Day off

Today's my girlfriend's birthday, so I'm going to take the day off from posting. I'll be back with my "State of the Red Sox" post tomorrow.

The power of Neyer

What do you do if you root for a team that has high expectations, but gets off to a very bad start in April? Well, if you’re smart, you’ll sit down and write an email to Rob Neyer, asking him to declare that your team has no shot at making the playoffs or no shot at winning its division.

You see, Neyer has written a team off before the All-Star break three years in a row. And he’s in danger of being wrong for the third year in a row this season.

In April of 2001, the Oakland Athletics went 8-17 while the Seattle Mariners were going 20-5. At some point in that month, Neyer wrote that the A’s wouldn’t make the playoffs (I’d provide a link, but his archives don’t go back far enough). Of course, they won 102 games and the wild card.

Last year, the A’s were 27-28 after 55 games, exactly the same as their record through 55 games in 2001. Neyer remembered they A’s proving him wrong in 2001, but on June 3, 2002, he wrote that they would not do it again. He did hedge his bets by saying that he thought they could not win 100 games after such a mediocre start a second time, but that they didn’t necessarily need to win 100 games to make the playoffs. Of course, they won 103 games and the AL West.

This year, the Arizona Diamondbacks started the season 3-11. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants started the season 13-1. So, with the Diamondbacks 10 games out of first place on April 16, Neyer wrote that Arizona probably would not win another division title this year. He did use the word probably, but in the rest of the column he makes it clear that he thought Arizona’s only shot at the playoffs this year was the wild card.

As you may have noticed, the Diamondbacks have won eight straight games to cut that early deficit in half and now sit five games behind the Giants. What’s more, tonight Arizona starts a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers, who have lost 18 of their last 20 games. Meanwhile, San Francisco starts a three-game series against the A’s, who have won 10 of their last 13 games.

Of course, Arizona is also four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, so it’s not as though they’re just a breath away from first place. The Dodgers play three against the Anaheim Angels, who have lost nine of their last 13 games and last night lost one of their best hitters for the season.

Anyway, I’m not writing this to pick on Rob. He’s one of my favorite writers and is right much more often than he’s wrong. He just seems to be consistently wrong when he eliminates teams from contention – for either the division or the wild card – early in the season.

The real reason I’m writing this is because I wanted to take a closer look at the Diamondbacks, whose impressive turnaround is even more impressive when you consider that they’ve done it with their two aces, their closer and two of their starting infielders on the disabled list.

The Diamondbacks played on game in March and lost. They then went 12-15 in April, scoring 4.04 runs per game and allowing 4.11 runs per game. Their batters hit .264/.325/.408 (.733) and their pitchers had a 3.99 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.

Arizona went 13-14 in May, scoring 4.70 runs per game and allowing 4.59 runs per game. Their batters hit .260/.334/.422 (.756) and their pitchers had a 4.22 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

So far in June, the Diamondbacks are 16-6, scoring 5.5 runs per game and allowing 3.91 runs per game. Their batters are hitting .288/.343/.470 (.813) and their pitchers have a 3.46 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.

Let’s take a look at the key reasons for their success in June.

Steve Finley is hitting .378/.453/.667 (1.119) in 45 at-bats. His impressive-but-limited June has raised his season numbers to .292/.383/.507 (.890).

Alex Cintron is hitting .357/.395/.657 (1.052) in 70 at-bats after posting a .795 OPS in 68 at-bats in May.

Luis Gonzalez is hitting .366/.430/.610 (1.040) in 82 at-bats. He has drawn 10 walks and only struck out twice. That brings his season numbers up to .310/.384/.562 (.946).

Robby Hammock is hitting .269/.316/.538 (.854) in 52 at-bats, filling in at catcher, third base and right field.

Lyle Overbay is hitting .305/.379/.475 (.853) in 59 at-bats. After a nice April and a poor May, he’s hitting .283/.371/.428 (.799) on the season.

Tony Womack is hitting .290/.338/.435 (.773) in 69 at-bats. He was so awful before June that, even now, he’s hitting just .242/.275/.346 (.621) for the season. He had a .501 OPS in April and a .591 OPS in May.

On the other side of the ball, taking over for Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Matt Mantei as the aces and the closer of the staff have been Miguel Batista, Brandon Webb and Jose Valverde.

Batista is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 30 strikeouts (8.80 K/9IP) and 11 walks in 30.2 innings in June. He has a 2.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 89 innings for the season.

Webb is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 21 strikeouts (7.27 K/9IP) and seven walks in 26 innings this month. He has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 68 innings for the season.

Valverde debuted on the first of the month and has eight saves with a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16 strikeouts (12.00 K/9IP) and five walks in 12 innings. At 6-4 and 254 pounds, this imposing 23-year-old is quickly becoming a rookie sensation.

Can the Diamondbacks keep winning and make the NL West a three-team race? I have no idea. I do know, however, that it is not a certainty that Arizona will not win the division. And that makes things just a little more exciting.

Stars of the future

The rosters for the All-Star Futures game were announced recently and I thought it would be nice to go through and take a look at all 50 "future stars." I'll look at the U.S. roster here and probably get to the World roster tomorrow. (Note: some of the players stats are only through Tuesday night's games)

Unfortunately, this post is too long for the “new-and-improved“ blogger, so I had to break it into parts. Just keep scrolling down at the end of each part and you‘ll be able to tell when you reach the end of the whole post.

C - Jeff Mathis, ANA

The Angels drafted Mathis in the first round (33rd overall) in 2001. He's 20 years old, 6-0 and 180 pounds and bats right-handed.

Last year, he hit .287/.346/.444 (.790) with 41 doubles, 10 home runs, 40 walks and 75 strikeouts in 128 games for Cedar Rapids of the Class A Midwest League. This year, he's hitting .326/.391/.500 (.891) with 22 doubles, seven home runs, 26 walks and 52 strikeouts in 69 games at Rancho Cucamonga of the Class A California League.

Mathis has made a very nice improvement while moving up a level, which is always nice to see. It will be interesting to see if he can retain, or even improve upon, his power and plate discipline when he moves up to Class AA.

C - Joe Mauer, MIN

The Twins took Mauer with the first overall pick in 2001, controversially passing on Mark Prior. Mauer is 20 years old, 6-4 and 220 pounds and bats left-handed.

He hit .302/.393/.392 (.785) with 23 doubles, four home runs, 61 walks and 42 strikeouts in 110 games last year for Quad City of the Class A Midwest League. He was hitting .335/.395/.412 (.807) with 13 doubles, one home run, 24 walks and 24 strikeouts in 62 games at Fort Myers of the Class A Florida State League before being promoted to New Britain of the Class AA Eastern League, where he is hitting .250/.357/.306 (.663) with two doubles, four walks and three strikeouts in 10 games.

Mauer is moving through Minnesota's system quickly and will probably start next year at Class AAA Rochester if he plays well the rest of this season. He's showing very nice patience at the plate, but not being so passive that he's striking out too much. The lack of home runs is not a big concern, as home run power is often the last thing a player develops.

1B - Ryan Howard, PHI

The Phillies selected Howard in the 47th round in 2001. He's 23 years old, 6-4 and 230 pounds and bats left-handed.

He hit .280/.367/.460 (.827) with 20 doubles, six triples, 19 home runs, 66 walks and 145 strikeouts in 135 games last year for Lakewood of the Class A South Atlantic League. He's currently hitting .293/.368/.505 (.873) with 17 doubles, 13 home runs, 28 walks and 83 strikeouts in 70 games for Clearwater of the Class A Florida State League.

As a 47th round pick who is hitting well, it's hard to complain. However, Howard is a little old to be in Class A and it's not a good sign that he's experienced a slight dip in walks and an increase in strikeouts. He clearly has power, though, and the strikeouts will be easy to overlook if he can draw walks and hit home runs.

1B - Adam LaRoche, ATL

The Braves picked LaRoche in the 27th round in 2000. He's 23 years old, 6-3 and 180 pounds and bats left-handed.

He hit .336/.406/.512 (.918) with 17 doubles, nine home runs, 27 walks and 37 strikeouts in 69 games at Myrtle Beach of the Class A Carolina League and then hit .289/.363/.410 (.773) with nine doubles, four home runs, 19 walks and 38 strikeouts in 45 games for Greenville of the Class AA Southern League. He returned to Greenville to start this year and hit .283/.381/.511 (.892) in 12 doubles, 12 home runs, 34 walks and 53 strikeouts in 61 games. He's currently hitting .180/.255/.360 (.615) with three doubles, two home runs, five walks and 13 strikeouts in 13 games for Richmond of the Class AAA International League.

LaRoche maintained his walk rate when he moved up to Class AA last year and then improved that rate along with the other aspects of his offensive game this year in AA. He's currently struggling in AAA, but he's probably not too far away from helping in the majors.

