees drew three walks and struck out 13 times. The Astros scored eight runs on 14 hits and two walks and struck out four times.

I'm sure Lee Sinins will argue that it was pointless to bring in Wagner with an 8-0 lead to close out the no-hitter because this game was no more special than a four-hit, no walk, no hit-batter game. I don't have a problem with it because no-hitters are special even if they are overvalued.

That said, it would have been stupid had Wagner not been rested. But he was fairly rested, having not pitched the previous two days.

I was flipping between the Red Sox game and the Yankees game, so I didn't see the entire no-hitter. I clicked over to the Yankees game just in time to see Oswalt get taken out with the Yankees down 2-0 and thought to myself, "Great, the Yankees catch a break with Houston's best pitcher on the mound."

I flipped back over after the second inning had ended and noted to myself that the Yankees hadn't gotten a hit off Oswalt's replacement and then I flipped back to the Red Sox game. I turned back to the Yankees game in time to see Posada ground out, but I immediately flipped back to the Red Sox game. I hadn't heard the announcers say how the bases had gotten loaded, so I assumed the Yankees had gotten a hit and I didn't check back again until after the sixth inning. Obviously, I kept a close eye on the game from then on.

I was rooting for the no-hitter, but not out of any special hatred for the Yankees. The Yankees were going to lose anyway, and that's all I need to be happy (aside from a Red Sox win, of course). I just happen to like no-hitters, except when Boston's on the receiving end. Of course, the fact that I'm not particularly giddy about the Yankees getting no-hit didn't prevent me from ribbing my best friend (who's a Yankees fan) about it.

Anyway, if you were taping that game for some reason, make sure you keep the tape. It's a feat we won't likely see duplicated and people may not believe you in 15-20 years when you tell them about it.

Not cutting it

I knew the Cleveland Indians did not have a good offense, but I didn't have any idea how bad the bottom of their lineup is until yesterday.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips, who was the biggest part of the package Cleveland received for Bartolo Colon, is hitting .201 with a .237 OBP and a .312 SLG with four homers and only three steals in five attempts in 57 games.

Last year, Phillips played 65 games at AAA, hitting .279/.318/.453 with nine home runs between Ottawa and Buffalo. He had started the year hitting .327/.380/.506 in 60 games for Class AA Harrisburg and finished it hitting .258/.343/.419 in 11 games with the Indians.

In 2001, Phillips had an .842 OPS in 55 games for Class A Jupiter and a .756 OPS in 67 games for Harrisburg.

Clearly the Indians were expecting more than a .550 OPS from Phillips this season. Luckily, he does not turn 22 until the same day my girlfriend does (June 28th) and most players his age are still in the minors. So, while he's hurting the offense this year, it doesn't mean he won't develop into a fine player (and it's not like the Indians were going to win anything anyway).

The other culprit is catcher Josh Bard, who is hitting .216/.269/.316 with three home runs in 49 games.

Last year, Bard hit .297/.332/.436 with six home runs in 94 games with Class AAA Buffalo before getting called up to Cleveland, where he hit .222/.255/.378 with three homers in 24 games. In 2001, he hit .270/.346/.393 with five home runs in 86 games between two Class AA teams.

Bard's performance isn't really that much of a concern for the Indians though. He's just keeping the position warm for Victor Martinez, who is hitting .291/.375/.408 with four home runs in 58 games for Buffalo this season.

Martinez was the MVP of the Class AA Eastern League for Akron last year, hitting .336/.417/.576 with 40 doubles and 22 home runs. In 2001, he was the MVP of the Class A Carolina League for Kingston.

Looking at Phillips and Bard made me wonder how bad the hitters on all the other teams are. So, here's a list of the players with the worst OPS for each team (minimum 150 at-bats). I've listed every player who has an OPS under .600 in at least 150 at-bats. (Sorry for the lack of links for the players, I don't have that much free time right now).

ANA: David Eckstein - .651
ARI: Tony Womack - .572
ATL: Vinny Castilla - .753
BAL: Gary Matthews Jr. - .577
BOS: Johnny Damon - .704
CHC: Mark Grudzielanek - .722 (Damian Miller has a .666 OPS in 145 at-bats)
CWS: Paul Konerko - .557, Joe Crede - .588
CIN: Felipe Lopez - .603
CLE: Brandon Phillips - .550, Josh Bard - .585
COL: Jose Hernandez - .692
DET: Brandon Inge - .519, Omar Infante - .527, Ramon Santiago - .576
FLA: Juan Pierre - .679
HOU: Brad Ausmus - .539
KC: Ken Harvey - .642
LA: Cesar Izturis - .584
MIL: Royce Clayton - .679
MIN: Luis Rivas - .625
MON: Fernando Tatis - .565
NYM: Roger Cedeno - .681 (only four Mets have at least 150 at-bats)
NYY: Hideki Matsui - .755
OAK: Mark Ellis - .683
PHI: David Bell - .562
PIT: Jack Wilson - .651
SD: Mark Kotsay - .688
SF: Edgardo Alfonzo - .628
SEA: Jeff Cirillo - .669
STL: Mike Matheny - .696
TB: Carl Crawford - .636
TEX: Mark Teixeira - .801 (Einar Diaz has a .629 OPS in 144 at-bats)
TOR: Eric Hinske - .709

Seeing that list makes me think of several questions.

How much is Jose Hernandez's departure from Milwaukee and arrival in Colorado hurting both teams?

Is this really the same Fernando Tatis whose OPS in each of his three seasons with St. Louis (two partial years and one full one) was above .870?

Does Jose Hernandez look at Jeff Cirillo and wonder if he'll end up the same way?

Does anybody in Florida realize that they're going out of their way to give their worst hitter the most plate appearances? Does anybody in Florida have a clue about anything?

How happy am I that the Red Sox did not get Edgardo Alfonzo?

What happened to Paul Konerko (.844-.863 OPS the last four years) and Joe Crede (.826 OPS in 53 games last year)?

Remember when I said not to give up on Mark Teixeira this season?

Remember when Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli and Josh Hamilton were going to be the best outfield in baseball in five years? Well, one out of three ain't bad, or something like that.

Do the Tigers really have three hitters with an OPS below .600? Yes, and they only have one hitter with an OPS above .705 (Dmitri Young).

Now do the Reds realize why Toronto gave them Felipe Lopez?

Is anybody really that surprised by David Eckstein this season?

Can somebody break Tony Womack's knee to stop Arizone from throwing away at-bats?

Is Hideki Matsui the ugliest player in baseball?

Okay, so that last one had nothing to do with performance. Just so that you don't have to do the legwork yourself, here's the breakdown of worst player on a team by position: seven shortstops, seven outfielders, six third basemen, four second basemen, three catchers, two first basemen and one designated hitter. If you count Miller and Diaz as the worst on their team, then it would be five catchers, three second basemen and one first baseman.

Welcome to the Show

As most of you probably know, two of the best prospects in baseball just got called up the major leagues. Both of them made their big-league debuts yesterday, and both of them got a hit in their first big-league at-bat.

Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau went 2-for-4 with two singles. Morneau is 22 years old and was leading the minors in home runs.

New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes also went 2-for-4, but he had a single and a double and scored two runs. Reyes turned 20 years old today, so he technically made his big-league debut at age 19.

Here's what Baseball America had to say about them getting called up. Meanwhile, Aaron Gleeman thinks that Morneau could be Minnesota's first feared slugger since Harmon Killebrew.

When he's bad, he's really bad

Danyz Baez pitched a scoreless ninth inning last night to pick up his 13th save and drop his ERA to 3.90 and his WHIP to 1.13. Big deal, right?

Well, it's more of a big deal when you consider that he was 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA on April 27th.

Baez had started the season off well enough, converting his first three save opportunities. He didn't allow an earned run in his first seven appearances, and he had a 0.00 ERA and a 0.35 WHIP with seven strikeouts in his first 8.2 innings pitched.

In his next appearance, Baez gave up a run in 1.2 innings, blew the save (by allowing another relievers runners to score) and got tagged with the loss. In the following appearance, he gave up a run in one inning (his run allowed in each appearance came on a home run). Next, Baez allowed five runs on three hits and two walks without getting a single out. He followed that up by allowing a run in two-thirds of an innings on April 27th.

Since then, Baez has pitched 18 innings with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with 18 strikeouts. But even that's misleading.

You see, Baez had another implosion on May 18th. He allowed five earned runs on five hits in one-third of an inning.

Before that game, he had made eight straight scoreless appearances, allowing four hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 8.2 innings. Since May 18th, he's made nine straight scoreless one-inning appearances. In those nine innings, he's allowed four hits and two walks with nine strikeouts.

So Baez looks like a reliever with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 29 games. Really, however, he has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP with 25 strikeouts in 24 of his appearances (26.1 innings) and he's 0-4 with a 31.91 ERA and a 4.64 WHIP in his other five appearances (3.2 innings).

NL All-Stars

I know that yesterday I promised to look at the NL players leading the All-Star voting and say whether or not the fans are doing a good job, but I'm feeling lazy right. Since Aaron Gleeman posted the All-Star teams that he would pick in his post today and I pretty much agree with him, you can head over there to see who should be starting for the NL.

The fans have made three big mistakes in my opinion.

Jeff Bagwell leads the voting at first base, even though he's dropped off after a fantastic start to the season. Bagwell posted a 1.037 OPS in April, but slumped to a .638 OPS in May. For the season, he's hitting .283/.366/.463 (.829 OPS) with 11 home runs and just 25 RBI (I don't think RBI are that important, but it says something when the No. 3 hitter in a pretty good lineup is on pace for just 64 RBI).

As Aaron says, Todd Helton probably deserves to be the starting first baseman, but a strong case could be made for Richie Sexson. Helton has a .985 OPS, but he's struggling on the road like he never has before. He has a 1.173 OPS at home and just a .741 OPS on the road. From 2000-2002, Helton had a 1.212 OPS at Coors Field and a .975 OPS on the road. Sexson is hitting .258/.363/.534 (.897) with 19 home runs.

Ivan Rodriguez has a large lead in the voting at catcher, but does not even come close to deserving that spot. Rodriguez is hitting .245/.338/.402 (.740). He does have 8 steals in 9 attempts, so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Javy Lopez, meanwhile, has a 1.083 OPS. 'Nuff said.

And in the outfield, Sammy Sosa is second in the voting. Forget the fact that Sosa's going to have missed about 25 games by the All-Star break and just look at his stats. He's hitting .288/.406/.481 (.888) with just six homers. Everybody's probably sick of hearing me talk about Albert Pujols, but he definitely deserves to be starting in the outfield this year. He's hitting .392/.450/.722 (1.172) with 16 homers, 52 runs and 51 RBI.

So go out and make a difference. Everybody can vote 25 times, so head on over and get those stiffs out of the starting lineup to make room for some deserving players. Yeah, I know those are three future Hall-of-Famers I'm talking about, but what have you done for me lately?