2B - Josh Barfield, SD

The Padres took Barfield in the fourth round in 2001. He's 20 years old, 6-0 and 185 pounds and bats right-handed.

Last year, he hit .306/.340/.403 (.743) with 22 doubles, eight home runs, 26 walks, 105 strikeouts and 26 stolen bases in 34 attempts in 129 games at Fort Wayne of the Class A Midwest League. This year, he's hitting .352/.395/.548 (.943) with 24 doubles, five triples, nine home runs, 25 walks, 68 strikeouts and nine steals in 11 attempts in 75 games at Lake Elsinore of the Class A California League.

He's made an amazing improvement this year while moving up to a higher Class A. He's walking more and hitting for a lot more power without striking out much more. He also appears to be a good base stealer, succeeding 77.8-percent of the time this year and last year.

SS - J.J. Hardy, MIL

The Brewers picked Hardy in the second round in 2001. He's 20 years old, 6-2 and 205 pounds and bats right-handed.

He hit .293/.327/.409 (.736) with 19 doubles, six home runs, 19 walks, 38 strikeouts and nine steals in 12 attempts in 84 games last year at High Desert of the Class A California League. He's currently hitting .288/.390/.490 (.880) with 13 doubles, nine home runs, 33 walks and 24 strikeouts in 57 games for Huntsville of the Class AA Southern League.

Hardy has shown tremendous improvement while moving up to Class AA. He's hitting for a lot more power -- homering twice as frequently -- and walking more than twice as often while not striking out any more frequently.

3B - Chad Tracy, ARI

The Diamondbacks took Tracy in the seventh round in 2001. He's 23 years old, 6-2 and 190 pounds and bats left-handed.

Last year, Tracy hit .344/.396./486 (.882) with 39 doubles, five triples, eight home runs, 38 walks and 51 strikeouts in 129 games for El Paso of the Class AA Texas League. This year, he's hitting .336/.393/.472 (.865) with 18 doubles, three triples, five home runs, 27 walks and 23 strikeouts in 71 games at Tucson of the Class AAA Pacific Coast League.

Tracy has pretty much maintained his power while improving his control of the strike zone while moving up to Class AAA. His performance is just another reason why Arizona's decision to trade for Shea Hillenbrand was very confusing.

3B - Kevin Youkilis, BOS

The Red Sox selected Youkilis in the eighth round in 2001. He's 24 years old, 6-1 and 220 pounds and bats right-handed.

Youkilis hit .295/.422/.388 (.810) with 16 doubles, three home runs, 49 walks and 37 strikeouts in 76 games last year at Sarasota of the Class A Florida State League. He's hitting .305/.472/.410 (.882) with 16 doubles, two home runs, 55 walks and 31 strikeouts in 64 games at Portland of the Class AA Eastern League.

Youkilis does not look real pretty in a uniform, but he just gets on base all the time. He doesn't have much power yet, but if he can continue to keep working the strike zone to his advantage, he will start to be able to drive pitches. Youkilis is pretty much the poster child for the recent movement to focus on performance, especially OBP, with prospects instead of looking at ability and tools.

MI - Chris Burke, HOU

The Astros took Burke in the first round (10th overall) in 2001. He's 23 years old, 5-11 and 183 pounds and bats right-handed.

Last year, he hit .264/.330/.356 (.686) with 19 doubles, eight triples, three home runs, 39 walks, 61 strikeouts and 16 steals in 31 attempts in 136 games for Round Rock of the Class AA Texas League. He returned to Round Rock this year, and is hitting .316/.379/.409 (.788) with 16 doubles, five triples, one home run, 26 walks, 26 strikeouts and 17 steals in 23 attempts in 75 games.

You expect a player to get better when he repeats at a level, so it's good to see that Burke has improved every facet of his offensive game this season. He's walking more, striking out less, hitting for more power and stealing bases at a better rate. He should be ready to move up to Class AAA by the end of the year.

OF - Dave Kryznel, MIL

The Brewers picked Kryznel in the first round (11th overall) in 2000. He’s 21 years old, 6-1 and 180 pounds and bats left-handed.

He hit .268/.391/.460 (.851) with 13 doubles, 12 triples, 11 home runs, 64 walks, 100 strikeouts and 29 steals in 46 attempts in 98 games last year at High Desert of the Class A California League. He also had a .618 OPS with 13 steals in 18 attempts in 31 games for Huntsville of the Class AA Southern League. He‘s back at Huntsville this year, hitting .313/.405/.408 (.813) with eight doubles, seven triples, one home run, 36 walks, 56 strikeouts and 28 steals in 46 attempts in 69 games.

Kryznel has shown very good plate discipline, although his power has disappeared a little in Class AA. He also doesn’t steal bases very well, successful only 63.6-percent of the time this year and last year.

OF - Laynce Nix, TEX

The Rangers picked Nix in the fourth round in 2000. He’s 22 years old, 6-0 and 190 pounds and bats left-handed.

Last year, he hit .285/.374/.473 (.847) with 27 doubles, three triples, 21 home runs, 72 walks, 105 walks and 17 steals in 18 attempts in 137 games at Charlotte of the Class A Florida State League. This year, he’s hitting .291/.347/.495 (.842) with 19 doubles, 13 home runs, 27 walks, 58 strikeouts and seven steals in nine attempts in 74 games at Frisco of the Class AA Texas League.

Nix was great all-around last year, showing power, patience and great efficiency stealing bases. This year, his power is even better, but his plate discipline has slipped a little bit. He’ll need to get those walks back up a little, especially as he continues to move up to Class AAA and then to the major leagues.

OF - Grady Sizemore, CLE

Sizemore was taken in the third round in 2000 by Montreal and then traded to the Indians last year. He’s 20 years old, 6-2 and 205 pounds and bats left-handed.

Last year, he hit .258/.351/.348 (.699) with 15 doubles, four triples, 36 walks, 41 strikeouts and nine steals in 18 attempts in 75 games for Brevard County of the Class A Florida State League with Montreal. Then, he hit .343/.451/.483 (934) with nine doubles, three triples, three home runs, 33 walks, 30 strikeouts and 14 steals in 21 attempts in 47 games for Kinston of the Class A Carolina League with Cleveland. He’s currently hitting .296/.353/.465 (.818) with 14 doubles, five triples, nine home runs, 28 walks, 44 strikeouts and five steals in nine attempts in 77 games at Akron of the Class AA Eastern League.

His walks have dropped off a bit with the move to Class AA and he doesn’t steal bases very well, but he’s continued to show nice power this year.

OF - Stephen Smitherman, CIN

The Reds selected Smitherman in the 23rd round in 2000. He’s 24 years old, 6-4 and 230 pounds and bats right-handed.

He hit .313/.362/.510 (.872)with 36 doubles, 19 home runs, 39 walks, 126 strikeouts and 17 steals in 19 attempts in 128 games last year at Stockton of the Class A California League. This year, he’s hitting .317/.398/.560 (.958) with 16 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs, 34 walks, 64 strikeouts and five steals in seven attempts in 77 games at Chattanooga of the Class AA Southern League.

On paper, with his size, power and strikeout numbers, Smitherman looks a lot like a current Cincinnati outfielder -- Adam Dunn. Obviously, the Reds would be happy if he continues to hit like Dunn.

Util - Khalil Greene, SD

The Padres took Greene in the first round (13th overall) last year. He’s 23 years old, 5-11 and 210 pounds and bats right-handed.

Last year, he hit .317/.368/.525 (.893) with nine doubles, one triple, nine home runs, 12 walks and 33 strikeouts in 46 games at Lake Elsinore of the Class A California League. This year, he hit .275/.327/.406 (.733) with 17 doubles, two triples, three home runs, 16 walks and 55 strikeouts in 59 games for Mobile of the Class AA Southern league. He’s currently hitting .371/.443/.645 (1.088) with five doubles, four home runs, one walk and 15 strikeouts in 16 games with Portland of the Class AAA Pacific Coast League.

In San Diego’s perfect world, Greene and Barfield will be their starting double play combination in 2005. Greene has been very impressive, moving quickly from being drafted last June to being in Class AAA right now. One potential issue is that he doesn’t have very good plate discipline. He’s only drawn one walk in 16 games at Portland, but his OBP is a lot higher than his batting average because he’s been hit by seven pitches already.

P - Neal Cotts, CWS

Cotts was drafted in the second round in 2001 by Oakland. He’s 23 years old, 6-2 and 200 pounds and throws left-handed.

Last year, he had a 4.12 ERA with 178 strikeouts (11.64 K/9IP), 87 walks (2.05 K/BB) and five home runs allowed in 137.2 innings for Modesto of the Class A California League with Oakland. This year, with Chicago, he has a 1.98 ERA with 89 strikeouts (12.58 K/9IP), 38 walks (2.34 K/BB) and two homers allowed in 63.2 innings for Birmingham of the Class AA Southern League.