Apology

First, I'd like to apologize for the lateness of today's post. It took me a lot longer to write than I thought it would and I also had some other stuff I had to do today. Second, I'd like to apologize for the first half of it being posted twice. For some reason right now, when I click post (but not publish) and then go back to edit that post, it won't let me repost it or delete it. I wrote the first half of today's post before I went out to lunch and figured I'd just come back, click edit and finish the post. But after I had finished the post, I noticed the "post and publish" button wasn't there. So, I had to copy everything and paste it into a new post, and I was not able to delete the old post. It seems like every week (and sometimes every day) Blogger comes up with something to piss me off. If I had the time and money, I'd definitely find someplace to put this site besides Blogger.

Losing 300

The other day I received an email from Mike Hunt in Reno, Nevada. I'm always thrilled to get emails from readers (and if you email me, I promise I'll respond), but I'm especially thrilled when it includes something I can turn into a post. Part of Mike's email was the following question:

With Clemens closing in on 300 wins and everyone wondering who will be the next 300 game winner, will there ever be another 300 game loser?

The short answer is no, there won't be. But you didn't come here for short answers, so I'll answer the more interesting question: Will there ever be another player who loses a number of games that is similarly difficult to do as winning 300 games is?

When Mike emailed me, I don't think he had any idea how exclusive the 300-loss club is. It has just two members: Cy Young (316) and Pud Galvin (310). Both men are in the Hall of Fame, and both have also won at least 360 games. Young pitched for 22 seasons and averaged 37 starts a year for his career, while also making about 90 relief apearances in his career. Galvin only pitched for 15 seasons, but he averaged nearly 46 starts a year.

The 300-loss club was formed in 1892 and inducted its final member in 1911. Nolan Ryan made a run at becoming the third member of the club, but fell eight losses short.

The fact that Ryan couldn't make it says a lot about how hard it really is. Ryan pitched for 27 years. He made 773 starts and got the decision in 616 of those starts, thanks in large part to 222 complete games. He was not usually much better than average at preventing runs and more than a handful of times he was actually below average. Finally, he played for some terrible offenses (he pitched for seven teams that were last or second-to-last in runs scored and just two teams that were first or second). And with all of that going for him, Ryan still couldn't reach 300 losses.

So it 300 losses is too lofty a mark, what's a better milestone? Well, there are 21 pitchers in history with at least 230 career losses. When Roger Clemens finally wins another game, there will be 21 pitchers in history with at least 300 wins. I don't like 230 though -- 225 is a much nicer, round number and it only lets in three more people.

So, for the purposes of this discussion, losing 225 games is the historical equivalent of winning 300 games. Of the 24 pitchers who have lost 225 games, 16 of them are in the Hall of Fame and a few others (Tommy John, Jim Kaat and Bert Blyleven at the least) could have convincing arguments made on their behalves. Let's change Mike's question just so we have it there:

Will there ever be another 225-game loser?

When answering a question like this, the first thing to do is to look at the active leaderboard and see who is closest to the mark. In this case, that's not so easy.

You see, Chuck Finley has 173 losses and would be at the top of the list of active players, except that he's not yet active (although Peter Gammons reports that the Red Sox are interested). It probably doesn't matter whether he's active or not though, because he's not worth considering.

Finley is 40 years old and he needs 52 losses to join the club. Even if he signs somewhere within the next two weeks, he's unlikely to lose more than 10 games this season, especially if he signs with a team that has an offense as good as Boston's. For the sake of easy math, let's say Finley has 180 losses at the end of this year. He'd either need to average 15 losses over three more seasons, 11.25 losses over four more seasons, nine more losses over five more seasons or play past his 45th birthday. I don't think I'm the only one who thinks all of those scenarios are very unlikely.

So, who's next on the leaderboard after Finley? Greg Maddux, with 157 losses at age 37. Assuming he gets the 13 losses he's on pace for this season, he'd need to average 21 losses over the next three seasons to reach 230. Obviously, that's not going to happen. Even if Maddux plays six more seasons after this one, he'd need to average more than 10 losses per year.

At age 35, Kevin Appier is the youngest player within 100 losses of 230 (he has exactly 130 right now). Even if he plays into his 40's, which is no sure thing, there's no way he'll get those 100 losses.

Steve Trachsel has 111 losses at age 32. If he finishes this season with 120 losses, he'd need to average 14 losses over the next seven seasons to reach 230. It's possible (and it's possible that he'll play more than seven more seasons), but it would be very tough to do.

Brad Radke has 105 losses at age 30. If he loses 10 games this season (he's on pace to lose 13), he'd be 120 away. All he'd have to do then is average 12 losses a season for 10 years. Piece of cake, right?

So none of the players who already have at least 100 losses look like especially good bets to reach 230 for their career. Radke probably has the best chance, but he'd have to stay healthy for 10 years and get lucky (unlucky?).

How about the young players then? Here are some of the losingest pitchers for their ages:

Javier Vazquez -- 59 losses -- 26 years old
Jeff Weaver -- 58 losses -- 26 years old
Sidney Ponson -- 56 losses -- 26 years old
Ryan Dempster -- 52 losses -- 26 years old
Ben Sheets -- 30 losses -- 24 years old
Ruben Quevedo -- 28 losses -- 24 years old
Jon Garland -- 32 losses -- 23 years old
Jake Peavy -- 12 losses -- 22 years old
Jeremy Bonderman -- 8 losses -- 20 years old

Before I look at those youngsters, I want to look at the member of the 225-loss club who is probably most useful for us to examine. Frank Tanana lost 236 games, so he didn't go much past the mark. He pitched recently, retiring after 1993. He pitched 21 years, but he didn't pitch much into his 40's (he turned 40 during his final season).