Cotts’ strikeout rates are very promising, but it would probably help him if he could cut down on the walks a little bit.

P - J.D. Durbin, MIN

The Twins took Durbin in the second round in 2001. He’s 21 years old, 6-0 and 188 pounds and throws right-handed.

He had a 3.19 ERA with 163 strikeouts (9.11 K/9IP), 51 walks (3.20 K/BB) and 14 homers allowed in 161 innings last year for Quad City of the Class A Midwest League. This year, he had a 3.09 ERA with 69 strikeouts (7.11 K/9IP), 22 walks (3.14 K/BB) and three home runs allowed in 87.1 innings at Fort Myers of the Class A Florida State League. He currently has a 2.57 ERA with six strikeouts, four walks and a home run allowed in 14 innings for New Britain of the Class AA Eastern League.

Durbin was very good last year for Quad City. His strikeout rate dipped a lot this season at Fort Myers, which is a concern, but he also walked fewer batters. He’s probably going to need to at least keep his strikeout rate around where it was at Fort Myers.

P - Gavin Floyd, PHI

The Phillies took Floyd in the first round (14th overall) in 2001. He’s 20 years old, 6-5 and 210 pounds and throws right-handed.

Last year, he had a 2.77 ERA with 140 strikeouts (7.59 K/9IP), 64 walks (2.19 K/BB) and 13 homers allowed in 166 innings for Lakewood of the Class A South Atlantic League. This year, he has a 2.73 ERA with 77 strikeouts (7.79 K/9IP), 33 walks (2.33 K/BB) and five homers allowed in 89 innings at Clearwater of the Class A Florida State League.

Floyd’s strikeout and walk rates weren’t tremendous, but he’s improved them both slightly while moving up a level.

P - Zack Greinke, KC

The Royals picked Greinke in the first round (sixth overall) last year. He’s 19 years old, 6-2 and 190 pounds and throws right-handed.

Greinke pitched just 10.1 innings of pro ball last year, allowing five earned runs with nine strikeouts and three walks. This year, he has a 1.32 ERA with 69 strikeouts (8.28 K/9IP), 12 walks (5.75 K/BB) and five home runs allowed in 75 innings for Wilmington of the Class A Carolina League.

Greinke’s strikeout rate is good and his walk rate is very good. He’s just 19 and could become a special pitcher if he continues to progress and stays healthy.

P - Danny Haren, STL

The Cardinals selected Haren in the second round in 2001. He’s 22 years old, 6-5 and 220 pounds and throws right-handed.

Haren has moved quickly the last two years. Last year, he posted a 1.95 ERA with 89 strikeouts (7.88 K/9IP), 12 walks (7.33 K/BB) and six homers allowed in 101.2 innings at Peoria of the Class A Midwest League. He then had a 3.62 ERA with 82 strikeouts (8.02 K/9IP), 19 walks (4.32 K/BB) and eight homers allowed in 92 innings at Potomac of the Class A Carolina League.

This year, Haren started at Tennessee of the Class AA Southern League and posted a 0.82 ERA with 49 strikeouts (8.02 K/9IP), six walks (8.17 K/BB) and two homers allowed in 55 innings. He currently has a 4.93 ERA with 35 strikeouts (6.90 K/9IP), eight walks (4.38 K/BB) and six homers allowed in 45.2 innings for Memphis of the Class AAA Pacific Coast League.

After holding steady at the first of those three levels, Haren’s strikeout rate dropped some when he moved to Class AAA. However, he’s still not walking people -- only 45 walks in nearly 300 innings this year and last year -- which is a good sign.

P - Edwin Jackson, LA

The Dodgers picked Jackson in the sixth round in 2001. He’s 19 years old, 6-3 and 190 pounds and he throws right-handed.

He had a 1.98 ERA with 85 strikeouts (7.31 K/9IP), 33 walks (2.58 K/BB) and two homers allowed in 104.2 innings last year at South Georgia of the Class A South Atlantic League. He currently has a 2.95 ERA with 85 strikeouts (9.29 K/9IP), 32 walks (2.66 K/BB) and four homers allowed in 82.1 innings for Jacksonville of the Class AA Southern League.

Jackson had pretty good strikeout and walk rates last year, and he’s striking out more hitters this year. Of course, he’s also walking more hitters and allowing a few more homers. At 19 and in Class AA with good results, he looks like a nice pitcher to have in the system.

P - Preston Larrison, DET

The Tigers took Larrison in the second round in 2001. He’s 22 years old, 6-4 and 215 pounds and throws right-handed.

He had a 2.39 ERA with 92 strikeouts (6.88 K/9IP), 45 walks (2.04 K/BB) and six homers allowed in 120.1 innings last year at Lakeland of the Class A Florida State League. He currently has a 4.66 ERA with 37 strikeouts (4.54 K/9IP), 36 walks (1.03 K/BB) and five homers allowed in 73.1 innings for Erie of the Class AA Eastern League.

Last year, Larrison got good results despite less-than-stellar strikeout and walk rates. This year, his strikeout and walk rates are both bad and the results reflect that. I’m not real sure why he’s on the team.

P - John Maine, BAL

The Orioles picked Maine in the sixth round last year. He’s 22 years old, 6-4 and 180 pounds and throws right-handed.

Last year, he allowed seven earned runs with 60 strikeouts, seven walks and no homers allowed in 43.1 innings in pro ball. This year, he has a 1.53 ERA with 108 strikeouts (12.73 K/9IP), 18 walks (6 K/BB) and one home run allowed in 76.1 innings at Delmarva of the Class A South Atlantic League.

Maine’s numbers this year are just outstanding. Coming out of college, he could move up quickly and it wouldn’t really surprise me if he’s in Baltimore’s rotation in 2005, or even late next year.

P - Clint Nageotte, SEA

The Mariners selected Nageotte in the fifth round in 1999. He’s 22 years old, 6-3 and 200 pounds and throws right-handed.

Last year, Nageotte had a 4.54 ERA with 214 strikeouts (11.7 K/9IP), 68 walks (3.15 K/BB) and 10 homers allowed in 164.2 innings for San Bernardino of the Class A California League. This year, he has a 2.89 ERA with 87 strikeouts (9.32 K/9IP), 37 walks (2.35 K/BB) and four homers allowed in 84 innings for San Antonio of the Class AA Texas League.

Nageotte’s strikeout rate has dropped from it’s excellent level last year and is now merely good. He’s the only player on the U.S. roster drafted before 2000.

P - Royce Ring, CWS

The White Sox took Ring in the first round (18th overall) last year. He’s 22 years old, 6-5 and 220 pounds and throws left-handed.

He allowed 10 earned runs with 31 strikeouts and 11 walks in 28 innings of pro ball last year. This year, he has a 2.41 ERA with 41 strikeouts (10.96 K/9IP), 12 walks (3.42 K/BB) and one homer allowed in 33.2 innings at Birmingham of the Class AA Southern League.

He looks really good so far and could move up the majors quickly if his success continues. That’s the nice thing about college players. They can come in at a higher level and move more quickly than high schoolers.

P - John VanBenschoten, PIT

The Pirates picked VanBenschoten in the first round (18th overall) in 2001. He’s 23 years old, 6-4 and 215 pounds and throws right-handed.

Last year, he had a 2.80 ERA with 145 strikeouts (8.82 K/9IP) and 62 walks (2.34 K/BB) in 148 innings for Hickory of the Class A South Atlantic League. He started this year at Lynchburg of the Class A Carolina League, where he had a 2.22 ERA with 49 strikeouts (9.06 K/9IP), 18 walks (2.72 K/BB) and one home run allowed in 48.2 innings. He currently has a 2.08 ERA with 26 strikeouts (9 K/9IP), nine walks (2.89 K/9IP) and no homers allowed in 26 innings at Altoona of the Class AA Eastern League.

VanBenschoten has very good strikeout rates at all three levels and has improved his walk rates at each level, which is a great sign. Another example of a college player being able to move quickly, and he’ll probably be in the majors at some point next year.

So, that takes care of the U.S. roster. I’ll try and get my look at the World roster up tomorrow night, but I may need to push it back until Sunday. Either way, I’ll have at least one normal post at some point tomorrow.

Orioles have promise

Don't laught, it's true. I'm not talking about promise for this year. Even with their two wins in a row, the Orioles are 35-40 and have pretty much no shot at competing this year. No, I'm talking about promise for the future. The very near future.

I believe that if they go about it the right way, the Orioles could put together a team that would contend for a winning record next year and contend for a playoff spot in 2004 or 2005.

What makes me say that? Well, the Orioles have the building blocks for what could be a pretty good offense. With the players they already have, I think they're two-thirds of the way there. It's true that Baltimore is currently tied for fifth in the AL in runs scored, so you might say they already have a pretty good offense, but they could do better. Let's take a look.

Before I get into that, I need to mention how much I hate blogger. Apparently you can't make long posts anymore, so I've broken this post up into two parts. Just keep scrolling down when you reach the end of this part and you'll see the second half of the post. Sorry if it looks weird. Hopefully blogger will rectify this soon, but I'm not holding my breath.

The first player I want to mention is Luis Matos. He's a 24-year-old centerfielder who is hitting .339/.378/.527 (.905) with nine doubles, four home runs, seven walks, 21 strikeouts and eight steals in 10 attemtps in 27 games for the Orioles. He started the year at Class AAA Ottawa, where he hit .303/.347/.457 (.804) with 16 doubles, four triples, a home run, 13 walks, 34 strikeouts and six steals in seven attempts in 45 games. Last year, he hit .275/.370/.482 (.852) with 14 steals in 18 attempts in 62 games at Class AA Bowie.

This kid can hit, he can steal bases well and he seems to have pretty decent range. He needs to work on drawing more walks, but he should be a valuable part of Baltimore's offense in the years to come.

Jay Gibbons is hitting .287/.356/.500 (.856) with 19 doubles, 13 home runs, 29 walks and 36 strikeouts in 73 games. I already wrote about the 26-year-old right fielder here and I stand by what I said.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is currently hurt, but the 27-year-old second baseman was hitting .287/.387/.382 (.769) with seven doubles, a triple, two home runs, 21 walks, 19 strikeouts and 14 steals in 19 attempts in 42 games before the injury. I especially like those walk and steal numbers.

Hairston hit .291/.355/.422 (.777) with 17 doubles, two triples, four home runs, 23 walks, 28 strikeouts and 12 steals in 16 attempts after the All-Star break last year, so it looks like he's finally figured out what he needs to do to be a valuable leadoff hitter.

Brian Roberts is hitting .273/.347/.409 (.756) with seven doubles, three home runs, 15 walks, 16 strikeouts and six steals in seven attempts as Hairston's replacement. He was hitting .315/.401/.399 (.800) with 13 doubles, 27 walks, 12 strikeouts and 19 steals in 25 attempts in 44 games at Ottawa.

Larry Bigbie has played 22 games each for Baltimore and Ottawa this year. For the Orioles, he hit .239/.316/.328 (.644) with three doubles, a home run, eight walks and 15 strikeouts in 67 at-bats. For the Lynx, he hit .333/.406/.560 (.966) with seven doubles, three triples, two home runs, 10 walks and 24 strikeouts in 84 at-bats. It's disappointing that he's struggled with Baltimore, but it's encouraging that he did a better job of controlling the strike zone (same walk rate, but much fewer strikeouts).

Bigbie is a bit injury prone and he hasn't done well in his brief stints in the majors, but I still think he can be a quality hitter for the Orioles.

Finally, we have Jack Cust. Cust is hitting .264/.412/.398 (.810) with 13 doubles, six home runs, 59 walks and 68 strikeouts in 68 games for Ottawa. Cust isn't exactly the prettiest of prospects. He doesn't hit for a high average, he strikes out a ton and he can't play defense. But look at these two very important numbers -- 59 walks and .412 OBP.

How Jack Cust hasn't gotten onto Billy Beane's wish list is beyong me. He is the prototypical A's player -- ugly on defense and some warts on offense, but an OBP machine. David Pinto at Baseball Musings was saying that he doesn't understand why teams are reluctant to turn good young hitters into major-league DH's. Cust is a perfect example of this. He's played 51 games in the outfield for Ottawa, but probably isn't really good enough to play there. The Orioles should just bring him up and stick him at DH.

So those are the six I would build Baltimore's offense around. Hairston and Roberts in the middle infield with an outfield of Bigbie in left, Matos in center and Gibbons in right and Cust DHing. That leaves first base, third base and catcher. Just look at the Red Sox with Kevin Millar and David Ortiz and you can see you don't need to break the bank to get a first baseman who can hit.

For third base, the Orioles could give some of their minor leaguers a shot, try to trade for one or sign somebody in the offseason. The rest of the offense isn't real expensive, so they could splurge on a third baseman. As for catcher, well, if you're going to carry a bad offensive player, catcher's probably the place to do it.

You've probably noticed that I ignored a couple of guys on Baltimore's offense and that I haven't talked about the pitching staff at all. Well, that's because I'd tear the pitching staff apart and start over.

First, you root for Juan Gonzalez to reject his trade to the Expos. See, you know Montreal GM Omar Minaya doesn't care much for OBP and you know he wants to add somebody to help his offense and you know he'll give up prospects if you pay the salary of the player you trade him and it just so happens that the Orioles have a "run producer" at a position where the Expos have a black hole.

Tony Batista is only hitting .259/.295/.457 (.732), but he's on pace for 28 home runs and 110 RBI. You think Minaya doesn't look at his third base situation and think, "I could use a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy here?"

Dangle Batista and see if he'll give up two pitching prospects for him. If he says he can only give you one, agree to the trade and try not to laugh until you've hung up the phone. If Gonzalez agrees to go to Montreal and/or Minaya doesn't want Batista, see if the Cubs or Dodgers are interested.

Next, trade Melvin Mora. I don't know who is interested or what you could get, but there's got to be a market for a player hitting as well as Mora is who can play as many positions as he can.

Why would you trade somebody hitting .366/.467/.601 (1.068)? Because he's 31 years old and he's never given any indication he could do anything remotely resembling this. If the Orioles were in the playoff hunt, I might consider keeping him and seeing if he can ride this hot streak through the end of the year. But to think that he can keep hitting well the rest of this year and then duplicate it next year is asking too much. Trade him for the best package of pitching prospects you can get.

Trade Buddy Groom and Jason Johnson. Groom has a 5.87 Era and a 1.43 WHIP, but at least one team will remember his 1.60 ERA from last year and think he can help. Johnson has a decent 4.08 ERA in 75 innings, but his other numbers (1.45 WHIP, 49 strikeouts, 25 walks and 10 homers) are very scary.

Finally, trade Sidney Ponson, unless you can sign him to a reasonable deal right now. he's 26 years old and having his best season at 10-5, 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 73 strikeouts (6.38 K/9IP) and 32 walks (2.28 K/BB) in 103 innings. He'll be a free agent at the end of the year, but some contender would love to have him for the stretch run.

For the rest of this year and next year, you build you pitching staff around Jorge Julio as your closer and young pitchers from the farm system or from the trades for the rotation.

The Orioles don't have any tremendous pitching prospects in the high minors, but Erik Bedard, Eric Dubose, Matt Riley (still only 24 years old), Brian Forystek, John Parrish and Aaron Rakers could all help. If you can get five or six young pitchers in the deadline trades, then you'd have a dozen arms to try and build a rotation from next year.

I'll be interested to watch and see whether the Orioles do any of the things I think they should over the next couple months. Hopefully they won't, because the last thing I want is a fourth good team in the AL East.

Annoyingly good

No, the title of this post does not refer to the service I get from blogger. That just falls under the plain old annoying category. Apparently, when I tried to make a post around 2 p.m. and was told that my blog was being switched to a new-and-improved system that should be ready in a couple hours, they meant that I'd be able to post again at 3 a.m. Anyway, I wanted to make this post 13 hours ago, but I'm going to make it now because I already looked everything up.

Esteban Loaiza'a season is getting to the point where it's actually pissing me off because it defies all logic. Tuesday night, Loaiza allowed one run (unearned) on six hits and a walk with six strikeouts in eight innings.

He's now 11-2 with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 90 strikeouts (7.48 K/9IP) and 25 walks (3.46 K/BB). He's easily been the best starter in the American League and should start for the AL squad in the All-Star game unless he has a rough outing or two between now and then.

Before this season, Loaiza was 69-73 with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP with 758 strikeouts (5.44 K/9IP) and 357 walks (2.12 K/BB). He had never had an ERA below 4.29, never had a WHIP below 1.37, never had a K/9IP above 6.2 and never had a K/BB above 2.75.

In short, he's never shown any indication that he's more than a mediocre pitcher, if he's even that. Now, at age 31, he's suddenly a Cy Young candidate.

Maybe I'm just bitter because I had Loaiza on a fantasy team and I traded him from Carl Everett because I had so little faith in his newfound success.

One interesting thing to think about is what the reaction would have been had you told somebody this offseason that Loaiza would have a sub-2.00 ERA and 11 wins on June 25th. After the person you told stopped laughing at you, he/she might have said something like, "If that's true, then the White Sox will lead the AL Central by at least five games by then."

Of course, it is true, but the White Sox trail both the Kansas City Royals and the Minnesota Twins by 5.5 games in the AL Central race. Part of the problem is that the two pitchers the White Sox expected to be their aces simply haven't been.