Tanana came up with California at age 20 as a September call-up in 1973 and lost two games in 26.3 innings. He was a regular member of the rotation the next season and lost 19 games in his rookie season. Tanana averaged about 9.5 losses per year for the next seven seasons before losing 18 in his first year with Texas in 1982. He then averaged 11.3 losses a year for the next 10 years, always losing between eight and 15 games. Needing just six losses to reach 225, Tanana went out and lost 17 games in his final season.

Now I'm going to copy something Aaron Gleeman did while looking at which young pitchers had the best chance to win 300 games. I'm going to list Tanana's losses at the end of each season, with his seasonal age for that season.

19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30
 2   21   30   40   49   61   66   78   88   106   115   130

What that allows us to do is see whether those young pitchers are ahead of or behind the pace that Tanana set and by how much, which will give us at least a little insight into their chances of losing 225 games.

Vazquez had 56 losses after his age 25 season, which is 10 fewer than Tanana had. He's on pace to have 64 losses at the end of this season (his age 26 season), which would be 14 fewer than Tanana. Vazquez started at age 22, three years later than Tanana, but lost 15 games that first season. After dropping to eight losses the following year, his losses have gone up each season since -- from eight to nine to 11 to 13 -- but it looks like he'll reverse that trend this season even though Montreal has a poor offense. Unless he gets traded, he has one more year with the Expos after this one. Then he'll probably go elsewhere as a free agent and, if he's smart, he'll pick a team with a good offense. I don't think he has much chance of losing 225, especially since he's already well behind Tanana's pace.

Weaver had 54 losses after his age 25 season and is on pace to have 64 losses at the end of this season, so his pace isn't any better than Vazquez's. Playing for the Yankees won't help him pick up losses either as they'll always have the money to field a good offense and if he stinks -- like he has this year -- he'll probably just get sent to the bullpen -- like he was this year. I'd say he probably has less of a chance of losing 225 than Vazquez.

Ponson had 53 losses after his age 25 season and is on pace to have 61 losses at the end of this season. He'd then have to have about 15 straight season with double-digit losses to reach 225.

Dempster is even further off the pace than the other 26 year olds as he had 48 losses after his age 25 season and is on pace to have 58 losses at the end of this year.

Sheets and Quevedo are behind Garland's loss totals and they're both a year older. Both had 26 losses at the end of their age 23 seasons and Sheets is on pace to have 37 losses at the end of this season, while Quevedo is on pace to have 31. Garland had 27 losses at the end of his age 22 season (which is 13 behind Tanana's pace) and is on pace to have 40 losses at the end of this year (which would be nine behind Tanana's pace). So, while Garland would need to have two straight 13-loss seasons to catch up with Tanana, Sheets and Quevedo already have virtually no chance of losing 225 games.

Peavy had seven losses after his age 21 season (which is 23 fewer than Tanana) and is on pace to have 20 losses at the end of this season (which would be 20 behind Tanana and seven behind Garland). So, even if he stays healthy for a long, long time, I don't think Peavy has much of a shot at losing 225.

No, the player with the best shot at eventually losing 225 games is also the player who has the most time to have something go wrong. Bonderman obviously had 0 losses after his age 19 season, but he's on pace to have 22 losses at the end of this season (which would be one ahead of Tanana). I think Bonderman has the best chance of eventually reaching 225 losses, but it's not a good chance and comparing him to Tanana shows why.

Yes, Bonderman is on pace to have more losses at the end of this season than Tanana had in the season he turned 20, but with Bonderman it's because he's a below average pitcher on a team with a horrible offense. Tanana played on a team with a horrible offense (the 1974 California Angels were last in the AL in runs scored), but he was an above average pitcher (he had a 111 ERA+) who threw a lot of innings.

Bonderman is on pace to make 32 starts and pitch 177 innings. In his rookie season, Tanana made 35 starts and four relief appearances, completed 12 games and pitched 268.7 innings. For his career, Tanana averaged slightly under 200 innings pitched a year for 21 seasons.

Can Bonderman average 200 innings pitched a year for 21 seasons? Sure, if he is tremendously lucky with his health and never becomes a horrible pitcher. If he pitches 4,200 innings like Tanana did, is Bonderman a sure thing to lose 225 games? No, but it would certainly help.

In baseball history, 31 pitchers have thrown more than 4,200 innings (Tanana has the most innings pitched without reaching 4,200). Of those 31 pitchers, 27 lost at least 200 games and 21 lost at least 225 games. Of those 31 pitchers, 23 are in the Hall of Fame. Finally, those 31 pitchers averaged 237.7 losses in their careers.

So what? So, 225 losses tells us almost exactly the same thing that 300 wins tells us -- the pitcher was able to pitch a lot of innings for a lot of years.

What's the difference between the following sets of numbers:

236 losses, 106 ERA+
244 losses, 106 ERA+

The first line is Tanana, who won 240 games, pitched 4,188.1 innings, made three All-Star teams, was in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting three times and led his league in ERA once. The second line is Early Wynn who won 300 games, pitched 4,564 innings, made six All-Star teams, was in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting once (the year he won), led his league in ERA once and is in the Hall of Fame.

You want a club where every member absolutely belongs in the Hall of Fame? Try the 5,000-inning club. It has 12 members and all of them have at least 300 wins and at least 200 losses.