Last year, Bartolo Colon and Mark Buehrle combined to go 39-20 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with 5.29 K/9IP and 2.16 K/BB over 472.1 innings. This year, they are 10-17 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 5.41 K/9IP and 1.93 K/BB over 221.1 innings.

As you can see by looking at their numbers, their peripheral stats aren't much worse, but their ERA is more than a run higher. Well, give their strikeout and walk ratios, Colon and Buehrle were probably getting a bit lucky last year. Maybe they're getting a bit unlucky this year. Or maybe there's another important stat I left out.

Last year, Colon and Buehrle allowed a home run every 10.5 innings. This year, they're allowing one every 7.9 innings.

So, the extra home runs combined with a few extra walks combined with a little bit of bad luck (by my math, they allowed a .306 batting average on balls in play last year and are allowing a .322 average on balls in play this year) have combined to cost Colon and Buehrle about a run every nine innings.

Of course, the pitching staff isn't the real problem. Chicago has a 4.16 ERA, which is good for fourth in the AL. The problem is that the offense has scored fewer runs than every team except Detroit.

Everybody knows that Paul Konerko has hurt his offense more than any other player in baseball, hitting .191/.268/.275 (.542) in 66 games at a position that's supposed to provide a lot of offense. And everybody knows that Joe Crede is hitting .234/.275/.349 (.624) in 71 games after hitting .285/.311/.515 (.826) in 53 games last year.

However, nobody seems to be talking about Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez hit .315/.371/.546 (.917) in 153 games in 2000 and followed that up by hitting .305/.382/.533 (.915) in 160 games in 2001. Last year, Ordonez took another step up, hitting .320/.381/.597 (.978). He also had 38 home runs and 135 RBI after averaging 31 homers and about 119 RBI the previous three seasons.

This year, however, Ordonez is hitting just .280/.349/.486 (.835) and is on pace for just 25 home runs and 88 RBI. When you have three different players hitting well below what you expected them to, it can't be a shock that your offense can't score any runs.

Cyclin' man

As I'm sure you all know, Brad Wilkerson hit for the cycle yesterday. He became the fifth Montreal Expos player to hit for the cycle and the fifth player ever to do it in order. He bunted for a single in the second, doubled off the right-field wall in the fifth, tripled in the sixth and homered to center in the seventh.

He was the first player to hit for the cycle this season, which shows you just how overrated hitting for the cycle is.

If you can think all the way back to May 6th, you might remember a pretty nice game by Dmitri Young. When Young came to the plate in the ninth inning of that game, he had already hit a single, a triple and two home runs. Needing just a double for the cycle, Young drove the ball to deep left center and tore off around the bases flying into second base -- and then flying right on past and going to third for his second triple of the game.

So, instead of stopping and taking the cycle, Young went for the extra base to help his team out. His triple had driven in the go-ahead run, but he would be more likely to score an insurance run from third than from second (he ended up not scoring, but Detroit did win).

This is why, of all the revered feats in baseball that are at least a little overrated (winning the batting title, hitting for the Triple Crown, throwing a no-hitter, etc.), hitting for the cycle is the most overrated. While accomplishing any of these other things, there is no point where you can decide to not accomplish the actual feat and instead do something better.

The only similar thing I can think of is if you have a long batting streak and you're ahead 3-0 in the count in what's definitely your last at-bat of the game and instead of swinging at a ball, you take the walk and end your hitting streak. But even there, if you swing at the ball there's no guarantee you'll extend your streak and there's no guarantee that a walk's better than what you might have done had you hit the ball.

With Young's game, it was pretty clear. If he stopped on second, he would have hit for the cycle. But he didn't stop because he wanted to do more to help his team win and a triple's definitely better than a double. So, when somebody looks up the cycles from 2003 down the road, they'll see Wilkerson's name because he had a very good and very rare game. But they won't see Young's name, because he decided to do even better.

Hot hitters

With six days left in June, there are four hitters with at least 75 at-bats who are hitting at least .425 this month. All four of them continued their hot-hitting ways last night.

Nomar Garciaparra went 5-for-5 (all singles) with three runs scored to improve to .430 (40-for-93) for the month. In June he has a .465 OBP and .645 SLG for a 1.111 OPS.

Nomar has three four-hit games this season, all in the last 10 days. He went 5-for-5 last night, 6-for-6 with a walk on Saturday and 4-for-6 with three doubles and a triple on June 15th.

For the season, he's batting .344/.376/.580 (.957). His batting average is third in the AL, his SLG is fifth and his OPS is ninth. he was hitting .248 on April 26th and is hitting .389 since then.

Albert Pujols went 3-for-6 with a double and a walk to improve to .444 (40-for-90) for the month. He has a .505 OBP and a .756 SLG for a 1.260 OPS in June. Amazingly, that's not that much better than his other months.

In April, he hit .385/.462/.708 (1.170). In May, he hit .345/.394/.707 (1.101). For the season, he's hitting .387/.450/.719 (1.169). He's first in the NL in batting, third in OBP, first in SLG and first in OPS. He has enjoyed hitting at Busch tremendously. Pujols is hitting .432/.481/.791 (1.272) at home and .341/.420/.644 (1.016) on the road.

Ichiro Suzuki went 2-for-4 with a double last night to improve to .465 (40-for-86). He has a .489 OBP and a .640 SLG (1.128 OPS) in the month.

Ichiro did not get a hit his first game in June, bat has hit in all 19 games since then. Three of those have been four-hit games and 14 of them have been multi-hit games. Ichiro is hitting an amazing .488 over his hitting streak.

Whereas Pujols has been steadily great this season, Ichiro has been improving dramatically every month. In April, he hit .243/.317/.306 (.623). In May, he hit .389/.415/.558 (.973). For the season, he's hitting .58/.399/.490 (.889) and is second in the AL in batting.

The strangest thing about Ichiro this season is his left-right splits. He bats lefthanded, but is hitting .417 (45-for-108) against lefties and "only" .327 (66-for-202) against righties. During his first two seasons, he hit .336 against both types of pitchers. He did have a slightly higher OBP/SLG/OPS against righties those seasons (.387/.443/.830) than against lefties (.379/.438/.817).

This year, those numbers are .447/.481/.928 against lefties and .373/.495/.868 against righties. The difference is that he's hitting a ton more singles and doubles against lefties (38 and 7 in 108 ABs compared to 49 and 7 in 202 ABs against righties) and much more power against righties (seven homers and three triples compared to none of each against lefties).

Finally, Corey Koskie went 2-for-4 last night to improve to .427 (32-for-75). He has a .511 OBP and a .667 SLG for a 1.178 OPS this month.

Koskie's reputation as a hitter (not that he's bad, he's actually very underrated) isn't the only reason he's the most surprising name on this list. There's also the fact that he hit under .260 in each of the first two months.

In April, he hit .259/.365/.457 (.822). In May, he hit .252/.352/.398 (.750). For the season, he's hitting .305/.403/.494 (.897) and his OBP ranks 10th in the AL.

Is it really that surprising that four players are hitting this well this June?

Well, in May, nobody with more than 35 at-bats hit better than 425. Bill Mueller hit .418 (38-for-91) and had a .454 OBP and a .648 SLG for a 1.102 OPS.

In April, nobody with more than 45 at-bats even topped .400. Brad Fullmer hit .395 (30-for-76) and had a .447 OBP and a .645 SLG for a 1.092 OPS.

Of course, there's no guarantee anyobdy will hit over .425 (or even .400) in June either. Any of the four players currently doing so would fall below .400 with a few hitless games. However, hitless games have been pretty hard to come by recently with those four.

The trade gets worse

Alex Cintron went 3-for-6 with a home run yesterday and is now hitting .326/.367/.578 with seven homers in 36 games for Arizona. The 24-year-old was making his 10th start at third base and has also made 16 starts at shortstop and five starts at second base.

Before getting called up, Cintron was hitting .393/.435/.489 in 26 games at Class AAA Tucson while playing mostly shortstop. Granted, he never hit this well before this season, but since he's only 24 it's possible that he was just being moved up too quickly.

Chad Tracy is still at Tucson, hitting .333/.390/.468 in 70 games. The 23-year-old third baseman posted an .882 OPS at Class AA El Paso in 129 games last year.

Why are these performances important? Because they make Arizona's trade for Shea Hillenbrand even more absurd.

He's 27 years old and seems to be at the peak of his ability, which isn't saying much. They're both young, can already hit, have room for improvement and can play third base. So, in order to block the paths of one of their two good, young hitters, the Diamondbacks got rid of the pitcher they controlled who had the most future potential. Nice work.

Homer-less Ramirez

I am very intrigued by the performance of Aramis Ramirez this season. As you may now, Ramirez had a very good season in 2001 and then slumped badly last year. You probably have not heard anything about him regaining his 2001 form, but look at his final numbers for 2001 and his projected numbers for this season.

In 2001, Ramirez had a .300 average and .350 OBP with the following counting stats: 158 games, 603 at-bats, 83 runs, 181 hits, 40 doubles, 112 RBI, 40 walks and 100 strikeouts. This year, he has a .296 average and .350 OBP and is on pace for the following counting stats: 158 games, 628 at-bats, 77 runs, 186 hits, 44 doubles, 94 RBI, 46 walks and 107 strikeouts.

Those are pretty similar, huh? Ah, but you probably noticed that I left a couple of stats out. In 2001, Ramirez had a .536 SLG and 34 home runs. This year, he has a .446 SLG and is on pace for 15 home runs.

How did he return to his 2001 level almost exactly in every category besides home runs? Are his other numbers a sign that he's back in form and the homers will come soon? Or is his lack of homers a sign that he's getting some lucky singles and doubles and will slump soon? I have no idea, but I'm interested in finding out.

Note: I plan on making as many of these short posts today as I can, so keep checking back to see what's caught my eye.

Around the Majors

I don't have any particularly great ideas for a long post today, so I'm just going to go around the majors and mentioned things I thought of while looking at each of the 15 games last night.

PIT/MON - I am very intrigued by the performance of Aramis Ramirez. As you may now, Ramirez had a very good season in 2001 and then slumped badly last year. You probably have not heard anything about him regaining his 2001 form, but look at his final numbers for 2001 and his projected numbers for this season.

In 2001, Ramirez had a .300 average and .350 OBP with the following counting stats: 158 games, 603 at-bats, 83 runs, 181 hits, 40 doubles, 112 RBI, 40 walks and 100 strikeouts. This year, he has a .296 average and .350 OBP and is on pace for the following counting stats: 158 games, 628 at-bats, 77 runs, 186 hits, 44 doubles, 94 RBI, 46 walks and 107 strikeouts.

Those are pretty similar, huh? Ah, but you probably noticed that I left a couple of stats out. In 2001, Ramirez had a .536 SLG and 34 home runs. This year, he has a .446 SLG and is on pace for 15 home runs.

How did he return to his 2001 level almost exactly in every category besides home runs? Are his other numbers a sign that he's back in form and the homers will come soon? Or is his lack of homers a sign that he's getting some lucky singles and doubles and will slump soon? I have no idea, but I'm interested in finding out.

DET/BOS - Nomar Garciaparra has three four-hit games this season, and they are all in the last 10 days. He was hitting .248 on April 26th and is batting .389 since then. That's not the craziest stat, though.

Pitcher of the Month

Who has been the best pitcher in the American League this month? Well, there are several pitchers you could make an argument for, and the one you'd have the easiest time arguing for is also the biggest surprise.

On May 24th, Victor Zambrano had a 6.08 ERA. Having struggled as a starter to begin the season and then as a reliever, he was moved back into the starting rotation. On May 29th, he allowed two runs on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 5.2 innings. Since then, he's been awesome.

In each of his last five starts -- all this month -- he's gone at least seven innings and allowed no more than two runs. Over those five starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP with 25 strikeouts and 17 walks in 36 innings.

For the season, he is now 4-4 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 46 strikeouts and 45 walks in 78.1 innings. Zambrano is 27 years old and will turn 28 in early August. Let's take a look at how he got to where he is.

Zambrano was signed as a free agent by Tampa Bay in 1996 after the Yankees signed him in 1993 and never used him. Zambrano barely pitched in 1996 and then pitched about 30 dominant innings in rookie ball in 1997.

In 1998, he had a 3.38 ERA with 89 strikeouts and 20 walks in 77.1 innings. He pitched briefly in Class A in 1999 before being promoted to Class AA, where he had a 4.59 ERA with 81 strikeouts and 38 walks in 82.1 innings.

Zambrano pitched at Class AAA in 2000, posting a 5.03 ERA with 55 strikeouts and 29 walks in 62.2 innings. He returned to AAA to start 2001 and had a 2.08 ERA with 29 strikeouts and 12 walks in 30.1 innings before getting called up. In 51.1 innings with the Devil Rays, he had a 3.16 ERA with 58 strikeouts and 18 walks and looked like a pitcher who could really help Tampa Bay in 2002 at age 26.

Well, last year he had a 5.53 ERA with 73 strikeouts and 68 walks in 114 innings. And it looked like he was heading for an even worse season this year before his recent resurgence (should it just be called a surgence if he's never pitched like this before?).

Can he keep this up? Well, he obviously can't pitch this well all season, but I don't see why he can't be a good starter. He usually had good strikeout rates in his career and he's been able to succeed when he's kept his walks somewhat in check.

The thing is, he's not keeping his walks in check. During this spectacular five-start stretch, he's walked 4.25 batters per nine innings and has amazingly allowed more walks (17) than hits (15). Granted, 4.25 is better than the 5.91 BB/9IP rate he had before this stretch, but it's still not very good. If some more balls start falling in for hits and he doesn't cut the walks down, he could be in for some rough outings.

In the meantime, the Devil Rays and their fans should enjoy what is probably already one of the best stretches of dominant pitching in franchise history.

These guys are good

On Saturday, David Pinto suggested that this year's Toronto offense could be better that that of the back-to-back World Series champions. This piqued my interest, so I decided I'd go take a look at that team compared to this team. First, here are the main players at each position for the 1992/93 team and the main player at each position for this year's team. (Sorry for all the blank space between here and the table below, I'm too tired to try and make it work right).

Pos.	1992/93	2003
C	Pat Borders	Greg Myers/ Tom Wilson
1B	John Olerud	Carlos Delgado
2B	Roberto Alomar	Orlando Hudson
3B	Kelly Gruber/ Ed Sprague	Eric Hinske
SS	Manuel Lee/ Tony Fernandez	Chris Woodward
OF	Devon White	Vernon Wells
OF	Joe Carter	Frank Catalanotto
OF	Candy Maldanado/ Turner Ward	Shannon Stewart
DH	Dave Winfield/ Paul Molitor	Josh Phelps

Now, just by looking at the runs scored numbers we can tell that this year's Toronto offense has been better than the offense was in 1992 and 1993.

In both year, the Blue Jays were second in the league in runs scored to Detroit. In 1992, the Blue Jays scored 4.81 runs per game, which was about 11.5-percent better than the 4.32 runs per game the average AL team scored. In 1993, the Blue Jays scored 5.23 runs per game, which was about 11-percent better than the 4.71 runs per game the average AL team scored. For the two years combined, the Blue Jays scored 5.02 runs per game, which was 11.3-percent better than the 4.51 runs per game the average AL team scored.

This year, the Blue Jays lead the AL in scoring by a decent margin. They are scoring 6.15 runs per game, which is about 25.75-percent better than the 4.89 runs per game the average AL team is scoring. No other team is scoring more than six runs per game, the Red Sox are second in the league at 5.99 runs per game.

Now, let's look through the players at each position. I want to do two things here. First, compare this year's main players to the main players from 1992 and 1993. Second, ask whether this year's players are likely to maintain this level of production and give the Blue Jays a shot at having back-to-back excellent offensive seasons like they did in 1992 and 1993.

First, I have a couple of things to mention. I'm not going to link to any of the players because it's 3 a.m. and I don't want to stay up too late. Also, the stats I mention may not be absolutely, 100-percent accurate. If not, they're at least very close to 100-percent correct and that's good enough for the purposes of this post. Let's get started then.

Catcher

Pat Borders was Toronto's primary catcher in both 1992 and 1993. His counting numbers are remarkably similar for the two seasons, but he was clearly a better hitting in 1992. If you average his two seasons, you get the following:

.248/.287/.378, 138 games, 484 at-bats, 43 runs, 120 hits, 28 doubles, one triple, 11 home runs, 54 RBI, 27 walks and 71 strikeouts.

He was below average as a hitter in both seasons, but they were two of his three best seasons. 1990, when he played 125 games and had a 124 OPS+, was easily his best season.

This year, the Blue Jays have used a pretty strict platoon behind the plate. Greg Myers, who is hitting .365/.448/.591, has seen most of the time against righthanded pitchers and Tom Wilson, who is hitting .293/.410/.541, has seen mostly lefties. Between the two of them, they're on pace to hit .332/.410/.541 in 630 at-bats with 112 runs, 210 hits, 54 doubles, 26 home runs, 108 RBI, 84 walks and 164 strikeouts. That is amazing production out of your catching tandem.

Can these two continue to hit like this? Well, Aaron Gleeman has written rather extensively about Toronto's catchers and he does not think they can. I would have to agree with him. Myers is a 37-year-old who has never had more than 330 at-bats and has never had an OPS higher than .760 and Wilson is a 32-year-old with fewer than 300 major-league at-bats in his career coming into this season. I suppose it's possible that they keep this up the rest of the year (Myers has gotten better every month, after all -- .802 OPS in April, 1.065 in May and 1.234 so far in June), but it's very unlikely that they'd be able to do it again next year.