Cy Young, 511-316, 7354.2 IP, 138 ERA+
Pud Galvin, 364-310, 6003.1 IP, 111 ERA+
Walter Johnson, 417-279, 6003.1 IP, 146 ERA+
Phil Niekro, 318-274, 5404.1 IP, 115 ERA+
Nolan Ryan, 324-292, 5386 IP, 112 ERA+
Gaylord Perry, 314-265, 5350.1 IP, 117 ERA+
Don Sutton, 324-256, 5282.1 IP, 108 ERA+
Warren Spahn, 363-245, 5243.1 IP, 118 ERA+
Steve Carlton, 5217.1 IP, 115 ERA+
Pete Alexander, 373-208, 5190 IP, 135 ERA+
Kid Nichols, 361-208, 5056.1 IP, 139 ERA+
Tim Keefe, 342-225, 5047.2 IP, 125 ERA+

Losing 300

The other day I received an email from Mike Hunt in Reno, Nevada. I'm always thrilled to get emails from readers (and if you email me, I promise I'll respond), but I'm especially thrilled when it includes something I can turn into a post. Part of Mike's email was the following question:

With Clemens closing in on 300 wins and everyone wondering who will be the next 300 game winner, will there ever be another 300 game loser?

The short answer is no, there won't be. But you didn't come here for short answers, so I'll answer the more interesting question: Will there ever be another player who loses a number of games that is similarly difficult to do as winning 300 games is?

When Mike emailed me, I don't think he had any idea how exclusive the 300-loss club is. It has just two members: Cy Young (316) and Pud Galvin (310). Both men are in the Hall of Fame, and both have also won at least 360 games. Young pitched for 22 seasons and averaged 37 starts a year for his career, while also making about 90 relief apearances in his career. Galvin only pitched for 15 seasons, but he averaged nearly 46 starts a year.

The 300-loss club was formed in 1892 and inducted its final member in 1911. Nolan Ryan made a run at becoming the third member of the club, but fell eight losses short.

The fact that Ryan couldn't make it says a lot about how hard it really is. Ryan pitched for 27 years. He made 773 starts and got the decision in 616 of those starts, thanks in large part to 222 complete games. He was not usually much better than average at preventing runs and more than a handful of times he was actually below average. Finally, he played for some terrible offenses (he pitched for seven teams that were last or second-to-last in runs scored and just two teams that were first or second). And with all of that going for him, Ryan still couldn't reach 300 losses.

So it 300 losses is too lofty a mark, what's a better milestone? Well, there are 21 pitchers in history with at least 230 career losses. When Roger Clemens finally wins another game, there will be 21 pitchers in history with at least 300 wins. I don't like 230 though -- 225 is a much nicer, round number and it only lets in three more people.

So, for the purposes of this discussion, losing 225 games is the historical equivalent of winning 300 games. Of the 24 pitchers who have lost 225 games, 16 of them are in the Hall of Fame and a few others (Tommy John, Jim Kaat and Bert Blyleven at the least) could have convincing arguments made on their behalves. Let's change Mike's question just so we have it there:

Will there ever be another 225-game loser?

When answering a question like this, the first thing to do is to look at the active leaderboard and see who is closest to the mark. In this case, that's not so easy.

You see, Chuck Finley has 173 losses and would be at the top of the list of active players, except that he's not yet active (although Peter Gammons reports that the Red Sox are interested). It probably doesn't matter whether he's active or not though, because he's not worth considering.

Finley is 40 years old and he needs 52 losses to join the club. Even if he signs somewhere within the next two weeks, he's unlikely to lose more than 10 games this season, especially if he signs with a team that has an offense as good as Boston's. For the sake of easy math, let's say Finley has 180 losses at the end of this year. He'd either need to average 15 losses over three more seasons, 11.25 losses over four more seasons, nine more losses over five more seasons or play past his 45th birthday. I don't think I'm the only one who thinks all of those scenarios are very unlikely.

So, who's next on the leaderboard after Finley? Greg Maddux, with 157 losses at age 37. Assuming he gets the 13 losses he's on pace for this season, he'd need to average 21 losses over the next three seasons to reach 230. Obviously, that's not going to happen. Even if Maddux plays six more seasons after this one, he'd need to average more than 10 losses per year.

At age 35, Kevin Appier is the youngest player within 100 losses of 230 (he has exactly 130 right now). Even if he plays into his 40's, which is no sure thing, there's no way he'll get those 100 losses.

Steve Trachsel has 111 losses at age 32. If he finishes this season with 120 losses, he'd need to average 14 losses over the next seven seasons to reach 230. It's possible (and it's possible that he'll play more than seven more seasons), but it would be very tough to do.

Brad Radke has 105 losses at age 30. If he loses 10 games this season (he's on pace to lose 13), he'd be 120 away. All he'd have to do then is average 12 losses a season for 10 years. Piece of cake, right?

So none of the players who already have at least 100 losses look like especially good bets to reach 230 for their career. Radke probably has the best chance, but he'd have to stay healthy for 10 years and get lucky (unlucky?).

How about the young players then? Here are some of the losingest pitchers for their ages:

Javier Vazquez -- 59 losses -- 26 years old
Jeff Weaver -- 58 losses -- 26 years old
Sidney Ponson -- 56 losses -- 26 years old
Ryan Dempster -- 52 losses -- 26 years old
Ben Sheets -- 30 losses -- 24 years old
Ruben Quevedo -- 28 losses -- 24 years old
Jon Garland -- 32 losses -- 23 years old
Jake Peavy -- 12 losses -- 22 years old
Jeremy Bonderman -- 8 losses -- 20 years old

Before I look at those youngsters, I want to look at the member of the 225-loss club who is probably most useful for us to examine. Frank Tanana lost 236 games, so he didn't go much past the mark. He pitched recently, retiring after 1993. He pitched 21 years, but he didn't pitch much into his 40's (he turned 40 during his final season).