First base

John Olerud played first both years for the Blue Jays. He had a pretty good season in 1992 and an amazing season in 1993. Averaged together, his numbers look like this:

.327/.429/.531, 148 games, 505 at-bats, 89 runs, 165 hits, 41 doubles, one triple, 20 home runs, 87 RBI, 92 walks and 63 strikeouts.

Carlos Delgado is once again the primary first baseman for the Blue Jays this year. He's hitting .305/.430/.628 and is on pace for 581 at-bats, 134 runs, 177 hits, 45 doubles, 48 homers, 164 RBI, 112 walks and 134 strikeouts. He hasn't been quite as good as Olerud was in 1993, but he's better than Olerud was overall for those two seasons.

Also, there's no reason to believe that Delgado can't keep this up. He's coming off five straight seasons with a .948 OPS or better and, at age 30, his skills shouldn't really be declining yet.

Second Base

Roberto Alomar was Toronto's second baseman both years. He was very good both seasons, but slightly better in 1993. Here is what his numbers look like if you average the two seasons:

.318/.406/.460, 153 games, 580 at-bats, 107 runs, 185 hits, 31 doubles, seven triples, 13 homers, 85 RBI, 84 walks, 60 strikeouts and 52 steals in 64 attempts.

Orlando Hudson is hitting .297/.349/.432 as Toronto's primary second baseman this year. He is on pace for 138 games, 510 at-bats, 67 runs, 151 hits, 24 doubles, six triples, 11 home runs, 73 RBI, 37 walks, 91 strikeouts and nine steals in 13 attempts.

He's obviously not as good as Alomar was 10 years ago, but he's a good player with the potential to get much better. This is his first full season in the big leagues and he put up some promising numbers in the minors. The biggest difference between Hudson and Alomar (aside from Alomar's skill on the basepaths) is that Hudson does not have the plate disciplane Alomar had. If he can work on that, he will improve very quickly.

Third Base

In 1992, Kelly Gruber was awful for the Blue Jays at the hot corner. In 1993, Ed Sprague was merely below average here. Together, their average numbers look like this:

.246/.294/.371, 135 games, 496 at-bats, 46 runs, 122 hits, 24 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs, 58 RBI, 29 walks and 79 strikeouts.

Even though he's been out injured for awhile, Eric Hinske has still seen most of the action at third base this year. He was hitting .232/.322/.387 and would be on pace for 95 games, 335 at-bats, 48 runs, 78 hits, 39 doubles, four home runs, 45 RBI, 45 walks and 89 strikeouts. As bad as he was before getting hurt, he was about as good as Sprague was in 1993 and much better than Gruber was in 1992.

As most of you probably know, Hinske was the AL Rookie of the Year last year. He's only 25 years old, so he should be an asset for Toronto's offense in the years to come. Maybe he's not as good a hitter as he showed last year, but he should definitely be better than he was earlier this year.

Shortstop

Manuel Lee took most of the playing time here in 1992 and Tony Fernandez got the job after coming over during the 1993 season from the Mets. The numbers are going to look weird because Fernandez came over mid-season, but here are their two years averaged together.

.283/.352/.375, 111 games, 375 at-bats, 47 runs, 106 hits, 14 doubles, five triples, four homers, 45 RBI, 41 walks, 50 strikeouts and 11 steals in 16 attempts.

Lee was just about average offensively for a shortstop in 1992, but Fernandez was really rather good in his time with the Blue Jays.

Chris Woodward has been the primary shortstop this season and is hitting .276/.339/.421. He's on pace for 130 games, 462 at-bats, 73 runs, 127 hits, 26 doubles, four triples, 11 home runs, 60 RBI, 45 walks and 93 strikeouts. He's clearly better than Lee was and clearly not as good as Fernandez was. He's probably about the same as what Lee and Fernandez would have averaged had they both played full seasons in Toronto.

Woodward hit almost exactly this well in 90 games for the Blue Jays last year and he doesn't turn 27 until later this month, so there's no reason to think this production is more than he's capable of.

Center Field

Devon White patrolled center field both seasons for Toronto. His average numbers looked like this:

.260/.322/.413, 150 games, 620 at-bats, 107 runs, 161 hits, 34 doubles, seven triples, 16 home runs, 56 RBI, 52 walks, 130 strikeouts and 36 steals in 40 attemtps.

This year, Vernon Wells has played every game for the Blue Jays and is hitting .308/.352/.579. He's on pace for 162 games, 687 at-bats, 127 runs, 212 hits, 54 doubles, four triples, 41 home runs, 153 RBI, 45 walks and 84 strikeouts.

White was a good offensive centerfielder. Wells is quickly becoming a great offensive centerfielder. He's 24 years old, excelled in the minors and has made a tremendous leap up from a decent showing in his first full season. He will be a big part of this offense at least through 2007.

Right Field

This is where Joe Carter spent most of his time those two seasons. His average for those two year was something like:

.259/.311/.494, 157 games, 613 at-bats, 95 runs, 159 hits, 32 doubles, six triples, 34 homers, 120 RBI, 42 walks, 111 strikeouts and 10 steals in 14 attempts.

Frank Catalanotto has been the primary rightfielder this season and is hitting .308/.353/.495. He's on pace for 149 games, 603 at-bats, 117 runs, 186 hits, 50 doubles, nine triples, 15 home runs, 85 RBI, 37 walks and 80 strikeouts.

Catalanotto's numbers so far this year have been at least as good as Carter's were for those two seasons. Is this a fluke for Catalanotto? Not really. When he's been healthy and given a chance to play every day, he's shown that he can hit for a good average with decent patience and decent power. He's 29 years old, and should be able to continue to help the Blue Jays offense next year if he's still in Toronto.

Left Field

You might be wondering why I'm doing left field after center and right. Well, it's because this position presents the biggest problem. Candy Maldanado played almost full-time in 1992, but 1993 was a different story. Other than White and Carter, no outfielder got more than 200 at-bats. Turner Ward and Dernell Coles combined played almost as much as Maldanado the year before, so I put their numbers together to come with an average that looks like this:

.252/.334/.412, 137 games, 425 at-bats, 55 runs, 102 hits, 19 doubles, four triples, 14 home runs, 60 RBI, 49 walks and 84 strikeouts.

Shannon Stewart is hurt, but has still played the most games here this year (and he should be back soon). He's hitting .300/.355/.441 and is on pace for 110 games, 475 at-bats, 76 runs, 143 hits, 39 doubles, four triples, six home runs, 54 RBI, 45 walks and 45 strikeouts.

Maldanado was actually quite a good hitter and certainly better than Stewart has been, but left field was an absolute dead hole for the Blue Jays in 1993. Stewart is gimpy and getting very expensive, so he almost certainly won't be back next year. He will probably be replace by Jayson Werth, who hasn't gotten much playing time in the big leagues, but hit well in the minor leagues. He's 24 years old and had a .799 OPS in 127 games at AAA last year after posting an .888 OPS in 104 Class AA games in 2001.

Designated Hitter

This is probably where the 1992-1993 Blue Jays get their biggest advantage over the current Blue Jays. Dave Winfield was the DH in 1992 and Paul Molitor took over in 1993. Their average looks like this:

.312/.389/.500, 158 games, 610 at-bats, 107 runs, 190 hits, 35 doubles, four triples, 24 home runs, 110 RBI, 80 walks, 80 strikeouts and 12 steals in 16 attempts.

Josh Phelps has seen most of the time at DH this year and is hitting .269/.360/.445. He's on pace for 143 games, 490 at-bats, 80 runs, 132 hits, 24 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs, 67 RBI, 48 walks and 147 strikeouts.

At 25 years old, Phelps is a promising young hitter, but he cannot match up with Winfield and Molitor. He should be an important part of Toronto's offense in the years to come though.

Summary

I'd say the two teams are pretty even at shortstop and right field and I'd give the 1992-1993 team the advantage at second base and DH. At the other five positions, I think this team is better (considering this year and what I think the team will look like next year). So David is right, this team may very well be better offensively than those World Series teams. I think it will definitely prove to be so and we'll just have to keep watching to see if they are.

Of course, those World Series teams had some decent pitching and this team doesn't have much besides the amazing Roy Halladay, so they might not be quite ready to go out and win the AL East. As a Boston fan, however, I'm getting very worried about the Blue Jays in addition to the Yankees, Mariners and A's.

State of the Red Sox Sunday

Ouch.

That one hurt. A lot.

Everybody's blaming the bullpen, but it should never have gotten to a point where the bullpen could have blown the game.

Pedro Martinez gave the Red Sox seven fabulous innings, allowing one run on four hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. Todd Walker provided Pedro with a 2-1 lead thanks to solo home runs in the third and sixth innings, but Pedro's lead should have been much bigger by the time the bottom of the eighth inning rolled around.