Tanana came up with California at age 20 as a September call-up in 1973 and lost two games in 26.3 innings. He was a regular member of the rotation the next season and lost 19 games in his rookie season. Tanana averaged about 9.5 losses per year for the next seven seasons before losing 18 in his first year with Texas in 1982. He then averaged 11.3 losses a year for the next 10 years, always losing between eight and 15 games. Needing just six losses to reach 225, Tanana went out and lost 17 games in his final season.

Now I'm going to copy something Aaron Gleeman did while looking at which young pitchers had the best chance to win 300 games. I'm going to list Tanana's losses at the end of each season, with his seasonal age for that season.

19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30
 2   21   30   40   49   61   66   78   88   106   115   130

Grading the fans

The All-Star game is about a month away and, since the latest update of the AL vote totals was just released, I thought I'd check in and see how the fans are doing selecting the American League All-Stars. I'll do the same thing for the National League tomorrow when the NL voting update is released.

Catcher - Jorge Posada is leading the voting here with almost three times as many votes (439,472) as his closest competition (Jason Varitek with 150,189). This is fine with me, as there are so few quality catchers in the AL that Mike Scioscia might be tempted to take Bengie Molina and his .290 average (and .713 OPS).

Posada is hitting .265/.393/.540 (.933 OPS) with 14 home runs. At .858, Varitek has the next highest OPS among catchers with at least 150 at-bats.

First Base - Carlos Delgado just moved into first place this week, passing Jason Giambi by about 30,000 votes.

This is obviously the correct choice as Delgado is hitting .325/.441/.658 (1.099) with 19 homers, 56 runs and 67 RBI. He leads the AL in home runs, RBI, runs walks (43), SLG and OPS and is second in OBP and 10th in batting average. No other AL first baseman has an OPS above .975.

Second Base - Alfonso Soriano leads the entire AL with 572,156 votes. Soriano is certainly having a nice season -- hitting .300/.357/.556 (.913) with 18 home runs, 51 runs, 42 RBI and 17 steals in 19 attempts -- but he does not deserve to be the starting second baseman for the American League in the All-Star Game.

That honor should go to Bret Boone, who is hitting .321/.387/.613 (1.000) with 17 homers, 52 runs, 50 RBI and six steals in seven attempts. Boone is second with 301,276 votes and has pretty much no shot at catching Soriano.

Third Base - This is the closest AL position as 75,000 votes seperate No. 1 -- Troy Glaus -- from No. 4 -- Hank Blalock.

Either of those players would be fine choices to be the starter this year. Glaus is hitting .302/.390/.590 (.980) with 14 home runs, 41 runs, 43 RBI and seven steals in eight attempts. Blalock is hitting .353/.410/.575 (.985) with 10 homers and 40 RBI. Like I said, either of them are excellent choices.

Another excellent choice who has absolutely no chance, because you have to write him in, is Bill Mueller. Mueller is hitting .355/.414/.576 (.989) with 22 doubles, although he has been slumping somewhat since the Red Sox traded away Shea Hillenbrand.

Shortstop - Alex Rodriguez leads Nomar Garciaparra by a comfortable 170,000 votes and deservedly so. Rodriguez is batting .299/.383/.568 (.952) with 16 home runs, 44 runs, 38 RBI and seven steals in eight attemtps. Garciaparra is hitting .315/.347/.559 (.906) with 10 homers, 53 runs, 41 RBI and five steals in eight attempts.

Rodriguez and Garciaparra are clearly alone at the head of the class in the AL, which means we won't have to deal with five AL shortstops this year.

Outfield - The three leading outfielders are Ichiro Suzuki, Manny Ramirez and Torii Hunter.

Ramirez is a good selection as he's hitting .320/.406/.553 (.959) with 12 home runs, 47 runs and 45 RBI. Ichiro has hit average back up to .328 and he has a .375 OBP, but he has just a .435 SLG. You could probably do better, although he could very well be hitting above .350 in a month. Hunter is a ridiculous selection as he's hitting .257/.345/.450 (.796) with nine home runs. He's also been caught stealing on seven of his nine attempts.

So who deserves to start instead of Ichiro and Hunter? Well, how about Melvin Mora and Milton Bradley.

More is hitting .365/.465/.597 (1.062) with nine home runs and 41 runs in 50 games. Bradley is hitting .333/.439/.509 (.948) with 18 doubles and five steals in seven attempts in 46 games.

You want players who haven't missed as many games? How about Aubrey Huff and Garret Anderon?

Huff is hitting .296/.362/.567 (.929) with 21 doubles and 14 home runs. Anderson is hitting .315/.340/.577 (.916) with 20 doubles, 13 home runs and 57 RBI. Either one would make a fine All-Star based on their numbers so far this season.

Designated Hitter - Edgar Martinez has a lead of about 145,000 votes over Carl Everett. When you just look at their stats, it seems like an argument could be made for either one. You have to keep in mind, however, that Everett plays in a hitter's park and Martinez plays in a pitcher's park.

Martinez is hitting .326/.423/.612 (1.035) with 14 home runs and 37 RBI and has a .357 EqA. Everett is batting .301/.389/.617 (1.006) with 16 homers, 48 runs and 44 RBI and a .329 EqA. Like I said, it's not as close as it looks.

So, in my opinion, the fans have only made two big mistakes (Ichiro and Hunter) out of nine positions. Soriano isn't the best pick, but he's the second best pick and he's more sexy for the casual fan than Boone. Unless a lot has changed since last week, I think we'll see that the fans have done a much worse job with the NL.

Mr. Inconsistency

One of the major strengths of the New York Yankees this season was supposed to be their starting pitching. In fact, most people thought they had too many quality starters going into the season, even though "you can never have too much pitching." So, it's surprising to see that they only have one starter in the top 10 in ERA and just two starters in the top 15 in WHIP in the AL.

While the main culprit has been Jeff Weaver (5.30 ERA, 1.60 WHIP), the most surprising culprit has been Andy Pettitte. Weaver struggled when he joined the Yankees last year and he's always been thought of as something of a flake, while Pettitte has held down a steady job in the Yankees rotation since 1995.

This year, however, Pettitte is 5-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Oddly, Pettitte has 62 strikeouts (7.51 K/9IP) and 3.1 (K/BB). That's the highest K/9IP mark of his career and he's only had a higher K/BB rate once (4.0 in 2001). What's going on? Well, Pettitte's giving up a .331 batting average on balls that the defense can make a play on (that is, everything but walks, strikeouts and home runs).

Either he's been really unlucky, or the Yankees defense has been really bad. Well, it's been talked about at length that the Yankees defense is really bad, and the numbers kind of support that sentiment. Of the Yankees five pitchers who have thrown more than 70 innings, three (including Pettitte) have allowed a batting average above .310 on balls the defense can do something about.

Jeff Weaver has allowed a .341 average, Roger Clemens has allowed a .315 average, Mike Mussina has allowed a .275 average and David Wells has allowed a .267 average.

Probably coincidentally, the numbers lend some support to the idea that fielders like to play behind pitchers who keep them in the game. Wells has issued a walk every 28.6 innings and Mussina has issued a walk every 5.6 innings. The three who have given up the .310-plus averages when the defense is involved have all issued a walk more frequently than every four innings -- 3.7 IP/BB for Pettitte, 3.4 IP/BB for Clemens and 3.2 IP/BB for Weaver.

Getting back to Pettitte, I'd just like to mention how fabulously inconsistent he's been this season.

Here are his game scores this year in order: 71, 46, 28, 63, 27, 73, 19, 39, 54, 19, 66, 65, 19.

He's had five games with a game score above 60 and five with a game score below 30. He's only had back-to-back starts with a game score above 60 once and he's yet to have back-to-back starts with a game score below 30.

Here is what his ERA progression has looked like: 0.00, 2.13, 4.24, 3.70, 4.91, 3.96, 4.43, 4.75, 4.47, 5.28, 4.93, 4.71, 5.33.

It's like a pendulum, and it would annoy the hell out of me. I guess it's nice to know he could throw a gem anytime out to the mound, but it must be troublesome to worry about whether or not he'll implode every times he starts.

Taking flight

Most of you know about Marlon Byrd. He's a "five-tool" centerfielder who was supposed to man center this season for the Phillies and make them not have to worry about that position for the next 10 years.

Well, on April 13th, Byrd was hitting .161/.316/.258 (.574 OPS) and had more walks (7) than hits (4). He was then out with an injury until April 30th, at which point he picked up right where he left off. At the end of May, Byrd was hitting .193/.261/.277 (.538) and there was talk that the Phillies were looking to trade for a veteran centerfielder.

Since the beginning of June, however, Byrd is 10-for-17 (.588 average) with four walks (.667 OBP) and three doubles (.765 SLG). He still hasn't hit a home run this season, but his six-game performance in June is very encouraging. These six games are so much better than the previous 31 games that he's got his season stats up to .260/.342/.360 (.702 OPS).

Byrd isn't the only player who wasn't living up to expectations this season. The Phillies were expected to be near the top of the NL in offense, but as of right now they don't have a single player with more than 35 at-bats and an OPS above .870 (remember from my earlier post today that the Cardinals have six players with at least 75 at-bats and an OPS above .870).

Bobby Abreu has a career .927 OPS, but is hitting .286/.403/.465 (.686) this season. He seems to be finding a groove, however, as he's 13-for-27 with five walks in his last eight games. He was hitting .258/.383/.432 (.815) before this hot streak.

Jim Thome has a career .977 OPS, but is hitting just .249/.371/.493 (.864) this season. He does have three home runs in his last nine games, but he only has three other hits in those games (6-for-33).

Pat Burrell has a career .843 OPS, but is hitting just .199/.312/.431 (.743) this season. He did go 2-for-4 with a double and a home run yesterday, though, so maybe he's breaking out of his slump.

Jimmy Rollins is hitting .267/.318/.372 (.690), which is actually better than the .686 OPS he posted last year. The Phillies were hoping that he could get back to at least the .742 OPS he put up in 2001.

David Bell's career .706 OPS isn't great, but he's hitting a woeful .201/.280/.284 (.564) this season. He's just 2 for his last 41 with two walks. This is not what the Phillies had in mind when they signed him, after he posted a .762 OPS in 154 games for San Francisco last year.

Because of all of these underperformers, the Phillies are scoring just 4.74 runs per game. It's only thanks to a surprisingly good pitching staff that Philadelphia is above .500. That pitching staff has been so good, in fact, that Philadelphia has an expected record of 37-25.

Considering some bad luck must be contributing to their 33-29 record, maybe there's reason to be hopeful in Philadelphia. Sure, the Phillies are already 9.5 games behind the Braves, but they should be closer. If the bounces start going their way, the offense starts hitting the way it's capable and the pitching keeps doing what it's been doing, the Phillies could go on a nice hot streak.