In the top of the sixth, Nomar Garciaparra singled to lead off and, after Manny Ramirez made the first out, Kevin Millar doubled to put runners on second and third with one down. The Phillies decided to intentionally walk Bill Mueller to load the bases for Jason Varitek, who had gone hitless in his last 14 at-bats. Varitek complied nicely, grounding into a double play to end the inning.

In the seventh, the Red Sox again loaded the bases, but this time with two outs. Manny flied out to left field to end the inning.

In the eighth, the Red Sox squandered their best chance to pick up an insurance run or two. Millar doubled to lead off and Mueller singled, advancing to second on the throw while home while Millar stayed at third. So Boston had runners on second and third with NOBODY OUT. Varitek struck out swinging. Damian Jackson struck out swinging. David Ortiz pinch-hit for Pedro, and struck out swinging.

Why was Jackson allowed to hit for himself in this situation? He hasn't gotten a hit this month and he's batting .218 on the season. A fly ball moderately deep in the outfield scores a run, but I think the only way Jackson could get a ball moderately deep in the outfield is to throw it. Anybody who was sitting on Boston's bench at the time (Jeremy Giambi, Trot Nixon, Freddy Sanchez or even Doug Mirabelli) would have been a better choice in that situation.

So, the Red Sox screw up three good scoring chances and then blow Pedro's lead in the eighth. Then they went on to blow a couple more scoring chances, although these chances weren't as good.

Manny grounded into a double play with runners on first and second and one out to end the ninth. Varitek finally ended his hitless streak with a two out double in the 10th, but Nixon stranded him there (hitting for Jackson, two innings too late). When they finally scored again in the 12th, they blew a chance to score more with Millar on third and one out. Giambi pinch-hit for Brandon Lyon and struck out and then Varitek struck out to end the inning.

All told, the Red Sox left 14 men on base, many of them in scoring position. So, you can blame the bullpen if you want, but I'm blaming the offense for this one.

That said, the bullpen did blow it.

I think Tony LaRussa is as full of himself and overrated as anybody else, but he does have a point when he said, "It's a matter of picking who you want to beat you." It's not the point he was trying to make, but he has a point.

On really good offenses, it's hard to say, "We're not going to let this guy beat us" because there are so many great hitters around them. The Phillies looked like they could be one of those offenses this year, but they haven't been.

So, with a one-run lead and two outs in the eighth inning (or the 12th inning), you can say, "We're not going to let Jim Thome beat us."

I'm not saying you intentionally walk him to put the tying run on and bring the winning run to the plate, but you pitch him very carefully. Carefully enough that no pitches actually find there way inside the strike zone. If he helps you out and makes the final out, that's great. If he takes his walk, that's okay too. If he somehow takes a bad pitch over the wall, you tip your cap to him and move on.

I can understand Todd Pratt hitting a game-winning home run. I'm not happy about it, but I can understand it. He's nothing special as a hitter, so you go after him. He caught up to one and won the game. It happens.

I cannot understand letting Thome see anything he could possibly drive over the outfield wall in a situation where he's the tying run. Especially not when Pat Burrell, who's making an out 68.8 percent of the time, is on deck. And especially not when Marlon Byrd who has no home runs and a .352 SLG, is on deck.

I've seen people saying that you can't get mad at Thome hitting a home run because he's a great hitter. That's exactly why you can get mad about it!

If the Red Sox were down 2-1 with two outs in the eighth inning and Manny at the plate, do you think he would have seen anything he could hit?

Anyway, the Red Sox lost and are now 41-31, two games behind the Yankees. Toronto also blew a lead yesterday, so the Red Sox are still tied with the Blue Jays. San Francisco ended Oakland's seven-game winning streak, so the Red Sox are still a game behind the A's. The world is not coming to an end, but games like that sure do have a way of making it seem so. Let's take a look at the team.

The Rotation

Pedro now has a 2.51 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 78 strikeouts and 20 walks in 75.1 innings. In his last 21 innings -- his last start before going on the DL and his three starts since coming off it -- he has allowed just two runs on 17 hits and four walks with 24 strikeouts. He's great, and he looks like he's back to full strength. That's a very good thing.

Derek Lowe now has a 4.57 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. In his last seven starts, he has a 2.96 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with 20 strikeouts and 16 walks. He still needs to get his strikeouts up and his walks down, but he's been on a nice roll.

Tim Wakefield has made two nice starts in a row to get his ERA below 5.00 (4.83) and his WHIP below 1.50 (1.49). In those two starts, he allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits and seven walks with 12 strikeouts in 13 innings. Maybe a healthy dose of wildness is making his pitches harder to hit, maybe it was just 13 innings we can't draw any conclusions from. Whatever, I hope it continues.

In 43 innings with Arizona this year, Byung-Hyun Kim averaged 6.91 K/9IP. In his brief time with Boston, he has averaged 5.14 K/9IP. I liked his last start (two runs on seven hits and two walks with four strikeouts in six innings), but he will need to keep improving his strikeouts rate if he's going to be a successful starter.

John Burkett's last three outings have been surprisingly nice. He has allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 21 hits and five walks with 15 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. He now has a 5.60 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP with 50 strikeouts and 25 walks. You could certainly do worse for a fifth starter. That said, the Red Sox could do better too.

The Bullpen

This is not because of last night, but I hope the Red Sox trade for a good reliever soon. The problem is that they only have three relievers I trust (Lyon, Alan Embree and Mike Timlin) and even those guys aren't spectacular.

Lyon has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP with 35 strikeouts and 12 walks in 39 innings. In his last 7.1 innings, he's allowed zero runs on six hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. He's a nice young reliever and I'm glad we have him, but he's not great yet. By the way, I keep seeing people suggest that Lyon should be a starter. Why? He wasn't any good as a starter. I have two words for you: Eric. Gagne. Some pitchers are just much better in the bullpen than in the rotation. Lyon may be one of them.

Embree has a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP with 23 strikeouts and 10 walks in 27 innings. In his last 7.1 innings, he's allowed zero runs on a hit and four walks with five strikeouts. He seems to be at least most of the way back to where he was last year.

Timlin has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP with 31 strikeouts and three walks in 42.2 innings. He's given up a run in each of his last two appearances, but he's probably been Boston's most steady reliever this year.

Hector Almonte hasn't pitched much, but I haven't liked what I've seen so far. Same goes for Rudy Seanez. Jason Shiell hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been good either. And I can't say anything about Ryan Rupe because he's only made one relief appearance and that was on two days rest after a nice start.

The Lineup

Catcher - Varitek has been absolutely awful the last week, but he's still hitting .276/.350/.510 (.864 OPS) with 10 home runs. He's definitely one of the best catchers in the AL.

First Base - Millar is hitting .305/.371/.547 (.918) with 11 home runs and 48 RBI. He had two doubles and a triple yesterday, but didn't score any runs and only had one RBI. That says a lot about the people hitting around him yesterday.

Second Base - Walker is hitting .310/.357/.445 (.802). He was in a bit of a slump until yesterday, but he's been an important part of the offense all season.

This Base - Mueller is hitting .326/.382/.516 (.899). He's still slumping, but he's also still way above his career numbers.

Shortstop - Nomar is hitting .338/.370/.584 (.953). We're 72 games into the season and he has 103 hits, 21 doubles, 12 triples, 10 home runs, 62 runs and 49 RBI. Also, it's ridiculous to raise your batting average by 14 points in one game this late in the season. It will be Ichiro versus Nomar for the AL batting title.

Left Field - Manny's hitting .311/.411/.558 (.969) with 16 home runs, 57 runs, 56 RBI and 45 walks/23 strikeouts. He's 1-for-13 with two walks since hitting home runs in back-to-back games against the White Sox.

Center Field - Johnny Damon is hitting .257/.321/.404 (.725). He does have 51 runs scored and 14 steals in 16 attempts, but we need more out of him.

Right Field - Nixon is hitting .300/.380/.524 (.904). He's slumping a little bit, but he's still having a great year (even though he still can't hit lefties).

Designated hitter - Ortiz is hitting .293/.374/.480 (.854). He's 0 for his last 11, but has four walks in that time. He'll be okay once he can play everyday again. Giambi is hitting .173/.331/.355 (.685) and may be on the verge of being released. It's a shame too, because this is definitely a fluke. I've never seen anybody with an OBP almost twice as high as his batting average and that's a sign that he's just getting unlucky or pressing too hard because he thinks he needs to make the most of every at-bat. I don't know what it is, but Giambi can hit and he'll do so somewhere else if the Red Sox let him go.

Summary

Despite the fact that they lost last night and have been treading water for awhile, the Red Sox are still a very good team. The problem is that there are two other very good teams in their division and two very good teams in the AL West who want to go to the playoffs as well. Boston will need to do something before the trading deadline, because I think 93 wins would come up short again.