Maybe yesterday's double-header sweep of the A's was the beginning of that hot streak. Check out the only game on the schedule today to see if the Phillies can make it three wins in a row or, maybe more importantly for them, three games in a row scoring at least seven runs -- something they've yet to do this season.

Offensive dichotomy

The St. Louis Cardinals have a very good offense. They have scored 346 runs (third in the NL behind Atlanta and Colorado) and average 5.67 runs per game (second behind Atlanta). What's interesting, however, is how the Cardinals have scored 346 runs.

You see, St. Louis has 10 players with at least 100 at-bats so far this season. Five of those players have an OPS above .870 and five of them have an OPS below .750. The Cardinals have had two players collect around 75 at-bats this season. One of them has an OPS above .870 and one of them has an OPS below .750. In fact, not a single player on the entire team has an OPS in between .750 and .870.

Let's take a look at the 12 Cardinals who have had at least 75 at-bats so far this year.

Albert Pujols is easily the best hitter on the team. I wrote about Pujols here and he's been even better since I wrote that.

In his last eight games, Pujols is batting .618 (21 for 34). For the season, he's hitting .389 with a .448 OBP and a .720 SLG (1.169 OPS) with 22 doubles, 16 homers, 52 runs and 51 RBI. In the NL, he's ranked first in batting average, sixth in home runs, fifth in RBI, third in runs, second in OBP, first in SLG and first in OPS.

The only player in the majors who might be hitting better than Albert Pujols is Barry Bonds (Bonds has an OPS 21 points lower, but an OBP 48 points higher). I really hope Pujols stays healthy, because I get goosebumps every time I let myself think about what his career numbers could look like in 15 years.

The other Cardinal with an OPS above 1.000 is Jim Edmonds. Edmonds is hitting .300/.401/.632 (1.032 OPS) with 15 home runs, 36 runs and 37 RBI.

I know it's been talked about before, but it really is amazing how Edmonds has turned into a great hitter since joining the Cardinals. In parts of seven season with Anaheim, Edmonds hit .290/.358/.498 (.856 OPS). In his three-plus seasons with St. Louis, Edmonds is hitting .303/.412/.577 (.989 OPS). In his last five years with Anaheim, he averaged 119.4 games and only played in more than 144 games once. With St. Louis, he's averaged 148.7 games and has yet to play in fewer than 144 games (he's on pace to play in 151 games this year).

In short, he's gone from being comparable to Ray Lankford to being comparable to Tris Speaker. That's one hell of a transformation.

The Cardinals' third of four probable All-Stars on offense is Scott Rolen. Rolen is hitting .297/.407/.557 (.964 OPS) with 12 homers, 41 runs and 50 RBI. With his current paces, it looks like he'll challenge his career highs in runs (120), hits (174), doubles (45), home runs (31), RBI (110) and walks (93). The numbers in parentheses are his career highs, not what he's on pace for this season.

The fourth great hitter with at least 200 plate appearances is Edgar Renteria, who is hitting .330/.380/.494 (.873 OPS) with six home runs, 37 runs, 44 RBI and nine steals in 11 attempts.

The Cardinals have also received nice contributions from J.D. Drew and Eduardo Perez. Drew has quietly hit .343/.378/.590 (.969 OPS) in 34 games since returning from his injury and Perez is hitting .312/.398/.494 in 77 at-bats mostly filling in for Drew.

So, with Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria and Drew/Perez, the Cardinals have basically had five great hitters. Then there's the other side of the offense...

Before having surgery on his hamstring, Fernando Vina was hitting .262/.316/.430 (.746 OPS) with just three steals in seven attempts in 40 games. In his first two seasons with St. Louis, Vina posted respectables .778 and .775 OPS's. Last year, however, he plumetted to .671 and his OBP was actually higher last year than it is this season.

Tino Martinez continues to fall off the face of the Earth, as he's hitting .269/.324/.421 (.744 OPS) with just four home runs, 26 runs and 24 RBI. Martinez has always been overvalued because of his RBI totals and his team's records, but he hasn't quite been this bad since his first full season in Seattle (.727 OPS). He's really only had two good seasons -- his final one in Seattle (.920 OPS) and his second season in New York (.944 OPS). His career OPS+ of 113 coming into the season is exactly the same as Tony Clark's, albeit in more games.

The Cardinals never expect any offense from Mike Matheny, and he's living up to expectations. Matheny is hitting .279/.335/.368 (.703 OPS), which is actually better than he's ever done before in any of those categories. Matheny's best numbers all came in 2000 when he hit .261/.317/.362 (.679 OPS).

St. Louis' other three offensive misfits are Orlando Palmeiro, Miguel Cairo and Eli Marrero.

Palmeiro is hitting .276/.363/.362 (.725 OPS) in 116 at-bats and Cairo is hitting .256/.299/.376 (.675 OPS) in 125 at-bats. Marrero was hitting .227/.280/.313 (.654 OPS) in 75 at-bats before hurting his ankle.

How good could the Cardinals offense be if they replaced the bad hitters with average ones? We'll probably never know.

If you asked Tony LaRussa, I'm sure he'd say that Matheny makes up for his offense with great defense, Martinez provides great veteran leadership, Vina makes things go at the top of the order when he's healthy and Palmeiro and Cairo are excellent role players.

Luckily for Cardinals fans, the good hitters are probably good enough to carry those bad hitters into the playoffs.

Note - If you look at the column to the right, you'll notice that I've added a "Pace Watch" table. These are merely players who are on pace for a stat that I find interesting because it would be a record or a number not often seen. As the season goes on, the players listed there may change depending on whether these guys fall off their paces or other guys get on better paces.